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SUSTAINABLE WORLD COAL MINING AND USE: PERSPECTIVES TO 2030

by Dr. Klaus BrendowWorld Energy Council, Geneva / London

INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE 22-23 NOVEMBER 2005 WARSAW

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FOUR QUESTIONS:

I. WHAT IS COAL’S ROLE IN WORLD MINING?

II. WHAT ARE COAL’S PERSPECTIVES TO 2030?

III. WOULD THOSE BE SUSTAINABLE”?

IV. WHAT ARE THE ISSUES AND OPTIONS FOR INDUSTRY AND GOVERNMENTS?

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COAL MINING WORLDWIDE: A COMPARISON

Coal in % of world mining

70

5053

129

71

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

%

output

employment

investments

capitalisation

foreign trade

fatalities

•World coal demand 2002: 4.8 bill. t•investments in coal mining equipment: $ 6.1 billion/year•fatalities: 10,000 +

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THE GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES 2000-2030-2050

• 2030: + 50 % (IEA), 100 % (EU)

World coal demand projections

5.14.9

8.5

11

5.6

2.9

2.11.8

1.4

3.3

5.6

6.8

3.4

3.7 3.9

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2000 2020 2030 2050 2075 2100

bill. tce WEC/IIASA B

WEC/IIASA C2

EU-WETO reference

EU-WETO carbon case

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The main drivers are:• electricity generation: in 2030, coal covers 45 % of world

power need• coal trade: about 640 mt in 2000 to 1100 mt in 2030• huge coal “reserves”

Lifetime of economically recoverable reserves,in years

40

160

460

60

050

100150200250300350400450500

1

ye

ars

hard coal

brown coal

oil

gas

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Share of developing countries in world coal demand: 1990: 37 %, 2050 68 %

CEE/CIS: modest revival till 2020 and possibly 2030 (+ 12 % )

Coal demand projections for central and eastern Europe and Russia

565

465

67

550525 530535

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1990 2000 2020 2030 2050

millio

n t

ce

upper limit

lower limit

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THE REASON: COAL’S PRICE COMPETITIVENESS IS GROWING

Actual and projected international fuel prices 1987 - 2030

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

19

87

19

90

19

93

19

96

19

99

20

02

20

05

20

08

20

11

20

14

20

17

20

20

20

23

20

26

20

2

US

$/t

ce

crude oil

natural gas

coal

source: IEA

Coal’s main competitor till 2030: natural gas, thereafter perhaps new nuclear

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GROWTH THANKS TO:

• PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH IN MINING:

5 to 10 %/year during the 1980 10 to 15 %/year, during the 1990s growth to continue due to rising

• labor productivity, restructuring, • liberalization, technology transfer, • growth of opencast versus • underground mining

• HIGHER EFFICIENCIES IN POWER PLANTS• present world average: 32 %• state of the art 42 to 25 %• perspective: 50 to 53 %

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Graph 2: Development of Productivity in

the Hard Coal Mining Industry

from 1985 to 2000 or 2001*

4.400

14.224

5.000

11.000

4.200

13.200

1.400

4.775

2.200

5.400

0

2.000

4.000

6.000

8.000

10.000

12.000

14.000

1985 2001 1985 2000 1985 2001 1985 2001 1989* 2000

* 1985 figures not available ** incl. lignite Source: Association of German Coal Importers

Annual tonnes/ staff USA Canada Australia South-Africa Columbia

**

20 %

30 %

40 %

50 %

60 %

70 %

80 %

90 %

200 °C 400 °C 600 °C 800 °C 1,000 °C 1,200 °C 1,400 °C 1,600 °C

Carnot process = theoretical maximum

Conventional steam power plant with DeNOx and FGD

Combined gas and steam turbine process with coal conversion and gas clean-up

with pressurized pulverized coal combustion

with coal gasification

State of the art Planned Research

with pressurized fluidized bed combustion

with natural gas

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III. SUSTAINABLE COAL USE

       mining control of dust, noise, water tables, land use       emissions of SO2, Nox desulphurization, denoxification       emissions of CO2 efficiency plus carbon sequestration and storage

Global CO2 emissions from coal-based power plants, and mitigation potential

2000-2030-2050

64

9

15 18

11 14

79

47 7

0

5

10

15

20

2000 2030 2050

Gt

CO

2

base line emissions assumingdoubling of total coal demand

of which for power generation

effect of higher combustionefficiencies (net of CCS conversionlosses)

emissions after carbon capture andstorage

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Global CO2 emissions from coal-based power plants at various coal demand growth rates

net of efficiency gains and CCS

7

5 5

9

4

7

0123456789

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2000 2030 2050

Gt

CO

2 doubling by 2050 (1.4 %/y)

+ 50 % by 2050 (0.8 %/y)

historical (2 %/y)

Results:    stabilization possible as of 2030   even at doubling of coal demand by 2050,   but no decrease against 2000

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IV. POLICIES AND BUSINESS STRATEGIES

      

Governments     to favour market-oriented, non-discriminatory energy policies (phase-out price controls, import tariffs, producer subsidies; privatisation)

   to support RD&D in carbon capture and storage

    to adopt ILO Convention on Safety in Mines, close illegal mines, and regulate small-scale mining

    to encourage technology transfer, JI, CDM and emission trading

   to enforce higher environmental standards 

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MINING COMPANIES

to preserve coal’s price competitiveness and profitability

to promote sustainable mining, e. g. through ISO certification

to deploy good mining and management practices to newly emerging

coal nations (capacity building, community development)

 

 COAL-BASED POWER GENERATORS

to proactively support clean coal combustion technologies and RD&D

in carbon capture and storage to explore synfuels production

to promote coal’s image and spread the message:

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1. COAL CAN CONTRIBUTE SIGNIFICANTLY TO

SOCIO- ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, ERADICATION OF ENERGY POVERTY AND SECURITY OF ENERGY SUPPLIES.

2. COAL CAN BE CLEAN.

3. COAL IS PART OF THE PROBLEM OF

SUSTAINABILITY, BUT ALSO PART OF THE SOLUTION.”

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Changing regional structure of coal demand, 2002-2030

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

Wor

ld

ind.

Cou

ntrie

s

deve

lopi

ng c

.

Nor

th A

mer

ica

EU

othe

r E

urop

e

Aus

tr./

NZ

Rus

sia

oth

er t

rans

ition

econ

omie

s

Chi

na

Asi

a

Lat

in A

mer

ica

Mid

dle

Ea

st

Afr

ica

mt 2002

2030