11 Gasfin Roland Fisher (4)
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Transcript of 11 Gasfin Roland Fisher (4)
Right-sized LNG solutions
The opportunity for mid-scale LNG
Roland Fisher, CEO, Gasfin Development SA
19th April 2012
Gasfin introduction
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Gasfin: Right-sized LNG solutions
Gasfin and its subsidiaries have a unique track record in the design and delivery of mid-scale LNG plant
Designed and delivered the first mid-scale mixed use LNG carrier - Coral Methane, 7,500m3 (2009)
Designed and delivered the first mid-scale LNG liquefaction plant - Xinjiang, 400,000ktpa (2004)
Market leading provider of gas plant to 120+ cryogenic gas carriers
Designed and delivered 50+ LNG & petrochemical terminals
This document is being furnished on a confidential basis and the information contained herein may not be reproduced or provided to others without the prior written consent of Gasfin
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Gasfin controls the resources to design, finance, deliver and operate mid-scale LNG infrastructure: ….LNG at every step, in every size, on land or sea, across the globe.
Developing LNG projects requires technical expertise, equity capital and project management
Gasfin
• Dedicated multi-disciplinary project development team
• 50% shareholding TGE Marine
• 40% shareholding in TGE Gas
TGE Marine• Market leader in cryogenic
gas handling systems for ships and offshore units
Caledonia Investments• UK equity investor
• 49% TGE Marine
TGE Gas• Leading contractor for bulk storage of cryogenic gases
CIMC• World leading infrastructure
equipment manufacturer
• Majority shareholding in TGE Gas
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Small/Mid scale LNG requires combining disciplines from LNG and Pet-chem markets
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Required experience Rationale Gasfin / TGE
Designed & delivered : LNG receiving (Regas) terminals
Core activity for LNG importation
Designed & delivered: Mid-scale LNG production
Could offer supply alternative for LNG outside the oil major cartel
Designed & delivered: ‘Type C’ LNG cargo tanks
Only tank design able to withstand pressure build up from LNG storage
Designed & delivered: Floating cryogenic storage
Floating plants ideal for fast build, quick approval, and scarce land
Designed & delivered: Shallow draft gas carriers
Design critical for delivering LNG to shore in shallow waters
Turnkey, fixed price service, with full EPC bonding
Ensures risk for equipment performance remains with TGE/Gasfin
Integrated project developer and gas engineer
Improves design flexibility and accelerates project timeline
Mid-Scale today
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Liquefaction
• Small scale liquefaction common – eg >100 peak-shave plants in US
• Multiple mid-size liquefaction plants in China
• First mid-scale in 2004 -TGE’s 430ktpa plant, near Urumuchi, NW China,
• Choice of technologies for liquefaction – Chart, Linde, Air Products, Black & Veatch, all proven in operation
Mid-scale LNG works and is nothing new...
Shipping
• Small ships not new...1st LNG shipment on a 5,000m³ vessel, old ships of ~35,000m³ serve in Med
• Several 20,000m³ LNGCs in ‘international’ service –eg. Malaysia to Japan
• Japan & Norway pioneers of small ships – eg. vessels of 1,000m3 to 7,5000 m3
• Vessels fit world scale terminals but use safe, simple cylindrical tanks
Receiving and Consumption
• Distribution sites designed to receive cargoes from 5m3 up
• Commonest tanks for small terminals are Type’C’ for 500m3
• Most small scale deliveries made by truck – Boston trucks 100’s ktpa LNG
• Floating receiving infrastructure is only area not proven at the small/ mid-scale
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Switching to gas for power generation can be economical.... but case by case analysis required
Lo-Su HFOGas
US$
/MW
hEl
ectr
icity
Base Case Oil Price
Analysis of Total generation costs:~400MW running baseload
LNG vs .5% HFO (LNG priced @ 14% Brent bbl/mmbtu)
Value of CO2 credits depends on jurisdiction. Some EU clients use $50/tonne, UNCDM nearer $15/tonne
When sourced in small quantities LNG can be expensive, however so too is LFO
Savings attributable to lower maintenance are material, and may be overlooked
Cost of conversion of D/F ready engines is material, but adds only 25% to costs of major overhaul
Infrastructure cost sensitive to distance to source, volumes, location
HFOLNG
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Optimising configuration can be critical
Key Issues Considerations
Supply
• Distance to market – affects scale, energy consumption
• Availability of jetty space – fixed costs and frequency limit may affect size choice
• Compatibility - Mooring configuration and loading rates
Route • Point to point or multiple customers – simple contract vs aggregation advantage
Storage Location• Onshore is most stable, but not always cheapest or possible
• Jetty moored FSRU cheaper than offshore but permitting/regulation tougher
Tank system• Type ‘C’ Cylindrical tanks dominate the smaller LNG market – allows longer
storage times (i.e. pressures), no license, and de-skills yard/site work• Membrane tanks limited by license costs, sloshing and yard limitations
Regas technology
• Using sea-water as heating agent may spur environmental objections
• Air vaporisors increase visual impact and wind exposure
• Shell & tube (glycol loop) optimum but requires storage to be near plant
• Submerged combustion is last resort but energy intensive
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EDF project:1 x 25,000m3 LNG carrier, 2 x 25,000m3 FSRUs
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Operational details• Proven, reliable components, high
redundancy with minimal maintenance
• Side-by-side LNG carrier unloading using conventional hard arms
• Regasification using air vaporizers
• 25+ year docking interval
• Tank design increases operational flexibility
Environmental details• Air vaporizers have no impact on sea
• Leak proof tank rules out gas venting
• “Clean ship” per classification rules
• Electricity generated with gas fuelled gen sets
Technical specifications: FSRU• Length: 114m; Width: : 32m
• Depth: 18m; Draft: : 7m
• Containment: 2 x IMO type “C“ cylindrical tanks
• Max. send out capacity: 50t/h
• Spread moored, 12 anchors
25,000m3 FSRU for Martinique/Guadeloupe
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FSRU breakdown into known components –Designed by specialists - reviewed by 3rd parties
HULL AND MACHINERY
Design led by:TGE Marine Gas Engineering
Design reviewed by:Bernhard Schulte Shipmanagement
Design similarity to:Ship hulls and machinery equipment
SPREAD MOORING
Design led by:Promoor Limited
Design reviewed by:Tecnitas
Proven design for:Several FPSOs / MODUs
PROCESS PLANT
Design led by:TGE Marine Gas Engineering
Design reviewed by:Bernhard Schulte Shipmanagement, TGE Gas Engineering
Design similarity to:LNGC and receiving terminal
RISER
Design led by:Technip
Design reviewed by:Risertec
Proven design existing for:FSPOs and FSRU‘s
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Commercial model for ‘right-sized’ services
Commercial approach is as specialised as the technical one
• Market depends on customised, right-size infrastructure to optimise storage and logistics costs
• Purpose built equipment needs long term contracts to offset limitations on alternative use
• Configuration of custom ships and FSRU means integrating of multiple steps and parties
• Sequential risk and interdependency is a BIG issue, especially given weak credits
• Mix of small markets and weak counterparties has been very detrimental to growth
Contract length • ~20+ years post ~30month construction
Payment type • Fixed availability based payment with indexation protection
Performance hurdles • Take or pay agains pre-agreed availability criteria
Other key considerations • Permitting risk largely borne by customer
Typical Contract terms
What next for Mid-scale?
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EDF pioneering LNG for Martinique and Guadeloupe• Project development agreement signed with Gasfin• 3,000 page permitting dossiers submitted Q4/2011• FID anticipated in 2012, first gas 2015.• Volume ~400,000tpa,
BIG hurdles remain for next ‘repeat’ project!• Supply: Appetite of World-scale LNG producers
• Volumes too small to move the needle• Perceived as adding risk to global operations• Unfamiliar with infrastructure or counterparties• Ask unreasonable prices or terms for new buyer, expect US players to take up market• Jetty space limited – need dedicated mid-scale jetty (eg Singapore)
• Demand: Realism on LNG pricing and value chain
When will mid-scale LNG “really” happen?
1 x
2 x
LNGC Size 25.000 m3
FSRU Size 25.000 m3
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Economics add up, but market price cost plus... need policy and private sector to join the dots
Cost base for Mid-Scale LNG Value Chain (US$/mmbtu – Volumes .3-.6mtpa)
1. Feed Gas Costs (e.g. 115% x H.Hub @$3.00)
$3.50*
2. Liquefaction Cost(est. for .500,000ktpa plant)
$3.50*
3. Shipping(depends on size/distance)
$1.00-$3.00
4. Storage and Regas(depends on size/distance)
$1.50-$3.50
Total Cost – Delivered Gas(alternatively = HH + $6-10)
$9.50-13.50
* Note costs for Steps 1 & 2 v.similar for either mid-scale or world scale volumes
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IF LNG cost HH+$4.00 FOB Trinidad ... Gas is economic for all these markets
Potential New Smaller Carib Customers: Ranked by attractiveness of LNG
Island Alt Fuel LNG Vol (tpa)Puerto Rico LFO 500,000 x2
Jamaica (N) LFO 250,000
St Lucia LFO 100,000
Mart/Guad HFO+ 400,000
Bermuda LFO 100,000
Cayman LFO 100,000
Bahamas Mix 500,000
St Barts/St Martin LFO 30,000 x2
Jamaica (S) (ex.Alu) HFO 600,000+
Dom Rep HFO 300 – 900,000
Barbados HFO 150,000
Aruba/Curacao (excl. refineries)
HFO 100,000 x2
Grenada et al... Mix 50,000
Gasfin’s next step for Caribbean?
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Mid-scale LNG production plant dedicated to Caribbean LNG sales?
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Above: Example of mid-scale LNG production plant developed by Gasfin affiliate, TGE in Urumuchi, China (2004)
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Why Mid-scale LNG production might work for Trinidad?
• Captures long term premium market for T&T gas in Caribbean, before lost to US exports
• Demonstrates genuine T&T commitment to fuel the region
• Stimulates jobs and new investment
• Provides unique opportunity for direct local participation in LNG chain
• Will spur incremental exploration, will not crowd out other projects
• Allows gradual regional gas adoption – LNG production added as demand grows
• Positions Trinidad as global pioneer in mid-scale LNG export
• Financeable by private sector, with proven technology, 2.5 year build time
• Has support of suppliers, investors, customers –awaits sanction for 70mmscf/d gas
Contacts:
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Fax: +44 20 3369 9695Email: [email protected]: www.gasfin.net