1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP March 12, 2012 (Not completed-due to tech.issues-data issues) For more information, visit: 2 Outline Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Monsoon Prediction Summary Climatology 3 Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days During the last 90 days, all of southeast Asia and the Australian continent received near to above normal rainfall. However, northern and eastern China experienced dryness as well as southwestern China. 4 Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days The 30-day precipitation anomaly pattern is above normal to much above normal along central to southeastern Australia. Large dryness prevails over central and central eastern China, as well as over western Australia. Whatever little rain that India, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and the eastern horn of Africa receive during this time of year, there was a lack of it leading to much below normal levels for the 30-day period. 5 Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days During the past week, southeastern China and northern Australia received above normal rainfall. Elsewhere the rainfall is at or near normal levels. 6 Rainfall Time Series over 5x5 lat-lon boxes The time series of precip over the various regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier. 7 Atmospheric Circulation 8 NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Weak 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2 9 Summary During the last 90 days, all of southeast Asia and the Australian continent received near to above normal rainfall. However, northern and eastern China experienced dryness as well as southwestern China. The 30-day precipitation anomaly pattern is above normal to much above normal along central to southeastern Australia. Large dryness prevails over central and central eastern China, as well as over western Australia. Whatever little rain that India, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and the eastern horn of Africa receive during this time of year, there was a lack of it leading to much below normal levels for the 30-day period. During the past week, southeastern China and northern Australia received above normal rainfall. Elsewhere the rainfall is at or near normal levels. The NCEP GFS model is forecasting anomalously large rainfall amounts all across northern Australia during the upcoming week, and still more rainfall in the second week, while near-below normal rainfall is forecast elsewhere in the monsoon region. 10 Demise of the Asian Monsoon 11 Onset of the Australian Monsoon 12 Climatology