10 years AeroCom - AeroCom Aerosol Comparisons between...
Transcript of 10 years AeroCom - AeroCom Aerosol Comparisons between...
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Michael Schulz / met.no AeroCom, Hamburg , 23 September 2013
10 years AeroCom
Michael Schulz
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Michael Schulz / met.no AeroCom, Hamburg , 23 September 2013
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Michael Schulz / met.no AeroCom, Hamburg , 23 September 2013
Acknowledgment I
Database
Christiane Textor, Sarah Guibert, Jan Griesfeller
AeroCom papers published (ca 1900 citations so far)
Dorothy Koch, Nicolas Huneeus, Brigitte Koffi, Gunnar
Myhre, Bjorn Samset, Philip Stier, Cynthia Randles, Frank
Dentener, Joyce Penner, Stefan Kinne, Johannes Quaas,
Christiane Textor
Workshop Organisers
Frank Dentener, Didier Tanre, Dorothy Koch, Rich
Ferrare, Steve Ghan/Tom Ackerman, Toshi Takemura, Jon
Egill Kristjannson/Trond Iversen, Philip Stier, Paul
Ginoux, Stefan Kinne
SSC Stefan Kinne, Mian Chin, Michael Schulz
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Michael Schulz / met.no AeroCom, Hamburg , 23 September 2013
Some words on Technology
How to facilitate multi-model analysis?
How to obtain and store data homogeneously?
Provide Documentation?
Check Data Quality?
With limited resources….
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Michael Schulz / met.no AeroCom, Hamburg , 23 September 2013
File Upload Tool
http://aerocom-test.met.no/upload
Developed to support the second phase of the TFHTAP
multimodel intercomparison activity and AEROCOM P3
It tests netCDF files for-
CF compliance
Range check for all variables in the uploaded file i.e. if their minimum, maximum,
and mean value lies within the range of previous TFHTAP model results (or met.no
defined limits).
See poster from Jan
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Michael Schulz / met.no AeroCom, Hamburg , 23 September 2013
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Michael Schulz / met.no AeroCom, Hamburg , 23 September 2013
The latest ultimate upload procedure
http://iek8wikis.iek.fz-juelich.de/HTAPWiki/HTAP-2-data-
submission
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Michael Schulz / met.no AeroCom, Hamburg , 23 September 2013
Suggestion for new experiments
ONE CONTROL experiment for all new model versions
participating in any experiment
Allows check of improvement over time
Basic diagnostics of emissions, loads, surface
concentrations, optical properties
give quick feedback on model quality
Variable participation for experiments –
clearly identify EXPERIMENTS!
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Michael Schulz / met.no AeroCom, Hamburg , 23 September 2013
Four lessons
Black Carbon
Trends
Forcing diversity
Aerosol-climate interactions
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Michael Schulz / met.no AeroCom, Hamburg , 23 September 2013
20-60N
EC surface concentrations
60% overestimated by models
in N America
Mid latitudes upper Troposphere Arctic
SP2 aircraft measurements
Co
lum
n a
bsorp
tion
50%
undere
stim
ate
d
- +
-
+
Inconsistent evaluation of black carbon in AeroCom
model intercomparison
Koch et al., ACP 2009
Schwarz et al. JGR 2010
[ Model bias ]
HIPPO aircraft Campaign
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Michael Schulz / met.no AeroCom, Hamburg , 23 September 2013
Climate forcing by Black Carbon
Bond et al, 2013
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Michael Schulz / met.no AeroCom, Hamburg , 23 September 2013
Bond et al, 2013
Where to act on Black Carbon?
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Michael Schulz / met.no AeroCom, Hamburg , 23 September 2013
Scientific work needed to clarify
BC mitigation potential
Contribute to continued joint, international scientific
assessments of BC effects; Quantify BC climate forcing, health
effects, the role of co-emitted species
Clarify uncertainties and misunderstandings, answer to
frequently asked questions on climate and air quality
benefits
Monitor over time BC-related atmospheric parameter in the
atmosphere through measurements and modelling Measurement strategy, method harmonization, supersites development
Provide emission-to-impact modelling
for sectors/scenarios/countries/regions
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Michael Schulz / met.no AeroCom, Hamburg , 23 September 2013
More work on aerosol trends ??
Trends and Forcing are linked
Multi-annual analysis allows “check in another year”
Global Emission Patterns have changed
Meteorological Variability influences Cycles
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Michael Schulz / met.no AeroCom, Hamburg , 23 September 2013
MACC reanalysis
of aerosol trends
IFS Model assimilating MODIS aqua+terra
Aeronet sun photometer ground stations
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Michael Schulz / met.no AeroCom, Hamburg , 23 September 2013
Bias evolution
of different IFS versions 2003-2012
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Michael Schulz / met.no AeroCom, Hamburg , 23 September 2013
Explanation of drift of bias?
(MODISterra-MODISaqua)/MODISaqua
2003 2012
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Michael Schulz / met.no AeroCom, Hamburg , 23 September 2013
MACC reanalysis
Angstroem exponent mean obs/IFS
IFS Model assimilating MODIS aqua+terra
Aeronet sun photometer ground stations
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Michael Schulz / met.no AeroCom, Hamburg , 23 September 2013
Sulphur trends in Europe
EMEP model and EBAS data
SO2 SO4
Wet Dep SO4
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Michael Schulz / met.no AeroCom, Hamburg , 23 September 2013
Nitrogen trends in Europe
EMEP model and EBAS data
NO2 NO3
Wet Dep OXN
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Michael Schulz / met.no AeroCom, Hamburg , 23 September 2013
Reduced Nitrogen trends in Europe
EMEP model and EBAS data
NH4
Wet Dep RDN
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Michael Schulz / met.no AeroCom, Hamburg , 23 September 2013
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Michael Schulz / met.no AeroCom, Hamburg , 23 September 2013
Have we constrained forcing estimates?
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Michael Schulz / met.no AeroCom, Hamburg , 23 September 2013
AeroCom I (Schulz et al. 2006)
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Michael Schulz / met.no AeroCom, Hamburg , 23 September 2013
AeroCom II (Myhre et al. 2013)
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Michael Schulz / met.no AeroCom, Hamburg , 23 September 2013
Sulphate life cycle
AeroCom I and II
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Michael Schulz / met.no AeroCom, Hamburg , 23 September 2013
Kiehl, GRL, 2007
CMIP3: forcing vs sensitivity
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Michael Schulz / met.no AeroCom, Hamburg , 23 September 2013
Shindell et al., ACP, 2013
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Michael Schulz / met.no AeroCom, Hamburg , 23 September 2013
Lessons learned from CMIP5
CMIP5 aerosol schemes are generally not state-of-the-art (aerosols sulfate, aerosols sulfate+BC)
Less than half of CMIP5 models diagnosed aerosol forcings (ERF, only present-day)
All CMIP5 models and simulations use the same historical aerosol emissions, hence have the same time profiles for aerosol variations => D&A, reconstructions
Not much spread in short-lived climate forcers in RCP scenarios => issue for decadal prediction
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Michael Schulz / met.no AeroCom, Hamburg , 23 September 2013
Science questions for CMIP6
What aerosol physics/chemistry is needed?
ERF aerosol-radiation interactions (especially BC)
ERF aerosol-cloud interactions
Are aerosol biogeochemical feedbacks really small?
D&A of climate response to aerosols, especially at the regional scale
Bound uncertainties in future climate change that is due to aerosols (scenarios+RF+response)
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Michael Schulz / met.no AeroCom, Hamburg , 23 September 2013
Acknowledgment II
AERONET, surface site operators, satellite teams
LSCE/Paris + MetNo/Oslo + MPIM/Hamburg + NASA
Goddard
EU projects for support
PHOENICS / EUCAARI / GEOMON / ISENES /MACC I & II /
ECLIPSE / ACTRIS
CNES, NASA, Norsk Romsenter, ESA (cci-aerosol)
New project will be funded by Norwegian Research
Council from 1.10.2013 (6.5Mio NOK)
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Michael Schulz / met.no AeroCom, Hamburg , 23 September 2013
Support by the Norwegian Research Council
(MetNo, CICERO, NILU)
AEROCOM P3 project funded 1.10.2013 -> three years
Mitigation of atmospheric particles and black carbon:
Problem or potential for future climate evolution ?
Tasks (I):
Management of international AeroCom initiative / Outreach
Complement the observational database with size distribution and CCN data
Assemble new processed satellite data into AeroCom database
Establish a multi-model reference of a completed set of aerosol parameters
Aerosol lifetime analysis using radioactive tracers of opportunity
Assessments of regional distribution and trends in inorganic aerosols
Regional trend evaluation based on optical aerosol parameters
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Michael Schulz / met.no AeroCom, Hamburg , 23 September 2013
Support by the Norwegian Research
Council (MetNo, CICERO, NILU)
Tasks (II):
Upper troposphere lifetime of BC and aerosol extinction
BC absorption evaluation integrating multiple measurement principles
Multi-model evaluation of particle size distribution and CCN concentration
Humidity growth model evaluation and verification at golden super sites
Impact of humidity growth vertical profile on forcingAerosol radiative forcing
in cloudy skies
Elaboration of a strategy to improve indirect forcing estimates
New best estimate of aerosol forcing
Assess approaches for including aerosol regulation in mitigation strategies
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Michael Schulz / met.no AeroCom, Hamburg , 23 September 2013
2nd AeroCom workshop Ispra March 2004
THANKS