1 William. M. Lapenta Director, National Centers for Environmental Prediction NOAA/NWS Geoff DiMego,...
-
Upload
arnold-richard -
Category
Documents
-
view
214 -
download
0
Transcript of 1 William. M. Lapenta Director, National Centers for Environmental Prediction NOAA/NWS Geoff DiMego,...
1
William. M. LapentaDirector, National Centers for Environmental Prediction
NOAA/NWSGeoff DiMego , John Derber , Yuejian Zhu , Hendrik Tolman , Vijay Tallapragada,
Shrinivas Moorthi , Mike Ek , Mark Iredell, Stan Benjamin
NCEP
The NOAA Operational Numerical Guidance Suite:
Major Upgrade Plans for FY14 Prepared by the NCEP Environmental Modeling Center
1. Global Observing System
2. Computers (WCOSS, AWIPS2)
3. Data Assimilation, Modeling, Ensembles and Post Processing
Three Major Components of the Numerical
Prediction Enterprise….
Everything you read, see or hear about weather, climate and ocean forecasts is
based on numerical prediction
2
NOAA Operational Data Assimilation and Modeling
NOAA Science Serving Society….
NOAA Operational Numerical Guidance Supports the Agency Mission
– Numerical Weather Prediction at NOAARequired for agency to meet service-based metrics
– National Weather Service GPRA* Metrics
(* Government Performance & Results Act)Hurricane Track and Intensity Winter Storm WarningPrecipitation Threat Flood WarningMarine Wind Speed and Wave Height
– Operational numerical guidance:Foundational tools used by government, public and private
industry to improve public safety, quality of life and make business decisions that drive U.S. economic growth
3
Lead Time and
Accuracy!
Regional Hurricane
GFDLWRF-NMM
WRF(ARW, NMM)NMMB
Climate ForecastSystem (CFS)
Short-RangeEnsemble Forecast
NOAA’s Operational Numerical Guidance Suite (Jan 2014)
GFS, MOM4,NOAH, Sea Ice
North American Ensemble Forecast System
GEFS, Canadian Global Model
Dispersion HYSPLIT
Air QualityCMAQ
Regional NAMNMMBNOAH
3D-V
ARD
A
Regional Bays•Great Lakes (POM)
•N Gulf of Mexico (FVCOM)•Columbia R. (SELFE)•Chesapeake (ROMS)
•Tampa (ROMS)•Delaware (ROMS)
SpaceWeather
ENLIL4
North American Land Surface Data Assimilation
SystemNOAH Land Surface Model
Global SpectralNOAH3D
-En-
Var
DA
Global Forecast System (GFS)
3D-V
ARD
A
3D-V
ARD
A
WRF ARW
Rapid Refresh
3D-V
ARD
A
WavesWaveWatch III
Ocean HYCOM
Ecosystem EwE
Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS)21 GFS Members
ESTOFSADCIRC
SURGESLOSH
P-SURGESLOSH
WRF ARW3D-V
AR
DA
High Resolution RRNEMS Aerosol Global Component (NGAC)
GFS & GOCART
WRF(ARW, NMM) & NMMB
High Res Windows
5
24-h Cycle 01 February 2014
Numerical Guidance Suite Execution WCOSS NOAA Supercomputer
Nu
mb
er
of
No
de
s
Time of Day (UTC)
00 06 12 18 00CFS NAM GFSGEFS SREF
HyCOM
SREF Para
RAPv2 Para
RAP
NRC Recommendation I.b:NRC Recommendation I.b:
Numerical Weather Prediction:“The National Weather Service (NWS) global and regional numerical weather prediction systems should be of the highest quality and accuracy, with improvements driven by user needs and scientific advances.
To achieve this goal, the NWS should give priority to upgrading its data assimilation system and increasing the resolution of its deterministic and ensemble modeling systems.”
Can’t forget physics and Post Processing
7
The NOAA Modeling Strategy…High Level Perspective
Moving away from the “model of the day” Continue to pursue multi-model approach to ensembles
• Don’t forget: ensemble systems only as good as the modeling system it is built from
Priorities for deterministic development are clear:1. Data assimilation (methodology and observations)2. Model physics
Why do we continue to underplay this important part of the enterprise?
Clouds, microphysics, radiation, land, ocean, ice, aerosols….includes coupling
3. Resolution—horizontal and vertical4. Dynamic core
Must consider advanced HPC technologies but don’t forget about the science
Regional systems shift to convection permitting applications NOAA encouraged to consider unified modeling approach
(UCACN)
Infrastructure/DA Upgrades
Physics upgradesCombined (best of all upgrades)
H14A H14BNest motion
(H140)
NOAH LSM
(H141)
Upgraded Ferrier (H142)
RRTMG (H143)
Ocean(H144)
H214 (proposed
2014 HWRF)
Description
1. Sat Da with 61 levels, 2mb top2. Extended d02/d033. Upgraded vortex init.4. GSI upgrades
1. No Sat DA2. Include Invests in cycling
1. New nest motion & diagnostics
NOAH LSM
Separate species and F_rime advection with other upgrades
RadiationMPI-POM with new coupler
Baseline + physics + python based scripts*need to do test runs with new GFS in WCOSS
Cases
Whole 2011-2013 & selected 2008-2010 storms
Whole 2011-2013 & selected 2008-2010 storms
Priority casesPriority cases
Priority cases
Priority cases
Priority cases
Whole 2011-2013 & selected 2008-2010 storms
Due date Feb. 15 Feb. 15 Feb. 15 Feb. 15 Feb. 15 Feb. 15 Feb. 15 March 31
Platform Jet/WCOSS Jet/WCOSS Jet Jet Jet Jet Jet Jet/WCOSS
2014 HWRF pre-implementation test plan2014 HWRF pre-implementation test plan
Continuing on the same path of extensive testing of individual upgrades and their combination for multiple seasons that resulted in higher confidence in the model. Joint NHC/EMC collaboration during the pre-implementation testing. 8
9
Integrate Research Community into the Model development and Transition Proces
EMC Change Control Board•Scientific Integrity•Product Quality
•EMC Mgmt Approval•ACCOUNTABILITY
Implementation Phase• SPA’s build NCO parallel
from RFC’s•30-day NCO parallel
Test code stabilityTest dataflow
Products to NCEP Centers and EMC code developers•NCEP Centers
Evaluate impactAssessments to NCEP OD
R&D and Pre-Implementation Phase
•30-day NCO parallel stable•NCEP centers approve
•ACCOUNTABILITY•Briefing to NCEP Director
for final approval•ACCOUNTABILITY
Implementation•Generate RFC’s
•Submit RFC’s to NCO
Systematic
Systematic
Testing
Testing
10
Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project
Scope:•Improve hurricane forecast system/global forecast system to reduce error in intensity and track•Make better use of existing observing systems; define requirements for future systems to enhance research and operations capabilities and impacts•Expand and improve forecaster tools and applications to add value to model guidance
Vision•Organize the hurricane community to dramatically improve numerical forecast guidance to NHC in 5-10 years
Goals•Reduce numerical forecast errors in track and intensity by 20% in 5 years, 50% in 10 years•Extend forecast guidance to 7 days with today’s skill at 5 days•Increase probability of detecting rapid intensification at day 1 to 90% and 60% at day 5
11
Operational: Systematic assessment and testing with well defined annual development cyclesHolistic end-to-end system testedEstablished metrics and baselinesCustomers included in process—final approvalLeads to consistent incremental improvement
Research:Development based on process oriented approach driven by funding program prioritiesOften event driven (case studies)Baseline: a control run that is not a baselineStudies emphasize limited changes in the systemNo independent customer feedback--metrics
Model Development:Incremental is not a “Bad” Word…
• Operational systematic end-to-end testing
• Increasing the gap between HWRF and AHW for skill and computational efficiency
• Annual incremental improvements produce revolutionary results
2010-2012 Atlantic Basin Intensity Error (Kts)
Forecast Hour
12
Forcing Factors Shaping NOAA Operational Numerical Guidance
Emerging Requirements Weather Ready Nation High impact events Weather to climate—seamless suite of guidance and products
Science and Technology Advances Observing systems High performance computing Data dissemination Numerical Guidance Systems
Data assimilation (methodology) Modeling (physics, coupling & dynamics) Ensembles (construction—initialization, membership, etc.) Intelligent post processing
Predictability convective systems Seasonal to interannual
13
Major System Upgrades (Planned)Q1-FY14 to Q1-FY15
• List does not include NOS or MDL systems
FY15
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
North American Ensemble Forecast System NAEFS X
Global Data Assimilation/Forecast System GDAS/GFS X
Global Forecast Ensemble System GEFS XNCEP Global Aerosol NGACNorth American Model NAM X X
High-Resolution Window HiRESW X
Short Range Ensemble System SREF X XRapid Refresh RAP X XHigh-Resolution Rapid Refresh HRRR X
Real Time Mesoscale Analysis RTMA X X
HYSPLIT HYSPLIT X
Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast HWRF X
GFDL Hurricane GFDL X
North American Land Data Assimilation NLDAS X
System
FY14
Real Time Ocean Forecast System X X(2)Wave Watch III X
Acronym
RTOFSWaves
XX X
SREF Interim Upgrade PackageSystem Configuration Modifications
To Be Implemented March 2014
Initial conditions: a)replace GFS land states (too moist) with NDAS land states in NMM & ARW members; b)correct inadvertent use of global initial conditions (too moist) with use of RAP for ARW members to reduce the surface wet and cold biases
NOAH LSM: •eliminate negative soil moisture fractions for NMM and ARW members;•eliminate “urban swamp” (causing too cold surface temperature over urban regions during heat wave periods) for NMMB members
GFS physics: 2 NMMB members to produce compatible cloud & ceiling guidance with the rest of SREF members
Post-Processor: remove use of snow in diagnosing cloud base height
Mapping: (eastward shift) in NMM member’s pressure-grib output files
14
Observed 36hr (00z, Sept. 12 – 12z, Sept. 13, 2013) accumulated precipitation.
SREF Prob > 100mm (~4”)/36hr
52hr
81hr 75hr 69hr
63hr 58hr
81hr 75hr 69hr
63hr 58hr 52hr
SREF Prob > 150mm (~6”)/36hr
Application to high-impact weather:
2013 Boulder Flood
SREF consistently indicating a historical heavy rain event over Boulder, CO region days ahead (Hamill 2014; plots from Rich
Grumm)
System Current Q4FY14 FY18
GDAS 80 member @ T574 Eulerian (55 km)
80 member @ T574 SL (35 km)
4DHybrid 80 member @ T1148 SL (17 km)
Analysis @ T574 Eulerian (27 km) using T254 Eulerian ensembles
Analysis Increment @ T574 SL (35 km) using T574 SL ensembles
Analysis Increment @T1148 SL (17 km) using T1148 SL ensembles
64 Vertical Levels 64 Vertical Levels 128 Vertical Levels
Uses GFS model below Additional Obs., Improved radiative transfer, many smaller changes, uses GFS model below
Additional Obs., Cloudy Radiances, Improved QC and ob. Errors, Ensemble Hurricane relocation, uses GFS model below
GFS T574 Eulerian (27 km) to 7.5 days
T1534 SemiLagrangian (13 km) to 10 days
T2000 SemiLagrangian (10 km) to 10 days
T254 Eulerian (55 km) days 7.5 to 16
T574 SL (35 km) days 10 to 16
T1148 SL (17 km) days 10 to 16
64 Vertical Levels 64 Vertical Levels 128 Vertical Levels
Enhanced Physics Higher top, non-hydrostatic, NEMS, Coupled Ocean, enhanced physics
Global Forecast System Evolution:2014 to 2018
Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS)
• Where will we get the biggest bang for the buck?• Membership• Horizontal resolution• Vertical resolution • Perturbations
• Are reforecasts a new emerging requirement? • Will require extensive testing
18
ED-4DVAR: T254L64 Experiments
• 3DVAR: 2x100 iterations
• Hybrid 3D EnVar: 80 member T126L46 Ens., fully coupled EnKF update, TLNMC on total increment, 75% ensemble & 25% static
• Hybrid 4D EnVar: 1x150 iteration, TLNMC on all time levels, Hourly TC relocation
19
NAM• Implemented 18 October 2011
• NEMS based NMM• Parent remains at 12 km• Multiple Nests Run to ~48hr
– ~4 km CONUS nest– ~6 km Alaska nest– ~3 km HI & PR nests– ~~1.5-2km DHS/FireWeather/IMET
possible
Rapid Refresh• Scheduled implementation 20 March 2012
• WRF-based ARW• Use of GSI analysisUse of GSI analysis• Expanded 13 km Domain to include
Alaska• Experimental 3 km HRRR
RUC-13 CONUS domain
WRF-Rapid Refresh domain – 2010
Original CONUS domain
Experimental 3 km HRRR
NCEP Mesoscale Modelingfor CONUS:
Verification from 1 October 2013 – 15 January 201424-h QPF scores(24-60 h Forecasts)
Pre
ssu
re (
mb
)
Vector Wind RMS (m/s)12km CONUS
Day 1 = BlackDay 2 = RedDay 3 = Blue
• Physics Modifications:• GWD/mountain blocking; more responsive to
sub-grid scale terrain variability
• BMJ convection : moister convective profiles, convection triggers less, increase 12 km bias
• RRTM radiation, latest version
• Ferrier-Aligo microphysics, tuned to improve severe storm depiction
• Improved snow depth algorithm in LSM
Test Results for NAM FY14 Upgrade Package
• Data Assimilation Modifications:• Hybrid variational-ensemble analysis with global
EnKF
• New satellite bias correction algorithm (same as in FY14 global upgrade)
• Cloud/radar assimilation in NDAS (planned)20
Ops
Parallel
6 8 10 12
.01 .10 .50.25 1.0.75 2.01.5 3.0 4.0
Precipitation Threshold (Inches)
BIAS
Equitable Threat
.01 .10 .50.25 1.0.75 2.01.5 3.0 4.0
Precipitation Threshold (Inches)
12-km Ops12-km Para4-km Ops4-km Para
12-km Ops12-km Para4-km Ops4-km Para
4
Rapid Refresh and HRRRNOAA hourly updated models
13km Rapid Refresh (RAP)
(mesoscale)
3km HRRR (storm-scale)
High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Scheduled NCEPImplementation 15 July 2014
Version 2 – scheduled NCEP implementationQ2 (25 Feb 14)
RAP
HRRR
Courtesy of Stan Benjamin 21
DataAssimilation
AssimilationType
PBL Pseudo Innovations
Soil Adjustment
Low-Cloud Building
Snow Cover Building
Lightning Obs(radar refl proxy)
Tower/Nacelle/Sodar Obs
RAPv1 GSI 3D-VAR No No No No No No
RAPv2 GSI EnKF-3DVARHybrid Yes Yes Yes Yes + rev
trimming Yes Yes
Model Version Horiz/VertAdvection
ScalarAdvection
Upper-LevelDamping
SW RadiationUpdate Land Use LSM PBL Microphysics Radiation
LW/SW
RAPv1 WRF-ARW V3.2+ 5th/3rd Monotonic w-Rayleigh
0.02 30 min USGS RUC 6-lev MYJ Thompson
V3.1RRTM/
Goddard
RAPv2 WRF-ARWv3.4.1+ 5th/5th Positive-
Definitew-Rayleigh
0.2 10 min MODISFractional
RUC 9-lev MYNN Thompson
v3.4.1RRTM/
Goddard
Major changes for RAPv2 Assimilation •hybrid ensemble assimilation•soil/PBL/surface/cloud assimilation
Model – - land-surface, PBL, cloud physics
RAPv2 enhancements from RAPv1
Courtesy of Stan Benjamin 22
Summary: RAPv2 vs. RAPv1
RMS vector wind errorVs. raobsSep-Nov 2013
Winds -- Consistent RAPv2 improvement, for both upper-air and surface
Moisture -- Improved RAPv2 RH forecasts aloft. Reduced RMS 2m dewpoint error, more so at night
Temperature -- Similar RAPv2 skill for upper-air. Improved skill for surface in warm seasonPrecipitation and clouds – Improvement for precipitation, slight improvement for ceiling
RAPv1 vs. RAPv2
RAPv2better
RAPv1better
Courtesy of Stan Benjamin 23
Model Version Assimilation Radar DA RadiationLW/SW Microphysics Cumulus
Param PBL LSM
RAP WRF-ARW v3.4.1+
GSI Hybrid 3D-VAR/Ensemble 13-km DFI RRTM/
GoddardThompson
v3.4.1 G3 + Shallow MYNN RUC 9-lev
HRRR WRF-ARWv3.4.1+ GSI 3D-VAR 3-km
15-min LHRRTM/
GoddardThompson
v3.4.1 None MYNN RUC 9-lev
Model Horiz/VertAdvection
ScalarAdvection
Upper-LevelDamping
6th Order Diffusion
SW RadiationUpdate Land Use MP Tend
LimitTime-Step
RAP 5th/5th Positive-Definite
w-Rayleigh0.2
Yes0.12 10 min MODIS
Fractional 0.01 K/s 60 s
HRRR 5th/5th Positive-Definite
w-Rayleigh0.2 No 5 min MODIS
Fractional 0.07 K/s 20-23 s
RAPv2 vs. HRRR – hourly updated
Model Run at: Domain Grid Points Grid Spacing Vertical Levels
Pressure Top
Boundary Conditions Initialized
RAP GSD,NCO
North America 758 x 567 13 km 50 10 mb GFS Hourly (cycled)
HRRR GSD, NCO Jul 2014 CONUS 1799 x
1059 3 km 50 20 mb RAP Hourly - RAP(no-cycle)
Courtesy of Stan Benjamin 24
13-km 6hr RAP reflectivity forecast HRRR 6hr reflectivity forecast
13-kmResolution
ParameterizedConvection
3-kmResolution
ExplicitConvection
HRRR (and RAP) Future MilestonesHRRR Milestones3-km HRRR – applications to aviation, severe weather, energy
ACCURATESTORM
STRUCTURE
ACCURATE ESTIMATE OFPERMABILITY
NOSTORM
STRUCTURE
NO ESTIMATE OF PERMEABILITY
07 June 2012
5 PM EDTRadar
observedCourtesy of Stan Benjamin 25
26
NCEP working with a team across NWS to make a set of 2-D fields on the 2.5km CONUS NDFD grid available in AWIPS and on NOAAPORT as close to Day 1 as possible
Requirements for the dataset are being driven by the field, but will be limited by the current capacity of the Satellite Broadcast Network (SBN). I suspect we'll have a phase 1, and then an expansion of fields after the upcoming SBN expansion
We will also put 2-D and 3-D output grids on the NCEP ftp server
Operational HRRR Data Distribution
27
• Model changes– 3-model system becomes 2-model system (NMMB and ARW)– Increase in both horizontal (16km to 12-14km) and vertical resolution
(35 to 45 levels)– Newer model version (3.4.1. to 3.4.2)
• Forecast diversity enhancement – Use three control analyses (GDAS, NDAS, RR)– Increasing physics diversity– Use of EnKF IC perturbations from hybrid Ens-VarGSI ensemble– Adding stochastic physics perturbation
• Post processing/calibration – Improve ensemble clustering algorithm (continuity in time)
• Ensemble products– Adding “Ensemble Anomaly Forecast” using climatology data – Adding more output fields tailored for renewable energy and dispersion
modeling communities
FY15 SREF Upgrade Attributes
GOALS
• Extend NEMS to be a flexible, unified, coupled operational framework that links NOAA modeling centers (EMC, GFDL, CPC, ESRL, SWPC)
• Initiate development of CFSv3 and improve predictive capability for medium range and longer time scales
• Promote interoperability and knowledge transfer across NOAA, DoD, NASA, NSF, and other agencies by using community interface standards
MODELING SYSTEM
• Models: NEMS GFS/GSM and NMM-B atmospheres+ HYCOM and MOM5 oceans + sea ice CICE model
• Infrastructure: ESMF-based, with additional conventions from the NUOPC consortium
• Timeline: Beginning scientific validation March 2014
MORE INFORMATION https://www.earthsystemcog.org/projects/nuopc/ncepplans
NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS)Ocean and Ice Coupling
Courtesy of Cecelia DeLuca
29
Things That Keep Me Up at Night…
How will the suite evolve as the resolution of the global systems increase?• GFS capable of satisfying NAM requirements?• GEFS capable of satisfying SREF requirements?• Non-hydrostatic global model and medium range reforecasts from
GEFS becoming new requirements?
Will the regional systems shift to convection permitting applications?• HRRRE & NARRE capable of satisfying WOF requirements
What will the week 3+ to seasonal guidance system look like?• Can/should GEFS be extended to 30-days? (coupling required?)• What level of complexity is required in CFS?• Can the NMME be developed and sustained?
How does all the above impact down stream systems? How can NOAA engage the scientific community effectively? How can NOAA engage the stakeholders effectively?
NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction
30
A.K.A.—the new building….• Four-story, 268,762 square foot
building in Riverdale, MD will house 800+ Federal employees, and contractors
• 5 NCEP Centers (NCO, EMC, HPC, OPC, CPC)
• NESDIS Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR)
• NESDIS Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB)• OAR Air Resources Laboratory
• Includes 465 seat auditorium & conference center, library, deli, fitness center and health unit
• Includes 40 spaces for visiting scientists
• Represents a “Game Changer” in our ability to do business