1 U.S. EPA Office of Atmospheric Programs Climate Change: Tackling Non-CO 2 Greenhouse Gases Christa...

1U.S. EPA Office of Atmospheric Programs

Climate Change: Tackling Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases

Christa Clapp, U.S. EPA

U.S. Embassy, Paris

July 12, 2007


Overview

•Importance of non-CO2 GHGs

•Technical and economic analysis of non-CO2 GHGs

•Inventory

•Projections

•Mitigation

•Scenarios

•Addressing project level barriers through voluntary partnerships

•Conclusions


Importance of Non-CO2 GHGs


Non-CO2 Gases - Important Contributors to GHG Effect

Non-CO2 GHGs have contributed ~30% of total anthropogenic emissions since pre-industrial times

High GWP Gases0.4%N2O

7.1%

CO2

69.6%

CH4

22.9%

Contribution of Anthropogenic Emissions of Greenhouse Gases to the Enhanced Greenhouse Effect from Pre-industrial to Present (measured in

watts/meter2) (IPCC)


Increasing Concentrations of GHGs in the Atmosphere

•Global atmospheric concentrations of CO2, CH4 and N2O have increased markedly as a result of human activities since 1750•Now far exceed pre-industrial values as determined from ice cores spanning many thousands of years

Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007)


Non-CO2 Gases Vary in Potency & Atmospheric Lifetime

Greenhouse Gas

Global WarmingPotential for

100 yearsAtmospheric

Lifetime (years)

Carbon Dioxide CO2 1 50-200

Methane CH4 21 12 +/- 3

Nitrous Oxide N2O 310 120

Hydrofluorocarbons HFCs 140 - 11,700 1.5 - 264

Perfluorocarbons PFCs 6,500 - 9,200 3,200 - 50,000

Sulfur Hexafluoride SF6 23,900 3,200


Current Snapshot of Non-CO2 GHG Emissions

Global GHG Emissions in 2000 = 40,702 MtCO2e

CO2 - Fuel

and Cement55%

CH4

16%

CO2 - Land

Use Change and Forestry

19%

CFCs, HFCs,

PFCs, SF6

1%

N2O

9%

Non-CO2 gases constituted ~25% of global GHG emissions in 2000


Non-CO2 Gases Originate From a Variety of Sources

METHANE NITROUS OXIDE HIGH GWP GASES

ENERGY• Coal Mining Activities• Natural Gas and Oil Systems• Stationary and Mobile Combustion• Biomass Combustion

INDUSTRIAL• Chemical Production• Iron and Steel Production• Metal Production• Mineral Products• Petrochemical Production• Silicon Carbide Production

AGRICULTURE• Manure Management• Enteric Fermentation• Rice Cultivation• Agricultural Soils• Field Burning of Agricultural Residues• Prescribed Burning of Savannas

WASTE• Landfilling of Solid Waste• Wastewater• Solvent and Other Product Use• Waste Combustion

ENERGY• Biomass Combustion• Stationary and Mobile

Combustion

INDUSTRIAL• Adipic Acid and Nitric Acid

Production• Metal Production• Miscellaneous Industrial

Processes

AGRICULTURE• Manure Management• Agricultural Soils• Field Burning of Agricultural

Residues• Prescribed Burning of

Savannas

WASTE• Human Sewage• Fugitives from Solid Fuels• Fugitives from Natural Gas and• Oil Systems• Solvent and Other Product Use• Waste Combustion

INDUSTRIAL• Substitutes for Ozone-Depleting

Substances (HFCs, PFCs)• HCFC-22 Production (HFC-23)• Primary Aluminum Production

(PFCs)

• Magnesium Manufacturing (SF6)

• Electrical Power Systems (SF6)

• Semiconductor Manufacturing (HFC, PFCs, SF6)


Methane – A Potent GHG and Valuable Resource

Global Sources of Methane in 2000

•A primary constituent of natural gas and a valuable, relatively clean-burning energy source

•Sources include: landfills, natural gas and petroleum systems, agricultural activities, coal mining, stationary and mobile combustion, wastewater treatment, and certain industrial processes.


Technical and Economic Analyses:

Inventory, Projections and Mitigation


Non-CO2 Gases have Economic and Policy Benefits

Incorporation of Non-CO2 Gases into climate economic analysis has provided important insights– Non-CO2 gases originate from a range of economic

sectors, far more diverse than CO2

– Mitigation costs are typically lower than for energy-related CO2

– The result: a large and diverse portfolio of mitigation options and the potential for reduced costs for a given climate policy objective


7,2627,1047,0657,0276,9206,8566,831

6,5716,5196,4446,2866,1866,242

6,931 7,147 7,204

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Tg C

O2

Eq.

HFCs, PFCs, & SF

Nitrous Oxide

Methane

Carbon Dioxide

6

USEPA GHG Inventory Program: Essential Emissions Data

• Develop national GHG inventory (all gases, sources, sectors)

• Leadership on development of estimation methodologies

• Adapt national methods for disaggregated inventories (i.e., states, sectors) & accounting for partnership programs, and GHG projects

Source: Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2005 (EPA #430-R-07-002)


Global Projections of Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases

• Provides a consistent and comprehensive estimate of global non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions, covering:

– All non-CO2 greenhouse gases (methane, nitrous oxide, high GWP gases)

– Over ninety individual countries and eight regions– all emitting sectors (energy, waste, agriculture, and

industrial processes)– Covers historic and projected emissions from 1990 to

2020– Provides information that can be used to understand

national contributions of GHG emissions, historical progress on reductions, and mitigation opportunities

• Report has undergone an external peer review • Report and data available on USEPA’s website:

http:/www.epa.gov/nonco2/econ-inv/international.html

Global Anthropogenic Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions: 1990–2020

(USEPA, 2006)


Global Non-CO2 GHG Projections

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Glo

ba

l N

on

-CO

2 E

mis

sio

ns

(M

tCO

2e

q)

EU-15

United States

Rest of OECD90 & EU

Non-EU Eastern Europe & FSU

China/CPA

SE Asia

Middle East

Latin America

Africa

More developed regions show sustained levels of non-CO2 emissions, while less developed regions show projected emissions growth.


Global Non-CO2 GHG Projections

•Competing effects in Waste sectors keeps emission projections flat:

•Growing population trends mean more waste emissions

•Countered by increasing landfill controls & recycling, particularly in developed nations

•Growing emission trends in Energy, Industry & Agriculture sectors, as population grows and energy use per capita increases

Global Non-CO2 GHG Emissions by Source Category

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

MtC

O2e

q

Waste Energy Industry Agriculture


Global Mitigation of Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases

• Recent focus on multi-gas strategies calls for – improved understanding of mitigation potential– incorporation of non-CO2 greenhouse gas mitigation

estimates in climate economic analyses, including “offsets” analyses and integrated assessment climate scenarios modeling

• USEPA has developed a comprehensive global mitigation analysis for non-CO2 GHGs, covering:

– all non-CO2 greenhouse gases (methane, nitrous oxide, high GWP gases)

– all emitting sectors (energy, waste, agriculture, and industrial processes)

– all regions of the world• Based on baseline emission projections from EPA’s sister

non-CO2 projections report

• Reports have undergone an external peer review • Reports and data available on USEPA’s website:

http:/www.epa.gov/nonco2/econ-inv/international.html

Global Mitigation of Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases

(USEPA, 2006)


Mitigation Cost Analysis Methodology

T

tt

T

tt DR

RCTRCC

DR

TBRERPTR

11 1

1

1

1

–Bottom-up analysis of mitigation option breakeven prices–Determines at what carbon price a mitigation option becomes economically viable–Breakeven price is where NPV (benefits of the option) = NPV (costs of implementing the option)–Breakeven price points form a marginal abatement curve (MAC), reflecting the economic potential for mitigation at various carbon prices


Aggregate Results – Global MAC

Mitigation of non-CO2 gases can play an important role in climate strategies.

– Worldwide, the potential for cost-effective non-CO2 greenhouse gas abatement is significant (> 500 MtCO2eq).

– As the breakeven price rises, the mitigation potential grows. The global mitigation potential at a price of $10/tCO2eq is approximately 2,000 MtCO2eq.

– In the higher range of breakeven prices, the MAC becomes steeper, and less mitigation potential exists for each additional increase in price.

– Negative breakeven price points indicate options that are cost effective without a carbon price, but may not be deployed in the market due to information or other barriers

Global Total Aggregate MAC in 2020


Aggregate Results – MACs by Sector

Globally, the sectors with the greatest potential for mitigation of non-CO2 greenhouse gases are the energy and agriculture sectors.

– At a breakeven price of $10/tCO2eq, the potential for reduction of non-CO2 greenhouse gases is greater than 750 MtCO2eq in the energy sector, and approximately 500 MtCO2eq in the agriculture sector.

– While less than that of the energy and agriculture sectors, mitigation potential in the waste and industrial process sectors can play an important role, particularly in the absence of a carbon price incentive.

Global 2020 MACs by Major Sector


Aggregate Results – MACs by GHG

Methane mitigation has the largest potential across all the non-CO2 greenhouse gases.

– At a cost-effective level, the potential for methane mitigation is greater than 500 MtCO2eq.

– The potential for reducing methane emissions grows three-fold as the breakeven price rises from $0 to $20/tCO2eq.

– While less than that of methane, nitrous oxide and high-GWP gases exhibit significant cost-effective mitigation potential.

Global 2020 MACs by Greenhouse Gas Type


Aggregate Results – MACs by Region

Major emitting countries of the world offer large potential mitigation opportunities.

– China, the United States, the European Union, India and Brazil emit the most non-CO2 greenhouse gases. As the largest emitters, they also offer important mitigation opportunities.

– These countries show significant mitigation potential in the lower range of breakeven prices, with the MACs getting steeper in the higher range of breakeven prices as each additional ton of emissions becomes more expensive to reduce.

Global 2020 MACs by Major Emitting Countries


EMF-21: Cost-effective non-CO2 mitigation

Source: Weyant and de la Chesnaye (2006)

Stabilization at 4.5 W/m2 by 2100

Stanford University’s Energy Modeling Forum

Working Group 21 (EMF-21)

•Coordinated international modeling effort•18 models run using a consistent approach•Time horizon out to 2100 for most models

•Incorporated new non-CO2 emissions and mitigation data into economy-wide models•Focused specifically on multiple gas strategies•Results published in special issue of Energy Journal, Multi-Greenhouse Gas Mitigation and Climate Policy


EMF-21: Cost-effective non-CO2 mitigation

Ratio of Carbon Permit Price in Multigas Scenario vs. CO2-Only Scenario

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

AIM

AMIGA

COMBAT

EDGE

EPPA

GEMINI-E3

GRAPE

GTEM

IMAGE

IPAC

MERGE

MESSAGE

MiniCAM

PACE

POLES

SGM

WIAGEM

Note: EPPA model reports in 1997 USD. All other models report 2000 USD values. FUND model results show higher carbon prices in the multigas scenarios. FUND results are not show n in this graphic due to scale. Source: Weyant and de la Chesnaye (2006)

•Model results show lower carbon prices in Multigas Scenarios versus CO2-only Scenarios (for 17 out of 18 models).

•Majority of results indicate 20-60% lower carbon permit prices in the Multigas Scenarios.


IPCC Fourth Assessment Report “Mitigation of Climate Change”

Source: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Working Group III, “Mitigation of Climate Change”

Including non-CO2 mitigation options provides greater flexibility and cost-effectiveness for achieving stabilization.


Continuing Efforts in Non-CO2 Analysis

•Purdue University’s Global Trade Analysis Project

•Working with EPA towards a non-CO2 emissions database that is integrated with GTAP economic activity, energy volume, and CO2 emissions databases

•International Energy Agency

•Incorporating EPA methane mitigation into Energy Technology Perspectives modeling

•Results to be published in a chapter devoted to methane in 2008 publication of IEA’s Energy Technology Perspectives

•Continuing work & collaboration to improve data and refine analyses


Project Level:

Voluntary Partnerships Address Barriers


Significant Benefits of Methane Mitigation Projects

Methane mitigation technology exists:• Landfill gas flaring or capture for direct use or

electricity generation• Natural gas systems equipment

upgrades/replacements and changes in operational practices, inspection & maintenance

• Oil systems flaring or capture for direct use or enhanced oil recovery

• Coal mine methane flaring or capture through degas procedures or ventilation air methane for direct use or electricity generation

• Animal waste management using anaerobic digesters

Multiple benefits of methane mitigation projects:• Increased energy efficiency & reduced energy waste • Improved industrial/mine safety and productivity• Improved air quality, water quality and reduced odors• Reduced greenhouse gas emissions


Despite Benefits, Barriers Exist

Despite potential for project level cost savings and environmental benefits, barriers to mitigating methane emissions continue to exist:

• Lack of awareness of emission levels and value of lost fuel

• Lack of information on and training in available technologies and management practices

• Traditional industry practices• Regulatory and legal issues• Limited methane markets and infrastructure• Uncertain investment climate


International M2M Voluntary Partnerships Address Barriers

M2M Partner Countries

Argentina Japan

Australia Korea

Brazil Mexico

Canada Nigeria

Colombia Poland

China Russia

Ecuador Ukraine

Germany United Kingdom

India United States

Italy Vietnam

•International Framework to Advance the Recovery and Use of Methane as a Clean Energy Source•20 Partner Countries & 550 public and private Project Network Members•U.S. commitment of $53 million over five years, with total leveraged investment of over $235 million•Ongoing projects and activities are expected to achieve annual emission reductions of 5 MtCO2e•New Opportunity: Partnership Expo, Beijing (30 Oct - 1 Nov, 2007)


Goal: Advance cost-effective recovery and use of methane as a valuable clean energy source in four sectors:

• Coal mines• Landfills• Oil and gas systems• Agriculture (manure waste management)

Key activities to advance project development • Identify and assess project opportunities• Support technology transfer, training, and

capacity building• Address barriers to project development and

increase access to information• Technology demonstration and deployment

International M2M Voluntary Partnerships Address Barriers

Coal Mines

Landfills

Oil and Gas Systems

Agriculture


Conclusions

• Non-CO2 GHGs offer significant opportunities for cost-effective mitigation, particularly in the near-term

• From a range of diverse sources with varied mitigation options

• Can reduce costs of meeting a given climate policy objective

• Commercially available mitigation technologies and practices

• Multiple project level & local benefits• Barriers exist but are being addressed through Methane

to Markets voluntary public-private international partnership


Contact Information

For more information:

EPA’s Climate Change Websitewww.epa.gov/climatechange

EPA’s Non-CO2 Projections and Mitigation Reportshttp://www.epa.gov/nonco2/econ-inv/international.html

EPA’s Methane to Markets Programhttp://www.epa.gov/methanetomarkets/

Christa ClappEconomist, Climate Change Division

U.S. Environmental Protection [email protected]

202-343-9807

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