10th European Conference on Applications of Meteorology (ECAM)
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Transcript of 10th European Conference on Applications of Meteorology (ECAM)
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Marine Hydrophysical Institute of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine
The work is supported by EU FP7 Project “ТHЕSEUS”
E.N. Voskresenskaya, V.N. Maslova
Low-frequency anomalies of cyclonic activity in the Mediterranean-Black Sea region associated with ocean-atmosphere interaction in the North Atlantic and North Pacific
10th European Conference on Applications of Meteorology (ECAM)12 – 16 September 2011Berlin, Germany
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Climate shift or low-frequency variability?
http://atmoz.org/blog/2008/05/14/timescale-of-the-pdo-nao-and-amo/
AMO PDO
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Winter frequency anomalies (Black Sea cyclones)
-1,5
-1
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Winter PDO index
-1
-0,5
0
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Winter AMO index
-0,3
-0,2
-0,1
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Moving Average = 9 yrs
PDO
AMO
cyclones
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Composites of the frequency of cyclones associated with PDO phases
Voskresenskaya, E. N. and Maslova, V. N. : Winter-spring cyclonic variability in the Mediterranean-Black Sea region associated with global processes in the ocean-atmosphere system. Adv. Sci. Res., 6, 237–243, 2011.
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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Freq
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Months
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1948-1976 (PDO-)
1977-2001 (PDO+)
Black Sea Western Mediterranean Eastern Mediterranean
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Data and methods NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data sets on
1000hPa geopotential height in 1948 – 2006 for cyclone detection and their characteristics calculation with the use of special methodology after Bardin (1995)
interactive site of NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division for analysis of Monthly/Seasonal Climate Composites
Atlas of extratropical storm tracks from NASA GISS web page
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Aim
to study winter cyclonic activity in the Mediterranean-Black Sea region associated with the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO)
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How do PDO & AMO manifest in North Atlantic
storm tracks?
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PDO-
PDO+
Schematic representation of typical storm tracks for PDO phases
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AMO-
AMO+
Schematic representation of typical storm tracks for AMO phases
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Frequency of cyclones in the Mediterranean-Black Sea region
Shifts of North Atlantic storm tracks cause the deposition of zones with intensive cyclonic activity
PDO-
PDO+
AMO+
AMO-
January
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What are the joint AMO&PDO manifestations?
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+ + + + + + + + + - - - - + + + + + +
- - - - - - - - - + + + + + + + - - -
AMO
PDOAMO-PDO-
AMO-PDO+
1948 1965 1976 1995 2000 2006
MBS cyclones
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AMOAMO- - && PDOPDO++AMOAMO- - && PDOPDO--
Frequency of cyclonic centers in 2.5×2.5° squares
Anomalies of 500hPa geopotential height (m)
1967 – 1971 1988 – 1992
1967 – 1971 1988 – 1992
January
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Composites of 500hPa wind vector
PDO-AMO-
PDO+AMO-
PDO+AMO-
ms-1
PDO+AMO-
Schematic representation of typical storm tracks
January
Cyclonic activity in the Mediterranean-Black Sea region is more intense for combination AMO-&PDO- than for PDO+&AMO-
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Results AMO and PDO have significant manifestations
in decadal-multidecadal variability of cyclonic activity in the Mediterranean-Black Sea region due to specific shifts of North Atlantic storm tracks.
combination of negative AMO and PDO phases is accompanied by intensification of cyclonic activity in the Mediterranean-Black Sea region.
combination of the positive PDO phase and negative AMO phase causes the weakening of cyclonic activity in the studied region.
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Next steps
To study other combinations of the AMO&PDO phases and mechanisms of their influence on cyclonic activity in the Mediterranean-Black Sea region
+ + + + - - - - - - - - - - - - - - + +
- - - - - - - - - - + + + + + + + + - -
AMO
PDOAMO+PDO-
AMO+PDO+
1948 1965 1976 1995 2000 2006