1 The role of Economics in European Competition Enforcement and Policy Damien Neven, Chief Economist...
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Transcript of 1 The role of Economics in European Competition Enforcement and Policy Damien Neven, Chief Economist...
1
The role of Economics in European Competition Enforcement and Policy
Damien Neven, Chief Economist*
DG COMP, European Commission
5th International Competition workshopSeoul, September 3, 2008
*The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of DG COMP or the European Commission
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Introduction
Still 15 years ago, explicit economic analysis in enforcement decisions was quite rudimentary
Since then, there has been a significant shift towards economic analysis
By now, the annual turnover of economic consultancies makes up 15% of the fees earned in antitrust cases
Objective of enforcement has become more focused
What are the effects on consumers ?
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Outline1. Risk of being captured by an accountable bunch of
pseudo-scientists ?2. Economics helps in evaluating effects and designing
structured rules – law and economics of enforcement3. Economics help in understanding market dynamics
and building evidence 4. Ideology is more of a concern for the former5. The question with the latter is not how much
economics but how to make the best us of it in actual cases
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Law and economics
Per se vs structured rules of reasons Business experience and empirical evidence
identify empirical regularities which support presumptions and help designing structured rules of reasons
For instance, systematic evidence on resale price maintenance support the Supreme Court’s reversal of per se illegality
Non horizontal merger guidelines
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"The theory of economics does not furnish a body of settled conclusions immediately applicable to policy. It is a method, rather than a doctrine. An apparatus of the mind, a technique of thinking, which helps its possessors to draw correct conclusions." Sir John (not Vickers - Keynes)
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Investigating effects
1. Spell out a logically consistent theory of consumer harm
2. Validate that theory empirically– Check the realism of the underlying
assumptions(ex-ante validation)
– Check whether observed market outcomes are consistent with the predictions of the theory (ex-post validation)
3. Identify alternative pro-competitive motivations for the practice (validate ex-ante and ex-post)
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Investigating effects (ii)
Use of established theory, extensions, ad hoc developments
Develop testable hypothesis Evidence should be (i) scientifically valid,
(ii) open to scrutiny (iii) directly relevant (tied to the facts)
Daubert test of scientific evidence : can the theory be tested, peer review, rate of error, wide acceptance
No perfect test – reference to simplifying assumptions and data limitations should not be sufficient to dismiss evidence
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Investigating effects (iii)
What if several pieces of evidence meet all criteria and provide conflicting conclusions ? – Not appropriate to ignore results as cancelling each
other – Evidence is consistent with several hypothesis – Valuable insights despite apparent contradictions
Above all, need for a convincing explanation Effects based analysis does not have to be
overly dense in technical economic reasoning Consistent set of facts and different pieces of
evidence
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Conclusion The EU is in a better position to take
advantage of economic analysis than the US And abuse of it… Institutional response
– Role of the CET– Interaction with economic consultants
More R&D – identify regularities Guidelines