1 Profit when Gold rises or falls with ETFs Presented by: Louis Paquette Publisher, EGS .

1

Profit when Gold rises or falls with ETFs

Presented by:

Louis PaquettePublisher, EGS

www.emerginggrowthstocks.cawww.emerginggrowthstocks.blogspot.com

http://www.emerginggrowthstocks.ca/

http://www.emerginggrowthstocks.ca/

2


*Chart Updates as of May 28, 2008*GOLD $923 May 26

• 908.76 (50-day) 837.65 (200-day) • Gold retraces 50% of the move down from $1,000 to $850 $75 + $850 = $925

3


HUI Index• Target: 375 (roughly 25 to 50 points below 200 dma)

4


HGD • Picked in March Issue at $7.88 - $10.34 on May 28 • Target is: $14 - $16 - where it was when gold last traded at $800 to $850

5


Our next Victim: Crude OilHOD $8.52 (May 28, 2008)

Breaking the trend line….

6


Visit out Blog

www.emerginggrowthstocks.blogspot.com

7

Gold Seasonal Trading Strategies

Question: In ONE WORD, what is the biggest challenge facing stock market investors and speculators?

8


UNCERTAINTY• Over: • Overall market conditions• Interest rates• Commodity prices• Specific company performance • Government intervention• Low odds of discovering a mineable economic deposit• Competition• Etc., etc., etc…

9


So what is certain?1. Patterns exit that one can profit from• Stock rise an average 7% per annum over time, but not consistently• There is a rhythm to asset price movement (cycles) from overbought

to oversold, from overly optimistic to overly pessimistic

Optimism

Pessimism

Stocks

10


2. Has strong annual seasonal tendencies

11


Once Gold is overbought – it always returns to the moving average

12


HUI Index Another strong tendency: Gold strength seems to alternate from year to year.

StrongWeakWeak StrongStrong

13


An aggressive way to play the cycle Horizon BetaPro ETFs HGD & HGU

Buy HGD anytime now on dips (on rallies in gold price) sell this summer

http://www.hbpetfs.com/index.asp

14


Advantages of Horizon’s ETF’s

1. Go Long or Short (“U” UP or “D” Down)

2. I.E.: HGDown or HGUp

3. Shorting and leverage without the hazards of short selling or options & futures

4. 2 X Leverage (they say. But really more)• If Gold moves 2%: • HUI 4% • HGD 6%


15


This summer: Sell HGD, Buy HGU


16

Gold Seasonal Trading Strategies Example of the leverage: 1-Day

return using the HGU.TSX ETF on Jan 2,2008

Close Dec 31

Close Jan 2

Change Percent

Gold (Feb) $838 $860 +$22 +2.6%

HUI Index 409 435 +26 +6.0%

HGU.TSX ETF

24.22 27.85 +3.63 +15.0%

17


5 month returns

5-Months August low

Close Jan 8

Change Percent

Gold (Feb) $660 $880 +$220 +33%

HUI Index 300 458 +158 +52%

HGU ETF 16 32.20 +16 +100%!

*All in Rounded numbers

The HGU.TSX ETF clearly delivers superior returns

18

August low

Close Jan 10

Change Percent

iShares XGD $65 $90 +$25 +38%

streetTRACKS GLD

$64 $88 +$24 +37%

Central Gold Trust GTU

$24 $35 +$11 +45%

Horizons BetaPro HGU

$16 $33 +$17 +$106%

Gold Seasonal Trading Strategies HGU vs. Other Gold ETFs

5 month returns

19

Gold Seasonal Trading Strategies Specific Suggested trades

1. Buy HGU (Horizon Gold UP)• At Cycle Bottom (June to August)• Sell at Cycle Top (Feb to May)

2. Buy HGD (Horizon Gold DOWN)• At Cycle Top (Feb to May)• Sell Cycle Bottom (June to August)

Web Site: www.hbpetfs.com/hgu.asp

http://www.hbpetfs.com/hgu.asp

1 Profit when Gold rises or falls with ETFs Presented by: Louis Paquette Publisher, EGS .

Documents

Transcript of 1 Profit when Gold rises or falls with ETFs Presented by: Louis Paquette Publisher, EGS .