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Transcript of 1 Washington State Energy Past / Present / Future Tim Stearns Senior Energy Policy Specialist...
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Washington State Energy Past / Present / Future
Tim StearnsSenior Energy Policy SpecialistWashington State Department of [email protected]
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people
cost
secure
sustainable
pollution
portability
reliability
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Energy
EnvironmentEconomy
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“…Americans generally won't acknowledge conflicts and make choices. The cry is for low prices, ample supplies, absolute reliability, clean air, no disfiguring construction projects, local autonomy and national accountability. Great. Unfortunately, there are tensions among all these goals.”
Paul Samuelson, Washington Post, August 20, 2003
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Washington State’s Energy Profile
Washington’s emerging challenges
• State grows 130,000 people per year• 1.3 million per decade – double < 50 yr • 273 to house, feed, employ, transport, educate…• 300 new megawatts per year• Can we double system in 50 years?• No new dams sites – 15,000 miles lines• New subdivision – apartment• Car culture – walkable communities?
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Expenditures on Fossil Fuels Washington State: 1999-2008
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
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2
4
6
8
10
12
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1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Bill
ion
s o
f do
llars
per
yea
r
Year
Fossil fuels, constant 2008 dollarsFossil fuel expenditures as % GSP
Excludes fuel taxes, refinery and pipeline costs and profits Sources: EIA, BEA and Sightline
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• Today• 11 million people• Largest hydrosystem • Fossil fuel
transportation• imported• Car based• Plenty of inefficiency• Centralized generation
• Future• 20 + million• Integrated system• Clean fuel
• Locally produced• Transit and vehicles• Zero energy buildings• distributed
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Energy is a Big Part of “Green” Jobs
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people
heat
light
cooking
manufacturing
transportation
information
The Science of Climate Change is Very Strong
“Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures
since the mid-20th century is very likely due to theobserved increase in anthropogenic GHG concentrations.”
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007 Synthesis Report
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Electricity Consump-tion, 18.9
19.9%
Residential, Com-mercial & Industrial,
19.4 20.5 %Transportation, 44.5
46.9%
Fossil Fuel, 0.9 0.9%
Industrial Processes, 3.3
3.5 %
Waste Management 2.4 2.5 %
Agriculture, 5.4 5.7%
WA Greenhouse Gas Emissions (2005)
Total = 94.8 million metric tons CO2-equivalent
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State Targets - Reduce Emissions Grow Our Economy
By 2020 reduce GHG emissions to 1990 levels
By 2035 reduce emissions to 25% below 1990 levels
By 2050 reduce emissions to 50% below 1990 levels
By 2020 increase the number of clean energy sector jobs to 25,000 from the 8,400 jobs in 2004
By 2020 reduce expenditures by 20% on fuel imported into the state
Efficiency
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“Six Americas”—six groups or “publics”beliefs, attitudes, risk perceptions, motivations, values,
policy preferences, behaviors and barriers to action
1. Alarmed—16 percent of Americans—are eager to get on with solutions
2. Concerned—29 percent—know climate change is happening, human caused and serious, but they don’t necessarily see the urgency. 3. Cautious—25 percent—happening natural or human-caused.
4. Disengaged—8 percent—have heard of global warming but don’t know
5. Doubtful—13 percent—don’t think it’s happening, or natural.
6. Dismissive—8 percent—convinced not happening, hoax or a plot.
Listen - values - motivations common ground.
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Energy efficiency always should be America’s highest-
priority energy resource.Cheapclean
reliablesecure
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Energy Consumption per Dollar of Gross State Product (1990-2003)
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Ind
ex, 2
000
=1
SIC DefinitionsNIACS Definitions
Source: EIA SEDS, US BEA, CEA
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Energy Consumption Per Capita (1970-2003)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Mill
ion
Btu
per
Ca
pit
a
WAUSWA - resid
Source: EIA SEDS, WA OFM
Conservation is Cost-effective Under Many Different Future Scenarios
$0-$100 Carbon
Current Pol-icy
No Climate Policy
No RPS Retire Coal $100 Carbon
$20 Carbon $0-$50 Carbon
Dam Ro-
moval
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
Av
era
ge
Me
ga
wa
tts
Source: NW Power and Conservation Council - Draft 6th Plan26
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Renewable Energy
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Washington’s First Renewable “Revolution”
• Much of WA Post WWII Economy Tied to Inexpensive Renewable Electricity – Aluminum Industry– Defense Industry– Forest Products, Chemical– Rural Electrification
CA: 33% by 2020
Renewable Portfolio Standards
State renewable portfolio standard
State renewable portfolio goal
www.dsireusa.org / October 2009
Solar water heating eligible *† Extra credit for solar or customer-sited renewables
Includes non-renewable alternative resources
WA: 15% by 2020*
☼ NV: 25% by 2025*
☼ AZ: 15% by 2025
☼ NM: 20% by 2020 (IOUs)
10% by 2020 (co-ops)
HI: 40% by 2030
☼ Minimum solar or customer-sited requirement
TX: 5,880 MW by 2015
UT: 20% by 2025*
☼ CO: 20% by 2020 (IOUs)
10% by 2020 (co-ops & large munis)*
MT: 15% by 2015
ND: 10% by 2015
SD: 10% by 2015
IA: 105 MW
MN: 25% by 2025(Xcel: 30% by 2020)
☼ MO: 15% by 2021
WI: Varies by utility;
10% by 2015 goal
MI: 10% + 1,100 MW by 2015*
☼ OH: 25% by 2025†
ME: 30% by 2000New RE: 10% by 2017
☼ NH: 23.8% by 2025☼ MA: 15% by
2020+ 1% annual increase(Class I Renewables)RI: 16% by 2020
CT: 23% by 2020
☼ NY: 24% by 2013
☼ NJ: 22.5% by 2021
☼ PA: 18% by 2020†
☼ MD: 20% by 2022☼ DE: 20% by 2019*☼ DC: 20% by 2020
VA: 15% by 2025*
☼ NC: 12.5% by 2021 (IOUs)
10% by 2018 (co-ops & munis)
VT: (1) RE meets any increase in retail sales by
2012; (2) 20% RE & CHP by 2017
29 states &
DC have an RPS
6 states have goals
KS: 20% by 2020
☼ OR: 25% by 2025 (large utilities)*
5% - 10% by 2025 (smaller utilities)
☼ IL: 25% by 2025
WV: 25% by 2025*†
We’re Number 4!
Source : American Wind Energy Assoc. (12.31.09) 30
Resource Costs: Long Term
Conserv
atio
n
Heat R
ecove
ry
Landfil
l Gas
Geo
ther
mal
Win
d (MT L
ocal)
New H
ydro
Combin
ed C
ycle
Animal
Was
te
Win
d (OR/W
A)
MT W
ind >
WA/O
R via
CTS
Ultras
upercr
itica
l Coal
(ID)
Win
d (ID)
Advance
d Nucl
ear
MT W
ind >
S. I
D
IGCC (I
D)
Woody
Resid
ue
WW
TP Bio
gas
AB Win
d > O
R/WA
MT W
ind >
OR/W
A
IGCC (C
SS) via
CTS
NV CSP >
S. I
D
NV CSP >
OR/W
A
Utility
-sca
le P
V (S. I
D)0
50
100
150
200
250Emissions
Transmission & Losses
Integration
Plant Cost
Le
ve
lize
d L
ife
-cy
cle
Co
st
($2
00
6/M
Wh
r)
Source: NW Power and Conservation Council – Draft 6th Plan 31
Initiative 937 – Energy Independence Act
• Sets the Policy Framework for Utility Development of Renewable Electricity
• 3% of Total Load by 2009• 9% by 2012• 15% by 2020 • State’s large electric utilities must develop
conservation plans to acquire all cost effective conservation
• First plan must be completed by Jan. 1, 2010 and set targets for 2010-2012 biennium
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Bioenergy Development
• Biodiesel Facilities• Anaerobic Digesters• Research on Alternative Feedstocks• Bioenergy • Biomass CHP
Not in My Backyard ! !
• I
Gregoire approves wind-power project
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Lies, Damn Lies & Statistics
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"In preparing for battle, I have always found that plans are useless, but
planning is indispensable."
–General Dwight D. Eisenhower 41
A successful state energy strategy
balance goals to:• Maintain competitive energy prices• Increase competitiveness • Meet the state's enivronmental goals• Be sustainable
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1. Policy
2. Mandates - create markets
3. Tax incentives
4. regulation
5. Leverage partnersa. Private sector
b. Federal government
Framework for success - alignment
Clean Energy Leadership Council • Advisory group of clean energy industry leaders• Charged – How does the state build its clean energy
industry?• Four major opportunity areas
– Smart Grid– Energy Efficiency– “Green” building and the built environment– Sustainable biomass, biofuels, Bioproducts
• Major study by Navigant Consulting – Fall ‘10
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Align Core Mission Grow and improve
jobs in Washington
Align Policies and Execution Policy and Innovation
Unit within Commerce “Sector Lead”
Major State Energy Programs (ARRA)• Low-Income Weatherization $59 million• State Energy Program (SEP)$60 million
– $38.5 million for Loan and Grant– $14. 5 neighborhood Energy Efficiency– $5 million credit enhancement for energy efficiency– $500k for farm efficiency tools
• State and Local Energy Efficiency and Conservation Block Grants $56 million – Most directly to large local government and tribes– $6.4 million to small cities and counties– Transportation planning grants– Resource Conservation Manager grants
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Major State Energy Programs (ARRA) • State and Local Block EE Block Grant
Competitive– $390 million to 8 to 20 district energy efficiency
projects– 5 to 1 leverage– Large cities, counties, tribes, state– Residential and commercial sector energy efficiency – Also $ 63 million to small cities/counties for energy
efficiency
• Appliance Rebate Program $6.2 million • Energy Assurance $810,000• Utility Commission Assistance $900,000 47
What’s on the Horizon?
1. Will natural gas have a new (old) role?
2. Have high gasoline prices (and the recession) permanently altered demand?
4. When will be have a price on carbon? Can we massively increase investment in efficiency?
5. What are the next big technological breakthroughs? – Electric vehicles– Next generation biofuels– Inexpensive photovoltaics– Zero energy buildings
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- $ Savings
- New services
- Reliability
- Security
- Efficiency
- Environment
- Safety
Smart Energy
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Key Trends/Observations - Energy
• Building Energy Efficiency– Largely driven by building codes and appliance standards– Moving toward more efficient building with generation included– Best building practices integrate envelope, hvac, lighting and occupants– Efficiency activity driven by utility rebates, programs and public investment
• Transportation Electrification– Washington State is involved in one of the largest demonstration of electric
vehicles, charging infrastructure, energy storage (batteries) – Key challenge will be integrating with the existing electric system– Creating opportunities in Software, Composites, Smart Grid
• Wind Energy– State is working with companies to capture more of the wind value chain – spare
parts, operations, maintenance and training– East central, Southeast and the Gorge continue to draw development. – Diverse partners coming together for the world’s largest wind tradeshow. – Manufacturers attempting to apply excess capacity to this new sector
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• Smart Grid– Region involved in the largest smart grid demonstration project– Grid investments will be key to integrating renewable energy
• Biofuels / bioeconomy – Significant aviation biofuel project to fulfill 15% of Seatac’s
usage– Public fleets expanding use; nearing 20% on-road use in
western WA
• State Energy /Strategy / Clean Energy Leadership Council– Analyzing all fuels and sectors– Retain hydro power advantage – clean & cost-effective– Innovate new technologies and approaches– Build on the region’s strength
Reinvent fire
• Produce• Transmit• Use
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Contact
Tim Stearns
Senior Energy Policy Specialist
Washington State Department of Commerce
206-256-6121
www.commerce.wa.gov/energy