1 UNITED NATIONS CONFERENCE ON TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT (UNCTAD) 11TH AFRICAN OIL AND GAS, TRADE AND...
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Transcript of 1 UNITED NATIONS CONFERENCE ON TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT (UNCTAD) 11TH AFRICAN OIL AND GAS, TRADE AND...
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UNITED NATIONS CONFERENCE ON TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT (UNCTAD) 11TH AFRICAN OIL AND GAS, TRADE AND FINANCE CONFERENCE & EXHIBITION
May 25, 2007, NAIROBI, KENYAAll opinions expressed are those of Prof. Sullivan alone, not any other person or organization
PROFESSOR PAUL J. SULLIVANNDU
GEORGETOWNEAST WEST INSTITUTE
NOT AN OFFICIAL UNCTAD RECORD
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North: oil and gasSouth: coal and nuclearThe center: biomass and Hydro (under potential)
Potential vs. actual in Energy, especially hydroAnd alternatives like solar, windTidal, wave, biofuels, geothermalAnd more are seriously Underutilized.
Potential vs. actual in Economic development and Human development?
You need a systematic, Continent-wide approach, but Need to know the on-the-groundData and realities.
Mark Tomlinson, WB, Regional Integration, 2006
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There is a huge variety of energy systemsin Africa.
One policy type or size does not fit all.
It is a massive continent, with a huge variety of natural resources that are notevenly distributed.
This is normally said of the coal, oil and gas, but is also true of watershed sources for hydropower, wind power resources, solarresources, geothermal resources, tidal sources and more.
A major problem is connecting energy sourceswith energy needs and development (geography,war, international tensions, technical issues, finance)
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University of Delaware, Department of Marine Studies
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OXFAM ETAL, “MEETING AFRICA’S ENERGY NEEDS: THE COSTSAND BENEFITS OF HYDROPOWER”, 2006
AAAS.ORG
ONLY 7% OF AFRICA’SHYDROPOWER CAPACITYIS USED – IF THAT…..
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Source: Geothermal Education Office, 2006
Geothermal could be a huge source of clean fuel.
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Solar radiation map of the world (yearlyAverage) Source: DLR, 2004
Solar power, like hydro and wind, is underutilized, Especially compared to deforesting biomass.
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9A lot of energy leaves Africa.
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But these conglomerated statistics from the IEA hardly tell the whole story.
If we take a look at some countries in a more disaggregated way we see that:
1. Most of the coal use is in South Africa.
2. Most oil and gas is in North and west Africa; very little is found elsewhere.
3. Over time some countries, like The Sudan, have seen drastic changes in energy production toward Oil. So there may be hope for many others?
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4. Many countries you would expect to have oil and gas as a large part of their energy supply still rely on biomass for most of their supplies: like Nigeria and Angola
5. Some Countries that could have massive hydro-power potential use mostly biomass: DRC and The Sudan, for examples.
6. All of the nuclear in in South Africa: with some issues. (Recent blackout in Cape Town?)
7. Some post-conflict states, like Mozambique, have shown great progress on some energy issues,yet still rely massively on biomass.
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8. Some countries, like Kenya, are putting effortstoward geothermal and other alternatives morethan many other countries in Africa. Ghana and othersAre working on biofuels.
9. There is some switching going on in countries likeEgypt from oil to gas, and toward less reliance on hydroover the years.
10. There will be a serious switch into gas as themassive flaring on the continent, especially in Nigeria, is capped and piped via joint pipelines.
11. Hydropower is uneven in reliance at bestas seen in Togo and Ghana, for examples. Others, like Cameroon and Ethiopia, have more reliable hydro.
12. Some are blessed with oil and hydropower, like Angola and Gabon.
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13. Some are hugely reliant on outside oil for electricity, like Benin, Eritrea, and Senegal.
14. Others rely on their own natural gas for mostOf their electricity, like Algeria.
15. Others rely on their own oil, like Libya.
16. Others rely on other countries’ gas for electricity,like Tunisia.
17. Outside of electricity production most non-oilstates rely tremendously on deforesting and environmentally damaging biomass use.
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LEVELS OF ENERGY SECURITY:
Household
Community
Region
Country
International
TIME SPANSE:
Short run, medium run, and long run
MULTIDIMENSIONAL ISSUE:
Space, time, culture and other dimensions
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Energy end-use security
Fuel source security
Fuel conversion security
Energy transmission and distribution security
Energy infrastructure security (pipelines, refineriesPower lines, transformers, etc.)
Energy technology security/ ideas security
Energy finance security
Energy policy security
Energy-environment security
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Human energy security – under-represented in the debate
Health, well-being, education, training, and othermeasures and realities of human capital
Human capital as a leverage for human energy
Which is, in turn, leveraged by non-human energy
Non-human energy overlaps with and acts in synergy, sometimes, with human energy
Livestock and other animal energy as a further“analogy”
Human energy, non-human energy, and human security?
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Maybe we can now look at this holisticallyas a synergistic, leveraging process thatrequires a security element?
Feinstein, World Bank, 2002
Similar relations have been found with the HDI.
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Source: UNDP, “Energizing the Millennium Development Goals”, 2006
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20UNDP, “ENERGIZING THE MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS”, 2006
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Sometimes the practical things work best, and at small scale levels?
We don’t need social experiments. We needpractical projects withreal results.
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Big does not necessarilymean centralized or“dirty” energy, but weneed to see the tradeoffsfrom all types of sources.
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PROPER PORTFOLIOS OF ENERGY SYSTEMSWITHIN SYSTEMS DEVELOPMENT
PROPER RISK-RETURN CALCULATIONS ATMANY END-USE, GEOGRAPHIC AND TIMESPANSES
GENERALIZED, HOLISTIC COST/BENEFITANALYSES REQUIRED
PEOPLE NEED TO BE PART OF THE DECISIONS, AND THE MAJOR BENEFICIARIES OF THE PROJECTS
NEEDS A LONG RUN VIEW OF OVERALLDEVELOPMENT OF AFRICA
EVEN AFTER THE MDGS ARE HISTORY….