1

Thanks to:

Biophysics 101, Tue 8-Sep-2009Genomics, Computing, Economics

Azco

RBH

Class outline

(1) Topic priorities for homework since last class(2) Quantitative exercise(3) Discuss communication/presentation tools(4) Topic priorities, homework for next class(5) Project tools discussion

(1) Topic priorities for homework since last class

(a) Your notes

(b) Followup on the "experiment" from Tue:Tversky & Kahneman (1974) Judgement under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Science 185:1124).

(c) Exponential growth Spreadsheet & Python examples

Human subject experimentation7 questions. 5 seconds each

1. Estimate 8 x 7 x 6 x 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1

2. From a group "of 70 engineers and 30 lawyers: Dick is a 30 year old man. He is married with no children. A man of high motivation, he promises to be quite successful in his field. He is well liked by his colleagues." What is the probability that Dick is an engineer?

3. Write down a string of 10 random H & T characters.

4. From 10 people, how many different committees of 2 members? 8 members?

5. One person draws 4 red balls & 1 white. Another 12 red & 8 white. What odds should each individual give that the source is 2/3 red (rather than 2/3 white)?

6. Estimate 1 x 2 x 3 x 4 x 5 x 6 x 7 x 8

1 (& 6): 8 x 7 x 6 x 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 (& rev) Actual: 40320 1974 median: 2250 descending; 512 ascending

2: The probability that Dick is an engineer should be 70:30 in one case and 30:70 in the other with odds ratio = (70/30)/(30/70) = 5.44 1974: observed ratio was close to 1.0.

3: n=2,3,4,5,6 in a row are quite likely (.998, .9, .61, .32, .14)1974: more than two in row (HH or TT) were rarely chosen.

4: 10 people, # committees of 2 or 8 members? Actual: C(10,2)=C(10,8)=45 1974 median for 2 was 70; for 8 was 20.

Human experiment

results

C(n,i)= n!/[i!(n-i)!]

5: 4/5 vs 12/20 -- which better supports 2/3 red rather than 2/3 white? 1974: Most people felt 4/5 (80%) is better evidence than 12/20 (60%)Actual: [C(5,4)(2/3)^4 (1/3) / C(5,1)(2/3)(1/3)^4]= 8 odds ratio[C(20,12)(2/3)^12 (1/3)^8 / C(20,8)(2/3)^8(1/3)^12]= 16

Human experiment results

Hence, programming in statistics & economics

Mechanical-Analog: slide rule (1620) Mechanical-Digital: Babbage (1837), DigiComp (1963)Electronic-Analog: 1940sElectronic Digital -- Procedural, imperative languages: Basic(’63), Lisp(’58), Algol, Cobol(’59), Fortran(’54), C(‘72), IBM360-Assembly(’64), FORMAC, APL, PL/I

Dynamic languages: Perl(‘87), Python(‘91).

Spreadsheets: double-entry bookkeeping (12th Century) Electronic Mattessich (’61). PC:Bricklin’s Visicalc (’79), Excel(’85), public spreadsheets (’70) Wikicalc etc.

http://www.meccano.us/analytical_engine/P1010006.MOV

Exp.py# File: Exp.py# http://www.python.org/download/# http://matplotlib.sourceforge.net/users/installing.html (EPD)# http://matplotlib.sourceforge.net/users/pyplot_tutorial.html

import numpy as npimport matplotlib.pyplot as plt

t1 = np.arange(0.0, 5.0, 0.1)plt.plot(t1, np.exp(t1), 'ro')plt.show()

Exp.xls

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03

0.035

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65

try k= 0.9, 1.01, 1.1, 1.5, 3, 3.67859, 4, 4.03

A3 =k*A2

A3 =MAX(k*A2*(1-A2),0)

A3 =k*A2*(1-A2)

Vertebratebrain size evolution

Ongoing Adaptive Evolution of ASPM, a Brain Size Determinant in Homo sapiens Science 2005 Bond et al 2002 ASPM is a major determinant of cerebral cortical size. Nat Genet. 32(2):316-20.Jerison, Paleoneurology & the Evolution of Mind, Scientific Amer. 1976

Human-chimp 1.2%Human-human 0.1%Genome: 2x 3Gbp

The Future of Human Naturehttp://www.bu.edu/pardee/events/conferences/2003/nature-program.html

The Law of Accelerating Returns  Ray Kurzweil(The Singularity Is Near : When Humans Transcend Biology)

An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense "intuitive linear" view. So we won't experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century -- it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today's rate). .. ultra-high levels of intelligence that expand outward in the universe at the speed of light. http://www.kurzweilai.net/articles/art0134.html?printable=1 Bill Joy Wired 8.04 | Apr 2000 Our most powerful 21st-century technologies - robotics, genetic engineering, and nanotech - are threatening to make humans an endangered species.

Inheritance is not just DNA

Inheritance is not just DNA

PastLocomotion 50 km/hOcean depth 75 mVisible .4-.7 Temperature 275-370Memory time 20 yrMemory 1E9 bitsCompute speed 1E14 opsCompute energy 5E12 op/J

http://www.techworld.com/opsys/features/index.cfm?fuseaction=displayfeatures&featureid=467&page=1&pagepos=5

http://www.merkle.com/humanMemory.html

Current26720 km/h10,912 mpm-Mm3-1900oK5000 yr1E17 bits1E14 ops5E12 op/J