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 Basic Forecasts for BD Telecom Sector Seth Godin’s (2005) one of the bestseller is All Marketers are Liars. He came up with a new hypothesis of storytelling by marketers. According to him, “Successful marketers don’t tell the truth. They don’t talk about features or even benefits. Instead, they tell a story. A story we want to believe. And, if they do it right, we believe them. We believe that wine  tastes  better  in  a  $20  glass  than  a  $1  glass. We  believe  that  an  $80,000 Porsche Cayenne is cooler than a $36,000 VW Touareg, which is virtually the same car. We believe  that $225 Pumas will make our  feet  feel better  than $20 no‐names... and 

believing it makes it true.”  While Seth Godin begins with the disarming premise that marketing people are liars, he softens that premise by stating that marketers are story tellers. Good marketers are story tellers, and like all great tales, myths, and fiction, the facts are not essential. However, in my country like many other sectors, at Telecom sector too; we find that Seth Godin’s theory is applied; knowingly or unknowingly; but they translate the subject as  it is and emphasizes on the Liar part, instead of storytelling. They believe telling a LIE to consumer is their sole purpose or the only way to sell the product or service!  

Conditions Apply: My Dear Telecom Operators, you already got me to sign on pieces of papers six 

times on both sides of a three pages form to accept innumerable Terms and Conditions, printed in such a small font which is almost impossible to read. Moreover, during the purchase of a SIM, the seller on the booth gives an impression “please sign as quick as possible” and “They never utter a single word about the Terms and Conditions”. There are already so many terms and conditions like, the buyer agrees to everything; even to something like; I agree to accept future terms and conditions that may come up”; then again, why do you show up like “Conditions Apply” at different communication materials? Well, if there are additional conditions, which will compel bound us (the consumers), why don’t you use bold and bigger fonts for “Conditions Apply” – and why do you add this when this  is a redundant clause to the so called  list  of  Terms  and  Conditions  paper where we  already  signed  to  agree?  Is  it  because,  the  additional condition is not actually condition; it’s only an attribute of the given offer/feature/value added service – which seems  to whisper  to  readers – “Look,  this  is  too good a  thing  to  refuse but  the  limitations are …….” These limitations, marketers of the Telecom Operators, now hide inside an envelope of “Conditions Apply”. This is nothing but a lie and exaggeration and re‐iteration of the so called Terms and Conditions.   

 I do hereby Forecast that, one day, the ads will appear with bold caption reading  like “No Conditions” or “Condition Free”, because, the more consumers get educated, the more they find the LIE at the envelope of “Conditions Apply”;  if the Telecom Marketers still continue to lie the consumers, there is no doubt that they would lay them down.  

  

Ownership  of  Number:  In  the  first  world,  the  SIM  number  has  been  declared  as  a consumer’s property, not of the service provider’s. This is called “Mobility of Numbers”. Days are not far when  it happens  in BD too, the LIARS will then  find users switching providers as an  immediate effect of the lying (inside envelop).  

 I do hereby make Forecast  that, by the time, the SIM number becomes consumers’ property,  learning rate of the consumers would be so high that through WOM (Word of Mouth) and Social networks, the news will spread like an epic and the switching rate will be at exponential function.  

  

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Unsolicited  Spam  SMS:  Why  do  you  (The  Telecom Operators)  try  to  sell Vandam’s Wallpaper sending unsolicited SMS; while maybe;  I am preparing  for a prayer? Who gave you the authority to take my time  and  attention  –  while  in  this  overflowed  world  of  information,  time  is  a  luxury  and  attention  is fragmented at every millisecond  for ads  from different sources? Did  I request you to update me about your latest offers? Why do you send  location based discount message  to postpaid users while  it  is applicable  for only prepaid users? As par  common  international practices, unsolicited  SMS  that  you  send  are  spam, until consumers approve receiving them.  

 I  do  hereby  make  Forecast  that,  when  we  the  consumers  would  be  very  much irritated  and  rage  out  on  the  unsolicited  SMS  issue;  you  would  realize  that,  it  is minimum  courtesy  to  take  consumers’  permission  before  sending  them  unsolicited SMS.  You  would  very  soon  be  doing  that  by  making  phone  calls  and  collecting consumers’  preferences  regarding  unsolicited  SMS.  After  all  you  cannot  dump whatever may bring you profit and snatch my time and attention. 

 Courtesy  on  Consumers’ Money: When a  consumer calls at a Customer Care of a Cell Phone Operator, s/he meets a parrot who has been programmed to start the conversation  like ”Good Morning Sir, ……. Thank you for calling us…..” the consumer may feel WOW when they greet. Aha! Someone is over there in the paranoid city of Dhaka, who has  time  to wish and  talk  to me  (the consumer) as  if  they were known  for years. Shanti! Shanti! However, all peaces get vaporized when Consumer learns that, the Telecom Agent shows courtesy at consumers’ money!! What hypocrisy!! If the Operators are truly courteous, why don’t they pay at least for the courtesy part of the call; if not for the full call? Well, during one single call of 1 minute, this courtesy part is almost 15 seconds on an average. As of May 2011, BTRC  site  says  total  active  subscriber  of  the  country  is  75.484 million.  If  a  random  figure  of  15%  of  total subscribers make a single call  to their call centers,  for one minute each, and  if  it costs BDT 1.0  (on  industry 

average), now see the figures : 75.484 million x 15% x BDT 1.0 x   seconds = BDT 2.83 million.  

And if suddenly on a specific day, 20% of the consumers make the call; consumers need to pay BDT 3.78 million and  if  it’s 25%,  it’s almost 5.0 million, which means  in simple Bangla, 50  lac taka. Who pays this 50 lac taka in a single day? Why? Can’t the operators pay for the courtesy they show to the loyal but unaware consumers? Operators behave courteous to their consumers for the expense of the consumers. What an idea!  

 I do hereby Forecast that, operators will soon realize that, phone calls made to Call Centers must be fully free. And  I am expecting to see ads  like: “Call Us for Free”. There will be rise of TOLL‐FREE Numbers.     

Waiting  Time  on Hold:  How  long does  the Call Center keep on hold while we make a call  to Call Center?  If  the  call  center parrot agents at  the  call  center are not  sufficient  in number or  if  the  IVR  cannot handle all  the call  load at a given point of  time, we need  to wait on hold and hear  that “Your  call  is  very important for us….”. If, average waiting time per call is 45 seconds. Then how much time do operators keep people waiting? 75.484 million  x 15%  x 45  seconds  ≈   509,517,000.00  seconds  ≈   8,491,950.00 minutes    ≈   141,532.50  hours ≈   5,897.19  days ≈  16.38 years ≈  1.64 Decades !! These are kind of hidden charges, which is marginally low but in macro volume very high, is a kind of falsification or the LIE.  

 I do hereby make Forecast that, consumers are not dumb and will not remain so for ever after.  Therefore,  this  kind  of  falsification will  not  sustain  –  nor will  thy  BRANDS.  Therefore, sooner or later, we shall see TVC (TV Commercials) and print ads which would read like this: 

• Our Call Center is Free: No waiting Charge : No call charge • Only 10 seconds Queue at our Helpline, or • The Shortest waiting line at our Help Line / Customer Care 

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“Cell phone usage is injurious to your ears and brains”

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Usage Hazards: Using cell phone for a longer �me, brings us headache ads to exis�ng stress level and for some people, it brings damage to ears. The preceding sentence is not yet scien�fically proved as 100%. However, nico�ne is also not the only cause for carcinoma. Yet, nico�ne products (cigare�e), need to emboss warning of health hazards on its pack as par country regula�ons.

I do hereby make Forecast that, Cell phone operators will have to mandatorily men�on about its expected health hazards, which will start at the first world and would arrive at the 3rd world when manipula�ng the authority and fooling the consumers would be over and they would do it as a “must do to survive”. Sample warning cap�ons may read like this:

I Forecast that, within five (05) years this warning will be made mandatory in the first world and at best within ten (10) years at the third (3rd) world.

Validity Period: Once there was a �me consumers had to take a 300 Taka shot every 03 weeks to keep their cell phones alive. It’s almost like taking an essen�al drug or life saving drugs at a fixed interval. A�er the 03 weeks, though consumer had a balance at his/ her account, could not use the phone un�l next recharge. Now, that phase has been bold out by entry of compe�tors into the market. The same ghost of validity is s�ll there; for different packages of ‘Internet Usage’. Can I ask my operator if I buy 1GB of data from you, why can’t I use it at my convenient �me? On what laws of the world operators make one bound to use it within validity period? It is something like, someone buys 05 KG of rice and s/he must consume them within a fixed �me. What a condi�on!!

I do hereby make Forecast that, Cell phone operators will have to remove the ghost of Validity Period very soon as the consumers get aware about the ma�er. We just need consumer awareness on the issue. Even, operators may spend money to publish ad to let us know that, they had been kind enough to remove the validity period for internet usage.

Itemized Bill for All: Since no system in the world is 100% error free, then why all the prepaid phone users should assume that their bills are perfect? Postpaid users can obtain an itemized bill for a charge (which is again a hidden charge and illogical). However, the prepaid users can’t ask for an Itemized Bill like postpaid user. Recently one operator started this in Bangladesh for prepaid users.

I do hereby make Forecast that, all cell phone operators will have to allow the prepaid users to obtain their Itemized Bill. Gradually, the charge for itemized bill will also be evaporated. Currently the bills or itemized bills for postpaid users do not show when and how much money has been recharged. Operators show itemized calls but not the payment details. My forecast suggests that operators will have to show that too, as no system is 100% error free.

Online SMS Service:

I do hereby make Forecast that, very soon, all operators will have to offer Online SMS Service with minimum 5 MB (start up) space where all inbox-dra�-sent items will be stored, including phone books, emails and other medias. The said 05 MB storage space will increase with the increase of MMS usage among consumers. Unfortunate for consumers is, the operators will charge for the online service and the storage space. And they will ask separate charges for Online Service and addi�onal storage space. The funniest thing in this online service

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would be the usual hos ng service or online storage space providers will get shy of the pricing charged by the operators for online space. Gradually, due to comp on, the operators will start lowering prices and in 3 to 5 years of period, they will offer Gigabyte space for free. And that me, the ve edge would be bandwidth of online space and security.

True and False in Marke ng I do hereby make Forecast that, over me, consumer learning speeds up and more consumer learning enhances quicker sharing of informa on. Final forecast for this

cle is, if the operators lie to the consumers (in any form), consumers will lay them down. Moreover, the more Operators would try to hide a nega ve a ribute of its product or service, the more it will spread; when efficient consumer learning and informa on sharing would prevail there.

The Last Words: In conclusion, I intend to remind that, in last May 2011, at an IT magazine I wrote about the future of Mobile Phones and how the mobile phone is going to change our life style and going to be a part of our lives. At the same cle, I also wrote the world is moving towards “Apponomics”; which is used to mean “Economics of Applica on”. In near future main profit juice would be absorbed by the different applica on developers or group of developers. No more the Telecom Industry will be ruled by the Operators. Operators will work simply as a hose pipe to flow the data from one end to the other. This is the simple truth and current a tude of the operators reflect that they are yet to realize the truth. The earlier the operators will realize and act on this, the sooner their terms & condi on, validity lock or hidden charges etc. will evaporate. However, the paradigm shi will start from the point when the mobility of numbers will be allowed. In this regard, BTRC has a vital role to play. We expect that the BTRC and concerned GOB ministry will take the issue with utmost importance for the social welfare. Authors: ANM Farukh, Researcher & Analyst Contact: Farukhrana@Gmail.com KM Aziz, Researcher Contact: Monsurulaziz@Gmail.com

Notes:We communicated famous and truth speaking several Daily Newspapers (English) in Dhaka for publishing thisas an opinion content. However, we concluded that, the newspapers live on adve ment & Cellular companies are major stakeholders.Further to note, we think we buy news every morning, but newspapers sell news as the cream sandwitched by

now that!

If readers do find any similarity of Telco offers with theforecasts, please share with us, it would be a pleasure.

December, 2011

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