1 Towardsa Global Atm Conceptthe European Contribution Victor Aguado Eurocontrol

Towards a Global Air Traffic Management Concept

The persistent need for cost-efficiency

"Airlines have been a serial killer of capital. We have done a good job for consumers of selling our product at less than cost. In our view the

industry is a giant charity"

John Owen, Finance Director of Jet Blue

"Is there light at the end of the tunnel ? No. None of us make money at those energy prices"

Gary Kelly, Chief Executive of SouthWest

The persistent need for cost-efficiency

IATA:$5.5 billion forecast airline industry losses

for 2005

High price of fuel

System-wide break-even load factors rise

$40 billion losses for the period 2001-2005

Source: IATA

Airline operating costs

Mainstream Carrier

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%

2003

2004

Low-Cost Carrier

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%

2003

2004

Low-Cost Carriers market share in Europe

9% flight growth in ’04

10.4% market share

Slower market share growth than 2003

0 %

2 %

4 %

6 %

8 %

10 %

12 %

Jan-91

Jan-92

Jan-93

Jan-94

Jan-95

Jan-96

Jan-97

Jan-98

Jan-99

Jan-00

Jan-01

Jan-02

Jan-03

Jan-04

Jan-05

low

-cos

t sh

are

of I

FR

mov

emen

ts in

ES

RA

© EUROCONTROL 2005. Earlier years are estimated from data for a smaller geographical region.

The Air Transport revenue chain

Return on capital invested

Aircraft Manufacturers

Aircraft Leasing

CompaniesAirlines

Aircraft HandlingServices

Catering Airport

Aircraft Leasing

CompaniesANSPs

16% 15%

6%14% 13% 10%

>30%

AircraftManufacturers

2 suppliers:100% of market

AircraftLeasing

Companies

2 suppliers:45% of market

Airlines

> 1500 airlines,over capacity,

strongcompetition

AirportHandlingServices

Mostlymonopolies at

state-runairports, less

than 3 suppliersprivately owned

airports

Catering

2 suppliers:40% of market,

7 suppliersservice 70%

Airports

monopoly

GlogalDistribution

Systems

4 suppliersworldwide,

some dominate specific regions

ANSPs

Source: McKinsey, TEATS Ltd

2.8 to 10%

What is needed at Global level

Safety

Interoperability

Transparency

Predictability

Efficiency

Growth

=> Performance

Towards a Global Air Traffic Management Concept

A long history of common concept work

1987: EUROCONTROL ATS Concept Group report

1989: ICAO/EUR FEATS concept, GARTEUR concept paper

1990: PHARE & CATMAC (BFS) concepts

1991: FEATS input to FANS work endorsed by ICAO ANC/10

1993: EATMS initial operational concept

1995: User Requirements Document

1997: OCD V1

1997: ATM 2000+ Strategy development launched

1999: OCD V1.1

1999: ICAO ATMCP work starts

2000: ATM 2000+ Strategy approved

2003: ATM 2000+ Strategy revised

2003: ICAO ANC/11 endorses OCD

2004: EUROCONTROL OCD V2

2004: Industry road map (presented by IATA)

EC: several concept studies since 1991 (AEGIS, ATLAS, TORCH, Gate-2-Gate, C-ATM) have been exploited

2005: EURO OCD/ConOps integrated with C-ATM

European Contribution

EUROOCD

ICAOOCD

ATM2000+

European ATMMaster Plan

IATA

Air Traffic Management performance

European Air Traffic Management delivers solid performance

CapacitySafety

Total Costs vs Traffic Unit Costs

0,5

0,6

0,7

0,8

0,9

1,0

1,1

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

es

t

20

05

es

t

Eu

ro 2

00

2/

km

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

Total Costs (1990= index 100) Traff ic (1990=index 100)

All States in CRCO sytem Data source : EUROCONTROL

Traffic / Delays

Delays have reached an all-time low: En-Route Flow Management delay: 1.2 min/flight Summer 2004

Air Traffic Management performance

European Air Traffic Management delivers solid performance

CapacitySafety

Total Costs vs Traffic Unit Costs

0,5

0,6

0,7

0,8

0,9

1,0

1,1

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

es

t

20

05

es

t

Eu

ro 2

00

2/

km

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

Total Costs (1990= index 100) Traff ic (1990=index 100)

All States in CRCO sytem Data source : EUROCONTROL

Safety

A coherent way forward must be developed, addressing:

A Europe-wide ATM safety information flow

A Europe-wide review system

Runway Incursion Prevention Plan

Capacity

Resolute action is needed to meet the rapidly growing demand.

Ireland

N o r w a y S w e d e n

United Kingdom

France

Spain Italy

Malta

Canary Is.

P o r t u g a l Turkey

Cyprus

Greece A l b FYROM

Y u g o s l a v

i a Bosnia Hungary

S

v e n i Croatia

Bulgaria

Romania Black Sea

F i n l a n d

D e n m a r k

Germany Poland Ukraine

Lithuania Latvia

Netherlands

Estonia

Belguim

Switzerland Austria M o l d o

v a Slovak Re p. Czech Rep.

Armenia

LOWER AIRSPACE

LIS

LJU BRE

ROM

LON

BOR

REI

PAR GEN

ZUR

KAR

MAS

BER

MUN

MIL

PAD

VIE BUD

PRA BRA

ZAG

MAL

MOL

BEL

BRI

TIR SKO SOF VAR

BUC

MAK

WAR UKR

VIL

RIG

TAL

TAM

ROV

BOD SUN

TRO

STA

OSL STO

SCO

SHA

MAD

COP

BAR

BAR

PAL MAR

IST

ANK

YEK

ATH MAL

NIC

CAN

SAR

BER

SEV

BRE

LON

PAR

BOR

MAN DUB

AMS

DUS BRU FRA

BRE

MUN REI

MAR

GEN

ZUR

PAD MIL

Lower Air space

BER

0%

6 – 10% 1 – 5%

11 – 20%

2005 capacity increase planned by ANSPs

IST

The Airports Challenge

0

5

10

15

20

25

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

IFR

Flig

hts

Per

Yea

r (M

illio

n)

Actual

Scenario A

Scenario B

Scenario C

Scenario D

2.5 growth factor

if sufficientairport capacity

2.0 growth factor with max

achievable airport capacity

If demand keeps growing at 4.3% p.a. (scenario A), airports will severely constrain traffic growth in 2025

3.7 million unaccommodated flights/yr will cause pressure to change traffic pattern

European Air Traffic Management Master Plan

A quantum jump in ATM performance

short-term: DMEAN & management of bottlenecksmedium-term: Sector productivity / Controller toolslong-term: SESAME

2005 2010 2015 2020

2005 2010 2015 2020

Foundation

2007

DeploymentIndustrialisation

DeploymentApplied R&D Industrialisation

SES Deployment

2012

Applied R&D Industrialisation

2012

Deployment

SES Deployment


2012

Deployment

SES Deployment


2012


2012


SES Deployment20172017

DeploymentInnovative R&D Applied R&D Industrialisation DeploymentInnovative R&D Applied R&D Industrialisation

2017

Collaborative – High Performance ATM

DeploymentInnovative R&D Applied R&D Industrialisation

2005 2010 2015 2020

2005 2010 2015 2020

2005 2010 2015 2020

2005 2010 2015 2020

Foundation

2007


Foundation

2007



SES Deployment

2012


2012

Deployment

SES Deployment


2012

Deployment

SES Deployment


2012


2012


SES Deployment


SES Deployment

2012


2012

Deployment

SES Deployment


2012

Deployment

SES Deployment


2012


2012


SES Deployment20172017


2017



20172017


2017



Air transport delays

Improved predictability of air transport would generate high added-value

Compressing half of flight schedules by 5 minutes is worth some €1,000M p.a.

0

3

5

8

10

13

15

18

20

23

Standarddeviation ofdeparturetimes (off-

block)

Taxi out +holding

Flight times(en-route +

terminalholding)

Taxi in +holding

Standarddeviation ofarrival times(on-block)

Sta

ndar

d de

viat

ion

in m

inut

es

Variations in the individual phases of the flightSchedule

buffer

Schedule

Early arrival

OUT OFF ON IN

Buffer

Late arrival

AirborneTaxi Out Taxi In

Behind schedule

Ahead of schedule

Delay Schedule

ON Time

Buffer

Distribution of arrival time

and on-time performance

Predictability

Cost-effectiveness

Raising performance to 3rd best levels:Significant improvements(10%= €700 M p.a.)

Complexity is not an obstacle to high productivity (Maastricht, CH, NL, UK)

0.10 0.12

0.23 0.27 0.29 0.30 0.30

0.35 0.38

0.43 0.45 0.47 0.51 0.53 0.55 0.55

0.60 0.62 0.62 0.66 0.69 0.71 0.71 0.72 0.74 0.77 0.78

0.82 0.83 0.85 0.90

1.00 1.05

1.59

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

MU

AC

Sky

guid

e

LVN

L

NA

TS

DF

S

NA

VIA

IR

DC

AC

Cyp

rus

Aus

tro

Con

trol

AN

S C

R

DN

A

EA

NS

EN

AV

IAA

NA

V P

ortu

gal (

FIR

Lis

boa)

AN

S S

wed

en

Hun

garo

Con

trol

Bel

goco

ntro

l

Avi

nor

Aen

a

DH

MI

Fin

land

CA

A

HC

AA

NA

TA

Alb

ania

Cro

atia

Con

trol

LGS

MA

TS

LPS

Slo

veni

a C

AA

AT

SA

Bul

garia

RO

MA

TS

A

Oro

Nav

igac

ija

FY

RO

M C

AA

UkS

AT

SE

Mol

dAT

SA

Com

posi

te fl

ight

-hou

rs p

er A

TC

O-h

our

European system average (0.63)

1.92.3

2.82.92.9

3.43.53.53.53.53.73.83.94.04.14.14.44.5

4.84.85.0

5.85.95.9

6.56.76.9

7.27.3

8.58.68.6

11.7

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

DH

MI

Mol

dAT

SA

FY

RO

M C

AA

LGS

MA

TS

Oro

Nav

igac

ija

LVN

L

UkS

AT

SE

NA

TA

Alb

ania

LPS

AN

S C

R

AT

SA

Bul

garia

EA

NS

NA

TS

Hun

garo

Con

trol

DN

A

IAA

EN

AV

DF

S

RO

MA

TS

A

Sky

guid

e

MU

AC

*

NA

VIA

IR

Aus

tro

Con

trol

Cro

atia

Con

trol

Fin

land

CA

A

NA

V P

ortu

gal (

FIR

Lis

boa)

DC

AC

Cyp

rus

Bel

goco

ntro

l

AN

S S

wed

en

Avi

nor

Slo

veni

a C

AA

HC

AA

Aen

a

European system average (3.8)

18.8

Support costs: 23%

Productivity: +56%

Flight efficiency

Actual routes

Flight-efficiency, a major contributor to ATM performance

€1,000M - €1,500M p.a.

Airspace design and strategic use is the most critical element Further work is needed, involving civil and military concerned parties

Filed route (F)

Actual route (A)

Shortest route

(S)

Great Circle (G)

ATC routing

Route selection

En-route design

476 NM476 NM

480 NM480 NM

475 NM475 NM

448 NM448 NM

-1.0 -1.0 %%

1.0 %1.0 %

Direct route (D)

TMA interface

+ 28 NMEr: 6.2%

457 NM457 NM

4.2 %4.2 %

2.0 %2.0 %

Stra

teg

ic

Ta

ctic

al

Fragmentation

Causes of fragmentation costs

Fragmented planning

Piecemeal procurement

Sub-optimal maintenance/development

Communications/navigation duplication

Over-provision of secondary radar

Lack of ACC economies of scale

Constrained route & sector design

Lack of ATM system coordination

Functional Blocks of Airspace

Common Air Navigation Charging Scheme

Main features of proposed Implementing Rules

Consistency with EUROCONTROL system

Distinction between En-route and Terminal charges

Definition of « charging volumes of airspace » in consistency with ATC operations

Incentives for air navigation service providers and airspace users

NETWORK OPTIMISATION

Cooperative Network Design, Pan-European Functions

National

Pan-European

RegulationService

Provision

Air Traffic Management Success Factors

Regulation Service Provision Regulation Service Provision

RegulationService

ProvisionRegulation

ServiceProvision

RegulationService

Provision

Functional Blocks

GLOBAL PLANNING - GLOBAL CONCEPT Global

"The international aviation system can only become viable if airlines, service providers and regulators jointly address and resolve the fundamental issues.“ (source AEA)

Conclusion

1 Towardsa Global Atm Conceptthe European Contribution Victor Aguado Eurocontrol

Technology

Transcript of 1 Towardsa Global Atm Conceptthe European Contribution Victor Aguado Eurocontrol