Decision making processes can be affected by flaws in decision thinking

These flaws are psychological trapsthey are unconscious

We can only learn to be alert to them and compensate for them

These traps work in isolation or can amplify one another

Giving disproportionate weight to the first information you receive

Initial impressions, estimates, or data anchor subsequent thoughts and judgments

Anchors take many guises. A comment, or statistic, or stereotype, or a past event, or trend

View a problem from different perspectives. Use alternative starting points

Think about problem on your own before consulting others (to avoid anchoring by their ideas)

Seek information and opinions from a variety of people to widen frame of reference

Favoring alternatives that perpetuate the existing situation

Comfortable, not upsetting current balance Source is in our desire to protect our egos

from damage, less psychological risk Taking action (responsibility) opens us to

criticism and to regret

Ask if the status quo really serves your objectives

Ask if youd choose the status quo if it werent the status quo

Avoid exaggerating the effort or cost involved in switching from status quo

Making choices in a way that justifies past, flawed choices

Acknowledging poor decision in professional life is a public matter, inviting criticism

If penalties for decision that may lead to unfavorable outcomes are severe, this trap is strong

Get views of people who werent involved in the original decisions

Admitting to mistakes is habit to be cultivated

Dont cultivate a failure-fearing culture. Look at quality of decision making, not just the quality of the outcomes

Seeking information that supports your existing point of view

Check that all evidence is treated with equal rigor

Ask a respected colleague to argue against your potential decisiondevils advocate.

Whats the strongest reason to do something else? The second strongest reason? The third? Consider the position with an open mind.

Avoid yes-men

The Overconfidence Trap: Even though most of us are not very good at making estimates or forecasts, we actually tend to be overconfident about our accuracy, leading to errors in judgment and bad decisions

The Prudence Trap: Over-cautiousness, or prudence. When faced with high-stakes decisions, we adjust our estimates or forecasts just to be on the safe side

The Recallability Trap: We frequently base our predictions about future events on our memory of past events, so can be overly influenced by dramatic eventsthose that leave a strong impression on our memory

At every stage of the decision-making process, psychological traps can influence the choices we make

These traps can work in isolation, but also in concert

A dramatic first impression might anchor our thinking, and then we might selectively seek out confirming evidence to justify our initial impression

We make a hasty decision, and that decision establishes a new status quo. As our sunk costs mount, we become trapped, unable to find a new and possibly better course

The best protection against all psychological trapsin isolation or in combinationis awareness

Build discipline into your decision-making process to uncover errors in thinking before they become errors in judgment