1 The Changing Face of Washington’s Families Annabel R. Kirschner, Ph.D. Professor Emeritus,...

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The Changing Face of Washington’s Families Annabel R. Kirschner, Ph.D. Professor Emeritus, Washington State University Olympia, WA [email protected] ; [email protected] Leading Wisely, Living Well Retreat for Administrators of Washington Public Hospital Districts May 23, 2011 Richland, WA

Transcript of 1 The Changing Face of Washington’s Families Annabel R. Kirschner, Ph.D. Professor Emeritus,...

Page 1: 1 The Changing Face of Washington’s Families Annabel R. Kirschner, Ph.D. Professor Emeritus, Washington State University Olympia, WA kirschner@wsu.edukirschner@wsu.edu;

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The Changing Face of Washington’s Families

Annabel R. Kirschner, Ph.D.Professor Emeritus, Washington State UniversityOlympia, WA [email protected]; [email protected]

Leading Wisely, Living WellRetreat for Administrators of Washington

Public Hospital Districts May 23, 2011 Richland, WA

Page 2: 1 The Changing Face of Washington’s Families Annabel R. Kirschner, Ph.D. Professor Emeritus, Washington State University Olympia, WA kirschner@wsu.edukirschner@wsu.edu;

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Major Trends in Washington

• Continued Growth

• Increasing Diversity

• Aging

• Increasing Income Inequality

• Education

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Population Growth WA State1980 – 2030

0

2

4

6

8

10

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Mil

lio

ns

Projected population

Source: http://www.ofm.wa.gov/pop/stfc/default.asp

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Net Migration and Natural IncreaseWashington State: 1960-2010

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Source: http://www.ofm.wa.gov/trends/population/fig301.asp

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Increasing Diversity

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% White (not Hispanic/Latino) Washington State: 1980 – 2008

Source: http://crs.wsu.edu/wacts21/EB2047e.pdf and 2010 Census

Page 6: 1 The Changing Face of Washington’s Families Annabel R. Kirschner, Ph.D. Professor Emeritus, Washington State University Olympia, WA kirschner@wsu.edukirschner@wsu.edu;

Increasing Diversity: Immigration

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Percent Foreign Born: Washington 1980 – 2007

* ± 0.2% Data from American Community Survey

*

Source: http://crs.wsu.edu/wacts21/EB2047e.pdf

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Increasing Diversity: Fertility

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Repla

cem

ent

Total

Pop

ulat

ion

Whi

teBla

ck

Amer

ican

Indi

an

Asian/

Pacific

Isla

nder

Hispan

ic0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

2.1 2.1

1.8

2.1

1.8 1.9

2.8

Race/Ethnicity

To

tal

Fer

tili

ty R

ate

Total Fertility Rate by Race/Ethnicity: US 2005

Source: http://crs.wsu.edu/wacts21/EB2047e.pdf

Page 8: 1 The Changing Face of Washington’s Families Annabel R. Kirschner, Ph.D. Professor Emeritus, Washington State University Olympia, WA kirschner@wsu.edukirschner@wsu.edu;

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Increasing Diversity: Age Structure

37.9

29.7 28.6

32.8

26.0

18.9

22.7

0

10

20

30

40

50

White Black NativeAmerican

Asian NHPI* 2 or moreRaces

Hispanic

Ag

e

Non-Hispanic

*Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander

Source: http://crs.wsu.edu/wacts21/EB2047e.pdf

Median Age

Page 9: 1 The Changing Face of Washington’s Families Annabel R. Kirschner, Ph.D. Professor Emeritus, Washington State University Olympia, WA kirschner@wsu.edukirschner@wsu.edu;

Increasing Diversity: Interactions

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Most immigrants are young adults who bring their children and their child bearing capacity with them.

Most child bearing occurs under 35

Child bearing patterns combined with age of immigrants and their slightly higher birth rates, means that the number of children from diverse backgrounds will continue to increase for many years to come.

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Aging: Baby Boom

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AgingGrowth in Population 65+ in WA State 2000 – 2030

11.2 11.4 12.013.8

15.918.0

19.4

0

5

10

15

20

25

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Year

Pe

rce

nt

0

400,000

800,000

1,200,000

1,600,000

2,000,000

Percent 65+ Number 65+

Num

ber

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Characteristics of Older Population• More likely to be female: 65+ = 57.4%, 85+ = 68.8%

• Declining rates of poverty

11

15

9

11

14

7

18

13

-3-5

0

5

10

15

20

Persons Children Adults 65+

Per

cen

t

Percent 1989 Percent 1999 Percent Change '89-'99

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Population Change 1990 and 2000Number in Age Group

Clallam Yakima

Age85 & over

80 to 8475 to 7970 to 7465 to 6960 to 6455 to 5950 to 5445 to 4940 to 4435 to 3930 to 3425 to 2920 to 2415 to 1910 to 14

5 to 9under 5

0 1 2 3 4 5 6

Number in Thousands

1990

2000

Median Age 1990: 38.4 2000: 43.8 Median Age 1990: 31.5 2000: 31.2

Source: http://crs.wsu.edu/wacts21/EB1944E.pdf

Age85 & over

80 to 8475 to 7970 to 7465 to 6960 to 6455 to 5950 to 5445 to 4940 to 4435 to 3930 to 3425 to 2920 to 2415 to 1910 to 14

5 to 9under 5

0 5 10 15 20 25

Number in Thousands

1990

2000

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U.S. GINI Index: 1947-2004

14

0.30

0.32

0.34

0.36

0.38

0.40

0.42

0.44

0.46

0.48

1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002

Year

GIN

I In

dex

Different data series

2008= 4.66

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Gini Index: U.S. Other Post Indus.

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Australia Canada Germany Japan Sweden U.K U.S.0

10

20

30

40

50

35

3230

25 25

37

41

3132

27

38

23

35

45

≈ 1995≈ 2006

https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/2172.html

Gin

i In

dex

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EducationPercent of Washingtonians with a High School Diploma or Equivalent

Persons 25 and Over Persons 18 to 2465

70

75

80

85

90

95

83.8

77.7

87.1

75.3

89.4

82.6

1990 2000 2005-09

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EducationPercent of Washingtonians with a Bachelor’s Degree

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EducationWashington’s Rank Nationally in 2000

• Persons 25 and Over– With a High School Diploma 7th

– With a College Degree 10th

• Persons 18 to 24 – With a High School Diploma 34th

– With a College Degree 25th

– % Currently Enrolled in College 40th

• Measures for population of 25 and over influenced by:– Age specific migration trends– Past performance of educational system– Age structure of population

• Measures for 18- to 24-year-olds are a better indicator of current performance of higher education system

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32.2

22.5

15.8

53.3

27.0

14.3

0

20

40

60

White Black AmericanIndian

Asian NHPI* Hispanic

Per

cent

*

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EducationPercent of Persons 18 to 24 Enrolled in College by

Race/Ethnicity for Washington State: 2000

Not Hispanic

*Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander

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32.2

22.5

15.8

53.3

27.0

14.3

0

20

40

60

White Black AmericanIndian

Asian NHPI* Hispanic

Per

cent

*

20

EducationPercent of Persons 18 to 24 Enrolled in College by

Race/Ethnicity for Washington State: 2000

Not Hispanic

*Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander

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Education% 25 and over with BA Degree Washington 2005-09

Whi

te*

Bla

ck

Nat

ive

Am

Asi

an

Haw

aiia

n /

PI

2 or

mor

e

Latin

o

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

32.1

19.6

12.4

45.1

10.6

24.2

12.2

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Education/Poverty

22.6

10.88.3

4.43.2

0

10

20

30

Less thanHigh School

High SchoolGrad

Some Collegeor AA Degree

Bachelor'sdegree

Grad orProfessional

Degree

Educational Attainment

Pe

rce

nt

Percent of Persons 25 and over Living in Poverty by Educational Attainment, Washington State: 2005

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Implications• Continued population growth in state even with

economic downturn -- aging of baby boom, attractiveness of state, more diversified economy.

• Need for more schools, housing, utilities, roads/public transportation. Careful planning can minimize costs also need to insure that developers pay for costs of infrastructure and development.

• Rapid growth in “young old” (under 85) population likely to be dispersed, increased traffic congestion. Need growing for qualified health care and other workers experienced in working with older adults.

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Implications• All non-white populations younger than White (not

Hispanic) population and growing more rapidly. More non-whites replacing retiring White workers. But still have high rates of poverty, low levels of education for non-white families and children

• All children need quality education through high school, need to contain continually rising costs of college education.

• Increase in income inequality makes it more difficult to provide equal access to education for all income groups.