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1 Social Science Theories of the 20 th Century: Evolving, or What? Generally, academic disciplines...
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1 Social Science Theories of the 20 th Century: Evolving, or What? Generally, academic disciplines suggest that they are advancing and/or evolving because its researchers are, “adding to the storehouse of knowledge.” However, from a systems and/or evolutionary perspective, such an increase is merely additive and does not really represent any increase in complexity, usefulness, or an evolutionary advance. Recent insights, backed by rigorous analyses, have shown that the evolution of a theory can be measured by quantifying the systemic interrelatedness of the logical structure within each theory. In those studies, evolutionary advance has been linked to increased co-causality between the aspects of each conceptual system – and increased systemic co-causality has been linked to dramatic improvements in the usefulness of those theories. Here, we look at the amalgamation of various studies to see if a pattern emerges – are we truly evolving towards theories of greater usefulness and effectiveness, or are we “churning in place?” www.projectfas t.org swallis@ProjectFAST.org
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Transcript of 1 Social Science Theories of the 20 th Century: Evolving, or What? Generally, academic disciplines...
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*Social Science Theories of the 20th Century: Evolving, or What?Generally, academic disciplines suggest that they are advancing and/or evolving because its researchers are, adding to the storehouse of knowledge. However, from a systems and/or evolutionary perspective, such an increase is merely additive and does not really represent any increase in complexity, usefulness, or an evolutionary advance.Recent insights, backed by rigorous analyses, have shown that the evolution of a theory can be measured by quantifying the systemic interrelatedness of the logical structure within each theory. In those studies, evolutionary advance has been linked to increased co-causality between the aspects of each conceptual system and increased systemic co-causality has been linked to dramatic improvements in the usefulness of those theories. Here, we look at the amalgamation of various studies to see if a pattern emerges are we truly evolving towards theories of greater usefulness and effectiveness, or are we churning in place?www.projectfast.org [email protected]
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*Overview [email protected], Stinchcombe, Kaplan, etc.: agree theories are more effective when they are more highly structured (however, they did not provide a useful way to measure the structure).Wallis pioneered Propositional Analysis. To quantify structureFound relationship between structure and effectiveness of theory.Confirmed untested assumptions of previous scholars. Structure may include: Complexity (number of concepts), and Robustness (systemicity or interrelatedness between concepts).Faust & Meehl: suggest cliometric metatheory to link the structure of theory with the success of those theories.
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*Propositional AnalysisIdentify the logical propositions.Diagram the causal relationships.Integrate diagrams.Identify and count the Concatenated aspects (two or more causal influences).Count the total number of aspects (Complexity of the theory).Calculate the Robustness(divide Concatenated aspects by total aspects).
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*Abstract ExampleADCBACCEPropositions Within a TheoryRigorouslyIntegratedABCDEFour linear logics poorly connectedC = 5R = 0.20NOTE: Propositions may be drawn from one theory or many theoriesNOTE: Concatenated aspect is privileged (emergent, Batesons dual description)
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*Previous Study Shows The Evolution Of Theory in two Measures of StructureHighly useful theories have concepts that are more co-causally interrelated / connectedDuring the Scientific Revolution, theories become more complex [email protected] the power curveOver the evolutionary hump
Chart2
0.140.14
0.170.17
0.210.21
0.360.36
11
Robustness
Year
Robustness
Change in Robustness (interrelatedness)
Sheet1
YearTotal Number of AspectsNumber of Concatenated AspectsRobustness
100710.14Plutarch
1550610.17Cardan
16001430.21Gilbert
17501140.36Two fluid theory
1785331Coulomb
YearRobustness
1000.14
15500.17
16000.21
17500.36
17851
Sheet1
00
00
00
00
00
Robustness
Year
Robustness
Theories of Electrostatic Attraction
Sheet2
00
00
00
00
00
Total number of Aspects
Number of Concatenated Aspects
Year
Number of Aspects
Change in Aspects Over Time
Sheet3
Chart1
7
6
14
11
3
Total number of Aspects
Year
No. of Concepts
Change in Complexity Over Time
Sheet1
YearTotal Number of AspectsNumber of Concatenated AspectsRobustness
100710.14Plutarch
1550610.17Cardan
16001430.21Gilbert
17501140.36Two fluid theory
1785331Coulomb
YearRobustness
1000.14
15500.17
16000.21
17500.36
17851
Sheet1
00
00
00
00
00
Robustness
Year
Robustness
Theories of Electrostatic Attraction
Sheet2
71
61
143
114
33
Total number of Aspects
Number of Concatenated Aspects
Year
Number of Aspects
Change in Aspects Over Time
Sheet3
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*Sample: Nine Highly Cited Theories of Motivation from Psychological ReviewDeclining Complexity - 150 years until it disappears completelyVery slow increase in Robustness - 900 years until it becomes fully effective
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*Sample: Complexity of 10 Theories of Conflict from SociologySlowly declining complexity may disappear circa 2044
Chart1
22
11
20
8.7
10
complexity
year
Complexity
Sheet1
constructyearcomplexityrobustnessnumber of theoriesnotes
United Nations Chater1945130.081
League of Nations Compact191950.21
Prussian military policy1870110.091
French military policy187050.21
Marx sociological theory of conflict1844220.231?
Weber sociological theory of conflict1915110.271?
Dahrendorf - sociological theory of conflict1959200.251?
Simmel - sociological theory of conflict1890100.31?
Simmel - sociological theory of conflict1890100.41?
Simmel - sociological theory of conflict189060.331?
Coser - sociological theory of conflict1956120.251?
Coser - sociological theory of conflict195690.221?
Coser - sociological theory of conflict1956100.31?
Coser - sociological theory of conflict195690.221?
CAS1997-200480.6320focus on co-casual core served to reduce complexity and increase robustness
Republican Party Economic Policy2012601yearcomplexityrobustness
Democratic Party Economic Policy2012150.1311844220.23
Scotland Drug reduction policy - simple2008130.0811915110.27
Scotland Drug reduction policy - co-causal2008120.6711959200.25
20 Tenants of integral theory1995280.111890100.3
AQAL2005?38011890100.4
Peak Performance Theory1999140.141189060.33
Peak Performance Theory1995120.3311956120.25
Peak Performance Theory1995-1999230.172195690.22
Institutional Theory1987-2006300.31141956100.3
Gandhi nonviolence1907-1934200.251195690.22
Social Entrepreneurship Theory1999-2007230.136
Social Entrepreneurship (complexity focus)2009560.149
Complexity Theory (organizational focus)1998-200690.568focus on co-casual core served to reduce complexity and increase robustness
Organizational Learning Theory2004-2006190.1612originated late 1960s
Sheet1
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
Complexity
Robustness
Year
Number of Aspects in Theory
Sheet2
yearcomplexityrobustnessyear
1844220.231844
1890100.31890
1890100.41890
189060.331890
1915110.271915
1956120.251956
195690.221956
1956100.31956
195690.221956
1959200.251959
22
11
20
Sheet2
complexity
robustness
Year
Complexity
Sheet3
robustness
Year
Complexity
robustness
year
robustness
complexity
year
complexity of theories
complexityyearrobustness
2218440.23
1119150.27
2019590.25
8.718900.34
1019560.25
complexity
year
Complexity
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*Sample: Robustness of 10 Theories of Conflict from SociologySlow Increase may become fully successful circa 2712
Chart2
0.23
0.27
0.25
0.34
0.25
robustness
Year
Robustness
Sheet1
constructyearcomplexityrobustnessnumber of theoriesnotes
United Nations Chater1945130.081
League of Nations Compact191950.21
Prussian military policy1870110.091
French military policy187050.21
Marx sociological theory of conflict1844220.231?
Weber sociological theory of conflict1915110.271?
Dahrendorf - sociological theory of conflict1959200.251?
Simmel - sociological theory of conflict1890100.31?
Simmel - sociological theory of conflict1890100.41?
Simmel - sociological theory of conflict189060.331?
Coser - sociological theory of conflict1956120.251?
Coser - sociological theory of conflict195690.221?
Coser - sociological theory of conflict1956100.31?
Coser - sociological theory of conflict195690.221?
CAS1997-200480.6320focus on co-casual core served to reduce complexity and increase robustness
Republican Party Economic Policy2012601yearcomplexityrobustness
Democratic Party Economic Policy2012150.1311844220.23
Scotland Drug reduction policy - simple2008130.0811915110.27
Scotland Drug reduction policy - co-causal2008120.6711959200.25
20 Tenants of integral theory1995280.111890100.3
AQAL2005?38011890100.4
Peak Performance Theory1999140.141189060.33
Peak Performance Theory1995120.3311956120.25
Peak Performance Theory1995-1999230.172195690.22
Institutional Theory1987-2006300.31141956100.3
Gandhi nonviolence1907-1934200.251195690.22
Social Entrepreneurship Theory1999-2007230.136
Social Entrepreneurship (complexity focus)2009560.149
Complexity Theory (organizational focus)1998-200690.568focus on co-casual core served to reduce complexity and increase robustness
Organizational Learning Theory2004-2006190.1612originated late 1960s
Sheet1
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
Complexity
Robustness
Year
Number of Aspects in Theory
Sheet2
yearcomplexityrobustnessyear
1844220.231844
1890100.31890
1890100.41890
189060.331890
1915110.271915
1956120.251956
195690.221956
1956100.31956
195690.221956
1959200.251959
22
11
20
Sheet2
complexity
robustness
Year
Complexity
Sheet3
robustness
Year
Complexity
robustness
year
robustness
complexity
year
complexity of theories
complexityyearrobustness
2218440.23
1119150.27
2019590.25
8.718900.34
1019560.25
complexity
year
Complexity
robustness
Year
Robustness
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*Two Comparable Economic Policies Implemented in the Early 1980sPrice & Income Accords (Australia)C = 14R = 0.0Wassenaar Accords (Netherlands)C = 5R = 0.20
Chart1
0.015
0.198
Complexity of Policy
Potential Efficacy
Economic Policies of Two Political Parties
Sheet1
complexitypotential effectiveness
160.06
13.80.015
50.198
Sheet1
0
0
0
Complexity of Policy
Potential Efficacy
Economic Policies of Three Parties
Sheet2
Sheet3
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*Two Comparable Economic Policies of the Present USA Election CycleDemocraticC = 15R = 0.13RepublicanC = 6R = 0
Chart1
0.14
0
Complexity of Policy
Potential Efficacy
Economic Policies of Two Political Parties
Sheet1
complexitypotential effectiveness
160.06
150.14
60
Sheet1
0
0
0
Complexity of Policy
Potential Efficacy
Economic Policies of Three Parties
Sheet2
Sheet3
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*Insights & ConclusionsMixed bag There does not seem to be an evolution towards theories of greater usefulness.Complexity of theories of motivation appear to be declining.Inappropriate bias towards parsimony?The rigorous integration of multiple theories shows promise.Future studies: Larger sample size; Include more sub-fields; Include more journals as sources.YOUR IMPRESSIONS?
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*To Better Serve Humanity We Must Directly Address TheoryFIRST - make theories that are more complex. More collaboration between scholars. Greater collaboration between disciplines.More scholar-practitioner collaboration.Journals should encourage more complex theories.Journals should evaluate submissions based on RobustnessTHEN we may create theories that are more Robust and so are more effective. [email protected] look forward to collaborating with YOU!
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*MANY THANKS!The 56th Annual Meeting of the International Society for the Systems SciencesJuly 15-20, 2012 San Jose, California, USAwww.projectfast.org [email protected] E. Wallis, Ph.D.Director, Foundation for the Advancement of Social TheoryFellow, Institute for Social Innovation, Fielding Graduate UniversityAdjunct Faculty, Capella University
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*Where do Some Theories Stand - Robustness?Institutional Theory (14 theories)R = 0.31Peak Performance (2 theories)R = 0.17 Organizational Learning Theory (12 theories) R = 0.16Gandhian Ethics (single theory)R = 0.25
Integral Theory(single theory) R = 0.10 Social Entrepreneurship Theory (6 theories)R = 0.13CAS Theory (20 theories)R = 0.63 Complexity Theory (8 theories)R = 0.56 Social Entrepreneurship (CT) (9 theories)R = 0.14
Chart3
0.140.14
0.170.17
0.210.21
0.360.36
11
Robustness
Robustness
Sheet1
YearTotal Number of AspectsNumber of Concatenated AspectsRobustness
100710.14Plutarch
1550610.17Cardan
16001430.21Gilbert
17501140.36Two fluid theory
1785331Coulomb
YearRobustness
1000.14
15500.17
16000.21
17500.36
17851
yearrobustness
1000.1Integral Theory
0.13Social Entreprenuership Theory
0.16Organizational Learning Theory
0.17Peak Performance Theory
0.31Institutional Theory
0.15Structure of Ethics
0.56Complexity Theory
0.63Complex Adaptive Systems Theory
Sheet1
00
00
00
00
00
Robustness
Year
Robustness
Theories of Electrostatic Attraction
Sheet2
00
00
00
00
00
Total number of Aspects
Number of Concatenated Aspects
Year
Number of Aspects
Change in Aspects Over Time
Sheet3
00
00
00
00
00
Robustness
Robustness
Management Theories Superimposed on Development of Electrostatic Attraction Theory
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*Where do Some Theories Stand in Terms of ComplexityInstitutional Theory (14 theories)C = 30Peak Performance (2 theories)C = 23Organizational Learning Theory (12 theories) C = 19Gandhian Ethics (single theory)C = 20
Integral Theory(single theory) C = 28Social Entrepreneurship Theory (6 theories)C = 23Social Entrepreneurship (CT) (9 theories)C = 56
Chart1
19.4
14.6
84.5
60
10
Total number of Aspects
Concepts
Sheet1
YearTotal Number of AspectsNumber of Concatenated AspectsRobustness
10019.410.14Plutarch
155014.610.17Cardan
160084.530.21Gilbert
17506040.36Two fluid theory
17851031Coulomb
YearRobustness
1000.14
15500.17
16000.21
17500.36
17851
Sheet1
00
00
00
00
00
Robustness
Year
Robustness
Theories of Electrostatic Attraction
Sheet2
71
61
143
114
33
Total number of Aspects
Number of Concatenated Aspects
Year
Number of Aspects
Change in Aspects Over Time
Sheet3
***Source: Wallis (building on work of Dubin, Kaplan, Stinchcombe)Explanation: Based on causal relationships and concatenation. Here are four components, one is concatenated (resultant from two or more causal components) So, Robustness (measure of structure) is one divided by four = 0.25. Strength: Repeatable, provides objective path for advancing theory. Robustness has been related to efficacy in practical application.Limit: Based on ideas of integral thinking and complexity theory which have not themselves been proved*******
