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Why ABoVE?

Eric Kasischke, Scott Goetz, John Kimball, Michelle Mack

6 October 2011

2011 NASA Carbon Cycle & Ecosystems Joint Science Workshop

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1. Recent changes in climate are causing significant and novel changes to arctic/boreal ecosystems over large areas

that have widespread impacts on society

Permafrost thaw is leading to shrinkage of lakes and mobilizing frozen carbon

(Photo: G. Grosse)

The Slave Lake, Alberta fire in May 2011 was the second largest natural disaster in Canadian history (>$750 million) (Photo: National Post - news.nationalpost.com)

Mountain pine beetle outbreaks have accelerated and are spreading (Source: Univ. of Alberta)

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2. Complex interactions are the norm, with many critical feedbacks to regional and global climate

•How rapidly will permafrost warm?

•What are the impacts of permafrost warming?

• Is there a methane tipping point?

• What controls burning of organic soils in tundra, forests & peatlands?

Photo: M. Kanevskiy

Large stocks of soil carbon Widespread permafrost

Grosse et al. 2011

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Ecosystem Dynamics

Atmosphere/Climate

Disturbance

Surface Hydrology

Permafrost

Land Surface/Subsurface

Soil Carbon

Land-Atmosphere Feedbacks

Human Dimensions / Impact Assessment

3. Addressing key uncertainties requires transdisciplinary research in a number of areas unique to HNL regions

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4. Models of key arctic/boreal processes do not adequately explain current impacts nor can they project future impacts

• Additional research is needed to– Address known areas of uncertainty (the known unknowns; e.g.

ground-layer processes)– Identify novel and new patterns of landscape change and

ecosystem reorganization (the unknown unknowns; e.g. tipping points)

• Crucial data sets are needed to drive and independently to assess models

• An integrated modeling approach is needed (e.g., the Community Land Model [left])

source: http://www.cesm.ucar.edu/models/clm/

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5. Remote sensing data are essential for addressing uncertainties and informing and assessing models

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5. Remote sensing data are essential for addressing uncertainties and informing and assessing models

1. Longer-term satellite image data (Landsat, AVHRR)

2. New satellite systems scheduled for launch over the next few years (SMAP, IceSat2, OCO-2)

3. NASA Earth Venture missions (CARVE, AirMOSS)

4. Use of airborne remote sensing data to provide unique information products and to prepare for future missions (e.g., DESDynI and HyspIRI)

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6. ABoVE provides a means to coordinate northern high latitude research conducted by a broad coalition of national

& international organizations

NSF PPDOE NGEEUSGS YRB

NCAR

FWS, NPS, DOI CCRC

DOD SERDPNOAA

International Participation IARC, NRCAN NGOs

Monitoring/Assessment

Basic Research

ABoVE

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ABoVE Study Domain and

Nested Design

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ABoVE Study Domain and

Nested Design

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Possible ABoVE Timeline