1 The Importance of Sustainability Owen Cligg- United Oilseeds Trading Manager 02/02/2012.
Transcript of 1 The Importance of Sustainability Owen Cligg- United Oilseeds Trading Manager 02/02/2012.
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The Importance of Sustainability
Owen Cligg- United Oilseeds Trading
Manager
02/02/2012
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World Consumption of Oils and Fats
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World Vegoil use in million tonnes
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EU-Biofuel Mandates
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303 306 311 312305 305
315
4 7 9 13 14 171.3%
2.3%2.9%
4.2%4.6%
5.6%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2020
Mineralischer Kraftstoff Biokraftstoffe Anteil Biokraftstoffe (Volumen)
EU: Use of biofuels/mineral fuels (mln t)
Projection
Source: EIA, F.O. Licht, ACTI
RED: 10 % Target
Share of biofuels
Total fuel use
Mineral fuel Biofuel Biofuel share (Volume)
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Vegetable oil stocks comparatively low
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• EU Oilseed rape changes up to harvest 2011
0
5
10
15
20
25
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Output
Crushings
End Stocks
Imports
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UK Supply and Demand 2011/12 2011/12
Opening stocks 0.04
Production 2.75
Imports 0.01
Total supply 2.8
ADM 1.20
Cargill Liverpool 0.55
Cargill Hull 0.20
Compound 0.15
Total use 2.1
Exports 0.65
Ending balance 0.05
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UK Oilseed Rape Demand
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Export facilities used by United Oilseeds
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Market Update
UK Rapeseed Area & Yields
Area (Th Ha)
Yield (T ha)
Crop (Mn T)
2012
760
3.5
2.66
2011
705
3.9
2.75
2010
637
3.5
2.23
2009
578
3.4
1.97
2008
603
3.28
1.98
2007
670
3.11
2.09
2006
593
3.19
1.89
2005
510
3.72
1.90
2004
534
3.01
1.61
2003
492
3.59
1.77
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Volatility REMAINS
• SUPPLY CONCERNS• DEMAND
UNCERTAINITIES• EXACERBATED BY
FUND SPECULATION
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Bullish argument
• Low US stocks of corn and soya
• Low stocks of osr• Lower EU osr production• Demand for sustainable
osr for biofuel• South American weather• Crude oil price
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Bearish argument
• High prices ration demand
• High prices encourage extra production
• World may go back into recession
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Any questions?