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1 Reykjavik, 19 March 2004 MINISTRY OF ECONOMY, LABOUR AND SOCIAL POLICY Labour Market Department EURES The Labour Market Situation and Enlargement of the EU Slide 2 2 1. Poland brief overview. 2. Public employment services in Poland. 3.The labour market in Poland employment and unemployment, characteristic of unemployment structure. 4.Migration Trends in an Enlarged Europe and Forecasts of Polish workers mobility after the enlargement of the EU. 5.Expectations concerning the EU-Enlargement in Poland. OUTLINE OF THE PRESENTATION Slide 3 3 POLAND in Europe Slide 4 4 Szczecin Gdask Toru Pozna Zielona Gra Wrocaw Opole Katowice Krakw d Kielce Rzeszw Lublin Warsaw Biaystok Olsztyn Voiv ZACHODNIO POMORSKIE Voiv POMORSKIE Voiv WARMISKO- MAZURSKIE Voiv PODLASKIE Voiv LUBELSKIE Voiv PODKARPACKIE Voiv KUJAWSKO- POMORSKIE Voiv MAZOWIECKIE Voiv DZKIE Voiv WIELKOPOLSKIE Voiv LUBUSKIE Voiv DOLNOLSKIE Voiv OPOLSKIE Voiv LSKIE Voiv MAOPOLSKIE Voiv WITOKRZY SKIE Baltic Sea Germany the Czech Republic Slovakia Ukraina Lithuania Territory: 312 685 km Population: 38.2 mln Number of voivodships: 16 Number of districts: 338 Number of communes: 2 489 Belorus Russia POLAND - Voivodships and Main Cities Slide 5 5 Average gross monthly salary in the enterprise sector in IV quarter 2003 PLN 2 276 = 484 Average gross monthly salary in the enterprise sector in IV quarter 2003 PLN 2 276 = 484 GDP growth in IV quarter 2003 4.7 % Currency thePolish zloty (PLN)1 buys PLN 4.7 Currency the Polish zloty (PLN) 1 buys PLN 4.7 Inflation in January 2004 1.7 % Employment rate in IV quarter 2003 by BAEL* 44,2 % Registered unemployment rate in January 2004 20,6% Minimum gross monthly wage - PLN 824 = 175 * Labour Force Survey carried out by Central Statistic Office in Poland POLAND main economic indicators Slide 6 6 Ministry of Economy, Labour and Social Policy Local Labour Offices - 338 Local elected self - governing authorities Regional Labour Offices - 16 Regional elected self-governing authorities Regional government authorities Supervision Legend: Direct influence PUBLIC EMPLOYMENT SERVICES in Poland Slide 7 7 Ministry of Economy, Labour and Social Policy Voivodship (Regional) Labour Offices - Wojewdzki Urzd Pracy (16) Local Labour Offices Powiatowy Urzd Pracy (338) EURES TEAM Labour Market Department: EURES Manager full time Assistant of EURES Manager full time Budget Specialist part time IT Department: IT Specialist part time EURES Line Managers (16) EURES advisors (13) Regional EURES assistants (19) Local EURES assistants (338)* * in a near future EURES in Poland Slide 8 8 PUBLIC EMPLOYMENT SERVICES in Poland www.praca.gov.pl Slide 9 9 LABOUR MARKET in Poland Slide 10 10 LABOUR MARKET in Poland The structure of employed by economic sectors in IV 2003 by BAEL Slide 11 11 NATIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT unemployment rate: 20,6% (January 2004)unemployment rate: 20,6% (January 2004) actual numbers: 3.293 mln unemployed personsactual numbers: 3.293 mln unemployed persons Slide 12 12 January 20.6% Unemployment rate registered in 1990 - 2004 Slide 13 13 % LABOUR MARKET in Poland LABOUR MARKET in Poland Unemployment rate by voivodships (regions) at the end of January 2004 Slide 14 14 REGISTERED UNEMPLOYED PERSONS BY AGE IN POLAND LABOUR MARKET in Poland Slide 15 15 REGISTERED UNEMPLOYED PERSONS BY EDUCATIONAL LEVEL IN POLAND LABOUR MARKET in Poland Slide 16 16 REGISTERED UNEMPLOYED PERSONS BY DURATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT LEVEL IN POLAND LABOUR MARKET in Poland Slide 17 17 Unemployed registered at the end of June 2003 by NACE classification Slide 18 18 In accordance with the Accession Treaty, Poland is entitled to application of mutual rule in the field of free movement of workers, if EU member country introduces transitional periods concerning free access of Polish citizens to its labour market. It is expected that Poland will introduce this rule. Changing of regulations in this subject was proposed, but the final decision will be made by Polish Parliament. TRANSITIONAL PERIODS Slide 19 19 Migration Trends in an Enlarged Europe (1) Research Report by European Foundation for the Improvement and Living Conditions in 2004 (in percentage) Intention to go work EU 15 Slide 20 20 Migration Trends in an Enlarged Europe (2) Forecast of migration potential: - only 1% of the population of the new member states would move into the current EU 15 over the next five years 220 thou. per year - 2/3 of immigrants intend to work in the EU 15 temporarily (currently EU welcomes approximately 1.5 milion immigrants per year from countries outside accession states) - overall 2% (expressing a firm intention) of unemployed people want to migrate - the main migration potential (70%) consist of single people - the typicall migrant from acceding countries is young, well-educated or studying in third-level education Research Report by European Foundation for the Improvement and Living Conditions in 2004 Slide 21 21 Forecast of Polish workers mobility after the enlargement of the EU (1) Intention for go work abroad Motives for migrating Persons aged 15-29 Source: Wprost, March 2004, on the base of PENTOR survey Slide 22 22 mostly young people, both men and women, with relatively low professional qualifications and whose profession is not very competitive on the market, tend to migrate from rural areas and small towns major migration destinations include: Germany (agriculture), France (construction works, agriculture), Italy, Greece and the United States major migration destinations include: Germany (agriculture), France (construction works, agriculture), Italy, Greece and the United States migrations are usually seasonal (between three and 12 months) and cyclical; only a few migrants stay and have their families join them migrations are usually seasonal (between three and 12 months) and cyclical; only a few migrants stay and have their families join them Forecasts of Polish workers mobility after the enlargement of the EU (2) Characteristics of migration dynamics in Poland Slide 23 23 many migrants are employed illegally the chain nature of seasonal migration - migrants tend to choose places where they had been before, where their friends, relatives or inhabitants of the same town are staying the basic motivation for emigration is ensuring financial safety the nature of migration of representatives of liberal professions is different; the respondents demonstrated that, their attitude is affected by the current professional situation, financial prosperity, career development, contacts with a foreign professional environment, prestigious status in the society and stability of employment Forecasts of Polish workers mobility after the enlargement of the EU (3) Characteristics of migration dynamics in Poland Slide 24 24 migration trends depend not only on economic and demographic situation of a given country but also, or most of all, on the demand for workforce in the target country Forecasts of Polish workers mobility after the enlargement of the EU (4) MIGRATION TRENDS IN POLAND - conclusions social and cultural factors decrease willingness to migrate migration potential is not affected by the unemployment rate, either. The unemployed, particularly long-term unemployed, do not show migration tendencies some EU member states are currently seeking employees abroad, especially in the medical sector; this trend will intensify. This results from the demographic situation (the ageing of the society) the most important change during the period of transformation in Poland was a rapid decrease in the number of migrants with secondary or tertiary education; mostly unskilled blue collar workers have migrated Slide 25 25 the level of social optimism in Poland has changed very frequently and has been conditional upon numerous factors. Polands accession to the EU and the provision of financial and technological assistance will contribute to a greater optimistic outlook for Polands economic and social development the process of abolishing political and legal barriers which is often related to the growth of liberties in the home country and hopes for economic development weaken the desire to look for a job away from home. If formal and legal possibilities of seeking a job abroad are guaranteed, this will help diminish the pressure to seize an opportunity as it comes and postpone the realisation of such need Forecasts of Polish workers mobility after the enlargement of the EU (5) MIGRATION TRENDS IN POLAND - conclusions Slide 26 26 Polish citizens working abroad on the basis of international (bilateral) agreements Country 19951996199719981999200020012002 Germany including: seasonal workers 182 818 158 979 212 593 185 430 222 225 189 424 219 764 201 681 237 057 218 000 257 640 238 160 284 189 261 133 313 193 282 830 France including: seasonal workers 3 596 3 573 3 401 3 351 3 291 3 011 2 759 2 681 2 803 2 723 3 451 3 336 4 808 4 519 8 369 7 013 the Czech Republic 2 7263 0044 5764 2703 1713 2767 1006 664 Spain including: seasonal workers 600 5 417 5 315 another countries (Slovakia, Belgium, Norway, Ireland) 379397570509232170292348 Total: 189 519219 395230 662227 302243 263264 537296 989333 991 Forecasts of Polish workers mobility after the enlargement of the EU (6) Slide 27 27 In 2003, there where 39 199 Polish citizens recruited by Polish private employment agencies, for foreign employers. To Island there were recruited 52 of them. Private employment agencies recruitment of Polish citizens for foreign employers in 2003 Slide 28 28 179 187 455 151 55 1 491 91 10 386 397 41 255 341 Work permits TOTAL: Italy the United Kingdom Hungary Sweden Slovenia Slovakia Portugal Germany Malta Latvia Luxembourg Country Lithuania 8 771Ireland 676the Netherlands 1 438Spain 101Greece 361France 33Finland 147Estonia 91Denmark 1 865the Czech Republic 2Cyprus 16Belgium 2Austria Work permitsCountry Work permits issued in Poland in 2003 (the EU and candidates) Slide 29 29 Expectations concerning the EU-Enlargement in Poland (1) Referendum of Polands Accession to the EU in June 2003 According to the Pastwowa Komisja Wyborcza Slide 30 30 Expectations concerning the EU-Enlargement in Poland (2) Improvement of situation on labor market reduction of unemployment, possibility of employment abroad - 43% Better perspectives for young people and next generations for children and grand children - 22% General improvement of economic situation - 16% Growth of societys wealth - 14% Generall integration will be profitable for Poland - 8% Hopelessness accession of Poland to the EU will change nothing or will worsen - 20% The most often mentioned hope related to Polands accession to the European Union in June 2003 According to the CBOS (Centre of Public Opinion Survey) survey in June 2003 Slide 31 31 Expectations concerning the EU-Enlargement in Poland (3) Growth of prices on articles and services - Growth of prices on articles and services - 26% Growth unemployment - Growth unemployment - 10% Repurchase of national property by foreigners, domination of foreign capital in the Polish economy - in the Polish economy - 10% Impoverishment of society, worsening of material standards - Impoverishment of society, worsening of material standards - 8% Worsening of the situation in the countryside and in the agriculture - Worsening of the situation in the countryside and in the agriculture - 7% Worsening situation in the domestic market flooding of the Polish market by EU articles, break down of sale of Polish products - articles, break down of sale of Polish products - 5% Worsening situation of Polish firms and companies - greater competition of EU firms, bankruptcy of Polish companies - 4% Generall worsening - Generall worsening - 6% There are no fears - 23% The most often mentioned fears related to Polands accession to the European Union in June 2003 According to the CBOS (Centre of Public Opinion Survey) survey in June 2003 Slide 32 32 Expectations concerning the EU-Enlargement in Poland (4) The employment of Polish citizens abroad will increase or decrease after the accession Polands to the EU structures? According to the CBOS (Centre of Public Opinion Survey) survey in February 2003