11 Predicting Students Performances on the SAT Using their Performances on the 2003-04 8 th Grade...

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Predicting Students’ Performances on the SAT Using their Performances on the 2003-04 8th Grade MSA

M. Wang and A. Milam

Division of Accountability, Assessment, and Research

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Background

A total of 4664 students who took the 8th Grade MSA Reading and MSA Math in 2003-04 and were still AACPS students in 2007-08 were included in the study.Under normal circumstances, the 4664 students should be the 12 graders in the 2007-08 school year.For students who took SAT multiple times, only the highest score was used for the analysis.

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Questions

What are the SAT score distributions? How many of the 2003-04 8th grade MSA Advanced students have never taken the SAT by the end of the 2007-08 school year?What grade levels did students in each MSA level usually take the SAT?How well do students’ performances on the MSA predict their performances on the SAT? What SAT scores are the 8th grade MSA Advanced students predicted to receive based on their MSA scores?

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Distribution of the SAT Math Scores

55

Distribution of the SAT Verbal Scores

66

Distribution of the SAT Writing Scores

77

Distribution of the Combined SAT Verbal, Math, and Writing Scores

88

Frequency Table of the SAT Math Scores – By Ethnicity

SAT Math Score

Ethnicity

Asian African American

Hispanic American Indian

White All

N % N % N % N % N % N %

700 – 800 9 8.0 2 .5 1 2.5 112 6.0 124 5.1*

600 – 690 34 30.4 17 4.1 4 10.0 446 23.8 501 20.5*

500 – 590 32 28.6 77 18.6 10 25.0 1 25.0 729 38.9 849 34.8*

400 – 490 27 24.1 177 42.9 14 35.0 2 50.0 459 24.5 679 27.8

300 – 390 10 8.9 110 26.6 10 25.0 1 25.0 114 6.1 245 10.0

200 – 290 30 7.3 1 2.5 12 .7 43 1.8

Total 112 100.0 413 100.0 40 100.0 4 100.0 1872 100.0 2441 100.0* Of the 2003-04 8th grade students who took the SAT, 25.6% scored at least 600 points and 60.4% scored at least 500 points on the SAT Math. • Asian and White students had higher chances of scoring at least 500 or 600 points on the SAT Math than other ethnic groups of students.• “N” stands for number of students.

99

Frequency Table of the SAT Verbal Scores – By Ethnicity

* Of the 2003-04 8th grade students who took the SAT, 20.2% scored at least 600 points and 54.5% scored at least 500 points on the SAT Verbal. ** African American students had a smaller chance of scoring at least 500 points on the SAT Verbalthan other ethnic groups of students.• “N” stands for number of students.

SAT Verbal Score

Ethnicity



White All

N % N % N % N % N % N %

700 – 800 3 2.7 3 .7** 1 2.5 81 4.3 88 3.6*

600 – 690 21 18.7 13 3.1** 2 5.0 1 25.0 367 19.6 404 16.5*

500 – 590 46 41.1 83 20.1** 16 40.0 1 25.0 691 36.9 837 34.3*

400 – 490 30 26.8 170 41.2 9 22.5 1 25.0 566 30.2 776 31.8

300 – 390 12 10.7 121 29.3 10 25.0 1 25.0 151 8.1 295 12.1

200 – 290 23 5.6 2 5.0 16 .9 41 1.7

Total 112 100.0 413 100.0 40 100.0 4 100.0 1872 100.0 2441 100.0

1010

Frequency Table of the SAT Writing Scores – By Ethnicity

* Of the 2003-04 8th grade students who took the SAT, 15.6% scored at least 600 points and 50.8% scored at least 500 points on the SAT Writing. ** African American students had a smaller chance of scoring at least 500 points on the SAT Writingthan other ethnic groups of students.• “N” stands for number of students.

SAT Writing Score

Ethnicity



White All

N % N % N % N % N % N %

700 – 800 2 1.8 58 3.1 60 2.5*

600 – 690 15 13.4 11 2.7** 4 10.0 290 15.5 320 13.1*

500 – 590 46 41.1 72 17.4** 12 30.0 2 50.0 727 38.9 859 35.2*

400 – 490 29 25.9 158 38.3 12 30.0 576 30.8 775 31.8

300 – 390 19 16.9 143 34.6 12 30.0 1 25.0 204 10.9 379 15.5

200 – 290 1 .9 29 7.0 1 25.0 15 .8 46 1.9

Total 112 100.0 413 100.0 40 100.0 4 100.0 1870 100.0 2439 100.0

1111

Frequency Table of the Combined SAT Scores – By Ethnicity

Combined SAT Score

Ethnicity



White All

N % N % N % N % N % N %

1800 – 2400 23 20.5 10 2.4 2 5.0 379 20.3 414 17.0*

1550 – 1790 45 40.2 46 11.1 10 25.0 1 25.0 653 34.9 755 31.0*

1300 – 1540 21 18.7 135 32.7 11 27.5 1 25.0 565 30.2 733 30.0

1080 – 1320 20 17.9 137 33.2 12 30.0 1 25.0 222 11.9 392 16.1

830 – 1070 3 2.7 80 19.4 5 12.5 1 25.0 45 2.4 134 5.5

580 – 820 5 1.2 6 .3 11 .4

Total 112 100 413 100 40 100 4 100 1870 100 2439 100* Of the 2003-04 8th grade students who took the SAT, 17.0% scored at least a total of 1800 points and 48% scored at least a total of 1550 points on the SAT. • Asian and White students had higher chances of scoring at least a total of 1550 points on the SAT than other ethnic groups of students.• “N” stands for number of students.

1212

SAT Test Status – By Ethnicity

• By the end of the 2007-08 school year, 52.3% of the 4664 students, 84.8% of the Asian, 46.0% of the African American, 33.3% of the Hispanic, 57.1% of the American Indian, and 53.4% of the White students have taken the SAT.*Asian students had the highest SAT test taken rate.

Ethnicity Test Status Number of Students Percent of Students

Asian Not-Tested 20 15.2

Tested 112 84.8*

African AmericanNot-Tested 485 54.0

Tested 413 46.0

HispanicNot-Tested 80 66.7

Tested 40 33.3

American IndianNot-Tested 3 42.9

Tested 4 57.1

WhiteNot-Tested 1635 46.6

Tested 1872 53.4

AllNot-Tested 2223 47.7

Tested 2441 52.3

1313

SAT Test Status – By MSA Math Proficiency Level

• By the end of the 2007-08 school year, 52.3% of the 4664 students, 26.5% of the MSA Basic students, 57.1% of the MSA Proficient, and 86.4% of the MSA Advanced students in Math have taken the SAT.* By the end of the 2007-08 school year, 13.6% of the 2003-04 8th grade MSA advanced students in Math have never taken the SAT.

MSA Math Level Test Status Number of Students Percent of Students

Basic

Not-Tested 1302 73.5%

Tested 470 26.5%

Total 1772 100.0%

ProficientNot-Tested 773 42.9%

Tested 1027 57.1%

Total 1800 100.0%

AdvancedNot-Tested 148 13.6%*

Tested 944 86.4%

Total 1092 100.0%

AllNot-Tested 2223 47.7%

Tested 2441 52.3%

Total 4664 100.0%

1414

SAT Test Status – By MSA Reading Proficiency Level

• By the end of the 2007-08 school year, 24.0% of the MSA Basic students, 53.6% of the MSA Proficient, and 81.4% of the MSA Advanced students in Reading have taken the SAT.* By the end of the 2007-08 school year, 18.6% of the 2003-04 8th grade MSA Advanced students in Reading have never taken the SAT.

MSA Reading Level Test Status Number of Students Percent of Students

Basic


Tested 314 24.0%

Total 1307 100.0%

Proficient


Tested 1167 53.6%

Total 2177 100.0%

Advanced

Not-Tested 220 18.6%*

Tested 960 81.4%

Total 1180 100.0%

All


Tested 2441 52.3%

Total 4664 100.0%

1515

SAT Test Status for the Students Who Scored Advanced in Both Math and Reading Portions of the MSA

* By the end of the 2007-08 school year, 8.7% of the 2003-04 8th grade MSA Advanced students in Reading and Math have never taken the SAT. ** Note: One of the 8th grade MSA Math and Reading Advanced and SAT tested students did not take the SAT Writing test.

Test StatusNumber of the MSA Math and

Reading Advanced StudentsPercent of Students

Not-Tested** 59 8.7%*

Tested 619** 91.3%

Total 678 100.0%

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Frequency Table of the Ethnicities of the 59 MSA Advanced Students Who Have Never Taken the SAT by

the End of the 2007-08 School Year

Ethnicity Number of Students Percent of Students

Asian 2 3.4

African American 3 5.1

Hispanic 3 5.1

White 51 86.4*

Total 59 100.0

* Of the 59 8th grade MSA Math and Reading Advanced students who did not take the SATby the end of the 2007-08 school year, 86.4% are White students.

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Frequency Table of the High Schools of the 59 MSA Advanced Students Who Have Never Taken the SAT by

the End of the 2007-08 School Year

School Number of Students Percent of Students

Glen Burnie 7 11.9

North County 3 5.1

Severna Park 6 10.2

Chesapeake 4 6.8

Broadneck 11 18.6*

Arundel 4 6.8

Meade 4 6.8

Old Mill 8 13.6

Southern 4 6.8

South River 8 13.6

Total 59 100.0

* Of the 59 8th grade MSA Math and Reading Advanced students who did not take the SATby the end of the 2007-08 school year, 11 were Broadneck High School students.

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Grade Levels of the Students When They Took the SAT – By MSA Math Proficiency Level

MSA Math Proficiency Level Grade Level Number of the Students Percent of the Students

Basic

10 1* .2

11 151 32.1

12 318 67.7

Total 470 100.0

Proficient

10 3 .3

11 445 43.3

12 579 56.4

Total 1027 100.0

Advanced

8 2 .2

10 7 .7

11 529 56.0

12 406 43.0

Total 944 100.0

* The student took the SAT in June 2008. She was still repeating Grade 10, although under normal circumstances, she should be a 12th grader. • Students were more likely to take the SAT in Grade 12, if they scored Basic or Proficient on the 8 th grade MSA Math; and more likely to take the SAT in Grade 11, if they scored Advanced on the 8 th grade MSA Math.

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Grade Levels of the Students When They Took the SAT – By MSA Reading Proficiency Level

• Students were more likely to take the SAT in Grade 12, if they scored Basic or Proficient on the 8th grade MSA Reading; and more likely to take the SAT in Grade 11, if they scored Advanced on the 8th grade MSA Reading.

MSA Reading Proficiency Level Grade Level Number of the Students Percent of the Students

Basic

11 111 35.4

12 203 64.6

Total 314 100.0

Proficient

8 1 .1

10 4 .3

11 474 40.6

12 688 59.0

Total 1167 100.0

Advanced

8 1 .1

10 7 .7

11 540 56.3

12 412 42.9

Total 960 100.0

2020

Correlation between the 8th Grade MSA Scale Scores and the SAT Scores

* The 8th grade MSA Reading Scale Score and the SAT Verbal/Writing Scores are strongly correlated.** The 8th grade MSA Math Scale Score and the SAT Math Score are strongly correlated.***The combined 8th grade MSA Math & Reading Scale Score and the combined SAT score are strongly correlated.

MSA Reading

Scale ScoreMSA Math Scale Score

Combined MSA Math and Reading Scale Score

SAT Verbal Score

Correlation Coefficient .722* .654 .756

N 2441 2441 2441

SAT Writing Score

Correlation Coefficient .702* .661 .750

N 2439 2439 2439

SAT Math Score

Correlation Coefficient .584 .821** .789

N 2441 2441 2441

Combined SAT Score

Correlation Coefficient .728 .778 .835***

N 2439 2439 2439

2121

Predicting Students’ SAT Math Score Ranges Using Their Proficiency Levels on the 8th Grade MSA Math

The 8th Grade MSA Math Proficiency Level

Basic Proficient Advanced

Count Col % Count Col % Count Col %

SAT Math Score Range

200-290 43 9.2%

300-390 182 38.7%* 63 6.1%

400-490 203 43.2%* 428 41.7%** 48 5.1%

500-590 41 8.7% 449 43.7%** 359 38.0%***

600-690 1 .2% 84 8.2% 416 44.1%***

700-800 3 .3% 121 12.8%***

* Of the 470 students who scored Basic on the 8th grade MSA Math, 81.9% scored between 300 and 490 on the SAT Math.** Of the 1027 students scoring proficient on the 8 th grade MSA Math, 85.4% scored between 400 and 590 on the SAT Math.*** Of the 944 students scoring Advanced on the 8th grade MSA Math, 94.9% scored between 500 and 800 on the SAT Math.

2222

Predicting Students’ SAT Verbal Score Ranges Using Their Proficiency Levels on the 8th Grade MSA Reading

* Of the 314 students who scored Basic on the MSA Reading, 84.1% scored between 300 and 490 on the SAT Verbal.** Of the 1167 students scoring proficient on the MSA Reading, 81.8% scored between 400 and 590 on the SAT Verbal.*** Of the 960 students scoring Advanced on the MSA Reading, 86.8% scored between 500 and 800 on the SAT Verbal.

The 8th Grade MSA Reading Proficiency Level



SAT Verbal Score Range

200-290 34 10.8% 7 .6%

300-390 153 48.7%* 133 11.4% 9 .9%

400-490 111 35.4%* 547 46.9%** 118 12.3%

500-590 15 4.8% 407 34.9%** 415 43.2%**

600-690 1 .3% 68 5.8% 335 34.9%**

700-800 5 .4% 83 8.7%**

2323

Predicting Students’ SAT Writing Score Ranges Using Their Proficiency Levels on the 8th Grade MSA Reading

* Of the 314 students who scored Basic on the MSA Reading, 84.4% scored between 300 and 490 on the SAT Writing.** Of the 1167 students scoring proficient on the MSA Reading, 77.3% scored between 400 and 590 on the SAT Writing.*** Of the 960 students scoring Advanced on the MSA Reading, 82.9% scored between 500 and 800 on the SAT Writing.

The 8th Grade MSA Reading Proficiency Level



SAT Writing Score Range

200-290 35 11.2% 11 .9%

300-390 166 52.9%* 199 17.1% 14 1.5%

400-490 99 31.5%* 527 45.2%** 149 15.5%

500-590 12 3.8% 374 32.1%** 473 49.3%***

600-690 2 .6% 53 4.5% 265 27.6%***

700-800 2 .2% 58 6.0%***

2424

The Scatter Plot of the 8th Grade MSA Math Scale Score and the SAT Math Score

2525

The Scatter Plot of the 8th Grade MSA Reading Scale Score and the SAT Verbal Score

2626

The Scatter Plot of the 8th Grade MSA Reading Scale Score and the SAT Writing Score

2727

The Scatter Plot of the Combined 8th Grade MSA Math/Reading Scale Score and the Combined SAT Score

The Total SAT Score

•The lowest score of the advanced 8th grade MSA Reading + the lowest score of the advanced 8th grade MSA Math is 869.

2828

The Corresponding 8th Grade MSA Math Scale Scores to the SAT Math Scores - By Linear Regression

SAT Math ScoreThe Corresponding 8th Grade MSA Math Scale Score

Lower End Estimated Upper End

100 229 251 276

200 270 294 320

300 311 337 364

400 353 380 409

500 394 422 453

550* 415 444* 475

600** 435** 465** 497**

700 477 508 542

800 518 551 586

* The lowest advanced score on the 8th grade MSA Math is 444, which corresponds to 550 points on the SAT Math test.** The corresponding 8th grade MSA Math scores to 600 points on the SAT Math test are 435 (lower end), 465 (estimated), and 497(upper end).

2929

The Corresponding 8th Grade MSA Reading Scale Scores to the SAT Verbal Scores – By Linear Regression

* The lowest advanced score on the 8th grade MSA Reading is 425, which corresponds to 521 points on the SAT Verbal test.** The corresponding 8th grade MSA Reading scores to 600 points on the SAT Verbal test are 420 (lower end), 456 (estimated), and 495 (upper end).

SAT Verbal ScoreThe Corresponding 8th Grade MSA Reading Scale Score


100 232 260 290

200 269 299 331

300 307 338 372

400 345 378 413

500 383 417 454

521* 390 425* 463

600** 420** 456** 495**

700 458 495 536

800 496 535 578

3030

The Corresponding 8th Grade MSA Reading Scale Scores to the SAT Writing Scores – By Linear Regression

* The lowest advanced score on the 8th grade MSA Reading is 425, which corresponds to 508 points on the SAT Writing test.** The corresponding 8th grade MSA Reading scores to 600 points on the SAT Writing test are 425 (lower end), 463 (estimated), and 504 (upper end).

SAT Writing ScoreThe Corresponding 8th Grade MSA Reading Scale Score


100 228 257 289

200 267 298 332

300 307 339 375

400 346 380 418

500 385 422 461

508* 389 425* 464

600** 425** 463** 504**

700 464 504 547

800 504 545 590

3131

The Corresponding Combined 8th Grade MSA Reading& Math Scale Scores to the Combined SAT Scores – By

Linear Regression

* The lowest score of the advanced 8th grade MSA Reading + the lowest score of the advanced 8th grade MSA Math is 869, which corresponds to 1593 points on the SAT.** The corresponding combined 8th grade MSA Reading and Math scores to 1800 points on the SAT total test are 867 (lower end), 922 (estimated), and 980 (upper end).

Combined Score

The Corresponding Combined 8th Grade MSA Reading and Math Scale Score


1500 793 845 901

1593* 816 869* 926

1650 830 883 940

1800** 867** 922** 980**

2400 1014 1074 1137

3232

Predicting Students’ Performances on SAT Math Using Their 8th Grade MSA Math Scale Scores

The 8th Grade MSAMath Score < 465

The 8th Grade MSAMath Score >= 465

Count Col % Count Col %

SAT Math Score < 600 1756 83.4%** 60 17.9%

SAT Math Score >= 600 349 16.6% 276 82.1%*

* Students who scored higher than or equal to 465 on the 8th grade MSA Math had a 82.1% chance of scoring at least 600 on the SAT Math.** Students who scored lower than 465 on the 8th grade MSA Math had a 83.4% chance of scoring lower than 600 on the SAT Math.

3333

Predicting Students’ Performances on SAT Verbal Using Their 8th Grade MSA Reading Scale Scores

* Students who scored higher than or equal to 456 on the 8 th grade MSA Reading had a 70.5% chance of scoring at least 600 on the SAT Verbal.** Students who scored lower than 465 on the 8th grade MSA Reading had a 85.4% chance of scoring lower than 600 on the SAT Verbal.*** Not many students scored 495 or higher on the 8 th grade MSA Reading.

The 8th Grade MSAReading Score < 456

The 8th Grade MSAReading Score >= 456


SAT Verbal Score < 600 1877 85.4%** 72 29.5%

SAT Verbal Score >= 600 320 14.6% 172 70.5%*




SAT Verbal Score < 600 1946 80.2% 3*** 21.4%

SAT Verbal Score >= 600 481 19.8% 11*** 78.6%

3434

Predicting Students’ Performances on SAT Writing Using Their 8th Grade MSA Reading Scale Scores

* Students who scored higher than or equal to 463 on the 8 th grade MSA Reading had a 62.4% chance of scoring at least 600 on the SAT Writing.** Students who scored lower than 463 on the 8th grade MSA Reading had a 86.8% chance of scoring lower than 600 on the SAT Writing.*** Students had a 85.7% chance of scoring 600 or higher on the SAT Writing test if they scored 504 or higher on the 8th grade MSA Reading. However, there were not many students scoring 504 or higher on the 8th grade MSA Reading.




SAT Writing Score < 600 2015 86.8%** 44 37.6%

SAT Writing Score >= 600 307 13.2% 73 62.4%*




SAT Writing Score < 600 2057 84.8% 2*** 14.3%

SAT Writing Score >= 600 368 15.2% 12*** 85.7%***

3535

Predicting Students’ Performances on Combined SAT Using Their Combined 8th Grade MSA Reading and Math Scale Scores

* Students who scored higher than or equal to 922 on the combined 8 th grade MSA Reading and Math had a 79.0% chance of scoring at least a total of 1800 points on the SAT.** Students who scored lower than 922 on the combined 8 th grade MSA Reading and Math had a 88.4% chance of scoring lower than 1800 on the SAT.*** Students had a 88.2% chance of scoring at least a total of 1800 on the SAT if they scored 980 or higher on the combined 8th grade MSA. However, there were not many students scoring 980 or higher on the combined 8th grade MSA.

The Combined 8th Grade MSAScore < 922

The Combined 8th Grade MSAScore >= 922


Combined SAT Score < 1800 1984 88.4%** 41 21.0%

Combined SAT Score >= 1800 260 11.6% 154 79.0%*

The Combined 8th Grade MSAScore < 980

The Combined 8th Grade MSAScore >= 980


Combined SAT Score < 1800 2023 83.5% 2*** 11.8%

Combined SAT Score >= 1800 399 16.5% 15*** 88.2%***

3636

Correct Percent of Using the MSA Math Or Reading Score to Predict Whether Students Scoring At Least or Lower Than

600 Points on an SAT Subject Test

Correct Percent of Using the 8th Grade MSA Score As the Predictor

CorrespondingMath Cut Score

Corresponding Reading Cut Score

465* 456 * 495 463* 504

SATSubject

Math (>= 600 0r <600) 83.4%

Verbal (>= 600 0r <600) 83.9% 80.2%

Writing (>= 600 0r<600) 85.6% 84.8%

* Best Predictors

3737

Correct Percent of Using the Combined MSA Math & Reading Score to Predict Whether Students Scoring at Least

or Lower Than a Total of 1800 Points on the SAT

* Best Predictors

Correct Percent of Using the Combined 8th Grade MSA Reading and Math Score As the Predictor

The Corresponding Combined 8th Grade MSA Math and Reading Scale Score

922 980

SAT Subject

Combined SAT (Verbal + Math + Writing) 87.7%* 83.6%

3838

Predicting the 8th Grade MSA Advanced Students’ Performances on the SAT

3939

Frequency Table of the Combined SAT Scores for Students Scoring Advanced on the 8th Grade MSA Math and Reading -

By Ethnicity

* Of the 618 8th grade MSA Math and Reading Advanced and SAT tested students, 86.5% scored at least a total of 1600 points and 51.6% scored at least a total of 1800 points on the SAT.** African American students who were advanced on the 8 th grade MSA Math and Reading had a smaller chance to score at least a total of 1600 points on the SAT than other ethnic groups of students.

Combined SAT Score

Ethnicity

Asian African Am. Hispanic White All

N % N % N % N % N %

1800-2400 14 45.2 8 34.8** 2 40.0 295 52.8 319 51.6*

1700-1790 5 16.1 5 21.7** 2 40.0 119 21.3 131 21.2*

1600-1690 8 25.8 3 13.0** 74 13.2 85 13.7*

1500-1590 4 12.9 4 17.4 1 20.0 52 9.3 61 9.9

1400-1490 2 8.7 19 3.4 21 3.4

1300-1390 1 4.4 1 .2

Total 31 100.0 23 100.0 5 100.0 559 100.0 618 100.0

4040

Predicted SAT Math Scores of the 8th Grade MSA Math Advanced Students

Advanced MSAMath Score Range

Number ofStudents

Percent of Students

Average (Predicted)SAT Math Score

444 – 453 346 36.7% 570

454 – 463 241 25.5% 599

464 – 473 162 17.2% 632

474 – 483 104 11.0% 651

> 483 91 9.6% 699

All 944 100.0% 610*

* The average SAT Math score of the 8th grade MSA Math advanced students is 610.• For example, students scoring between 444 and 453 on the 8 th grade MSA Math had an average of 570 points on the SAT Math.

4141

Predicted SAT Verbal Scores of the 8th Grade MSA Reading Advanced Students

Advanced MSAReading Score Range

Number ofStudents

Percent of Students

Average (Predicted)SAT Verbal Score

425 – 434 285 29.7% 552

435 – 444 294 30.6% 565

445 – 454 137 14.3% 588

455 – 464 127 13.2% 616

> 464 117 12.2% 647

All 960 100.0% 581*

* The average SAT Verbal score of the 8th grade MSA Reading advanced students is 581.

4242

Predicted SAT Writing Scores of the 8th Grade MSA Reading Advanced Students

Advanced MSAReading Score Range

Number ofStudents

Percent of Students

Average (Predicted)SAT Writing Score

425 – 434 285 29.7% 533

435 – 444 294 30.7% 554

445 – 454 137 14.3% 573

455 – 464 126 13.1% 600

> 464 117 12.2% 627

All 959 100.0% 565*

* The average SAT Writing score of the 8th grade MSA Reading advanced students is 565.

4343

Predicted Total SAT Scores of the 8th Grade MSA Reading and Math Advanced Students

Total MSAReading and Math

Score Range

Number ofStudents

Percent of Students

Average (Predicted)Total SAT Score

869 – 883 66 10.7% 1677

884 – 898 155 25.1% 1721

899 – 913 155 25.1% 1783

914 – 928 108 17.4% 1845

> 928 134 21.7% 1994

All 618 100.0% 1812*

* The average total SAT score of the 8th grade MSA Reading and Math advanced students is 1812.

4444

SummarySAT Performance

Of the 2003-04 8th grade students who have taken the SAT, 17% scored at least a total of 1800 points and 48% scored at least a total of 1550 points on the SAT. Asian and White students scored higher on the SAT than other ethnic groups of students.

Test Status by MSA Proficiency Level or EthnicityBy the end of the 2007-08 school year, 52.3% of the 4664 students, 84.8% of the Asian, 46.0% of the African American, 33.3% of the Hispanic, 57.1% of the American Indian, and 53.4% of the White students have taken the SAT.By the end of the 2007-08 school year, 13.6% of the 2003-04 8th grade MSA advanced students in Math have never taken the SAT.By the end of the 2007-08 school year, 18.6% of the 2003-04 8th grade MSA advanced students in Reading have never taken the SAT.By the end of the 2007-08 school year, 8.7 % of the 2003-04 8th grade MSA Advanced students in Reading and Math have never taken the SAT.Students were more likely to take the SAT in Grade 12 if they scored Basic or Proficient on the 8th grade MSA Math or Reading. Students were more likely to take the SAT in Grade 11 if they scored Advanced on the 8th grade MSA Math or Reading.

4545

SummaryCorrelation

The 8th grade MSA Math Scale Score and the SAT Math Score are strongly correlated with correlation coefficient 0.821.The 8th grade MSA Reading Scale Score and the SAT Verbal/Writing Scores are strongly correlated with correlation coefficient 0.722/0.702.The combined 8th grade MSA Math & Reading Scale Score and the combined SAT score are strongly correlated with correlation coefficient 0.835.

MSA Advanced StudentsThe average SAT Math score of the 8th grade MSA Math advanced students is 610.The average SAT Verbal and Writing scores of the 8th grade MSA Reading advanced students are 581 and 565, respectively.The average total SAT score of the 8th grade MSA Reading and Math advanced students is 1812.The predicted SAT score ranges using the 8th grade MSA advanced scores (in 10-15 points of increment) are available.

4646

Summary - Predicting Students’ SAT Score Ranges Using Their Proficiency Levels on the 8th Grade MSA

MSA Math and SAT MathThe 8th grade MSA Math Basic students had a 81.9% chance of scoring between 300 and 490 on the SAT Math.The 8th grade MSA Math Proficient students had a 85.4% chance of scoring between 400 and 590 on the SAT Math.The 8th grade MSA Math Advanced students had a 94.9% chance of scoring between 500 and 800 on the SAT Math.

MSA Reading and SAT VerbalThe 8th grade MSA Reading Basic students had a 84.1% chance of scoring between 300 and 490 on the SAT Verbal.The 8th grade MSA Reading Proficient students had a 81.8% chance of scoring between 400 and 590 on the SAT Verbal.The 8th grade MSA Reading Advanced students had a 86.8% chance of scoring between 500 and 800 on the SAT Verbal.

MSA Reading and SAT WritingThe 8th grade MSA Reading Basic students had a 84.4% chance of scoring between 300 and 490 on the SAT Writing.The 8th grade MSA Reading Proficient students had a 77.3% chance of scoring between 400 and 590 on the SAT Writing.The 8th grade MSA Reading Advanced students had a 82.9% chance of scoring between 500 and 800 on the SAT Writing.

4747

Summary - The Corresponding SAT Scores to the Advanced Cut Scores of the 8th Grade MSA and the Best 8th Grade MSA

Scores Corresponding to 600 points on the SAT

MSA Math and SAT MathThe lowest advanced score on the 8th grade MSA Math is 444, which corresponds to 550 points on the SAT Math test.The best corresponding 8th grade MSA Math score to 600 points on the SAT Math test is 465, which gives a 83.4% of correct prediction on whether or not students scoring at least 600 points on SAT Math.

MSA Reading and SAT VerbalThe lowest advanced score on the 8th grade MSA Reading is 425, which corresponds to 521 points on the SAT Verbal test.The best corresponding 8th grade MSA Reading score to 600 points on the SAT Verbal test is 456, which provides a 83.9% correct prediction on whether or not students scoring at least 600 points on SAT Verbal.

MSA Reading and SAT WritingThe lowest advanced score on the 8th grade MSA Reading is 425, which corresponds to 508 points on the SAT Writing test.The best corresponding 8th grade MSA Reading scores to 600 points on the SAT Writing test is 463, which gives a 85.6% correct prediction on whether or not students scoring at least 600 points on SAT Writing.

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Summary - The Corresponding Total SAT scores to the Lowest Combined 8th Grade MSA Advanced Cut Scores and the Best Combined 8th Grade

MSA Scores Corresponding to 1800 points on the SAT

The lowest score of the advanced 8th grade MSA Reading + the lowest score of the advanced 8th grade MSA Math is 869, which corresponds to 1593 points on the SAT.

The best corresponding total 8th grade MSA score to a total of 1800 points on the SAT is 922, which gives an 87.7% of correct prediction on whether or not students scoring at least a total of 1800 points on the SAT.

11 Predicting Students Performances on the SAT Using their Performances on the 2003-04 8 th Grade...

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