110118 Renewable Energy Asia KE
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SEE APPENDIX I FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS Co. Reg No: 198700034E MICA (P) : 090/11/2009 Renewable energy | 18 January 2011 BUY Renewable Energy Asia Company Update Going through transition Analysts Eric ONG [email protected] (65) 6432 1857 Price $0.255 Target $0.350 ST Index 3,238.63 Historical Chart 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 1 8 ‐ J a n ‐ 1 0 1 5 ‐ F e b ‐ 1 0 1 5 ‐ M a r ‐ 1 0 1 2 ‐ A p r ‐ 1 0 1 0 ‐ M a y ‐ 1 0 0 7 ‐ J u n ‐ 1 0 0 5 ‐ J u l ‐ 1 0 0 2 ‐ A u g ‐ 1 0 3 0 ‐ A u g ‐ 1 0 2 7 S e p 1 0 2 5 O c t 1 0 2 2 ‐ N o v ‐ 1 0 2 0 ‐ D e c ‐ 1 0 1 7 ‐ J a n ‐ 1 1 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 Vol ('000) Price ($) Performance 1m 3m 6m Absolute (%) 30.8 8.5 ‐7.3 Relative (%) 27.3 6.6 ‐15.3 Stock Information Ticker code REA.SI REAG SP Market cap (US$m) 122.8 52‐week high (S$) 0.365 52‐week low (S$) 0.185 Shares issued (m) 620.1 6m avg d.vol (US$m) 1.4 Free float (%) 37.4 Major shareholders (%) Blue Ocean Group ‐ Xu Jian (51.3) Lam Tak Shing (7.5) Key Indicators ROE (%) 27.3 Net gearing (%) 20.2 NTA (RMB) 0.39 Interest cover (x) 32.4 Event Renewable Energy Asia (REA) has entered into a term sheet with the Executive Director, Lam Tak Shing to dispose of its fastening business for $7.6m. We believe this is a move in the right direction that will allow REA to consolidate its resources in the core renewable energy business. We maintain BUY with a new target price of $0.35, now pegged at 11x FY Mar12F PER. Our View The total consideration for the proposed disposal amounts to about $7.6m. This represents a discount of 12.5% to the NTA of its Fastening Companies as at end‐March 2010. Given a possible loss of RMB5.1m that will be charged to the income statement, we have tweaked our FY Mar11 earnings estimate by 19% to RMB39.5m. The disposal is subject to approval by the shareholders. If they give the nod, the deal will be sealed and REA can then focus on its core renewable energy business. The sale proceeds will also come in handy as the cash can be deployed to develop its wind farm projects. Separately, REA has secured a concession to develop a 49.5MW wind farm in Binhai New Area, China. Land and infrastructure resources for the project will be provided by the Jiangsu provincial government. REA, which owns a 49% stake, and Datang Renewable, its JV partner, will be responsible for the construction and subsequent maintenance of the wind farm. The total capex is estimated to be RMB500m, of which 80% will be funded through bank borrowings. Action & Recommendation We lower our target multiple to 11x FY Mar12F PER and trim our target price to $0.35 from $0.40 following Datang Renewable’s lackluster share price performance since its debut on the Hong Kong stock exchange on 17 December 2010. In our view, this seems to suggest waning investor appetite for wind power producers as sentiment is being weighed by sector concerns. With 37% upside potential, we maintain our BUY call. Year End Mar 31 2009 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F Sales (RMB m) 110.9 99.4 505.0 963. 8 1,369.7 Pre‐tax (RMB m) ‐10.0 ‐101.6 52.6 120.6 201.3 Net profit (RMB m) ‐10.5 ‐101.4 39.5 99.5 151.0 EPS (fen) ‐2.0 ‐19.2 6.9 16.0 24.3 EPS growth (%) n.m n.m n.m 91.3 51.1 PER (x) n.m n.m 18.6 8.1 5.3 EV/EBITDA (x) 45.7 4.6 11.4 7.0 4.3 Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Transcript of 110118 Renewable Energy Asia KE
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SEE APPENDIX I FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS Co. Reg No: 198700034E
MICA (P) : 090/11/2009
Renewable energy | 18 January 2011
BUY Renewable Energy Asia
Company Update Going through transition
Analysts Eric ONG
(65) 6432 1857
Price $0.255
Target $0.350
ST Index 3,238.63
Historical Chart
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
1 8
‐ J a n ‐ 1 0
1 5
‐ F e b
‐ 1 0
1 5
‐ M a r ‐ 1 0
1 2
‐ A p r ‐ 1 0
1 0
‐ M a y ‐ 1 0
0 7
‐ J u n ‐ 1 0
0 5
‐ J u l ‐ 1 0
0 2
‐ A u g ‐ 1 0
3 0
‐ A u g ‐ 1 0
2 7
‐ S e p ‐ 1 0
2 5
‐ O c t ‐ 1 0
2 2
‐ N o v ‐ 1 0
2 0
‐ D e c ‐ 1 0
1 7
‐ J a n ‐ 1 1
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
Vol ('000)Price ($)
Performance
1m
3m
6m
Absolute (%) 30.8 8.5 ‐7.3
Relative (%) 27.3 6.6 ‐15.3
Stock Information
Ticker code REA.SI
REAG SP
Market cap (US$m) 122.8
52‐week high (S$) 0.365
52‐week low (S$) 0.185
Shares issued (m) 620.1
6m
avg
d.vol
(US$m)
1.4
Free float (%) 37.4
Major shareholders (%)
Blue Ocean Group ‐ Xu Jian (51.3)
Lam Tak Shing (7.5)
Key Indicators
ROE (%) 27.3
Net gearing (%) 20.2
NTA (RMB) 0.39
Interest cover (x) 32.4
Event
Renewable Energy Asia (REA) has entered into a term sheet with the
Executive Director, Lam Tak Shing to dispose of its fastening business
for $7.6m. We believe this is a move in the right direction that will
allow REA to consolidate its resources in the core renewable energy
business. We maintain BUY with a new target price of $0.35, now
pegged at 11x FY Mar12F PER.
Our View
The total consideration for the proposed disposal amounts to about
$7.6m. This represents a discount of 12.5% to the NTA of its Fastening
Companies as at end‐March 2010. Given a possible loss of RMB5.1m
that will be charged to the income statement, we have tweaked our
FY Mar11 earnings estimate by 19% to RMB39.5m.
The disposal is subject to approval by the shareholders. If they give
the nod, the deal will be sealed and REA can then focus on its core
renewable energy business. The sale proceeds will also come in
handy as the cash can be deployed to develop its wind farm projects.
Separately, REA has secured a concession to develop a 49.5MW wind
farm in Binhai New Area, China. Land and infrastructure resources for
the project will be provided by the Jiangsu provincial government.
REA, which owns a 49% stake, and Datang Renewable, its JV partner,
will be responsible for the construction and subsequent maintenance
of the wind farm. The total capex is estimated to be RMB500m, of
which 80% will be funded through bank borrowings.
Action & Recommendation
We lower our target multiple to 11x FY Mar12F PER and trim our target
price to $0.35 from $0.40 following Datang Renewable’s lackluster share
price performance since its debut on the Hong Kong stock exchange on
17 December 2010. In our view, this seems to suggest waning investor
appetite for wind power producers as sentiment is being weighed by
sector concerns. With 37% upside potential, we maintain our BUY call.
Year End Mar 31 2009 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F
Sales (RMB m) 110.9 99.4 505.0 963.8 1,369.7
Pre‐tax (RMB m) ‐10.0 ‐101.6 52.6 120.6 201.3
Net profit (RMB m) ‐10.5 ‐101.4 39.5 99.5 151.0
EPS (fen) ‐2.0 ‐19.2 6.9 16.0 24.3
EPS growth (%) n.m n.m n.m 91.3 51.1
PER (x) n.m n.m 18.6 8.1 5.3
EV/EBITDA (x) 45.7 4.6 11.4 7.0 4.3
Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
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Renewable Energy Asia 18 January 2011
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Target multiple lowered on sector de‐rating
We note Datang Renewable’s (1798 HK) lackluster share price performance after
its Iisting. At HK$2.06, the stock is still trading almost 12% below its offer price of
HK2.33, which values it at 25.0x FY10 and 11.6x FY11 PER. With investors
shunning wind power companies on concerns about overcapacity and lack of grid
connections in certain remote areas, we believe REA warrants a discount,
especially given its smaller size and shorter track record.
As a result, we trim our target price to $0.35 from $0.40. This pegs the stock at
11x FY Mar12F PER, which is still at a discount to its Hong Kong‐listed peers.
Nevertheless, we maintain our BUY recommendation as forward valuation
appears undemanding at the current level.
Figure 1: Peer comparison
Local Mkt cap PER (x) ROE P/B Div yield
Company Ticker price (US$m) FY10 FY11 FY12 (%) (x) (%)
China Longyuan 916 HK HK$7.26 2,530.7 25.3 18.3 14.4 8.0 1.9 0.6
China Windpower 182 HK HK$0.78 741.4 17.7 11.8 8.2 9.7 1.6 0.0
Datang Renewable 1798 HK HK$2.06 662.6 25.0 11.6 7.6 7.6 1.1 0.0
Xinjiang Goldwind 2208 HK HK15.62 1,004.4 14.6 12.5 10.8 25.7 2.5 1.6
Simple average 1,234.8 20.7 13.6 10.3 12.8 1.8 0.6
REA Group REAG SP S$0.255 122.5 18.6 8.1 5.3 27.3 3.1 0.0
Source: Bloomberg, Kim Eng estimates
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Profit and loss
YE Mar (RMB m) 2009 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F
Sales 109.0 97.7 505.0 963.8 1369.7
Cost of goods sold ‐72.8 ‐78.2 ‐399.4 ‐772.9 ‐1101.0
Gross profit 36.1 19.4 105.6 190.9 268.6
Operating expenses ‐40.7 ‐113.4 ‐53.8 ‐83.3 ‐103.8
Operating profit ‐4.5 ‐94.0 51.8 107.6 164.9
Net interest ‐5.3 ‐5.9 ‐1.6 ‐1.8 ‐2.0
Interest income 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Interest expense ‐5.3 ‐5.9 ‐1.6 ‐1.8 ‐2.0
Net investment income/(loss) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net other non‐op. JV+Assoc. 0.0 0.0 2.4 14.8 38.4
Net extraordinaries 0.0 0.0 ‐5.1 0.0 0.0
Pretax profit ‐9.8 ‐99.9 52.6 120.6 201.3
Income taxes ‐0.5 0.5 ‐13.2 ‐21.1 ‐50.3
Minority interests 0.0 ‐0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net profit ‐10.3 ‐99.7 39.5 99.5 151.0
EBITDA 10.3 ‐78.6 68.8 126.6 186.9
EPS (fen) ‐2.0 ‐19.2 6.9 16.0 24.3
Source: Company data, Kim Eng estimates
Balance sheet
YE Mar (RMB m) 2009 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F
Total assets 227.6 164.7 384.5 514.4 643.9
Current assets 58.7 71.2 133.0 156.9 233.4
Cash & ST investment 2.9 4.7 37.1 2.7 55.3
Inventories 29.9 14.4 30.3 48.2 54.8
Accounts receivable 22.6 30.3 35.4 57.8 68.5
Others 3.3 21.8 30.3 48.2 54.8
Other assets 168.9 93.5 251.5 357.5 410.5
LT
investments
0.0 0.0
0.0
0.0 0.0Net fixed assets 168.9 93.5 251.5 357.5 410.5
Others 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Total liabilities 133.9 112.2 147.6 177.9 156.5
Current liabilities 125.6 83.2 115.5 150.9 134.5
Accounts payable 30.5 24.9 28.0 46.4 55.1
ST borrowings 45.9 28.6 55.0 65.0 35.0
Others 49.2 29.7 32.6 39.5 44.4
Long‐term liabilities 8.3 29.0 32.0 27.0 22.0
Long‐term debts 0.0 26.8 30.0 25.0 20.0
Others 8.3 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0
Shareholder's equity 93.7 52.5 237.0 336.4 487.4
Paid‐in capital 17.5 69.8 214.8 214.8 214.8
Reserve 76.2 ‐17.7 21.8 121.2 272.2
Minority interests 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Source: Company data, Kim Eng estimates
Cash flow
YE Mar (RMB m) 2009 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F
Operating cash flow 28.2 ‐26.8 33.5 85.6 162.7
Operating profit ‐9.8 ‐99.9 52.6 120.6 201.3
Depreciation & amortisation 14.8 15.3 17.0 19.0 22.0
Change in working capital 18.6 ‐19.9 ‐23.1 ‐32.9 ‐10.3
Others
4.5
77.6‐
12.9‐
21.1‐
50.3Investment cash flow ‐34.1 ‐12.8 ‐175.0 ‐125.0 ‐75.0
Net capex ‐12.3 ‐12.6 ‐175.0 ‐125.0 ‐75.0
Change in LT investment 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Change in other assets ‐21.8 ‐0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cash flow after invt. ‐5.9 ‐39.6 ‐141.5 ‐39.4 87.7
Financing cash flow ‐12.3 39.0 174.1 5.0 ‐35.0
Change in share capital 0.0 55.7 145.0 0.0 0.0
Net change in debt ‐10.2 ‐12.3 29.5 5.0 ‐35.0
Change in other LT liab. ‐2.2 ‐4.5 ‐0.5 0.0 0.0
Net cash flow ‐18.3 ‐0.7 32.6 ‐34.4 52.7
Source: Company data, Kim Eng estimates
Key ratios
YE Mar 2009 2010 2011F 2012F 2013F
Growth (% YoY)
Sales n.a ‐10.4 417.1 90.9 42.1
Operating profit n.a 1974.7 n.m 107.7 53.3
EBITDA n.a
‐865.1 n.m 84.0 47.6
Net profit n.a 864.6 n.m 152.0 51.8
EPS n.a 864.6
n.m 131.7 51.8
Profitability (%)
Gross margin 33.2 19.9 20.9 19.8 19.6
Operating margin ‐4.2 ‐96.2 10.3 11.2 12.0
EBITDA margin 9.4 ‐80.5 13.6 13.1 13.6
Net margin ‐9.5 ‐102.1 7.8 10.3 11.0
ROA ‐4.5 ‐60.5 10.3 19.3 23.4
ROE ‐11.0 ‐136.4 27.3 34.7 36.7Stability
Gross debt/equity (%) 49.0 105.7 35.9 26.8 11.3
Net debt/equity (%) 45.9 96.7 20.2 26.0 ‐0.1
Int. coverage (X) ‐0.9 ‐15.9 32.4 59.8 82.4
Int. & ST debt coverage (X) ‐0.1 ‐3.3 0.9 1.7 4.7
Cash flow int. coverage (X) 5.3 ‐4.5 21.0 47.5 81.3
Cash flow int. & ST debt (X) 0.6 ‐0.9 0.6 1.3 4.6
Current ratio (X) 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.0 1.7
Quick ratio (X) 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.7 1.3
Net cash/(debt) (RMB m) ‐43.0 ‐50.8 ‐47.9 ‐87.3 0.3
Per share data (fen)
EPS ‐2.0 ‐19.2 6.9 16.0 24.3
CFPS 5.4 ‐5.2 5.4 13.8 26.2
BVPS 18.0 10.1 41.6 54.3 78.6
SPS 21.0 18.8 81.4 155.4 220.9
EBITDA/share 2.0 ‐15.1 11.1 20.4 30.1
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Source: Company data, Kim Eng estimates
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ANALYSTS’ COVERAGE / RESEARCH OFFICES
4
PHILIPPINES
Ricardo PUIG Head of Research
+63 2 849 8835 [email protected]
Strategy
Property
Telcos
Laura DY‐LIACCO
+63 2 849 8840 [email protected]
Utilities
Conglomerates
Lovell SARREAL
+63 2 849 8841 [email protected]
Consumer
Media
Kenneth NERECINA
+63 2 849 8839 [email protected]
Conglomerates
Cement
Ports/ Logistics
Katherine TAN
+63 2 849 8843 [email protected]
Banks
Construction
REGIONAL
Luz LORENZO Economist
+63 2 849 8836 [email protected]
Economics
ONG Seng Yeow
+65 6432 1832 [email protected]
Regional Products & Planning
TAIWAN
Gary Chia
Head of Greater China Research
+886 2 3518 7900 [email protected]
Boris Markovich
COO, Greater China Research +852 3969 9518 [email protected]
John Brebeck, CFA
Head of Taiwan Strategy Head of Research, Taiwan
+886 2 3518 7906 [email protected]
George Chang, CFA
Head of Upstream Tech +886 2 3518 7907 [email protected]
Vincent Chen
Head of Downstream Tech +886 2 3518 7903 [email protected]
Dennis Chan – NB Supply Chain
+886 2 3518 7913 [email protected]
Andrew C Chen – IC Backend
+886 2 3518 7940 [email protected]
Ellen Chiu – Taiwan Consumer
+886 2 3518 7936 [email protected]
Danny Ho – Taiwan Petrochemical
+886 2 3518 7923 [email protected]
Min Li – Alternative Energy
+852 3969 9521 [email protected]
May Lin – Taiwan Telecom
+886 2 3518 7942 [email protected]
Tess Wang – Taiwan Financials
+886 2 3518 7901 [email protected]
Recommendation definitions
SINGAPORE
Stephanie WONG Head of Research
Regional Head of Institutional Research +65 6432 1451 [email protected]
Strategy
Small & Mid Caps
Gregory YAP
+65 6432 1450 [email protected]
Conglomerates
Technology & Manufacturing
Transport & Telcos
Rohan SUPPIAH
+65 6432 1455 [email protected]
Airlines
Marine & Offshore
Wilson LIEW
+65 6432 1454 [email protected]
Hotel & Resort
Property & Construction
Anni KUM
+65 6432 1470 [email protected]
Conglomerates
REITs
James KOH
+65 6432 1431 [email protected]
Finance & Banking
Logistics
Resources
Eric ONG
+65 6432 1857 [email protected]
Marine
&
Offshore
Energy
OOI Yi Tung
+65 6433 5712 [email protected]
Property & Construction
YEAK Chee Keong, CFA
+65 6433 5730 [email protected]
Retail & Consumer
Engineering
Infrastructure
HONG KONG / CHINA
Edward FUNG Head of Research
+852 2268 0632 [email protected]
Power
Construction
Ivan CHEUNG
+852 2268 0634 [email protected]
Property
Industrial
Ivan LI
+852 2268 0641 [email protected]
Banking & Finance
Jacqueline KO
+852 2268 0633 [email protected]
Consumer Staples
Robert WANG
+852 2268 0630 [email protected]
Auto
Andy POON
+852 2268 0645 [email protected]
Telecom & related services
INDIA
Jigar SHAH Head of Research +91 22 6623 2601 [email protected]
Oil & Gas
Transportation
Anubhav GUPTA
+91 22 6623 2605 [email protected]
Property
Capital goods
Rohit LEDWANI
+91226623 2625 [email protected]
Banking and Financial services
Nikhil AGARWAL
+91226623 2611 [email protected]
Cement
Metals
Haripreet BATRA
+91226623 2606 [email protected]
Software
Education
Ganesh RAM
+91226623 2607 [email protected]
Telecom
Media
MALAYSIA
YEW Chee Yoon Head of Research +603 2141 1555 [email protected]
Strategy
Banks
Telcos
Property
Conglomerates & others
LIEW Mee Kien
+603 2141 1555 [email protected]
Gaming
Media
Power
Construction
Research Team
+603 2141 1555
Food & Beverage
Manufacturing
Plantations
Tobacco
Technology
INDONESIA
Katarina SETIAWAN Head of Research
+6221 2557 1125 [email protected]
Consumer
Infra
Shipping
Strategy
Telcos
Others
Ricardo SILAEN
+6221 2557 1126 [email protected]
Auto
Energy
Heavy Equipment
Property
Resources
Rahmi MARINA
+6221 2557 1128 [email protected]
Banking
Lucky ARIESANDI, CFA
+6221 2557 1127 [email protected]
Cement
Construction
Pharmaceutical
Retail
Adi N. WICAKSONO
+6221 2557 1130 [email protected]
Generalist
Arwani PRANADJAYA
+6221 2557 1129 [email protected]
Technical analyst
VIETNAM
Nguyen Thi Ngan Tuyen
+84 838 38 66 36 x 163 [email protected]
Pharmaceutical
Confectionary and Beverage
Oil and Gas
Ngo Bich Van
+84 838 38 66 36 x 164 [email protected]
Bank
Insurance
Nguyen Quang Duy
+84 838 38 66 36 x 162 [email protected]
Shipping
Seafood
Rubber
Trinh Thi Ngoc Diep
+84
838
38
66
36
x
166
Property
Construction
THAILAND
Kanchan KHANIJOU
+ 662 658 6300 x 4750 [email protected]
Banks
Construction Materials
Nathavut SHIVARUCHIWONG
+ 662 658 6300 x 4730 [email protected]
Property
Shipping
Our recommendation is based on the
following expected price
performance within 12 months:
+15% and above: BUY
‐15% to +15%: HOLD‐15% or worse: SELL
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Renewable Energy Asia 18 January 2011
5
APPENDIX I: TERMS FOR PROVISION OF REPORT, DISCLOSURES
AND
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Act
(“SFA”)
and
the
Singapore
Financial
Advisers
Act
(“FAA”))
and
who
are
allowed
access
thereto
(each
an
"Authorised
Person") and is subject to the terms and disclaimers below.
IF YOU ARE NOT AN AUTHORISED PERSON OR DO NOT AGREE TO BE BOUND BY THE TERMS AND DISCLAIMERS SET OUT BELOW,
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Renewable Energy Asia 18 January 2011
6
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