1 3 1 2 Ken Knapp 1 Chris Hennon 2 Carl Schreck 3 Scott Stevens 3 Paula Hennon 3 Citizen Scientists...

1www.CycloneCenter.org

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2

Ken Knapp1

Chris Hennon2

Carl Schreck3

Scott Stevens3

Paula Hennon3

Citizen Scientists and Tropical Cyclone Activity


Collaborators-evad 00soupcat 0zeros 1223 13asiclait 18jdt01 2017fub 2017guzmb 2017katze2017mcevj 2017phils 2017randa 2017trant 2017trantr 2017whinc 2017zhanj 2017zimmg2018Schar 2018bellc 2018biroe 2018fengd 2018flyna 2018fonsd 2018groua 2018harra2018heinc 2018jacom 2018jafra 2018kathe 2018krusr 2018meikm 2018philj 2018ruizm2018russm 2018sawys 2018thoms 2018vazqa 2019carel 2019chany 2019gordd 2019guias2019komas 2019patts 2019rutll 2019smitt 2019trisi 2019trisj 2019vickn 2019waldm2019wiesm 256538 25or6to4 3Simplex 53toms 59Ballons 7bratz7 7yukari7 @nn1e k@yeAGBielawa AL150N AMeals Acebulf Acheron-494 Adddi AdoGreen Aeniah Aenima AgentQAggie92 Airik Al James AlanNokes AlexMoisan AlexxMontoya Alialamo98 AnaclaudiaAnakira AndrewTurner AndyC123 Anniebananie AntonyA Antstep Archi Ardric47 ArlonArundada Astarte Astraeus Astroskylark Atacca Athena666 AuC AuKNiFe AuclovkAuke Schuringa Auroness Autter Aymeric_1 BLC01 BMisu BTBisceglia BWD316Badoney38 Barbara Irene Bart Lutin-Smet Bay_gchan BeccaDM Belana Ben_W87BetelgeuSeginus Bishop92 Bjahrens BlackHoleMan Blanco202 BlarneyPhoneBlipBlap_of_the_Cosmos BlueHand BlueHen09 Bluedew Bob Roach Boolits BorokaiBosonwigs Boynser BrettLarsen Brianmp BrindhaKanniah Brown.AH BuddhaDaveByronFortescue C-nymph CWMiller2 Cahethel CalJames Camda5585 Captain GeronimoCaptain Video CaptainBreakfast Carlington Caro Carty75 Casbot Casna51 CatherinekChanters Charles the Great Cherrylann Chewie_Donenea Chocoholic_JediChocolate_69 ChrisJaybles ChrisMM76 Chrissie3003 Christian Reinboth ClaireCiaranClipperton Coanbu CocaBigMac Coelacanth ColdasIce ColeenB CoolMike Core XiiCosmosV. CountGeiger CrazyC83 CrazyCarlFunk CrimsonVixen Cris_Ramos CrissieHCruuux CrystaWolf [email protected] Cyberchipz CybrTed Cyclone90CycloneSteve CycloneTom D.Schroeder DCJoeS DEVO DVus1 DanDuddy DanValentineUSADaphne Nash Briggs Darkwolfdemon Daveybhoy David Steidl Dawn0902 DenkolDennisGlowacki DevonWilliams Diluvius Dinoc Dinoguy1000 DiscoNixon DoctorWhoooDontheseeker Doobler Dotyro Doug Bristol Doug49 Dr. Nicholas Rush Dronak [email protected] Dufferz Duniverse Dylzuzu EP88 Early_Bird EasthillEd Grau Einhard ElisabethB Elizabethmchristy Elmin Emeraldis EmperorMoose EnirelEquixor Erorr ErythroUnis Eskapp Eukaryote49 Ewout.130cc Ex103 FantasticBaukeFeCafe Fergie Fezman92 FinalEclipse FireFighterRB Fireside12 Flashstep FleigerFlorafloraflora Foliant Foylefiend FrancisAstro Francisco De Leon FrankensportFreedSpirit FritsKoek Froststar1 Frungo Funnybones G4m3rMatt GITO69 GabyBGaganesh Garlion Garrison1994 Gazing40 Geeklette Geognome Geosage GizmomcSGlen Baron Gmanearley Goldi GrantWishes Green-Eyes GreenWave Greenstar37Grendel72 Grimjar Grimms7 Grisou Grossi1990 Guau Gud Haberley HannyHans-Juergen Wagner Harizanov Havok10 [email protected] Hazmo HeavenPunisherHeggiedj Helenog Helice HoosierGen Hughes_Matt HurricaneGeorgia HurricaneTrackerHurricanehink Hyrina Igniris Igor_L Ikertza Imba4life Imtok Ingolme Isabel SilvaIsabelita JAColickIII JGann04 JJARS JS_99_2000 JScottL Jack Wales JakobswedeJasonJason Jay.Duffy Jchristo75 Jcjohnson Jeegan JeffNW JennBrummage JeshyrJetstar503 JimBiard JimmyMill Jmpelissero Jnoelle Joanne9 Joe Fogey Johanson69John Jo JohnathanJohnson18 JohnnySmr Jolly Rodger Jonahman10 Jonathan MarkhamJonsku99 Jordan2929 Josiah Simes Jota_Pex JuddaMan87 JudgeJudi JudiBlueJulesmarie13 Julia Bateson JupiterMercury87 JupiterN Jwa81197 Jwb52z K1EROKBroz KELaird KGuerin KJDL80 KLBusby KPeregrine KWillett Kaizer0510 KalahiraKandosii Karpantrax KateKrz Kateb999 KatherineNicole KatiaLightning KatieEMHodgeKayaker12 Kealani Kellta2 KenE Kendar05 Keoni3876 Kerry_Wallis KhalilaRedBirdKia C Kielsey17 KikiNieb Kilian_Tex Killzzy Kim Tryka KimDodd KnappsterKonfusius Koos83 Kramb.Andrew Kucana Kukbalam Kypdurron Kythen LFALLONSFALLONLPJeckley LaGeographe Labrat1978 LaneMcConnell Larry98513 LeeWx LeebrownellLenticularis LiamIrwin LiamT Lightbulb500 Lilygwen Linsley boxill LissyNumberLittlevoice LizArm Look4Star Lookingfrlife67 Lucas Orell LucretiuSimetryLucyitSwD Luke Fitzpatrick Lyane LydiaJ LynnNoE M.GOURAN MAR.S MEANA MECU MJNLMSUSpartan MacTomas Mad_Mac Mag84illfully Magerit Mahmoth Mamaganoush Mano2010Mantukeliukas Manuel Contrras Marco95 Marcos R Marlex Matara28 Mattia VergaMatty-Gee Mbrig24 McArt Me2! 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www.CycloneCenter.org

Introduction Demonstration SummaryEngagement

• Citizen science project to help understand historical tropical cyclone activity

• Participation rates are growing• Preliminary results show promise


Best Track Data

Historical record of tropical cyclone locations and intensities

Best estimate using all available data

Satellite estimates account for vast majority of the record


Tropical Cyclone Best Track Data - 2011


Yvette (1992)



Mike (1990)



How Is Typhoon Activity Changing?Emanuel (2005)Webster et al. (2005)

Wu et al. (2006)

Kossin et al. (2007)


?


The Dvorak Technique

Visual analysis of tropical cyclone satellite images

Implementation has changed over time and between agencies

Has been automated, but pattern recognition still best by human eye



Cyclone Center Overview

300,000 infrared images from

around the globeHave volunteers

apply Dvorak-like procedure

Apply QC procedures/ constraints



Demo


• Volunteers presented 6 images

• Asked simple questions about cloud structure.

• Blogs help volunteers understand • motivation• progress• science

• “Talk” forum allows users to share experience and ask questions

Which image appears stronger?


Demo


Pick the cyclone type, then choose the closest match?


Demo


The optional detailed classification can provide better analysis


Participation so far16,000 on

3rd day

Super Storm Sandy

30% of all classifications are “Detailed”

Currently ~ 500 per day


Mass GalaxyZoo email

2300 users600 storms

30,000 images135,000+ classifications

40,000 52,000 12,000 27,000


1-1011-

20

21-50

51-100

101-200201-400401-800

801-1600> 1601

Volunteers by # of Classifica-tions

Participation rates

1-10

11-20

21-50

51-100

101-200

201-400

401-800

801-1600

> 1601

No ID

Total Classifications by Volunteer Grouping


Bretarn: 5630Chrisotahal: 3835


Very preliminary results


Using preliminary analysis of initial questions No analysis using “Detailed Classification” yet

Results show similarity in time series Only validates proof of concept … much left to do.

1990 Hurricane Trudy (East Pacific)


Summary www.CycloneCenter.org


• Citizen science project to help understand historical tropical cyclone activity

• Participation rates are growing!• Preliminary results show promise!


Extra Slides


Flow ChartWhich is Stronger?

Cyclone Type and Closest Match

EyeEmbedded

Center Shear Curved Band Other

PostTropical

Edge

No Storm

Click the Center

Center Temperature

Click the Center

Choose the Color

How far doesit wrap?

Click the Center

Nearest Red Point

Click the CenterAnd Eye Size

Surrounding Color

Color at least0.5° Thick

Banding Feature

Banding Feature Distance to Convection

Introduction Method Demonstration Summary


135,000 classifications and counting about 500 per day

One-hit wonders and Superusers are both important Detailed classifications come from more

dedicated users

The road so far



Focus the classifications on 106 storms: 31 Atlantic storms from 2005 for validation 25 most uncertain Western Pacific storms 25 most uncertain South Pacific storms 25 most uncertain South Indian storms

Keep active volunteers engaged Stay active on the forums Plan “Flash Mobs” where we try to get everyone to

classify at the same time Other ideas?

The road ahead



Demo


Volunteer Contributions

0-1011-20

21-50

51-100

101-200

201-400

401-800

801-1600

> 1601

No ID

Detailed Classificationsby Volunteer Grouping


1-1011-

20

21-50

51-100

101-200201-400401-800

801-1600> 1601

Volunteers by # of Classifica-tions

1 3 1 2 Ken Knapp 1 Chris Hennon 2 Carl Schreck 3 Scott Stevens 3 Paula Hennon 3 Citizen Scientists...

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Transcript of 1 3 1 2 Ken Knapp 1 Chris Hennon 2 Carl Schreck 3 Scott Stevens 3 Paula Hennon 3 Citizen Scientists...