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Systems Analysis Advisory Committee (SAAC)

Thursday, June 5, 2003Michael Schilmoeller

John Fazio

Northwest Power Planning Council

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Agenda

• Olivia– Status– New capabilities

• Representations in the portfolio model– Thermal units

• Statistics

Agenda

Northwest Power Planning Council

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Olivia

Finished and incorporated into Beta Version 1.0.3

Added ability to add, copy, and remove records

Added HELP

Finished and incorporated into Beta Version 1.0.4– Provide ability to transfer changes to the database

Finished and incorporated into Beta Version 1.0.5– Provided historical data -- prior to period 0 -- in behavior (for LTPRD,

planning flex)

– Detects changes and prompt for creation of new framework. (Need to restructure data)

– Added “derived behaviors”

Review

Northwest Power Planning Council

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Olivia Remaining

• Provide node click editing capability of a specific record

• Add supply curve logic to the dispatchable and fixed energy options

• Provide the capability to represent data several ways (cycles, steps, literal, etc.)

• Provide layout flexibility

• Finish writing verification subroutines for all classes.

• Start reserve margin logic

• Add permanent shutdown rule for aluminum plants

Review

Northwest Power Planning Council

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Agenda

• Olivia– Status– New capabilities

• Representations in the portfolio model– Thermal units

• Statistics

Agenda

Northwest Power Planning Council

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Price Duration Curve

• If we assume each hour’s dispatch is independent, we can ignore the chronological structure. Sorting by price yields the market price duration curve (MCD)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1 25 49 73 97 121

145

169

193

217

241

265

289

313

337

361

385

409

433

457

481

505

529

553

577

601

625

649

Hour

Mar

ket

Pri

ce $

/MW

h

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

40.00

Count of Hours

$/M

Wh

Value V is this area

operatorn expectatio theis (672) period in the hours ofnumber theis

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geH

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Hhge

H

Hhge

Review

Northwest Power Planning Council

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Representation of dispatchables

Comparison of techniques

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

120.0%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Month

Dis

pat

ch f

acto

r

Hourly

Spread

Actual

Review

Northwest Power Planning Council

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Partitioning the stack

• Ran Aurora for Dec 2003 hourly

• Used Mid-C prices for dispatch of the region

• Partitioned thermal resources– by capability stack– by cost– whether or not must-serve

Review

Northwest Power Planning Council

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Partitioning the stack

• Clustered by VOM (GT vs non-GT)

• Clustered by Heatrate

Review

Northwest Power Planning Council

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Partitioning the stack

Review

Unit Cap VOM Fuel HeatRateMust Run Units 1735.43 (none) (none) 0Waste Units 717.07 12 (none) 5000Centralia 2 288.10 1.83 Centralia 10240Centralia 1 288.10 1.83 Centralia 10240Encogen 1 73.04 3.02 Waste 5005.171Boardman 1 251.56 1.83 Boardman 10836PNW East NG 1 1069.44 3.02 PNW East NG 6743.447PNW West NG 1 490 3.02 PNW West NG 6968.46PNW East NG 2 705.6 3.02 PNW East NG 7031.9PNW West NG 2 92.15 8.62 PNW West NG 5500PNW West NG 3 1145.94 3.02 PNW West NG 7336.59PNW So ID NG 1 12.28 3.02 PNW So ID NG 7006.99PNW West NG 4 54.78 3.02 PNW West NG 8000PNW East NG 3 235.2 3.02 PNW East NG 7050PNW East NG 4 95 8.62 PNW East NG 8700PNW East NG 5 9 8.62 PNW East NG 9500PNW West NG 5 512.64 3.02 PNW West NG 9200PNW East NG 6 279.04 3.02 PNW East NG 10602.85PNW West NG 6 697.23 3.02 PNW West NG 10636.65PNW West NG 7 126.07 8.62 PNW West NG 12879.05PNW So ID NG 2 93.72 3.02 PNW So ID NG 11740.53PNW East NG 7 41.8 3.02 PNW East NG 11500PNW Oil 30.11 8.62 PNW Oil 11626.97

total 9043.30

Northwest Power Planning Council

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Partitioning the stack

Review

Set_ID Value ($/MMBTU)Fuel Vol 0.01Market Vol Price 0.07Market Exp Price 36.14PNW Oil fuel Exp Price 5.81PNW So ID NG fuel Exp Price 3.41PNW West NG fuel Exp Price 3.25PNW East NG fuel Exp Price 3.17Boardman fuel Exp Price 1.00Waste fuel Exp Price 0.05Centralia fuel Exp Price 1.52

Northwest Power Planning Council

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Capacity Factors

Review

Olivia AuroraMust Run Units 100% 100%Waste Units 100% 100%Centralia 2 VOM 100% 100%Centralia 1 VOM 100% 100%Encogen 1 Vom 100% 100%Boardman 1 VOM 100% 100%PNW East NG 1 VOM 100% 100%PNW West NG 1 VOM 100% 100%PNW East NG 2 VOM 100% 100%PNW West NG 2 VOM 100% 100%PNW West NG 3 VOM 100% 100%PNW So ID NG 1 VOM 30% 35%PNW West NG 4 VOM 100% 100%PNW East NG 3 VOM 100% 93%PNW East NG 4 VOM 80% 78%PNW East NG 5 VOM 44% 35%PNW West NG 5 VOM 32% 28%PNW East NG 6 VOM 28% 25%PNW West NG 6 VOM 10% 9%PNW West NG 7 VOM 10% 9%PNW So ID NG 2 VOM 8% 7%PNW East NG 7 VOM 5% 3%PNW Oil VOM 1% 3%

Northwest Power Planning Council

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Agenda

• Olivia– Status– New capabilities

• Representations in the portfolio model– Thermal units

• Statistics

Agenda