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• Three EU challenges and the resulting three targets• The current energy (and economy) revolution• World (?) GHG reduction policy• May 2013 EU council conclusions• Personal conclusions

"...putting more abundant energy at a cheaper price at the disposal of the European economies…".The Messina declaration, 1955

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Energy Roadmap for Europe: a possible Position Statement by the EPS Energy Group ?

G.AlimontiINFN & Universita’ degli Studi, Milano

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COMMUNICATION FROM THE COMMISSION TO THE EUROPEAN COUNCIL AND THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT

AN ENERGY POLICY FOR EUROPE

SustainabilityEnergy accounts for 80% of all greenhouse gas (GHG) emission in the EU; it is at the root of climate change and most air pollution. The EU is committed to addressing this by reducing EU and worldwide greenhouse gas emissions at a global level to a level that would limit the global temperature increase to 2°C compared to pre-industrial levels.Security of supplyEurope is becoming increasingly dependent on imported hydrocarbons. With "business as usual" the EU's energy import dependence will jump from 50% of total EU energy consumption today to 65% in 2030. Reliance on imports of gas is expected to increase from 57% to 84% by 2030, of oil from 82% to 93%.CompetitivenessThe EU is becoming increasingly exposed to the effects of price volatility and price rises on international energy markets and the consequences of the progressive concentration of hydrocarbons reserves in few hands. The potential effects are significant: if, for example, the oil price rose to 100 $/barrel in 2030, the EU-27 energy total import bill would increase by around € 170 billion, an annual increase of €350 for every EU citizen. Brussels, 10.1.2007

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The “20-20-20” package(directive 2009/28/CE)

• At least 20% GHG emission reduction by 2020 compared to 1990

• A 20 % savings in EU energy consumption compared to 2020 BAU projections

• A 20% share of renewable energy sources (RES) measured in gross final energy consumption by 2020 (minimum of 10% in vehicle energy consumption)

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The Energy revolution (WEO 2012)

A new global energy landscape is emerging• The global energy map is changing, with potentially far-reaching consequences for

energy markets and trade. It is being redrawn by the resurgence in oil and gas production in the United States

The tide turns for US energy flows• Energy developments in the United States are profound and their effect will be felt

well beyond North America and the energy sector. The recent rebound in US oil and gas production, driven by upstream technologies that are unlocking light tight oil and shale gas resources, is spurring economic activity – with less expensive gas and electricity prices giving industry a competitive edge – and steadily changing the role of North America in global energy trade. By around 2020, the United States is projected to become the largest global oil producer (overtaking Saudi Arabia until the mid-2020s) and starts to see the impact of new fuel-efficiency measures in transport. The result is a continued fall in US oil imports, to the extent that North America becomes a net oil exporter around 2030.

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Source: WEO 2012, IEA

Source: KWES 2013, IEA

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“Southeast Asia is, along with China and India, shifting the centre of gravity of the global energy system to Asia,” IEA Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven said at the launch of a World Energy Outlook Special Report, Southeast Asia Energy Outlook. 2 October 2013

Electricity generation increases by more than the current power output of India; coal emerges as the fuel of choice, accounting for 58% of the growth.

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8Monthly Oil Market Report, OPEC, Oct. 2013

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Source: BP Energy Outlook, 2012

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Source: redrawing the energy-climate the map IEA, June 2013

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World (?) GHG reduction policy:the Kyoto protocol

• The Kyoto Protocol is an international treaty signed in the Japanese city in 1997: to be valid, it was required to be signed by countries emitting not less than 55% of global emissions, condition reached in 2005 after the ratification by Russia.

• The Treaty foresees industrialized countries to reduce emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases by 5.2% compared to 1990 levels by 2012.

• For EU the expected reduction is 8%

CO2 emissions [Gt]. Source JRC

G.AlimontiSource: WEO 2011, IEA

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Source: redrawing the energy-climate the map IEA, June 2013

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Source: WEO 2011, IEA

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Second commitment for Kyoto protocol

• The final text of Doha (9 December 2012) states that the signatories recognize the Kyoto Protocol as the only legal instrument required to combat global warming; major polluting countries will remain outside the treaty.

Source: redrawing the energy-climate the map, IEA June 2013

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EUROPEAN COUNCIL, 22 May 2013CONCLUSIONS

In the current economic context we must mobilize all our policies in support of competitiveness, jobs and growth.The supply of affordable and sustainable energy to our economies is crucial in that respect. This is why the European Council agreed today on a series of guidelines in four fields which together should allow the EU to foster its competitiveness and respond to the challenge of high prices and cost: urgent completion of a fully functioning and interconnected internal energy market, facilitation of the required investment in energy, diversification of Europe's supplies and enhanced energy efficiency.

I. ENERGY1. The EU's energy policy must ensure security of supply for households and companies at affordable and competitive prices and costs, in a safe and sustainable manner. This is particularly important for Europe's competitiveness in the light of increasing energy demand from major economies and high energy prices and costs.

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“sustainable” shifts from GHG emissions to a more “economical” meaning

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Conclusions (personal)

• RES and energy efficiency policies may help in reaching security of supply and competitiveness EU targets; both may help also in GHG reduction. They make sense even on a solitary EU roadmap.

“In 2010 energy efficiency was the largest resource✚”Maria van der Hoeven, IEA Executive Director, 16 October 2013

• New energy technologies need a strong R&D&I support; much less expensive and potentially more effective than incentive policies

• EU is on a solitary GHG reduction roadmap: to have a reduction effect on global emissions, further GHG targets should be referred to legally binding international agreements

• An EU solitary GHG reduction roadmap, could bring only to more expensive energy and potential industrial delocalization.

G.Alimonti✚in Australia, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Sweden, the United Kingdom and the United States.

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Premature annual deaths from household air pollution and selected diseases in the New Policies Scenario, 2008 and 2030Note: 2008 is the latest available data in WHO database.

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Kyoto (≤20-20) e l’Italia

RIE: Ricerche Industriali ed Energetiche EEA: European Environmental Agency

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Intanto, nel nostro Paese le emissioni di CO2 sono complessivamente in diminuzione. Nel terzo trimestre del 2012 sono state immesse in atmosfera 5,6 milioni di tonnellate di CO2 in meno rispetto allo stesso trimestre del 2011 (-6,4%).Secondo le proiezioni messe a punto dal Rie – nell’ipotesi che le emissioni da combustione di fonti fossili mantengano lo stesso andamento registrato finora – a fine anno dovrebbero attestarsi a 472,9 milioni di tonnellate. Ovvero, in calo dell’8,4% rispetto ai valori del 1990 e per la prima volta al di sotto anche del target fissato nella tabella di marcia del Protocollo di Kyoto

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1990 2005 2011

world 20988 27501 31342

china 2244 5403 7954

US 4868 5771 5287

EU-27 4052 3970 3542

Italy 397 461 393

India 582 1164 1745

CO2 emissions, Mt, from fuel combustion only, source IEA

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Text of the Messina Declaration

The Messina Declaration was drafted on 3 June 1955 and was one of the more influential documents concerned with the development of the European Union. It confirmed the intention that the European Community should evolve into more than simply an economic and customs community.Two of the more important aspects were the development of the European economic policy and the European social policy and the idea of the creation of a community energy policy.The Treaty establishing the European Economic Community and the Treaty establishing the European Atomic Energy Community, signed in 1957, arose form the discussions at Messina. The discussions on the creation of a common European Energy Policy also originate from the Messina Declaration.Another aspect of the Declaration was that the United Kingdom would be invited to become involved in the discussions.