1. Rational Actor Theory: The more knowledgeable a person ...
Transcript of 1. Rational Actor Theory: The more knowledgeable a person ...
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Two Theories of Risk Perception
1. Rational Actor Theory: The more knowledgeable a person is regarding a technology or practice, the more accurate their risk perceptions will be.
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Two Theories of Risk Perception
1. Rational Actor Theory: The more knowledgeable a person is regarding a technology or practice, the more accurate their risk perceptions will be.
2. Cultural Theory of Risk Perception: People perceive risks in relation to cultural commitments.
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Two Values(there are many more, but these are a nice start)
Egalitarianism <-> Hierarchy
Individualism <-> Communitarianism
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Hierarchist
Egalitarian
CommunitarianIndividualist
Culturally Identifiable Experts
Source: Kahan, Braman, Cohen, Slovic, & Gastil, Who Fears the HPV Vaccine, Who Doesn’t, and Why? An
Experimental Study of the Mechanisms of Cultural Cognition, Law & Human Behavior (2010), advance on-line
publication doi: 10.1007/s10979-009-9201-0
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“How much risk do you believe each of the following poses to the safety or health of people in our society?”
1.90
2.15
2.40
2.65
2.90
Priv
ate
Gun
Owne
rship
Mad
Cow
Disea
se
Nuc
lear
Pow
er
Gen
etically M
odified
Foo
ds
Inte
rnet
Por
nogr
aphy
Distri
butio
n
Gay
Mar
riage
Familiar with NanotechUnfamiliar with Nanotech
Ris
k Pe
rcep
tio
n
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63%
77%
61%
85%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
No Information Information-Exposed
Experimental Condition
Be
ne
ifts
> R
isks
Unfamiliar with Nano
Familiar with Nano86%
61%
23%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
No Information Information-Exposed
Experimental Condition
Be
ne
ifts
> R
isks
Hierarchical Individualist
Egalitarian Communitarian
*
*
* Change across conditions significant at p < .05
Source: Kahan , Braman, Slovic, Gastil & Cohen Cultural Cognition ofNanotechnology Risks and Benefits, Nature Nanotechnology, 4(2), 87-91 (2009)
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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
0.9%
2.2%
3.6%
5.8%
19.5%
-1.4%-0.9%-0.9%-0.5%
-2.6%
0%
-5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
5%
Incre
ase
in P
red
icte
d L
ike
liho
od
of S
elf-
Re
po
rte
d F
am
ilia
rity
with
Na
no
tech
no
log
y
Hierarch
Egalitarian
20th 40th 60th 80th 99th
Communitarian IndividualisticPercentile
Figure S1
1st
Source: Kahan , Braman, Slovic, Gastil & Cohen Cultural Cognition of
Nanotechnology Risks and Benefits, Nature Nanotechnology, 4(2), 87-91 (2009)
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Prior
Risk
Perception
Revised
Risk
Perception
Cultural
Predisposition
Two Mechanisms of Cultural Cognition
New
Information
Culturally biased information search
Other
Souces
Culturally biased assimilationPersistent cultural polarization
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-1.8
-1.6
-1.4
-1.2
-1.0
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
No Diff.
Nuclear Power-0.75 (.06)
Global Warming-1.35 (.06)
“Mad Cow”
-0.41 (.05)
Synbio+0.17 (.06)
+
Hierarch-Individ.Less Concerned.
Hierarch-Individ.
More Concerned.
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Leiserowitz
"Naysayer"
-16.9% (4%)
Risk Believer
-15.7% (1.9%)
Conservative
-4.8% (1.5%)
Regular Churchgoer
-6.6% (2.2%)
Nonreligious
6.6% (2.9%)
Liberal
7.0% (2.1%)
Hierach. Individualist
-13.4% (2.8%)
Egalitarian Individualist,
+7.5% (3.7%)
Female
-4.1% (1.5%)
Risk Skeptic
+15.5% (1.8%)
SampleMean
10%
20%
30%
- 10%
- 20%
- 30%
Ch
ange
in L
ikel
iho
od
of
Agr
eein
g B
enef
its
> R
isks
+
+
+
++
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1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
Knowledge and Risk Perception
Knowledge about Synthetic biology
Th
e r
isks o
f synth
etic b
iolo
gy a
re lik
ely
to
be
ve
ry la
rge
.
other risks high
other risks low
nothing at all Just a little a moderate amount a lot
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
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Governance
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Practical Upshot #1
• If your goal is consensus, public education and increased scientific literacy are unlikely to produce it.
• The more educated and informed people are, the more they disagree.
• Facts have a place, but they must come after(temporally, not normatively) cultural attentiveness.
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Practical Upshot #2
Everyone cares about risk, but risk perception is often a function of perceptions about whether one’s values are being honored or disparaged.
(1)Attend to values first. Convey – and intend! –respect for non-risk related concerns.
(2)Once people feel respected, they are more likely to be receptive to science or (as some prefer) leave everything to experts.
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Practical Upshot #3
People care about what a regulatory scheme says about them as much as they care about what it does.
– Bring members of diverse groups into the discussion so that the public sees that people like them – people from their tribe – are part of the process.
– Who is involved is just as important as what the end result is.
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