1 The NATO Science & Technology Enterprise for the 21 st Century IST-092 Symposium Military...

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The NATO Science & Technology Enterprise for the 21st Century

IST-092 Symposium Military Communications and Networks

28 September 2010

Military Communications and Information Systems Technology (MCIS) Week

Robert Walker, PhD, FCAEChairman, NATO R&T Board

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Outline

Evolving Environment

NATO S&T Enterprise

RTB R&T Priorities

Conclusions

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Evolving Environment

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Global Perspective The World View in the 21st Century

Yet the world is increasingly fractured …– Ideology– Culture– Values– Wealth

The world is increasingly interdependent … – Global Warming– Critical Infrastructure– Population Health– Financial Markets

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Security: a 21st Century Perspective?

Sovereignty

Health

Critical Infrastructure

Environment

Economy

Ideology

Institutions

Inter-State Conflict

Terrorism

Radicalization

Crime

Natural Disasters

Accidents

ThreatsNational/ Societal

Attributes

Threat Multipliers

Climate Change

Energy Security

Strategic Resource Scarcity

Financial Crisis

Globalization of S&T

InterdependentEffects

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Science and Technology:Opportunities and Threats

• Radicalization

• Identity Theft

• Bio-Terrorism

• Environmental Degradation

• “Power to the Fringe/One”

Information Technology

Biotechnology

Nanotechnology

S&T Enabled

Disruptions• Connected Societies

• E-Commerce

• Improved Health Outcomes

• Renewal Energy

• Clean Technologies

The Good The Bad

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Evolving Environment• Evolving Environment – Drivers

– The blurring of the boundaries between defence and security. The need for an integrated response to the threats faced both nationally and as part of the NATO alliance is acknowledged.

– The globalisation of Science and Technology. The network of global knowledge production has to be expanded beyond the traditional sources.

– Increasing complexity. The challenges that the Nations and NATO face require interdisciplinary approaches

– Speed matters. Changes are occurring at an unprecedented speed. This demands an increasing level of responsiveness and agility in the cycle of knowledge and technology generation.

– Resources are constrained. This reality presents both opportunities and challenges for S&T in the NATO framework.

Innovation will be a key element of success for the Nations and NATO. Hence the fundamental importance of Science and Technology which, appropriately harnessed, is a principal engine for innovation.

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NATO’s Science and Technology Enterprise

for the 21st Century...

... a unifying framework for Science and Technology that brings NATO-wide coherence to fundamental issues of motivation, mission, means and measurement of value.

The NATO S&T Enterprise (NSTE) is a core recommendation of the NATO R&T Coordination Study, to

be presented to NATO Leadership in the fall of 2010

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Science and Technology is Important

• S&T is a strategic enabler of the knowledge and technology advantage for the defence and security posture of NATO, the Nations and Partners.

• S&T is an engine of innovation, decreases the probability of exposure to technology shock and provides the art of the possible in future military capabilities to address a broadening conflict space from traditional military and irregular warfare into the complexities inherent in national and public security.

• S&T is a force multiplier by facilitating knowledge exchange and collaboration between the Nations in a NATO context, thereby influencing, enabling and leveraging S&T investments to achieve a higher ambition at a reduced cost while helping to ensure operational success and to save lives.

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NATO Science and Technology Enterprise

• Immutable Core Principles– Terminology

– Framework Elements

• Motivation

• Mission

• Means

• Measurement of Value

• Primary Opportunities for Improvement– Additional Expression of

Means

• A conceptual framework, providing a working definition of NATO Science and Technology

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NSTE Mission

NATO S&T positions the Nations’ and NATO’s S&T investments to be a strategic enabler of the knowledge and technology advantage for the defence and security posture of the Nations, NATO and partners, by:• Conducting collaborative NATO S&T that augments and

leverages the Nations’ and partners’ S&T capabilities and programmes in support of NATO’s objectives.

• Contributing to NATO’s ability to enable and influence Nations’ and partners’ defence and security capability and equipment development and threat mitigation.

• Informing and enabling the conception, validation, demonstration and development of NATO-owned and multi-national capabilities.

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NSTE Measurement of Value

• The NSTE augments the Nations’ S&T investments.– The NSTE should enable the Nations and partners to leverage their collective S&T

programs and investments. It should help develop the Nations’ S&T capabilities in areas critical to the nations and NATO, including their S&T people, their competencies, tools, ideas and networks.

• The NSTE helps NATO assist Nations’ capability-building efforts.– The NSTE should help build coherence and synergy among the nations’ S&T

investments with the Nations’ and with NATO needs. It should couple the expertise, knowledge, technology and advice resident in the national S&T communities and programmes to NATO organizations to help conceive, build and sustain defence and security capabilities, to identify and mitigate emerging threats, to position strategic and operational thinking for the future and to meet partnership and consultation objectives.

• The NSTE helps NATO develop NATO-owned capabilities.– The NSTE should help with the conception, development, acquisition and through-life

ownership of specific capabilities owned by NATO, through the pull-through of national S&T results.

The manner in which the Nations measure the value of their national S&T investments varies greatly across the NATO and partner nations. Therefore, each Nation will derive value from the NSTE in a manner that is specific to the individual national context.

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NSTE Means: Roles

Security Dialogue and CooperationSecurity Dialogue and Cooperation

Consultation and Partnerships

Partnership Objectives

Strategic and Operational Decisions


Knowledge, Analysis, and Advice

Requested Studies

Military OperationsMilitary Operations

Capability Development

Military Requirements

Networks ofNational and NATO

S&T Subject Matter Experts

Security Dialogue and CooperationSecurity Dialogue and Cooperation

Consultation and Partnerships

Partnership Objectives



Knowledge, Analysis, and Advice

Requested StudiesRequested Studies












• Bring scientifically derived knowledge and technology to bear on the definition, development, improvement and/or evaluation of defence and security capabilities of the Nations, NATO and partners, from the short term to the long term.

• Contribute to NATO consultation and partnerships objectives through the conduct of cooperative S&T activities between the Alliance and partner Nations, enhancing the security dialogue and cooperation thus building confidence and mitigating threats.

• Provide evidence-based knowledge, analysis and advice to contribute to NATO strategic and operational thinking and decision making.

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NSTE Means: Deliverables

1. Contribute to interoperability solutions and standardization.

2. Assess, mature, demonstrate, position and transition technologies.

3. Anticipate, assess and give advice on the implications of emerging and potentially disruptive technologies.

4. Provide knowledge, operational analysis and advice to support strategic and operational decisions, and to contribute to strategy and policy development.

5. Inform force generation and employment (human factors, systems and policy).

6. Support capability development processes.

7. Contribute to confidence building and threat mitigation to address security needs.

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NSTE Means: Members and Linkages

The NSTE consists of a federation of networks, leveraging webs of expertise developed over many years and consisting of experts from NATO and, predominantly, the Nations with national and NATO customers. The NSTE brings together the following entities:• S&T Providers – RTO, SPSP, MAGs, COMEDS, NC3A,

NIAG, VKI and NURC.• S&T Customers – ACT, MAGs, NSA, NIAG, COMEDS,

ESCD, DI, PDD and NC3A. These are key stakeholders that exploit S&T results within the NATO framework.

... and with strong linkages to external S&T providers and with multiple feedback loops.

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NSTE Means: Enablers

• NATO S&T Collaboration Infrastructure

• NATO suite of legal and policy instruments

• Knowledge brokers

• Executive Support

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NATO Research and Technology Board

Research and Technology Priorities

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Priorities for the RTB (2010 Release):Research and Technology Priorities

NATO Long Term Capability Requirements

RTB R&T Hard Problems

RTB Emerged/Emerging Disruptive Technologies

RTB to Identify ...

... RTO to exercise leadership

RTB to Identify ...



ACT to define, CNAD to assign ...

RTB R&T Priorities

2010 Release: 13 RTHPs

2010 Release:19 E2DTs

2010 Release: RTO leads 7 LTCRs

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RTB Priorities (2010 Release): NATO LTCRs• Enhanced Human Performance

Increasing the performance and endurance of personnel during operations. HFM (Lead), AVT, SET

• Language Translation Providing real-time audio and textual language translation. IST (Lead), HFM

• Improved Modelling and Simulation Realistic computer modeling and simulation to support military operations, training, experimentation, decision making and comprehensive planning. NMSG (Lead)

• Planning and Decision SupportPlanning and decision support to improve feedback to decision-makers. SAS (Lead), HFM, NMSG, IST

• Systems Analysis and Knowledge DevelopmentBuilding a holistic knowledge base of the operational environment and identifying a potential adversary’s strengths, vulnerabilities and potential behavior. SAS (Lead), HFM, IST

• Space Capability PreservationPreserving space as a sanctuary for NATO assets. SCI (Lead), AVT, SET

• Counter Improvised Explosive DevicesCountering IED threat at any point in the life cycle. SET (Lead), SAS, AVT, IST, SCI

IST Lead IST Supporting

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RTB Priorities (2010 Release): RTHPs

1. Minimize fratricide and collateral damage in joint fires 2. Achieve asymmetric advantage by small unit operations3. Reduce the burden on the dismounted soldier4. Enable Command Interoperability5. Prepare and sustain the Force6. Improve air assets survivability7. Defeat the CBRNE terrorist threat8. Protect Critical Information Infrastructure9. Deliver persistent ISR in a Counter Insurgency/ Counter Terrorism context10.Enable a comprehensive approach which minimizes use of force11. Integrate autonomous intelligent systems into the battlespace12.Find “greener” solutions to address environmental pressures13.Mitigate energy scarcity

IST Lead

IST Supporting

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RTB Priorities (2010 Release): RTHPs

3. Reduce the burden on the dismounted soldierSubstantial reduction is needed not only to undertake missions effectively and quickly, but also to address the morale and recruitment impact of carrying heavy loads. HFM Lead, SCI, SET, IST, SAS

4. Enable Command Interoperability Identify the key barriers and propose approaches to augment interoperability in the command of NATO forces, particularly in the conduct of complex missions. IST Lead, HFM, NMSG, SAS, SCI, SET

8. Protect Critical Information InfrastructureEnhance the Nations’ abilities to reduce the vulnerability and enhance resilience of information infrastructure, including cyber security, to both present and forecast future threats. IST Lead, SCI, SET

9. Deliver persistent ISR in a Counter Insurgency / Counter Terrorism contextImprove understanding of the factors shaping effective, integrated ISR for maintaining Situational and Domain Awareness in complex COIN/CT operations. SCI Lead, IST, SET, SAS

11. Integrate autonomous intelligent systems into the battle spaceIntegration in the battlefield of systems with increased intelligent autonomy including unmanned systems. SCI Lead, AVT, HFM, IST, NMSG, SAS, SET

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RTB Priorities (2010 Release): E2DTs

1. Quantum Capabilities 2. Autonomous Intelligent

Technologies3. Ubiquitous Wireless Networking

Technologies4. Sensing Technologies (Hyper-

Spectral, Tera-Hertz)5. Low Cost Night Vision (Solid

State Silicon Technology at Room Temperature)

6. Directed Energy Technologies7. Micro-Satellites8. Virtual and Augmented Reality

and Cognitive Interfaces9. Technologies for Non-

Conventional Weapons

10. Smart Materials 11. Nano-robotics (Molecular-Based

Nanotechnology)12. High-Temperature Super

Conduction13. Power Sources and Storage14. Biology-Based Solutions

(Biometrics, Biomimetics, Bio-Signatures)

15. Medical Advances from Biological Sciences

16. Internet-Enabled Social Networking17. Hypersonic Vehicles and Propulsion18. Miniaturization Enabled Electronic

Technologies19. Stealth/Counter Stealth

Technologies

IST Lead IST Supporting

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1. Quantum Capabilities Includes basic quantum science as well as applied technology such as cryptography and computing). Emerging, highly disruptive, both positive and negative effects. IST Lead, SET

3. Ubiquitous Wireless Networking TechnologiesRapidly evolving commercial/industrial community with dual use potential including internet exploitation. Ad hoc Mobile element is the important part. Emerging – technology may be ready but we cannot yet take advantage of it. Positive and negative effects (more so on the negative). IST Lead, SET

7. Micro-Satellites Universal access to space enabled by technologies that allow for inexpensive imaging satellites capable of 1-2 m resolution (includes both low cost low and high earth orbit launches). Spacecraft of a few centimetres in size and a few hundred grams in mass are on the horizon allowing for functional “clusters or swarms” as simple sensors, networks or persistent surveillance capabilities. Emerging – long term – next level of situational awareness. Requires Launch Capability - impacts whether it is positive or negative. Inexpensive and quick launch capability would make this disruptive. Probably more positive than negative depending on the capability. SCI Lead, AVT/IST/SET

Continued ...

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8. Virtual and Augmented Reality and Cognitive Interfaces Virtual Reality: The use of simulation, serious gaming and virtual reality in training systems could reduce costs and provide more ‘realistic’ training. Virtual reality provides possible venues for Intelligence exploitation. Augmented Reality: Increasingly AR is being considered to enhance training and operations. Combining the real out-of-the-window with digitized overlay can provide additional immersion in the training, planning and support to operations. Cognitive Interfaces / Neuro Ergonomics / Neuro Interfaces: Use of cognitive neural science for human systems interface design training, leader development. VR: Emerged. AR: Emerging. Positive and negative consequences. HFM Lead, NMSG, IST

11.Nano-robotics (Molecular-Based Nanotechnology)Development of molecular-based nano-elements will enhance ISR capabilities. SET, SCI, IST

14.Biology-Based Solutions (Biometrics, Bio-mimetics, Bio-Signatures)Technologies that will match sensors with an ability to identify a person by unique physical or behavioural characteristics can increase ability for surveillance. Host of possibilities including broad spectrum gene-based therapies. Bio-behaviour-based autonomous identification of dynamical systems men/machines. Relates to security in general as well as defence. Emerged and emerging. Tracking of individuals could make this highly relevant and disruptive. More positive than negative. HFM Lead, IST, SET

Continued ...

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RTB Priorities (2010 Release): E2DTs16. Internet-Enabled Social Networking

Networking based on information content created by people using highly accessible and scalable publishing technologies. The intention is to facilitate communications, influence and interaction with peers and with public audiences, typically via the Internet and mobile communications networks. Emerged. Potentially highly negative, already being used in a negative way. Also has strong positive impact. Command and control implications. A new use of an existing technology. Countermeasures are very important. Could be very positive if we can harness the negative aspects – prediction, pre-empting. HFM Lead, IMC, NMSG, IST, SAS

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Conclusions

• The world is increasingly interdependent, yet increasingly fractured. In this complex & uncertain global environment, S&T can play a key role in enabling the Nations’ Defence and Security posture to respond to rapidly changing circumstances.

• In addition to technology development, Defence & Security S&T must contribute to new concepts, doctrine, human centric issues and socio-economic objectives.

• The NATO S&T Enterprise is a new concept to strengthen the ability of S&T to be a strategic enabler of the knowledge and technology advantage for NATO and the Nations.

• The RTB R&T Priorities provide specific guidance for NATO and Nations’ Science and Technology efforts.

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