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Tom SchullerCentre for Educational Research and Innovation

OECDJerzy Wiśniewski

CERI Governing Board

Presented on the Conference „Knowledge and Innovation in the Development of Economy: Driving Forces and Barriers”

Kraków, 11 January 2007

OECD/CERI work on Future Perspectives

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Tom Schuller is Head of the Centre for Educational Research and Innovation (CERI), OECD, Paris.

Formerly Dean of the Faculty of Continuing Education and Professor of Lifelong Learning at Birkbeck, University of London from 1999 to 2003, he was also co-director of the Centre for Research on the Wider Benefits of Learning. He worked previously at the Universities of Edinburgh, Glasgow and Warwick, at the Institute for Community Studies and for four years at OECD in the 1970s. Recent publications include The Benefits of Learning: The Impact of Education on Health, Family Life and Social Capital (with John Preston et al, RoutledgeFalmer 2004), and Social Capital: Critical Perspectives (edited with Stephen Baron and John Field, OUP 2000).

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EconomicsDepartment

StatisticsDirectorate

DevelopmentCo-operationDirectorate

TradeDirectorate

Directorate For Financial

Fiscal andEnterprise Affairs

Directorate for ScienceTechnology

and Industry

Directorate for Education

Directorate forEmploymentLabour and

Social Affairs

Directorate for Food Agriculture

and Fisheries

Directorate for Public Management

and Territorial Development

COMMITTEES

SECRETARIAT

COUNCIL

Centre for

EducationalResearch

and Innovation(CERI)

EnvironmentDirectorate

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Centre forEducation

Research andInnovation

IMHE/PEB

Education andTraining Policy

Division

Indicators andAnalysisDivision

Directoratefor

Education

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CERI: main activities

Carrying out studies of key educational issues, using internal staff and outside experts.

Developing tools, indicators and frameworks for international analyses.

Promoting research and policy debate

Lengthening the time horizon of policy research thinking

25 staff, € 4.4 million

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Focus on the Future• Schooling for Tomorrow• University Futures

• New Millenium Learners

• Globalisation, Linguistic Competencies and Cultural Diversity

• ICT and E-learning/Open Educational Resources• What Works: Adults with Low Basic Skills

Learners and Learning

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Innovation in System Change• Reviews of Educational Innovation• Decision-making and Market Developments in Complex Lifelong

Learning Systems

• Social Outcomes of Learning• Time and Learning: Efficiency, Opportunity and Effectiveness

• The Education Horizon

• Regional Seminars

Investments and Outcomes

Horizontal Activities

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Why the Need for Futures Thinking in Education?

Education decision-making increasingly complex – the need for new approaches

Decision-making predominantly short-term despite education and learning being fundamental to long-term futures

But prediction/forecasting is notoriously inaccurate

TOGETHER underline need to compile existing tools and develop new ones for long-term thinking in policy and practice

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The OECD schooling scenarios

1. ATTEMPTING TO MAINTAIN THE STATUS QUO

““BureaucraticBureaucratic School Systems Continue“ Scenario

2. DIVERSE, DYNAMIC SCHOOLS AFTER ROOT-AND-BRANCH REFORM (“Re-schooling”)"Schools as Focused Learning OrganisationsLearning Organisations“

Scenario"Schools as Core Social CentresSocial Centres“ Scenario

3. PURSUIT OF ALTERNATIVES TO SCHOOLS - SYSTEMS DISBAND OR DISINTEGRATE (“De-schooling”)“Radical Extension of the Market ModelMarket Model“ Scenario"Learning Networks Networks and the Network Society"

Scenario“Teacher Exodus and System MeltdownMeltdown” Scenario

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Provisional set of scenarios

International

National

MarketAdministration

Open collaborationInternational research

marketplace

New public management

National interest promotion

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International policy research: functions/types

Generating rankings/tables Benchmarking Developing/clarifying concepts Analysing trends, issues, innovations Identifying and disseminating good

practice Evaluating policy impact Agenda-setting

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CERI R&D reviews:

General conclusions :

Low levels of investment Low capacity Weak research/policy/practice links

Recommendations: Balancing the research portfolio Accumulation: building a knowledge

base Dissemination Capacity-building

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Brokerage

Examples:England: EPPI Centre/NERFUS: What Works ClearinghouseNZ: Iterative Best Evidence SynthesisCanada: Centre for Knowledge

Mobilisation

Issues/functions:Dissemination: publications, internet,

presentationsPromoting interactivityLegitimating rigour/qualityDeveloping cooperation/trust

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The challenges

Capacity-building, inside and outside research community

Combining different forms of evidence

Developing accountabilities : bureaucratic, market, professional

Defining outcomes and their measurement

A new enlightenment paradigm?

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Conclusions the knowledge base for knowledge-based

economies is thin – irony growing interest in educational research

capacity as a policy but also a research issue key parameters within which debate can take

place on the adequacy of this capacity This should involve a closer understanding of

the way research systems work, and the extent to which the articulated or implicit goals of the system are achieved

This is quite a challenge, not just in itself but it is difficult for members of the educational research community to engage in this with a reasonable degree of objectivity.

But that should be no reason for not trying.