1 Turkey’s Growth Dilemma Prof. Seyfettin Gürsel Bahçeşehir University Center for Economic and...

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1 Turkey’s Growth Dilemma Prof. Seyfettin Gürsel Bahçeşehir University Center for Economic and Social Research (betam) Director Prepared for Two Tests for Cyprus World Financial Crisis and Identity 4th Seminar 2008/2009 of the European Forum Cyprus Organised in co-operation with Friedrich Ebert Stiftung Nicosia, 12-14 June 2009

Transcript of 1 Turkey’s Growth Dilemma Prof. Seyfettin Gürsel Bahçeşehir University Center for Economic and...

  • Turkeys Growth Dilemma

    Prof. Seyfettin GrselBaheehir University Center for Economic and Social Research (betam) Director

    Prepared forTwo Tests for Cyprus World Financial Crisis and Identity

    4th Seminar 2008/2009 of the European Forum Cyprus Organised in co-operation with Friedrich Ebert Stiftung Nicosia, 12-14 June 2009

  • Presentation PlanHistorical Perspective of ConvergenceGrowth and Unemployment in TurkeyGlobal Crisis and UnemploymentGrowth Perspective

  • Historical Perspective of Convergence Graph 1. GDP per capita compared to Western Europe and USA (PPP Adjusted)

    Chart1

    0.1756115401195019501950

    0.19272842060.331026652519511951

    0.19665101470.33175089510.03372120171952

    0.20978325130.31746908060.03428126490.1414981286

    0.18664621690.35165450280.03449941820.1423296021

    0.19090804070.35009750020.03404948240.1420915785

    0.18496846190.36746072260.03641576130.1413692618

    0.21626931680.37893285620.03686471310.145898645

    0.22878209620.39600948820.04070700690.1480623162

    0.21051487920.37704228140.03941524770.140422181

    0.19725917970.39934741540.03875423020.1345164757

    0.19639290250.43376436610.03234186870.1351784628

    0.19207254690.44702052730.03049501210.1286793185

    0.20041093750.46895772870.03099216760.1323318252

    0.19312271670.47186201820.03236273950.133337406

    0.18571201340.48156185780.03367826890.1309525906

    0.19132717710.4896777930.03384738460.1377161142

    0.1902847760.49946307150.03126547830.139100967

    0.19043417090.5097198960.02832575770.1450394381

    0.18925048230.53266896730.02965462670.1571639296

    0.19104290650.55109963370.0315132910.1652022977

    0.19280080630.56090839380.03280949710.1713081707

    0.19343880460.58174089960.03168368750.1695580323

    0.18483789030.59530078560.03156349750.1759050475

    0.18745875530.61131689620.03163364730.1892514544

    0.20057984170.61501375250.03358470860.1972152118

    0.20704983430.60760910570.03225759420.2048647269

    0.20731991310.59895466450.03258504770.2159725475

    0.19761446620.58150942820.0339665440.2275344434

    0.18699092650.56972347820.0358961820.2374805205

    0.17911870490.58176119290.03749575520.2274912896

    0.18238218360.57180310060.03971835120.2338160802

    0.18503234970.5807481550.04446022370.2505550496

    0.18579390350.56557450890.04582786890.2647876098

    0.18417589290.54353884910.04911884880.2725277886

    0.1823762090.5385396570.05100686460.278412638

    0.18664471570.53978135130.05662572860.295302743

    0.19275205090.54793891210.06037692370.3169078422

    0.18629707350.55656755240.06144802730.3361139475

    0.17836034670.56609577250.06022204590.3494690957

    0.18967912690.57762000520.0667513740.3815938029

    0.1906882640.59596529130.07212591630.4170224934

    0.19374382480.58824405690.07811743890.4258779595

    0.20300260310.57261124250.08306643010.4441001992

    0.18353504520.56717351870.09277247870.4659411305

    0.18860378180.56856630450.10030600470.4925670971

    0.19463551490.56744826270.10599599560.5115945376

    0.19812258510.56800987120.11325403770.5102942401

    0.19446596970.57165949720.11797612570.4503865457

    0.17943875070.57493007220.12132161670.4789280204

    0.18231946830.58022342490.12767489790.500968489

    0.16721373410.59444383320.13636072620.5147440634

    0.1734138340.60057396340.14673568450.5429482721

    0.1760121730.60159178970.15528188720.5496899767

    0.18136701820.59472914620.16169356670.5584617161

    Source: Penn World Table 6.2 and betam

    Turkey

    Southern Europe

    China

    Korea

    Sheet1

    KalknmAkdenizinKoreTrkiyeBat Avrupa + ABDGney AvrupainKoreTrkiyeTurkeySouthern EuropeChinaKorea

    19508784154319501001819500.18

    19519660319818621951110362119510.190.33

    195299123288334194919521133742219520.200.330.03

    1953102383250351144921481953117374162419530.210.320.030.14

    1954101273561349144118901954115414162219540.190.350.030.14

    1955106523729363151420341955121424172319550.190.350.030.14

    1956108113973394152820001956123454172319560.180.370.040.14

    1957109094134402159223591957124475182719570.220.380.040.15

    1958107604261438159324621958122495182819580.230.400.040.15

    1959111924220441157223561959127485182719590.210.380.040.14

    1960114794584445154422641960131525182619600.200.400.040.13

    1961116805066378157922941961133584182619610.200.430.030.14

    1962121885448372156823411962139624182719620.190.450.030.13

    1963125995909390166725251963143674192919630.200.470.030.13

    1964131536207426175425401964150715202919640.190.470.030.13

    1965137276610462179825491965156755202919650.190.480.030.13

    1966143267015485197327411966163806223119660.190.490.030.14

    1967146337309458203527841967167835233219670.190.500.030.14

    1968152617779432221329061968174895253319680.190.510.030.15

    1969157368382467247329781969179955283419690.190.530.030.16

    19701586787445002621303119701811006303519700.190.550.030.17

    19711627491285342788313819711851046323619710.190.560.030.17

    19721692798475362870327419721931126333719720.190.580.030.17

    197317803105985623132329119732031216363719730.180.600.030.18

    197417750108515613359332719742021246383819740.190.610.030.19

    197517535107845893458351719752001237394019750.200.620.030.20

    197618342111455923758379819762091277434319760.210.610.030.20

    197718904113236164083391919772151297464519770.210.600.030.22

    197819661114336684474388519782241308514419780.200.580.030.23

    197920158114857244787376919792291318544319790.190.570.040.24

    198020030116537514557358819802281339524119800.180.580.040.23

    198120209115568034725368619812301329544219810.180.570.040.23

    1982199851160688950073698198222813210574219820.190.580.040.25

    1983206091165694454573829198323513311624419830.190.570.050.26

    19842160211741106158873979198424613412674519840.180.540.050.27

    19852224611980113561944057198525313613714619850.180.540.050.28

    19862283012323129367424261198626014015774919860.190.540.060.30

    19872341312829141474204513198726714616845119870.190.550.060.32

    19882422413483148981424513198827615317935119880.190.560.060.34

    19892486314075149786894435198928316017995019890.180.570.060.35

    199025135145181678959147681990286165191095419900.190.580.070.38

    1991249281485717981039647541991284169201185419910.190.600.070.42

    1992253811493019831080949171992289170231235619920.190.590.080.43

    1993256601469321311139652091993292167241305919930.200.570.080.44

    1994264441499824531232148531994301171281405519940.180.570.090.47

    1995269401531727021327050811995307174311515819950.190.570.100.49

    1996275911565629251411553701996314178331616119960.190.570.110.51

    1997285151619732291455156491997325184371666419970.200.570.110.51

    1998294521683734751326557271998335192401516519980.190.570.120.45

    1999304231749136911457054591999346199421666219990.180.570.120.48

    2000313441818640021570257152000357207461796520000.180.580.130.50

    2001313951866242811616052502001357212491846020010.170.590.140.51

    2002315561895246301713354722002359216531956220020.170.600.150.54

    2003320091925649701759556342003364219572006420030.180.600.160.55

    2004329851961753331842159822004376223612106820040.180.590.160.56

    Sheet1

    0.1756115401195019501950

    0.19272842060.331026652519511951

    0.19665101470.33175089510.03372120171952

    0.20978325130.31746908060.03428126490.1414981286

    0.18664621690.35165450280.03449941820.1423296021

    0.19090804070.35009750020.03404948240.1420915785

    0.18496846190.36746072260.03641576130.1413692618

    0.21626931680.37893285620.03686471310.145898645

    0.22878209620.39600948820.04070700690.1480623162

    0.21051487920.37704228140.03941524770.140422181

    0.19725917970.39934741540.03875423020.1345164757

    0.19639290250.43376436610.03234186870.1351784628

    0.19207254690.44702052730.03049501210.1286793185

    0.20041093750.46895772870.03099216760.1323318252

    0.19312271670.47186201820.03236273950.133337406

    0.18571201340.48156185780.03367826890.1309525906

    0.19132717710.4896777930.03384738460.1377161142

    0.1902847760.49946307150.03126547830.139100967

    0.19043417090.5097198960.02832575770.1450394381

    0.18925048230.53266896730.02965462670.1571639296

    0.19104290650.55109963370.0315132910.1652022977

    0.19280080630.56090839380.03280949710.1713081707

    0.19343880460.58174089960.03168368750.1695580323

    0.18483789030.59530078560.03156349750.1759050475

    0.18745875530.61131689620.03163364730.1892514544

    0.20057984170.61501375250.03358470860.1972152118

    0.20704983430.60760910570.03225759420.2048647269

    0.20731991310.59895466450.03258504770.2159725475

    0.19761446620.58150942820.0339665440.2275344434

    0.18699092650.56972347820.0358961820.2374805205

    0.17911870490.58176119290.03749575520.2274912896

    0.18238218360.57180310060.03971835120.2338160802

    0.18503234970.5807481550.04446022370.2505550496

    0.18579390350.56557450890.04582786890.2647876098

    0.18417589290.54353884910.04911884880.2725277886

    0.1823762090.5385396570.05100686460.278412638

    0.18664471570.53978135130.05662572860.295302743

    0.19275205090.54793891210.06037692370.3169078422

    0.18629707350.55656755240.06144802730.3361139475

    0.17836034670.56609577250.06022204590.3494690957

    0.18967912690.57762000520.0667513740.3815938029

    0.1906882640.59596529130.07212591630.4170224934

    0.19374382480.58824405690.07811743890.4258779595

    0.20300260310.57261124250.08306643010.4441001992

    0.18353504520.56717351870.09277247870.4659411305

    0.18860378180.56856630450.10030600470.4925670971

    0.19463551490.56744826270.10599599560.5115945376

    0.19812258510.56800987120.11325403770.5102942401

    0.19446596970.57165949720.11797612570.4503865457

    0.17943875070.57493007220.12132161670.4789280204

    0.18231946830.58022342490.12767489790.500968489

    0.16721373410.59444383320.13636072620.5147440634

    0.1734138340.60057396340.14673568450.5429482721

    0.1760121730.60159178970.15528188720.5496899767

    0.18136701820.59472914620.16169356670.5584617161

    Source : Penn World Table 6.2 and betam

    Turkey

    Southern Europe

    China

    Korea

  • Historical Perspective of Convergence

    Two possible Models

    Southern Europe (Democratic Model) Asia (Autocratic Model)

  • Historical Perspective of ConvergenceGrowth Potential of the Turkish Economy

    Total Investment: 20 % of GDP Increase in the Capital Stock (per year): 7 % of GDP Contribution to growth (per year): 3.5 % ( = 0.5)

    Non-farm Labor Force Increase (per year): 2 % Contribution to growth (per year): 1 % (1 - = 0.5)

    Increase in Total Factor Productivity Contribution to growth: 0.5 % to 1 %

    3.5 %

    1 %

    0.5 % to 1 %

    5 % - 5.5 % Growth

  • Historical Perspective of Convergence

    GDP Growth TR EU(27) : 5.5 % - 2 % = 3.5 % Population Growth TR EU(27) : 1 % - 0 % = 1 %

    Difference between GDP per Capital Growth 2.5 %

    Actual GDP per Capita (Eurostat, 2007) TR/EU(27): 40%

    GDP per Capita Convergence in 10 Years 30%

    GDP per Capita in 10 Years TR/EU(27): 40% * 1.3 = 52 %

  • Growth and Unemployment in TurkeySource: TURKSTAT

    tablo1

    Tablo 1 (%)1992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007

    GSYH yllk byme (a, b)5.07.7-4.77.97.47.6na-3.46.8-5.76.25.39.48.46.94.6

    Konsolide bte dengesi / GSYH (a, b)-4.3-6.7-3.9-4.1-8.4-7.8-5.4-8.7-8.0-12.1-11.4-8.8-5.4-1.3-0.8-1.6

    Faizi d denge / GSYH (a, b)-0.7-0.93.83.41.80.13.41.54.35.03.44.04.75.85.44.1

    Net kamu borcu / GSYH (a, c)40.041.053.844.245.044.231.039.842.966.361.455.149.041.634.029.1

    Enflasyon (d)6671.1125.576.179.899.169.768.83968.529.818.49.37.79.78.4

    DBS gsterge faiz oran (Treasury Bonds) (e)92.889.2137.9182.2128.2147.9145.2nana74.149.827.923.114.221.516.5

    Beklenen enflasyon (f)nananananananananana24.713.98.75.87.26.2

    Beklenen reel faiz (g)nananananananananana0.20.10.10.10.10.1

    Reel kur (h)110.1112.695.897100.1110.7107.9108.8118.3107.3117.1126.2131.3147.2139.3159.7

    Cari ak / GSYH (a, i)-0.6-3.13.1-0.3-1.2-1.10.7-0.4-3.71.9-0.3-2.5-3.7-4.6-6.1-5.7

    Vergi geliri / GSYH (a,b)13.013.315.214.015.216.513.114.215.916.517.018.516.116.518.117.9

    Dolayl vergi geliri / Toplam vergi geliri (a, b)49.651.451.757.560.659.353.454.659.159.566.367.068.969.468.566.1

    Reel cret endeksi (j)136.2141.5110.997.59710099.7110.7111.395.190.088.390.592.393.193.7

    * 2008 ylna ait ilk eyrein toplam alnmtr.

    a)1992-1998: eski GSYH serisine gre 1987 sabit fiyatlaryla ;1999-2007: yeni GSYH serisine gre 1998 sabit fiyatlaryla.(Kaynak : TK)

    b) 1992-1993:Konsolide bte dengesi (Kaynak: DPT, Ekonomik ve Sosyal Gstergeler), 1994-2005:Konsolide Bte Dengesi (Kaynak: Hazine Mstearl), 2006-2007:Merkezi Ynetim Bte Dengesi. (Kaynak: Hazine Mstearl)

    c) 1992-1999:Merkezi Ynetim Bor Stoku, 2000-2007:Kamu Net Bor Stoku (Kaynak: Hazine Mstearl)

    d) Ylsonu itibariyle TFE yll % deiim. 1992-1994 dnemi iin 1987=100, 1995-2004 dnemi iin 1994=100 ve 2004 yl sonras iin 2003=100 bazl endex kullanlmtr. (Kaynak : TK)

    e) Aralk ay ortalama faiz oran alnmtr (Kaynak: Hazine Mstearl)

    f) 12 ay sonrasnn yllk TFE beklentisi (aritmetik ortalama).Yeni yln son anket sonucu. (Kaynak: TCMB)

    g) Beklenen reel faiz =[(1+DIBS gsterge faiz oran)/(1+beklenen enflasyon)]-1 forml ile hesaplanmtr.

    h) retici Fiyatlar Endeksi bazl, Aralk ay verileri alnmtr.(TCMB)

    i) Kaynak: TCMB

    j) Dnemler itibariyle imalat sanayi retimde alan saat bana reel cret endeksi (1997=100) (Kaynak: TK)

    tablo 2

    GSYH (1998 fiyatlaryla) yllk % deiim

    1999200020012002200320042005200620072006 I2006 II+2007I2007 II + 2008 I2008 Q3

    zel Tketim (a)-1.78.1-5.54.99.210.27.54.63.47.92.04.4-0.2

    Gda, ki ve Ttn2.30.71.3-0.36.81.78.73.91.65.72.81.91.0

    Giyim ve Ayakkab-15.33.4-5.18.94.25.2-10.7-3.9-3.41.2-7.5-1.5-5.0

    Konut, Su, Elektrik, Gaz ve Dier Yaktlar3.55.11.13.44.74.65.34.63.44.84.03.62.6

    Mobilya, Ev Aletleri ve Ev Bakm Hizmetleri1.47.4-14.16.719.816.322.25.31.612.31.11.0-4.9

    Ulatrma ve Haberleme1.216.0-21.38.519.018.56.07.42.316.2-1.910.91.2

    Dier Mal ve Hizmetler ( b)-7.920.6-3.18.17.017.29.05.78.26.76.06.2-0.3

    zel Yatrm Harcamalar-1917.5-32.916.923.736.116.2155.218.47.76.5-10.0

    Makine tehisat-28.831.3-41.816.230.948.221.412.24.717.63.77.9-8.4

    Bina inaat-1.5-0.5-17.617.915.019.87.620.36.320.115.44.2-12.8

    Kamunun Nihai Tketim Harcamalar45.7-1.15.8-2.66.02.58.46.511.78.02.07.7

    Maa, cret1.9-0.73.71.61.10.2-0.80.41.10.40.80.6-2.1

    Dier cari816.6-8.012.8-8.115.57.11912.633.216.63.518.4

    Kamu Yatrm Harcamalar-5.117.5-20.28.3-15.1-6.625.02.67.33.53.8-1.122.2

    hracat-10.716.03.96.96.911.27.96.67.37.58.45.41.5

    thalat (-)-3.721.8-24.820.923.520.812.26.910.712.04.410.7-4.2

    GSYH-3.46.8-5.76.25.39.48.46.94.67.96.03.90.5

    Kaynak : TK, TCMB

    a) Yerleik ve Yerleik Olmayan Hanehalklarnn Yurtii Tketimi (Final Consumption Expenditure of Resident and Non-Resident Households on the Economic Territory)

    b) Dier Mal ve Hizmetler = Salk+elence ve kltr +eitim+lokanta ve oteller +eitli mal ve hizmetler

    tablo 2 (2)

    GDP (at 1998 prices) annual % change

    2000200120022003200420052006200720082006 I2006 II + 2007 I2007 II + 2008 I2008 Q32008 Q4

    Private Consumption *8.1-5.54.99.210.27.54.63.90.17.92.14.3-1.6-4.0

    Food, Beverages and Tobacco0.71.3-0.36.81.78.73.92.02.45.72.42.80.21.8

    Clothing and Footwear3.4-5.18.94.25.2-10.7-3.9-2.2-6.41.2-6.9-1.8-4.6-14.3

    Furnishing, Household Equipment and Routine Maintenance of the House5.11.13.44.74.65.34.63.33.44.84.03.53.02.5

    Furnishing, Household Equipment and Routine Maintenance of the House7.4-14.16.719.816.322.25.32.5-7.312.31.5-0.4-9.2-16.3

    Transport and Communication16.0-21.38.719.018.56.07.42.80.916.2-1.710.5-0.3-17.8

    Other **17.2-3.18.17.017.29.05.78.71.16.76.25.9-2.03.0

    Gross Fixed Capital Formation of Private Sector17.5-32.916.923.736.116.215.05.3-7.318.47.84.4-8.9-23.5

    Makine tehisat31.3-41.816.230.948.221.412.24.7-4.417.63.68.7-6.8-25.3

    Construction-0.5-17.617.915.019.87.620.36.2-12.220.115.6-2.8-12.5-20.4

    Government Final Consumption Expenditure5.7-1.15.8-2.66.02.58.46.51.811.78.01.51.26.1

    Compensation of Employees-0.73.71.61.10.2-0.80.41.1-0.40.40.80.6-2.10.6

    Other16.6-8.012.8-8.115.57.119.012.64.033.216.62.54.810.1

    Gross Fixed Capital Formation of Public Sector17.5-20.28.3-15.1-6.625.02.66.313.13.53.610.65.415.9

    Exports of Goods and Services16.03.96.96.911.27.96.67.32.67.58.46.03.6-8.2

    (Less) Imports of Goods and Services21.8-24.820.923.520.812.26.910.7-3.112.04.411.5-2.8-23.0

    GDP6.8-5.76.25.39.48.46.94.71.17.95.94.31.2-6.2

    Source : TURKSTAT, CBRT

    * Final Consumption Expenditure of Resident and Non-Resident Households on the Economic Territory

    ** Other Goods and Services: Health, Recreation and Culture, Education,Restaurants and Hotels, Miscellaneous Goods and Services

    Sunum

  • Growth and Unemployment in Turkey Graph 2. Industrial Production Index Turkish economy started to follow a low growth path before the global crisis Source: TURKSTAT and betam

  • Crisis and UnemploymentSimple Algebra of Unemployment in Turkey

    Annual increase of the non-farm labor force 3 % (550,000)Necessary increase of the non-farm employment to keep the number of unemployed constant 550,000 Growth Employment Elasticity 0.5Necessary annual non-farm growth rate 6 %Necessary growth rate 5.5 %Effect of the global crisis: Labor force continues to increase

  • Crisis and Unemployment* betam estimation Source: TURKSTAT and betam

  • Crisis and Unemployment Graph 3. Crises and Unemployment (2005 2009) Source: TURKSTAT and betam

    Chart2

    0.136541672683.2568

    0.13596262704.2416

    0.136403872727.6342

    0.137008742748.2227

    0.136705092772.4696

    0.136216752783.844

    0.135836932779.0121

    0.134674152795.2761

    0.134568742801.936

    0.134943922819.8311

    0.135760112854.7403

    0.135193452814.889

    0.132973022794.2954

    0.12948022722.5309

    0.1282772720.3829

    0.128266842702.3309

    0.127022072689.9111

    0.12655182692.0436

    0.126150592691.6408

    0.126796172716.1794

    0.125661682707.5814

    0.123102872671.4398

    0.121068262652.2099

    0.12531772698.2235

    0.120618492655.6524

    0.122685442702.6512

    0.121780462688.3426

    0.127365942747.9319

    0.127180562755.307

    0.126846222752.6222

    0.12554172741.9363

    0.12635112760.4872

    0.126116122762.365

    0.127245892777.7014

    0.124996042730.3255

    0.121739582668.04

    0.120814832709.0696

    0.121905192754.0698

    0.124169312794.5226

    0.126087762780.7622

    0.127418492818.7633

    0.129469862872.9036

    0.133284952964.553

    0.135560142982.7016

    0.1403473076.1959

    0.14539213186.1588

    0.153485183345.8635

    0.16399163552.2082

    0.171575933724.5686

    0.176762423799

    Non farm unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted)

    Non farm unemployed (seasonally adjusted)

    Non farm unemployment rate

    Unemployed, in thousand

    Tablo 1 Mali Politika

    20082009 (planlanan)% (nominal)% (reel)*

    Merkezi Ynetim Gelirleri208,898249,97319.711.3206810-7.9

    Vergi Gelirleri168,087220,60331.222.1177240-1.9

    Dolaysz Vergiler59,02174,10525.616.8634370

    Dolayl Vergiler109,157146,49834.224.9113804-3

    Dier Gelirler40,81129,570-27.5-32.6--

    Merkezi Ynetim Giderleri225,967259,15614.76.72628838.24

    Faiz Hari Giderler175,309201,65615.07.02053839

    Personel Giderleri48,82557,21117.29.0--

    Sosyal Gvenlik Kurumlarna Devlet Primi Giderleri6,4027,24313.15.3--

    Mal ve Hizmet Almlar31,52534,4079.11.5--

    Cari Transferler70,11687,95625.416.7--

    Sermaye Giderleri18,44114,839-19.5-25.1--

    Faiz Giderleri50,66157,50013.55.6--

    Bte A-17,069-9,183-46.2-49.9-56072205.64

    Bte A / GSYH (tahmini)**-1.8%-0.9%-49.0-52.5-5.6%188.61

    Faiz D Fazla33,59248,31743.833.81428-96.05

    Faiz D Fazla / GSYH (tahmini)**3.5%4.6%31.422.30.14%-96.22

    * = 2009 bte tahmini TCMB 2009 yl sonu hedef enflasyon oran (7,5%) kullanlarak deflate edilmitir.

    *** = "-" olan kalemlerde, Maliye'nin planndaki rakamlar alnmtr

    Tablo 2 Mali Politika lk 4 Ay

    Ocak - Nisan Toplam

    20082009Reel Deiim* (%)

    Merkezi Ynetim Gelirleri6475067363-3.5%

    Vergi Gelirleri5316050959-11.1%

    Dolaysz Vergiler1979219799-7.2%

    Dolayl Vergiler3336831160-13.4%

    Dier Gelirler115901640431.3%

    Merkezi Ynetim Giderleri701978743415.5%

    Faiz Hari Giderler522826630717.6%

    Faiz Giderleri17915211279.4%

    Bte Dengesi-5447-20071241.8%

    Faiz D Denge124681056-92.1%

    * Reel deiim hesaplanrken 2008 ilk 4 ay, 2009 ilk 4 ay ortalama TFE endeksi deiimi %7.8 kullanlmtr

    Mali Politika

    20082009 (planlanan)% (nominal)% (reel)*

    Merkezi Ynetim Gelirleri208,898249,97319.711.3206810-7.9

    Vergi Gelirleri168,087220,60331.222.1177240-1.9

    Dolaysz Vergiler59,02174,10525.616.8634370

    Dolayl Vergiler109,157146,49834.224.9113804-3

    Dier Gelirler40,81129,570-27.5-32.6--

    Merkezi Ynetim Giderleri225,967259,15614.76.72628838.24

    Faiz Hari Giderler175,309201,65615.07.02053839

    Personel Giderleri48,82557,21117.29.0--

    Sosyal Gvenlik Kurumlarna Devlet Primi Giderleri6,4027,24313.15.3--

    Mal ve Hizmet Almlar31,52534,4079.11.5--

    Cari Transferler70,11687,95625.416.7--

    Sermaye Giderleri18,44114,839-19.5-25.1--

    Faiz Giderleri50,66157,50013.55.6--

    Bte A-17,069-9,183-46.2-49.9-56072205.64

    Bte A / GSYH (tahmini)**-1.8%-0.9%-49.0-52.5-5.6%188.61

    Faiz D Fazla33,59248,31743.833.81428-96.05

    Faiz D Fazla / GSYH (tahmini)**3.5%4.6%31.422.30.14%-96.22

    * = 2009 bte tahmini TCMB 2009 yl sonu hedef enflasyon oran (7,5%) kullanlarak deflate edilmitir.

    *** = "-" olan kalemlerde, Maliye'nin planndaki rakamlar alnmtr

    ekil 1 Kapasite & GSYH

    Kapasite kullanm oran (mevsime ve ignne gre dzeltilmi)Tarm d GSYH (mevsime ve ignne gre dzeltilmi)Kapasite kullanm oran (mevsime ve ignne gre dzeltilmi, 3 aylk hareketli ortalama)

    Jan-0480.21784080.04

    Feb-0478.41799679.28-1.0%

    Mar-0481.81815280.141.1%

    Apr-0477.21829879.14-1.3%

    May-0483.41844480.812.1%

    Jun-0483.31859081.290.6%

    Jul-0482.81866483.172.3%

    Aug-0482.11873882.74-0.5%

    Sep-0481.91881282.28-0.5%

    Oct-0481.01888781.68-0.7%

    Nov-0482.71896281.870.2%

    Dec-0483.31903882.340.6%

    Jan-0580.61919982.18-0.2%

    Feb-0580.71936181.52-0.8%

    Mar-0580.31952380.52-1.2%

    Apr-0580.31963180.42-0.1%

    May-0579.61973980.06-0.4%

    Jun-0579.31984679.73-0.4%

    Jul-0580.02003579.63-0.1%

    Aug-0580.22022479.840.3%

    Sep-0580.62041280.270.5%

    Oct-0580.52057080.450.2%

    Nov-0580.62072780.560.1%

    Dec-0580.62088480.560.0%

    Jan-0680.32094480.49-0.1%

    Feb-0679.82100480.25-0.3%

    Mar-0680.62106480.23-0.0%

    Apr-0682.92127081.101.1%

    May-0680.92147781.440.4%

    Jun-0680.92168381.560.1%

    Jul-0681.22181280.98-0.7%

    Aug-0680.02194080.68-0.4%

    Sep-0680.52206980.55-0.2%

    Oct-0681.42213780.630.1%

    Nov-0681.32220481.080.6%

    Dec-0682.32227281.660.7%

    Jan-0782.02237881.860.2%

    Feb-0783.52248482.600.9%

    Mar-0782.32259082.630.0%

    Apr-0782.22268182.690.1%

    May-0781.12277181.89-1.0%

    Jun-0781.62286281.64-0.3%

    Jul-0780.92296981.19-0.5%

    Aug-0780.92307681.12-0.1%

    Sep-0781.32318381.02-0.1%

    Oct-0780.82333681.01-0.0%

    Nov-0781.22348981.100.1%

    Dec-0783.22364281.740.8%

    Jan-0883.32373582.561.0%

    Feb-0882.32382882.930.5%

    Mar-0882.12392182.55-0.5%

    Apr-0881.62385581.98-0.7%

    May-0880.92379081.51-0.6%

    Jun-0880.22372480.90-0.7%

    Jul-0878.52351479.87-1.3%

    Aug-0877.12330478.60-1.6%

    Sep-0877.32309477.62-1.3%

    Oct-0875.12281776.50-1.4%

    Nov-0872.32254074.91-2.1%

    Dec-0866.72226371.39-4.7%

    Jan-0967.468.81-3.6%

    Feb-0967.467.15-2.4%

    Mar-0965.366.69-0.7%

    Apr-0966.766.45-0.4%

    ekil 1 Kapasite & GSYH

    &A

    Page &P

    Tarm d GSYH (mevsime ve ignne gre dzeltilmi)

    Kapasite kullanm oran (mevsime ve ignne gre dzeltilmi, 3 aylk hareketli ortalama)

    GSYH, 98 sabit fiyatlaryla

    Kapasite kullanm oran (%)

    ekil 2 Sanayi & GSYH

    Sanayi retim endeksi (mevsime ve ignne gre dzeltilmi)Tarm d GSYH (mevsime ve ignne gre dzeltilmi)Sanayi retim endeksi (mevsime ve ignne gre dzeltilmi, 3 aylk hareketli ortalama)

    Jan-0488.51784088.8

    Feb-0490.01799689.2

    Mar-0490.11815289.5

    Apr-0491.11829890.4

    May-0494.21844491.8

    Jun-0493.31859092.9

    Jul-0496.11866494.5

    Aug-0493.81873894.4

    Sep-0492.81881294.2

    Oct-0494.01888793.5

    Nov-0490.81896292.5

    Dec-0494.21903893.0

    Jan-0597.71919994.2

    Feb-0596.61936196.2

    Mar-0595.71952396.7

    Apr-0597.01963196.5

    May-0596.31973996.4

    Jun-0597.71984697.0

    Jul-0598.22003597.4

    Aug-05100.42022498.8

    Sep-05103.320412100.6

    Oct-05105.320570103.0

    Nov-05102.720727103.7

    Dec-05107.020884105.0

    Jan-06100.920944103.5

    Feb-06102.421004103.4

    Mar-06107.321064103.5

    Apr-06108.121270105.9

    May-06107.921477107.8

    Jun-06108.721683108.3

    Jul-06108.621812108.4

    Aug-06108.121940108.5

    Sep-06109.722069108.8

    Oct-06107.422137108.4

    Nov-06111.622204109.5

    Dec-06113.222272110.7

    Jan-07113.022378112.6

    Feb-07113.622484113.3

    Mar-07114.922590113.8

    Apr-07113.522681114.0

    May-07113.822771114.0

    Jun-07114.622862114.0

    Jul-07114.222969114.2

    Aug-07116.523076115.1

    Sep-07116.523183115.7

    Oct-07115.523336116.2

    Nov-07120.123489117.4

    Dec-07118.623642118.1

    Jan-08121.223735120.0

    Feb-08120.723828120.2

    Mar-08120.023921120.6

    Apr-08119.423855120.0

    May-08119.023790119.4

    Jun-08116.523724118.3

    Jul-08115.623514117.1

    Aug-08112.523304114.9

    Sep-08109.723094112.6

    Oct-08109.222817110.5

    Nov-08105.422540108.1

    Dec-0899.722263104.8

    Jan-0999.4101.5

    Feb-0997.098.7

    Mar-0994.096.8

    88.51784088.8

    121.223921120.6

    alper.dincer:TK ulusal hesaplarda 1998 sabit fiyatlar ile retim tarafl GSYH indirilecek. Tarm ve balklk kalemleri toplam GSYH'den kartlacak ve tarm d GSYH'ye ulalacak. Yllk gzlemler silinecek. Sadece eyreklikler kalacak. Tatil vektr ek regressor olarak hazrlanacak. Bu ekilde tramo/seats kullanlarak ve tatil vektr ek regressor olarak eklenerek (assign to seasonal component) ve 2001 1. eyree trend dummy konularak mevsime ve ignne gre dzeltiyoruz.Bildiiniz gibi GSYH eyreklik olarak mevcut. Oysa bizim grafikte aylk gzlemlere de ihtiyacmz var. Bu yzden eyreklerdeki verileri Mart-Haziran-Eyll- Aralk aylarna yaptryoruz ve aralar dorusal olarak birletiriliyoruz. Bunu sadece grafikte data bulunsun diye yapyoruz. Seyfettin Hoca'ya bunlarn gerek data olmad belirtilmeli. Bu durum iki ekilde dzeltilebilir. a)cubic spline diye bir excel addin'i var. istediiniz dereceden extraplotaion yapyor. b) aye erturul aylk GSYH hesaplamay biliyor. Ancak doktora tezi yznden bu aralar epey youn (Mays 2009). Sonbahar gibi Aye'den rica ederseniz size aylk GSYH hesaplamay gsterebilir.Kapasite kullanm oran iin bu dzeltmede yle farkllklar bulunuyor: 1. Kapasite kullanm oran verisi TDM'den indirilecek. TK'in sitesi bu i iin biraz sorunlu ve yava. (Elbette GSYH de TDM'den indirilebilir.) 2. Tatil vektrn aylk hazrlamak gerekiyor nk kapasite kullanm oran eyreklik deil aylk veri. Bundan sonra Eviews'da ayn yntem izlenerek mevsime ve ignne gre dzeltme yapmak gerekiyor. Benim Eviews'umda sanrm bug var. Bu yzden 1997'deki gzlemleri silmeden mevsime ve ignne gre dzeltme yapamyorum. Kapasite kullanm oran iin bu ilem yaplyorken dummy 2001 Mart'a konulacak. 2001 ncesi krizler iin Seyfettin Hoca, Gke Hoca veya TCMB'den bir feedback alamadk. Bu konuyu gndeme getirip tartabilirsiniz. 2001 Mart'a dummy koyma fikrinde, ben ve Burak, seriyi farkl ekillerde grafie dkp incelip karar kldk. Bu iin mutlaka daha dorusunu renmek gerekir.

    ekil 2 Sanayi & GSYH

    &A

    Page &P

    Sanayi retim endeksi (mevsime ve ignne gre dzeltilmi)

    Tarm d GSYH (mevsime ve ignne gre dzeltilmi)

    Sanayi retim endeksi

    GSYH, 98 sabit fiyatlaryla

    ekil 3 sizler ve isizlik

    Sanayi retim endeksi (mevsime ve ignne gre dzeltilmi, 3 aylk hareketli ortalama)

    Tarm d GSYH (mevsime ve ignne gre dzeltilmi)

    Sanayi retim endeksi

    GSYH, 98 sabit fiyatlaryla

    ekil 4 Cari Denge

    Tarm d isizlik oran (mevsime gre dzeltilmi)Tarm d isizler (mevsimse gre dzeltilmi)

    1/1/050.1372183

    2/1/050.1362204

    3/1/050.1362227

    4/1/050.1372248

    5/1/050.1372272

    6/1/050.1362283

    7/1/050.1362279

    8/1/050.1352295

    9/1/050.1352302

    10/1/050.1352319

    11/1/050.1362354

    12/1/050.1352314

    1/1/060.1332294

    2/1/060.1292222

    3/1/060.1282220

    4/1/060.1282202

    5/1/060.1272189

    6/1/060.1272192

    7/1/060.1262191

    8/1/060.1272216

    9/1/060.1262207

    10/1/060.1232171

    11/1/060.1212152

    12/1/060.1252198

    1/1/070.1212155

    2/1/070.1232202

    3/1/070.1222188

    4/1/070.1272248

    5/1/070.1272255

    6/1/070.1272252

    7/1/070.1262242

    8/1/070.1262260

    9/1/070.1262262

    10/1/070.1272277

    11/1/070.1252230

    12/1/070.1222168

    1/1/080.1212209

    2/1/080.1222254

    3/1/080.1242294

    4/1/080.1262280

    5/1/080.1272318

    6/1/080.1292372

    7/1/080.1332464

    8/1/080.1362482

    9/1/080.1402576

    10/1/080.1452686

    11/1/080.1532845

    12/1/080.1643052

    1/1/090.1723224

    2/1/090.1773299

    0.1212152

    0.1773299

    alper.dincer:Sanayi retim endeksi iin kapasite kullanm oran iin izlenen yntemin ayns izleniyor.

    ekil 4 Cari Denge

    &A

    Page &P

    Tarm d isizlik oran (mevsime gre dzeltilmi)

    Tarm d isizler (mevsimse gre dzeltilmi)

    sizlik oran

    sizler, bin kii

    ekil 5 - Reel Efektif Kur

    12

    Current Account Balanceo/w: Non-EnergyCari Denge (Mevsimsel Dzeltilmi, Aylk, Milyon $) - TramoCari Denge (Mevsimsel Dzeltilmi, Aylk, Milyon $)Enerji D Cari Denge (Mevsimsel Dzeltilmi, Aylk, Milyon $)- TramoEnerji D Cari Denge (Mevsimsel Dzeltilmi, Aylk, Milyon $)

    Jan-025771-120-192803586

    Feb-02-34925629496866870

    Mar-02-117556353219815971

    Apr-02-569-29-165-340598426

    May-02-233368-45-115659653

    Jun-021847492712917891079

    Jul-0275754-170-111604514

    Aug-025291278-28359477452

    Sep-026401399-263-89470391

    Oct-025291409-14089600749

    Nov-02-113691-76-73653691

    Dec-02-1207-316-407-486489349

    Jan-03-250668-405-462488545

    Feb-03-1351-581-606-880244158

    Mar-03-1352-348-698-963292155

    Apr-03-942-148-432-609365437

    May-03-71252-488-577297359

    Jun-03-802-74-629-750257231

    Jul-03-339470-671-615279102

    Aug-038881815-172386530823

    Sep-036991677-449-111464481

    Oct-03781065-706-368293366

    Nov-03-458433-370-434376450

    Dec-03-2974-1948-1899-2151-989-1126

    Jan-04-898147-1090-1111267106

    Feb-04-2222-1295-1465-1755-628-498

    Mar-04-2164-1284-1445-1761-489-747

    Apr-04-1680-848-1064-1253-200-173

    May-04-1212-277-944-1022-6274

    Jun-04-1359-501-1131-1300-90-206

    Jul-04-615444-1104-979-56-26

    Aug-041391338-1000-47181196

    Sep-042331424-1105-6583292

    Oct-04-161288-933-43082608

    Nov-04-1889-662-1649-1826-266-658

    Dec-04-2748-1227-1484-1838-146-235

    Jan-05-1439-340-1515-1640-199-314

    Feb-05-2183-1091-1522-1786-234-339

    Mar-05-2247-831-1620-1879-233-309

    Apr-05-2397-1049-1664-1869-306-317

    May-05-2177-705-1821-1920-273-305

    Jun-05-2055-657-1813-1976-350-378

    Jul-05-983659-1627-1422-207120

    Aug-05-1075669-2225-1831-355-525

    Sep-05-1951503-1647-1105-96125

    Oct-05-8591045-1752-1196-142468

    Nov-05-2653-816-2413-2530-463-865

    Dec-05-3825-1861-2448-2876-542-716

    Jan-06-2390-789-2354-2538-565-742

    Feb-06-3204-1352-2682-2930-623-786

    Mar-06-3033-1060-2541-2716-626-627

    Apr-06-3821-1570-3006-3280-721-824

    May-06-4126-2146-3707-3811-1657-1687

    Jun-06-2792-611-2527-2672-397-342

    Jul-06-1788385-2442-2235-365-132

    Aug-06-1534749-2799-2459-557-376

    Sep-06-1471732-2850-2328-684-589

    Oct-06-2179-12-2848-2414-732-462

    Nov-06-2897-576-2764-2718-669-741

    Dec-06-2816-507-1398-1907921738

    Jan-07-3201-1268-3060-3271-862-1253

    Feb-07-3155-1129-2872-3006-688-811

    Mar-07-3067-884-2703-2822-558-580

    Apr-07-3303-1248-2565-2734-509-465

    May-07-3628-1378-3151-3280-794-866

    Jun-07-3152-926-2776-3019-728-682

    Jul-07-2877-500-3425-3299-988-941

    Aug-07-1699691-3120-2781-843-306

    Sep-07-2322428-3662-3076-890-766

    Oct-07-3254-562-3720-3410-941-906

    Nov-07-3341-351-3290-3129-703-664

    Dec-07-5220-2357-3792-4383-684-1056

    Jan-08-4156-940-4019-4129-715-993

    Feb-08-3868-838-3829-3804-701-749

    Mar-08-4279-1192-3936-4067-738-1006

    Apr-08-5180-1585-4389-4658-829-788

    May-08-4808-1095-4324-4454-763-533

    Jun-08-5523-1516-4916-5387-853-1276

    Jul-08-400888-4533-4367-647-233

    Aug-08-3009914-4503-4215-63625

    Sep-08-9412785-2355-159717421716

    Oct-08-2384813-2759-2462222532

    Nov-08-3802128-273-14217521682

    Dec-08-3064-412-1649-23071679913

    Jan-09-1722140-113-8819462010

    Feb-0991885-1041619251824

    Mar-09-9921194-590-79618521318

    alper.dincer:TK'te igc gstergeleri iin ayr seri bulunuyor. 2000-2007 Ekim dnemi/2006 Kasm-2008 Aralk dnemi ve 2009 Ocak ve sonras. eyreklik data aklanmadysa aylk data ile alyoruz. Aylk data 2005'den beri mevcut. Bu seriyi birletirmek mmkndr:2000-2007 ve 2006-2008 dnemini kapsayan seriler 12 ay iin rtmektedir. Ayn tarihler iin her iki seride de gzlem bulunmaktadr. Bu gzlemleri birbirlerine oranlayarak 12 ayn her biri iin bir iskonto oran hesaplanr. Sonra bu oran kullanlarak 2006-2008 serisi (aylk olarak) 2005'e kadar uzatlabilir. Eer data eyreklik olarak mevcutsa geriye gtrme ilemi 2000'e kadar yaplabilir. gc gstergeleri 2000-2004 dneminde aylk dei eyreklik olarak mevcuttur.Sonra 2009 Ocak sonras serideki verilerin yllk deiim oran hesaplanr ve bu deiim oran kullanlarak eski seri (2006-2008) ileriye doru uzatlabilir.Tarm d isizler nasl hesaplanr?TK'ten iktisadi faaliyete gre istihdam dalmn gsteren excel tablosu indirilir. Toplam istihdamdan tarm istihdam kartlr.Daha sonra kurumsal olmayan nfusun igc durumunu gstergen excel tablosu indirilir. Buradan tarm d isizlik oran hesaplanr.Tarm d isizlik ve tarm d istihdam rakamlar kullanlarak her dnem iin tarm d igc hesaplanr.Tarm d igc = Tarm d istihdam / (1-tarm d isizlik oran)Tarm d igc'nden tarm d istihdam kartlarak tarm d isizlere ulalnr.Tarm d isizler = Tarm d igc - tarm d istihdamBugne kadar mevsime gre dzeltmede izlenen yntem:Bugne kadar mevsime gre dzeltmeyi yaparken tarm d igcn ve tarm d istihdam mevsime gre dzelttim. Hibir dummy veya ign vektr eklemedim. Elde ettiim mevsime gre dzeltilmi verilerden yukarda belirttiim denklemleri kullanarak tarm d isizleri ve tarm d isizlii mevsime gre dzeltilmi olarak hesapladm.

    ekil 5 - Reel Efektif Kur

    Cari Denge (Mevsimsel Dzeltilmi, Aylk, Milyon $)

    Enerji D Cari Denge (Mevsimsel Dzeltilmi, Aylk, Milyon $)

    ekil 6 Cari Acik Finansman

    Net uluslararas rezervlerKsa vadeli toplam borKsa vadeli toplam bor/Net uluslararas rezervReel efektif kur

    March 01512926029507%113.5

    April 01456225860567%101.2

    May 01353023902677%114.2

    June 01792213228015%111.8

    July 01-80920207-2498%105.1

    August 01-98720027-2029%98.9

    September 01-85920108-2341%98.5

    October 01-127217761-1396%96.6

    November 01-244417463-715%107.4

    December 01-294616403-557%116.3

    January 02-240815165-630%130.3

    February 02390514508372%135.8

    March 02527015096286%138.4

    April 02595213952234%143.8

    May 02675015070223%133.4

    June 02678716070237%118.9

    July 02776815430199%107.6

    August 02874114444165%112.2

    September 02946516424174%115.2

    October 02970614864153%119

    November 021001214793148%123.7

    December 021041916424158%125.4

    January 031195216781140%119.2

    February 031193117164144%122.7

    March 031089918078166%123.5

    April 031036018459178%127.9

    May 031139918200160%135.8

    June 031168218347157%140.6

    July 031232819791161%145.1

    August 031331120267152%147.2

    September 031521021067139%151.5

    October 031703721124124%142.9

    November 031554920535132%140.5

    December 031541823013149%140.6

    January 041694123852141%147

    February 041749824071138%149.1

    March 041679824922148%154.3

    April 041837824682134%152.5

    May 041844825776140%138.2

    June 041826027054148%137.5

    July 041839826653145%140.5

    August 041877828998154%140.1

    September 041929930202156%138.1

    October 042080729593142%139.9

    November 042035130714151%141.2

    December 042026132209159%143.2

    January 052040631401154%150.6

    February 052203630510138%156

    March 052465733444136%154.7

    April 052394233937142%151.8

    May 052279234143150%153.3

    June 052664434850131%159.5

    July 052842634806122%163

    August 052914336523125%160.9

    September 052856938499135%162.2

    October 053201337124116%165.7

    November 053207135524111%170.8

    December 053672138288104%171.4

    January 06384923604894%172.2

    February 06427643928692%174.6

    March 06456344084690%173

    April 06474074099586%171.8

    May 06458454084189%158.5

    June 06461034196491%142.1

    July 06452424181292%147

    August 06446854057291%153.7

    September 06436474136095%155.5

    October 06432054128996%158.3

    November 06437974166795%160.7

    December 06450804264895%160.1

    January 07457723731182%165

    February 07485023681176%167.9

    March 07495163736075%165.6

    April 07514273756173%170.4

    May 07503693827876%173.5

    June 07521173949176%176

    July 07527623902874%176.9

    August 07541793927572%172.9

    September 07550693929371%178.3

    October 07556334045773%187.2

    November 07552054142075%187.1

    December 07548274319079%190.3

    January 08565014201674%191

    February 08559254346878%189.3

    March 08580564591279%176

    April 08583354778482%168

    May 08592154950884%178.2

    June 08566705329494%180

    July 08583765692598%181.1

    August 08582555557695%194.1

    September 08593675770897%192

    October 08557375350396%174.1

    November 08548945036192%170.2

    December 08564185060890%168.8

    January 09556194882188%166.5

    February 09550774812887%163.4

    March 0954282159.4

    April 0952011166.7

    May 09167.3

    ekil 6 Cari Acik Finansman

    &A

    Page &P

    Ksa vadeli toplam bor/Net uluslararas rezerv

    Reel efektif kur

    Bor/rezerv

    Kur endeksi

    ekil 7 TFE

    Ticari KredilerKredilerMevduatlar

    Merkez BankasGenel HkmetBankalarDier SektrlerMerkez Bankas

    TP.OD.D001: I-CARI ISLEMLER HESABIII-B1.Dogrudan YatirimlarII-B2.Portfoy YatirimlariII-B3211.Uzun VadeII-B3212.Kisa VadeII-B32212.Uzun VadeII-B32213.Kisa VadeII-B32222.Uzun VadeII-B3222.3.Kisa VadeII-B32231.Uzun VadeII-B32232.Kisa VadeII-B32241.Uzun VadeII-B32242.Kisa VadeII-B32311.Uzun VadeII-B32312.Kisa Vade

    Jan-06-2390715206912-110100-148070-3064769-61-36-14

    Feb-06-320433212110-488007001531195297650-41-14

    Mar-06-30333362981477100-1250110721486152-50-29

    Apr-06-3821525-585026500-314088416940844-61-24

    May-06-41266752-31077107400-940900-265173525-78-40

    Jun-06-2792579-83601830022501434-13998529-67-26

    Jul-06-1788209171610-6200-620235-1646263-44-34

    Aug-06-153431891616237005220349-15251025181-110-92

    Sep-06-1471151746311700-176011812391171142-103-70

    Oct-06-21792828402420-25600-4000504-1303657-31-57-38

    Nov-06-289719531093-3-31200-530-263-5781164-72-90-40

    Dec-06-28161692-872-939000-15704275-24891940133-78-32

    Jan-07-3201550131241597002260418-316-32220-38-33

    Feb-07-315516283280-13480050934-437866-75-52-34

    Mar-07-30671150-1902533500-850778-5045832-35-61-32

    Apr-07-3303673250475000-3580640-222115055-54-28

    May-07-36287228-263400-10609868333068411-67-29

    Jun-07-31521310-10216605002201017841636170-62-29

    Jul-07-28771758253737962003700291-890922-94-81-46

    Aug-07-16991029-42081128600940844192655462-161-100

    Sep-07-23221535-24012-1600-1570756-10831848-165-120-59

    Oct-07-32541041-277283900-3480-566272486-30-89-51

    Nov-07-3341470-3695-346700-990580-4352205-30-74-36

    Dec-07-522031236074305005180836613328-475-74-40

    Jan-08-4156986242-5105100-1440565-4812789109-91-33

    Feb-08-3868644368432000-2650974335160649-64-20

    Mar-08-42791870-1926-1110000-760303-3962886-46-87-28

    Apr-08-5180725-21353561700-1620546979198076-84-27

    May-08-48081817235530107800-160198-2503892310-86-25

    Jun-08-55232210274626138000-2260172103691175-90-23

    Jul-08-4008134288575940004400416341538232-190-42

    Aug-08-3009763-12186034800-11901529-611883-11-275-57

    Sep-08-9411206-853-44-63900-220-709497205788-146-39

    Oct-08-23841812-4781-1-153200-3020-821276801-148-141-31

    Nov-08-380918-8963-151800-1090-1331-116068332-84-18

    Dec-08-30641293167-5-75300420-1432-260-387-173-94-16

    Jan-09-172933-841-5-48900360345-580-793393-89-13

    Feb-099457-1966-20-219002090-594-173-25513-54-10

    Mar-09-992502-402-3-13000-1090-582-892-914-18-52-12

    Cari aa oranlar

    aylk toplamlarUzunKsaDorudan yatrmlarPortfy yatrmlarUzun vadeli kredilerKsa vadeli krediler

    2006(3)Sep-06-4793354940781592002840702-4502822326-257-1963566-2280.740.850.74-0.05

    2006(4)Dec-06-7892647342458-17800-61004516-4370376130-225-1107450-46280.820.540.94-0.59

    2007(1)Mar-07-942382794502197800014602130-12576376-90-151-998520-6660.880.480.90-0.07

    2007(2)Jun-07-100832705149111128900-442026436955854636-183-86788325340.270.150.780.25

    2007(3)Sep-07-68984322-19116012320030701891-19545425203-362-2057321-7240.63-0.281.06-0.10

    2007(4)Dec-07-118154634-336529811007106078538019-535-237-127848910020.39-0.280.720.08

    2008(1)Mar-08-123033500-1316-12147100-48501842-5427281112-242-8183849600.28-0.110.680.08

    2008(2)Jun-08-155114752296691307500-40407619399563561-260-75975145000.310.190.630.29

    2008(3)Sep-08-79583311-11869164900299082420705478309-611-138608128900.42-0.150.760.36

    2008(4)Dec-08-58284023-5510-3-380300-3690-2845-14448211-319-65-3054-40010.69-0.95-0.52-0.69

    2009(1)Mar-09-11551892-3209-28-838001360-831-1645-1962388-195-35-2880-21301.64-2.78-2.49-1.84

    Cari aa oranlar

    Senelik toplamlarUzunKsaDorudan yatrmlarPortfy yatrmlarUzun vadeli kredilerKsa vadeli krediler

    Jan-07-3286224047842859181600-338010114-396213226576-817-47222244-20420.730.260.680.06

    Feb-07-32813253431049758265200-403010895-559411116451-828-49220838-29830.770.320.640.09

    Mar-07-3284726157829749221600-363010566-631216087364-839-49525500-42270.800.250.780.13

    Apr-07-32329263051138656200100-407010322-670316829375-832-49925968-48260.810.350.800.15

    May-07-31831202751450147156100-419010408-560518162761-821-48827377-37710.640.460.860.12

    Jun-07-32191210061431653198300-62209991-538218813902-816-49127419-29880.650.440.850.09

    Jul-07-33280225551513780300700-190010047-610819109805-853-50328193-27990.680.450.850.08

    Aug-07-3344520395931389325600-618010542-4564207391086-904-51129848-7330.610.280.890.02

    Sep-07-3429621779832798312300-599011180-688621416779-921-50031174-34840.640.240.910.10

    Oct-07-35371199924026106341800-547010620-495623245780-953-51332471-12710.570.110.920.04

    Nov-07-3581518509-762106419700-593011463-481324286822-937-50934325-3030.520.020.960.01

    Dec-07-38219199407171194112008207271-166325674214-933-5173221321460.520.020.840.06

    Jan-08-3917415425-216599506600-28807418-182828785303-986-5173502830240.390.060.890.08

    Feb-08-3988714441-5077104503800-55807458-105629525427-998-5033553139060.360.130.890.10

    Mar-08-4109915161-510188480300-54906983-94826579416-1024-4993207737720.370.120.780.09

    Apr-08-4297615213-9740116537000-3530688925327409437-1054-4983300755620.350.230.770.13

    May-08-4415616308-7393148581400-26306101-83028233336-1073-4943314648260.370.170.750.11

    Jun-08-4652717208-3626168658900-51105101-70430288341-1101-4883394557380.370.080.730.12

    Jul-08-4765816792-5278206656700-44104814182030904667-1210-4843427385700.350.110.720.18

    Aug-08-4896816526-2288255662900-65405499174030132194-1324-4413390881220.340.050.690.17

    Sep-08-4758716197-2901199600600-51904034332030341447-1350-4213270593520.340.060.690.20

    ekil 7 TFE

    &A

    Page &P

    Dorudan yatrmlar

    Portfy yatrmlar

    Uzun vadeli krediler

    Ksa vadeli krediler

    ekil 8 Petrol & Medya Enf

    TFETFE HTFE ITFE (yllk deiim)TFE H (yllk deiim)TFE I (yllk deiim)

    Jan-0394.89494

    Feb-0396.29595

    Mar-0398.19696

    Apr-0399.19897

    May-031009999

    Jun-03100.1100100

    Jul-0399.9100100

    Aug-03100.1101101

    Sep-03101.4103103

    Oct-03102.4104104

    Nov-03103.7105105

    Dec-03104.1105105

    Jan-04104.810610611%13%13%

    Feb-04105.410610610%12%12%

    Mar-04106.41061068%10%10%

    Apr-04106.91071078%9%10%

    May-04107.41081087%9%9%

    Jun-04107.21091097%9%9%

    Jul-04107.71091098%9%9%

    Aug-04108.51101108%9%9%

    Sep-04109.61111118%8%8%

    Oct-041121131139%9%9%

    Nov-04113.51141159%9%10%

    Dec-04113.91151159%10%10%

    Jan-05114.51151169%8%9%

    Feb-05114.51151159%8%8%

    Mar-05114.81151158%8%8%

    Apr-05115.61161178%8%9%

    May-05116.71181209%9%11%

    Jun-05116.81191219%9%11%

    Jul-05116.11181208%8%10%

    Aug-05117.11181208%7%9%

    Sep-05118.3118.8120.38%7%8%

    Oct-05120.5120.5122.58%7%8%

    Nov-05122.11211248%6%8%

    Dec-05122.71221248%6%8%

    Jan-06123.61221238%6%6%

    Feb-06123.81211228%5%6%

    Mar-06124.21211228%5%6%

    Apr-06125.81221249%5%6%

    May-06128.212512710%6%6%

    Jun-06128.612612910%6%7%

    Jul-06129.712712912%8%8%

    Aug-06129.212712910%8%8%

    Sep-06130.812913111%9%9%

    Oct-06132.5131.5133.610%9%9%

    Nov-06134.2132.5134.610%10%9%

    Dec-06134.5132.6134.510%9%8%

    Jan-07135.8132.2133.810%8%9%

    Feb-07136.4132133.210%9%9%

    Mar-07137.7132.7133.711%10%10%

    Apr-07139.3134.513611%10%10%

    May-07140136.5138.59%9%9%

    Jun-07139.7137.3139.59%9%8%

    Jul-07138.7136.5138.17%7%7%

    Aug-07138.7135.9136.87%7%6%

    Sep-07140.1137.1137.57%6%5%

    Oct-07142.7139.4139.78%6%5%

    Nov-07145.5140.9140.98%6%5%

    Dec-07145.8141.41418%7%5%

    Jan-08146.9140.6139.78%6%4%

    Feb-08148.8140.6138.99%7%4%

    Mar-08150.3142.4140.19%7%5%

    Apr-08152.8146.1143.310%9%5%

    May-08155.1150147.311%10%6%

    Jun-08154.5151.6148.411%10%6%

    Jul-08155.4151147.112%11%7%

    Aug-08155150.7146.512%11%7%

    Sep-08155.7151.5147.611%11%7%

    Oct-08159.8153.315012%10%7%

    Nov-08161.1154.3151.411%10%7%

    Dec-08160.4153.9150.810%9%7%

    Jan-09160.9153.215010%9%7%

    Feb-09160.4152.11498%8%7%

    Mar-09162.1151.2147.98%6%6%

    Apr-09162.2152.4149.36%4%4%

    May-09163.2154.5151.95%3%3%

    ekil 8 Petrol & Medya Enf

    TFE (yllk deiim)

    TFE H (yllk deiim)

    TFE I (yllk deiim)

    ekil 9 Para politikas

    FE (sol eksen)Basl rnler ve kaytl medya (sol eksen)Rafine edilmi petrol rnleri (sa eksen)

    1/1/060.05110.03680.3857

    2/1/060.05260.0380.3458

    3/1/060.0421-0.0010.2133

    4/1/060.04960.02290.2127

    5/1/060.07660.02970.4134

    6/1/060.12520.02520.465

    7/1/060.14340.06340.4875

    8/1/060.12320.07340.3376

    9/1/060.11190.11430.0948

    10/1/060.10940.10910.0132

    11/1/060.11670.08480.1184

    12/1/060.11580.08890.1714

    1/1/070.09370.09740.0224

    2/1/070.10130.09180.0096

    3/1/070.10920.11380.0935

    4/1/070.09680.10280.0433

    5/1/070.07140.1073-0.0271

    6/1/070.02890.1106-0.1483

    7/1/070.02080.0804-0.1803

    8/1/070.03720.0652-0.1131

    9/1/070.05020.03530.0073

    10/1/070.04410.0360.0871

    11/1/070.05650.07590.2508

    12/1/070.05940.070.206

    1/1/080.06440.09230.3085

    2/1/080.08150.08190.3388

    3/1/080.1050.07390.39

    4/1/080.14560.10260.4781

    5/1/080.16530.09330.5667

    6/1/080.17030.0910.6629

    7/1/080.18410.10330.6814

    8/1/080.14670.10520.4344

    9/1/080.12490.10190.3717

    10/1/080.13290.11290.2779

    11/1/080.12250.10140.0513

    12/1/080.08110.1082-0.1759

    1/1/090.0790.0977-0.2006

    2/1/090.06430.1013-0.1845

    3/1/090.03460.1012-0.2668

    4/1/09-0.00350.124-0.3085

    5/1/09-0.02460.1294-0.3385

    ekil 9 Para politikas

    Basl rnler ve kaytl medya (sol eksen)

    FE (sol eksen)

    Rafine edilmi petrol rnleri (sa eksen)

    ekil 3 sizler ve isizli (2)

    TCMB gecelik borlanma faizi (bileik)Gsterge faiz (bileik)12 Ay Sonrasinin Yillik TUFE Beklentisi (%) TP.BEK.S01.E.A: 1E.(Aritmetik Ortalama)12 Ay Sonrasinin Yillik TUFE Beklentisi (%)Beklenen reel faiz*TCMB gecelik bor verme faizi (bileik)

    04/01/070.1910.2100.252

    05/01/070.1910.2130.252

    08/01/070.1910.2140.252

    09/01/070.1910.2140.252

    10/01/070.1910.2170.252

    11/01/070.1910.2140.252

    12/01/070.1910.2140.252

    15/01/070.1910.2121/15/070.0680.1340.252

    16/01/070.1910.2120.252

    17/01/070.1910.2140.252

    18/01/070.1910.2120.252

    19/01/070.1910.2110.252

    22/01/070.1910.2080.252

    23/01/070.1910.2080.252

    24/01/070.1910.2040.252

    25/01/070.1910.2010.252

    26/01/070.1910.2040.252

    29/01/070.1910.2010.252

    30/01/070.1910.2020.252

    31/01/070.1910.2001/31/070.0680.1230.252

    01/02/070.1910.1960.252

    02/02/070.1910.1950.252

    05/02/070.1910.1970.252

    06/02/070.1910.1960.252

    07/02/070.1910.1960.252

    08/02/070.1910.1980.252

    09/02/070.1910.1960.252

    12/02/070.1910.1970.252

    13/02/070.1910.1960.252

    14/02/070.1910.1930.252

    15/02/070.1910.1912/15/070.0690.1140.252

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    27/01/090.1390.1510.168

    28/01/090.1390.1520.168

    29/01/090.1390.1510.168

    30/01/090.1390.1511/30/090.0750.0710.168

    02/02/090.1390.1540.168

    03/02/090.1390.1540.168

    04/02/090.1390.1520.168

    05/02/090.1390.1520.168

    06/02/090.1390.1520.168

    09/02/090.1390.1510.168

    10/02/090.1390.1500.168

    11/02/090.1390.1500.168

    12/02/090.1390.1520.168

    13/02/090.1390.1520.168

    16/02/090.1390.1532/15/090.0720.0760.168

    17/02/090.1390.1560.168

    18/02/090.1390.1560.168

    19/02/090.1390.1530.168

    20/02/090.1220.1480.150

    23/02/090.1220.1500.150

    24/02/090.1220.1520.150

    2/25/090.1220.1510.150

    2/26/090.1220.1520.150

    2/27/090.1220.1532/28/090.0690.0790.150

    3/2/090.1220.1560.150

    3/3/090.1220.1550.150

    3/4/090.1220.1520.150

    3/5/090.1220.1510.150

    3/6/090.1220.1540.150

    3/9/090.1220.1530.150

    3/10/090.1220.1530.150

    3/11/090.1220.1510.150

    3/12/090.1220.1510.150

    3/13/090.1220.1470.150

    3/16/090.1220.1443/15/090.0670.0720.150

    3/17/090.1220.1450.150

    3/18/090.1220.1430.150

    3/19/090.1220.1410.150

    3/20/090.1110.1430.139

    3/23/090.1110.1390.139

    3/24/090.1110.1380.139

    3/25/090.1110.1410.139

    3/26/090.1110.1410.139

    3/27/090.1110.1420.139

    3/30/090.1110.1443/30/090.0680.0710.139

    3/31/090.1110.1410.139

    4/1/090.1110.1400.139

    4/2/090.1110.1360.139

    4/3/090.1110.1360.139

    4/6/090.1110.1350.139

    4/7/090.1110.1340.139

    4/8/090.1110.1330.139

    4/9/090.1110.1300.139

    4/10/090.1110.1290.139

    4/13/090.1110.1300.139

    4/14/090.1110.1294/15/090.0680.0570.139

    4/15/090.1110.1250.139

    4/16/090.1110.1260.139

    4/17/090.1020.1240.130

    4/20/090.1020.1230.130

    4/21/090.1020.1250.130

    4/22/090.1020.1240.130

    4/24/090.1020.1230.130

    4/27/090.1020.1230.130

    4/28/090.1020.1240.130

    4/29/090.1020.1230.130

    4/30/090.1020.1224/30/090.0690.0500.130

    5/4/090.1020.1220.130

    5/5/090.1020.1190.130

    5/6/090.1020.1180.130

    5/7/090.1020.1160.130

    5/8/090.1020.1190.130

    5/11/090.1020.1190.130

    5/12/090.1020.1200.130

    5/13/090.1020.1190.130

    5/14/090.1020.1200.130

    5/15/090.0970.1205/15/090.0650.0520.125

    414

    ekil 3 sizler ve isizli (2)

    TCMB gecelik borlanma faizi (bileik)

    Gsterge faiz (bileik)

    TCMB gecelik bor verme faizi (bileik)

    Beklenen Reel Faiz*

    Non farm unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted)Non farm unemployed (seasonally adjusted)

    1/1/050.13726832683

    2/1/050.13627042704

    3/1/050.13627282728

    4/1/050.13727482748

    5/1/050.13727722772

    6/1/050.13627842784

    7/1/050.13627792779

    8/1/050.13527952795

    9/1/050.13528022802

    10/1/050.13528202820

    11/1/050.13628552855

    12/1/050.13528152815

    1/1/060.13327942794

    2/1/060.12927232723

    3/1/060.12827202720

    4/1/060.12827022702

    5/1/060.12726902690

    6/1/060.12726922692

    7/1/060.12626922692

    8/1/060.12727162716

    9/1/060.12627082708

    10/1/060.12326712671

    11/1/060.12126522652

    12/1/060.12526982698

    1/1/070.12126562656

    2/1/070.12327032703

    3/1/070.12226882688

    4/1/070.12727482748

    5/1/070.12727552755

    6/1/070.12727532753

    7/1/070.12627422742

    8/1/070.12627602760

    9/1/070.12627622762

    10/1/070.12727782778

    11/1/070.12527302730

    12/1/070.12226682668

    1/1/080.12127092709

    2/1/080.12227542754

    3/1/080.12427952795

    4/1/080.12627812781

    5/1/080.12728192819

    6/1/080.12928732873

    7/1/080.13329652965

    8/1/080.13629832983

    9/1/080.14030763076

    10/1/080.14531863186

    11/1/080.15333463346

    12/1/080.16435523552

    1/1/090.17237253725

    2/1/090.1773799379937990

    0.1212652

    0.1773799

    &A

    Page &P

    Non farm unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted)

    Non farm unemployed (seasonally adjusted)

    Non farm unemployment rate

    Unemployed, in thousand

    alper.dincer:TK'te igc gstergeleri iin ayr seri bulunuyor. 2000-2007 Ekim dnemi/2006 Kasm-2008 Aralk dnemi ve 2009 Ocak ve sonras. eyreklik data aklanmadysa aylk data ile alyoruz. Aylk data 2005'den beri mevcut. Bu seriyi birletirmek mmkndr:2000-2007 ve 2006-2008 dnemini kapsayan seriler 12 ay iin rtmektedir. Ayn tarihler iin her iki seride de gzlem bulunmaktadr. Bu gzlemleri birbirlerine oranlayarak 12 ayn her biri iin bir iskonto oran hesaplanr. Sonra bu oran kullanlarak 2006-2008 serisi (aylk olarak) 2005'e kadar uzatlabilir. Eer data eyreklik olarak mevcutsa geriye gtrme ilemi 2000'e kadar yaplabilir. gc gstergeleri 2000-2004 dneminde aylk dei eyreklik olarak mevcuttur.Sonra 2009 Ocak sonras serideki verilerin yllk deiim oran hesaplanr ve bu deiim oran kullanlarak eski seri (2006-2008) ileriye doru uzatlabilir.Tarm d isizler nasl hesaplanr?TK'ten iktisadi faaliyete gre istihdam dalmn gsteren excel tablosu indirilir. Toplam istihdamdan tarm istihdam kartlr.Daha sonra kurumsal olmayan nfusun igc durumunu gstergen excel tablosu indirilir. Buradan tarm d isizlik oran hesaplanr.Tarm d isizlik ve tarm d istihdam rakamlar kullanlarak her dnem iin tarm d igc hesaplanr.Tarm d igc = Tarm d istihdam / (1-tarm d isizlik oran)Tarm d igc'nden tarm d istihdam kartlarak tarm d isizlere ulalnr.Tarm d isizler = Tarm d igc - tarm d istihdamBugne kadar mevsime gre dzeltmede izlenen yntem:Bugne kadar mevsime gre dzeltmeyi yaparken tarm d igcn ve tarm d istihdam mevsime gre dzelttim. Hibir dummy veya ign vektr eklemedim. Elde ettiim mevsime gre dzeltilmi verilerden yukarda belirttiim denklemleri kullanarak tarm d isizleri ve tarm d isizlii mevsime gre dzeltilmi olarak hesapladm.

  • Crisis and Unemployment Graph 4. Labor force and Added Worker Effect Female labor force participation rate is increasing.Labor force participation (%) Source: TURKSTAT and betam

    Chart1

    0.01267943220.06471148110.0724157115

    0.02533244320.0650213060.049465529

    0.02557314020.05621644260.0550491318

    0.02252609120.05143723130.0507220144

    0.02138144650.06465761130.0470755892

    0.02387347060.04535005950.0430319411

    0.02958615260.04010541980.0429806488

    0.02961595270.02394745790.029202545

    0.02633758730.01952456970.0296736529

    0.018712049-0.00747967480.0304497907

    0.0107492245-0.02681951090.0266323104

    0.0163144244-0.01630395270.0211224974

    0.01833465270.0110862620.0228158862

    0.02028681850.03985224840.0330904978

    0.01493663440.06712058190.0315881319

    0.01517366080.05502392710.0282050211

    0.02118271660.05163255490.0298228023

    0.02749835370.0653322930.0280541455

    0.02584466740.08335801460.0316049155

    0.01688480830.07950187720.0285190658

    0.01410412920.08329319510.0250094379

    0.0199126620.10303327740.0134942834

    0.02416829260.12971452180.0032091621

    0.03684148530.14136607480.0096977855

    0.03316048750.12759306620.0168647412

    39845398450.0242295164

    0.0254244001

    0.0231781965

    0.0273231056

    0.034987088

    0.0369730599

    0.0289477203

    0.0275198714

    0.0361287965

    0.0447174015

    0.057498287

    0.0522017818

    0.0494299709

    Men

    Women

    Total

    Chart3

    0.05706266250.1409055104

    0.03694710470.1043376869

    0.04219598010.1111585637

    0.04030780430.0955899991

    0.03759103710.0881214352

    0.03248612710.0890513849

    0.03219205260.0909967912

    0.0171857040.0825024035

    0.02064999510.0686928164

    0.02212702370.0653186907

    0.01974708090.0550010499

    0.0101000660.066872428

    0.01267943220.0647114811

    0.02533244320.065021306

    0.02557314020.0562164426

    0.02252609120.0514372313

    0.02138144650.0646576113

    0.02387347060.0453500595

    0.02958615260.0401054198

    0.02961595270.0239474579

    0.02633758730.0195245697

    0.018712049-0.0074796748

    0.0107492245-0.0268195109

    0.0163144244-0.0163039527

    0.01833465270.011086262

    0.02028681850.0398522484

    0.01493663440.0671205819

    0.01517366080.0550239271

    0.02118271660.0516325549

    0.02749835370.065332293

    0.02584466740.0833580146

    0.01688480830.0795018772

    0.01410412920.0832931951

    0.0199126620.1030332774

    0.02416829260.1297145218

    0.03684148530.1413660748

    0.03316048750.1275930662

    Men

    Women

    Sheet1

    Tarm d istihdamTarm d isizlik oranTarm d isizlerTarm d isizlik oranTarm d isizler

    1/1/05136180.15223851/1/05208156289145260.136541672145.9942

    2/1/05136940.15424342/1/05208386230146080.13596262163.708

    3/1/05138470.14522993/1/05211906417147730.136403872185.1925

    4/1/05142280.13421624/1/05219936812151810.137008742205.7304

    5/1/05144830.12520375/1/05227217266154550.136705092229.2857

    6/1/05145830.12520516/1/05230587494155640.136216752240.1143

    7/1/05145570.12720837/1/05232277690155370.135836932235.1587

    8/1/05148460.12821448/1/05228386990158480.134674152251.1307

    9/1/05148980.12921709/1/05225666661159050.134568742257.4283

    10/1/05149720.131221810/1/05221976213159840.134943922274.5504

    11/1/05150140.137233911/1/05219285920160080.135760112308.1189

    12/1/05148540.143242812/1/05213325493158390.135193452270.9768

    1/1/06146530.14925091/1/06208345204156300.132973022257.0828

    2/1/06144710.14824592/1/06206045167154370.12948022185.5622

    3/1/06147450.13722973/1/06212725541157310.1282772183.0428

    4/1/06150950.12521234/1/06221726065161070.128266842165.8415

    5/1/06153420.11519675/1/06228606488163720.127022072153.6072

    6/1/06153860.11519736/1/06232006779164210.12655182155.4059

    7/1/06153680.11720087/1/06232576854164030.126150592154.8363

    8/1/06154290.1220748/1/06232796809164700.126796172178.0243

    9/1/06155160.1220859/1/06231286563165650.125661682169.897

    10/1/06156390.119208310/1/06228056109166960.123102872135.6225

    11/1/06212355560156750.122214611/1/06226415928167130.93790.121068262118.0735

    12/1/06207585416153420.133231212/1/06221355775163600.93780.12531772162.6125

    1/1/07203905203151870.13723661/1/07217495550161990.93750.120618492128.0518

    2/1/07200585003150560.14224412/1/07213985337160610.93740.122685442169.6386

    3/1/07206185313153050.13122683/1/07219975668163290.93730.121780462154.8952

    4/1/07212165665155510.12421674/1/07226386045165930.93720.127365942211.1822

    5/1/07218436042158000.11520265/1/07233096448168610.93710.127180562217.9176

    6/1/07220956284158110.11520276/1/07235816707168740.9370.126846222215.0211

    7/1/07222496375158740.11620557/1/07237476804169430.93690.12554172204.8071

    8/1/07220606174158850.11921158/1/07235486591169570.93680.12635112222.2713

    9/1/07218825983159000.1221379/1/07233616387169740.93670.126116122223.8699

    10/1/07213105512157980.123218210/1/07227505884168660.93670.127245892237.9772

    11/1/07208675211156560.12622210.124996042192.8059

    12/1/07204434908155350.1322820.121739582134.6012

    1/1/08201124676154360.13824240.120814832180.0855

    2/1/08201624751154110.14224990.121905192220.0483

    3/1/08207525115156370.13423760.124169312257.4547

    4/1/08216505726159240.12322000.126087762244.0758

    5/1/08222776034162430.11520830.127418492280.4646

    6/1/08225576226163310.11721340.129469862332.3807

    7/1/08226226297163250.12322550.133284952419.7733

    8/1/08225096314161950.12723180.135560142436.2093

    9/1/08222136123160900.13324250.1403472524.2688

    10/1/08219455896160490.1425610.14539212627.6112

    11/1/08213155494158210.15428120.153485182775.8241

    12/1/08207365110156260.17331710.16399162965.1971

    1/1/09154360.1934900.171575933100.567

    2/1/09154110.19836560.176762423185.9195

    100

    26770001165830.0435498693

    38020002818820.0741404524

    Sheet1

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    &A

    Page &P

    Tarm d isizlik oran

    Tarm d isizler

    sizlik oran

    sizler, bin kii

    Sheet2

    Kentte eitime gre kadn igcne katlm oran (%, 2008)

    Okur-yazar olmayanlarLise alt eitimlilerLise ve dengi meslekYksekretim

    5.413.23269.8

    Seilmi lkelerde igcne katlm oranlar (%)

    ErkekKadn

    sve81,476,8

    Danimarka83,976,4

    Norve81,675,9

    Finlandiya77,273,8

    Almanya81,870,1

    Portekiz79,468,8

    Fransa74,965,6

    Bulgaristan70,662,1

    spanya81,461,4

    Romanya70,156,0

    Yunanistan79,154,9

    talya74,450,7

    Trkiye74,426,1

    Kaynak: Eurostat

    Sheet3

    13109.72060535511/1/05155643552120120.141139845251273725140.1983134.66334164592939

    13176.16448598132/1/05155573525120320.144140565281270625750.1973206.72478206723006

    13169.87768786133/1/05157793625121540.135140515412279226200.1863218.67321867323017

    13333.94605714294/1/05161983749124490.125142275794306327310.1733302.29746070133095

    13446.22155756215/1/05166123899127130.114143496109336727420.1733315.59854897223107

    13561.17567567576/1/05168123960128520.112144736247353427130.1823316.62591687043108

    13616.20958286367/1/05169664075128910.113145336261361626450.193265.43209876543059

    13901.85823927778/1/05169123764131480.114148405926322627000.1933345.72490706323134

    13901.4314898429/1/05167603611131490.114148415806305027560.1973432.12951432133215

    13915.928846153810/1/05165433410131330.116148565654280328510.1963546.01990049753322

    13994.624315068511/1/05163393268130710.124149215589265229370.1893621.45499383483397

    13961.119354838712/1/05160173095129220.132148875315239929160.1873586.71586715873364

    13857.79616724741/1/06156912964127270.139147825143223929040.1883576.3546798033353

    13662.98561484922/1/06155402976125640.138145755063219128720.1893541.307028363320

    13725.59358533793/1/06159263142127840.127146445346239929470.1763576.45631067963352

    13871.40814479644/1/06163643280130840.116148015807278630210.1653617.96407185633391

    13951.67897091725/1/06167113401133100.106148886149308630630.1513607.77385159013381

    14001.72575250846/1/06168873483134040.103149436312329630160.1653611.97604790423384

    14054.54331848557/1/06170283557134710.102150016229329729320.1773562.57594167683338

    14140.77146042368/1/06170703530135400.103150956209327929300.1913621.75525339933393

    14188.49598214299/1/06169903418135720.104151476138314529930.1843667.89215686273436

    14223.846934225210/1/06168743253136210.103151855931285630750.1863777.64127764133539

    157603001127580.1065475255929170.18635830.937911/1/06168033200136030.106152165838272831100.1863820.63882063880.9379

    154012977124240.1195357243929170.18735890.937812/1/06164223174132480.119150375712260131110.1873826.56826568270.9378

    151222871122510.1275268233329340.17835700.93751/1/07161303062130680.127149695619248931300.1783807.78588807790.9375

    149202774121460.1335140223029100.17735350.93742/1/07159162959129570.133149455483237931040.1773771.5674362090.9374

    152452900123450.1235373241329600.16435410.93733/1/07162653094131710.123150185732257431580.1643777.51196172250.9373

    155863019125670.1145631264729840.16335650.93724/1/07166303221134090.114151346008282431840.1633804.06212664280.9372

    159143146127680.1045930289630340.15735990.93715/1/07169823357136250.104152066328309032380.1573841.0438908660.9371

    160903231128590.1036005305529510.16635380.9376/1/07171723448137240.103153006409326031490.1663775.77937649880.937

    162393230130090.1016009314528640.17534720.93697/1/07173333448138850.101154456414335730570.1753705.45454545460.9369

    162293169130600.1035831300628240.18734740.93688/1/07173243383139410.103155426224320930150.1873708.48708487080.9368

    161673105130620.1035715287828370.1935030.93679/1/07172603315139450.103155466101307230290.193739.50617283950.9367

    158962956129400.1075414255528590.18635120.936710/1/07169703156138140.107154695780272830520.1863749.38574938580.9367

    156402860127800.1145227235028770.1753487

    153892791125980.1215054211729370.1683530

    MenWomenMenWomenTotal151392706124330.134973197030030.1683609

    1/1/0513110293916048151082730123780.1345054202130330.1753676

    2/1/0513176300616182153432842125010.1255409227331360.173778

    3/1/0513170301716187158203048127720.1135830267831520.1623761

    4/1/0513334309516429161823129130530.1036095290431910.1573785

    5/1/0513446310716553163863173132130.1036170305331170.1733769

    6/1/0513561310816669164473191132560.1076175310630690.1843761

    7/1/0513616305916676163723210131620.1116137310330340.1913750

    8/1/0513902313417036161943169130250.1186019295330660.1923795

    9/1/0513901321517116160813135129460.1245864276131030.1993874

    10/1/0513916332217237156762986126900.1415639250731320.2053940

    11/1/0513995339717391153152877124380.1635421223431870.2094029

    12/1/0513961336417325

    1/1/061385833530.060.14172110.072

    2/1/061366333200.040.10169830.049

    3/1/061372633520.040.11170780.055

    4/1/061387133910.040.10172620.051

    5/1/061395233810.040.09173330.047

    6/1/061400233840.030.09173860.043

    7/1/061405533380.030.09173920.043

    8/1/061414133930.020.08175340.029

    9/1/061418834360.020.07176240.030

    10/1/061422435390.020.07177620.030

    11/1/061427135830.020.06178540.027

    12/1/061410235890.010.07176910.021

    1/1/071403435700.010.06176030.023

    2/1/071400935350.030.07175450.033

    3/1/071407735410.030.06176170.032

    4/1/071418435650.020.05177490.028

    5/1/071425035990.020.06178490.030

    6/1/071433635380.020.05178740.028

    7/1/071447034720.030.04179420.032

    8/1/071456034740.030.02180340.029

    9/1/071456235030.030.02180650.025

    10/1/071449035120.02-0.01180020.013

    11/1/071442434870.01-0.03179120.003

    12/1/071433235300.02-0.02178620.010

    1/1/081429136090.020.01179000.017

    2/1/081429336760.020.04179700.024

    3/1/081428737780.010.07180650.025

    4/1/081439937610.020.06181600.023

    5/1/081455237850.020.05183370.027

    6/1/081473037690.030.07184990.035

    7/1/081484437610.030.08186050.037

    8/1/081480537500.020.08185560.029

    9/1/081476837950.010.08185620.028

    10/1/081477938740.020.10186520.036

    11/1/081477339400.020.13187130.045

    12/1/081486040290.040.14188890.057

    1/1/091476540700.030.13188350.052

    2/1/09147414117188580.049

    0.03316048750.1275930662

    0.03132950580.1198026135

    Sheet3

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    Men

    Women

    Total

  • Crisis and Unemployment Graph 5. Recession Employment Dynamics Source: TURKSTAT and betam Female employment increases. Male employment decreases.

    Chart3

    0.010.020.0164248822

    0.020.040.023607099

    0.010.060.0216807956

    0.020.060.023988256

    0.020.050.0280091449

    0.030.060.0328925457

    0.020.070.0284179309

    0.010.070.0194948825

    00.080.0119785938

    00.090.0158635104

    -0.010.090.0105390904

    -0.010.090.0058577406

    -0.0297069130.0598290598-0.0117085587

    -0.03647416410.0519357885-0.0185598571

    Male

    Female

    Total

    Sheet1

    Tarm D gc (Yoy)

    DateErkekKadnErkek % DeiimKadn % DeiimToplamToplam % Deiim

    1/1/0513110293916048

    2/1/0513176300616182

    3/1/0513170301716187

    4/1/0513334309516429

    5/1/0513446310716553

    6/1/0513561310816669

    7/1/0513616305916676

    8/1/0513902313417036

    9/1/0513901321517116

    10/1/0513916332217237

    11/1/0513995339717391

    12/1/0513961336417325

    1/1/061385833530.060.14172110.0721/1/06

    2/1/061366333200.040.10169830.0492/1/06

    3/1/061372633520.040.11170780.0553/1/06

    4/1/061387133910.040.10172620.0514/1/06

    5/1/061395233810.040.09173330.0475/1/06

    6/1/061400233840.030.09173860.0436/1/06

    7/1/061405533380.030.09173920.0437/1/06

    8/1/061414133930.020.08175340.0298/1/06

    9/1/061418834360.020.07176240.0309/1/06

    10/1/061422435390.020.07177620.03010/1/06

    11/1/061427135830.020.06178540.02711/1/06

    12/1/061410235890.010.07176910.02112/1/06

    1/1/071403435700.010.06176030.0231/1/07

    2/1/071400935350.030.07175450.0332/1/07

    3/1/071407735410.030.06176170.0323/1/07

    4/1/071418435650.020.05177490.0284/1/07

    5/1/071425035990.020.06178490.0305/1/07

    6/1/071433635380.020.05178740.0286/1/07

    7/1/071447034720.030.04179420.0327/1/07

    8/1/071456034740.030.02180340.0298/1/07

    9/1/071456235030.030.02180650.0259/1/07

    10/1/071449035120.02-0.01180020.01310/1/07

    11/1/071442434870.01-0.03179120.00311/1/07

    12/1/071433235300.02-0.02178620.01012/1/07

    1/1/081429136090.020.01179000.0171/1/08

    2/1/081429336760.020.04179700.0242/1/08

    3/1/081428737780.010.07180650.0253/1/08

    4/1/081439937610.020.06181600.0234/1/08

    5/1/081455237850.020.05183370.0275/1/08

    6/1/081473037690.030.07184990.0356/1/08

    7/1/081484437610.030.08186050.0377/1/08

    8/1/081480537500.020.08185560.0298/1/08

    9/1/081476837950.010.08185620.0289/1/08

    10/1/081477938740.020.10186520.03610/1/08

    11/1/081477339400.020.13187130.04511/1/08

    12/1/081486040290.040.14188890.05712/1/08

    1/1/091476540700.030.13188350.0521/1/09

    2/1/091474141170.030.12188580.0492/1/09

    Tarm D gc (Yoy)

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000


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