1 Preferred citation style for this presentation Axhausen, K.W. (2006) Next steps ?, MATSIM-T...

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1 Preferred citation style for this presentation Axhausen, K.W. (2006) Next steps ?, MATSIM-T Developer Workshop, Castasegna, October 2006.

Transcript of 1 Preferred citation style for this presentation Axhausen, K.W. (2006) Next steps ?, MATSIM-T...

Page 1: 1 Preferred citation style for this presentation Axhausen, K.W. (2006) Next steps ?, MATSIM-T Developer Workshop, Castasegna, October 2006.

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Preferred citation style for this presentation

Axhausen, K.W. (2006) Next steps ?, MATSIM-T Developer Workshop, Castasegna, October 2006.

Page 2: 1 Preferred citation style for this presentation Axhausen, K.W. (2006) Next steps ?, MATSIM-T Developer Workshop, Castasegna, October 2006.

Next steps ?

KW Axhausen with comments by K Nagel

IVTETHZürich

October 2006

Page 3: 1 Preferred citation style for this presentation Axhausen, K.W. (2006) Next steps ?, MATSIM-T Developer Workshop, Castasegna, October 2006.

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Conceptual starting point

Competition for slots on networks and in facilities

Activity scheduling

k(t,r,j)i,n

qi ≡ (t,r,j)i,n

Mental map

Page 4: 1 Preferred citation style for this presentation Axhausen, K.W. (2006) Next steps ?, MATSIM-T Developer Workshop, Castasegna, October 2006.

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Upcoming projects and possibilities at ETH

• KTI – Speeding it up (7 PY)• SNF – Influenca dissemination (1/2 PY)

• NFP 54 – Parking supply agent (decision by October)• ETH – Retail supply agent (decision by March)

• VW – Social networks & travel (second stage in preparation)

• BAK – Road pricing application (first talks)• Kanton – Uetlibergtunnel impact (first talks)

Page 5: 1 Preferred citation style for this presentation Axhausen, K.W. (2006) Next steps ?, MATSIM-T Developer Workshop, Castasegna, October 2006.

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Upcoming projects and opportunities at TU Berlin

• VOLVO (2PM left) -- dynamic road pricing

• COOPERS (10 PM) -- telematics scenarios

• Tsunami evacuation (3PJ) -- application pending

• VW – Social networks & travel (second stage in preparation) (see above)

Page 6: 1 Preferred citation style for this presentation Axhausen, K.W. (2006) Next steps ?, MATSIM-T Developer Workshop, Castasegna, October 2006.

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Other initiatives

• PTV project for an XML-kernel for data exchange between models (BMBV)

• PUMA, TU/E, CEMDAP, PB and CS in search of a DTA ?

Page 7: 1 Preferred citation style for this presentation Axhausen, K.W. (2006) Next steps ?, MATSIM-T Developer Workshop, Castasegna, October 2006.

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What do we have to do in the next 12 months ?

• Interface to TeleAtlas and to commerical databases

• Overnight run for 8 mio agents to steady state (with small parallel machine ?)

• Mode choice (planomat or brain ?)• Routers for public transport, cyclists, pedestrians• Better chains, durations and timings• Destination choice at parcel level

• Parameter estimation for planomat• Validation phase

Page 8: 1 Preferred citation style for this presentation Axhausen, K.W. (2006) Next steps ?, MATSIM-T Developer Workshop, Castasegna, October 2006.

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What do we have to do in the next 12 months ?

• Stabilize matsim on sourceforge• Regression testing• Moving towards better code robustness

• User interface?

• (Output database)• Analysis tools

Page 9: 1 Preferred citation style for this presentation Axhausen, K.W. (2006) Next steps ?, MATSIM-T Developer Workshop, Castasegna, October 2006.

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First ideas for the to do list

Mode choice (in the steady state context):

• Travel time surface for any x,y – pair and any time t for all modes (intermodal routes ?) (taste differences ?)

• Cost model parking; tolls• Cost model public transport

Speed: • Better initialisation of speeds (speed surfaces)• Reuse of travel time surfaces between scenarios• More intelligent replanning rates

• Scheduling module (GA, CMA, Ant optimisation, etc. ?)

Page 10: 1 Preferred citation style for this presentation Axhausen, K.W. (2006) Next steps ?, MATSIM-T Developer Workshop, Castasegna, October 2006.

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First ideas for the the to do list

Better chains as inputs:

• Larger range of chains (realistic trip rates)• Coding of chains also by duration class

• Improved (variation of) time windows

Validation:

• Quality of population synthesis• Traffic counts (and their comparability)• Use of the speed estimates from the FCD data

Page 11: 1 Preferred citation style for this presentation Axhausen, K.W. (2006) Next steps ?, MATSIM-T Developer Workshop, Castasegna, October 2006.

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Other goals

• Plug & play

• Quasi – commercialisation

• Behavioural richness

• Steady state and evolution

Page 12: 1 Preferred citation style for this presentation Axhausen, K.W. (2006) Next steps ?, MATSIM-T Developer Workshop, Castasegna, October 2006.

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Plug & play ?

Do we want to invest into

• XML – standards (e.g. RailML ?)

• Integration into OPUS • Interface to PUMA

• Interface to VISUM/VISSIM

• Interfaces to Tasha, Albatross, FAMOS, CEMDAP

Page 13: 1 Preferred citation style for this presentation Axhausen, K.W. (2006) Next steps ?, MATSIM-T Developer Workshop, Castasegna, October 2006.

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Quasi-commercialisation

Target: • Consultancy or research group with sound GIS/data

management capabilities• Some programming skills

Requirements: • Data conversion and imputation tools• Integration with BIOGEME and parameter estimation tools• Run management and data extraction/comparison• Visualisation and animation (Link to OpenEV or Saga)

• Better documentation, starter kit, www.matsim.org

Page 14: 1 Preferred citation style for this presentation Axhausen, K.W. (2006) Next steps ?, MATSIM-T Developer Workshop, Castasegna, October 2006.

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Behavioural richness

• Agenda generation (Habib & Miller)

• Household interaction• Shared trips• Timetable coordination

• Social network interactions • Location choice• Timetable coordination

• Capacity constraints at destinations

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Behavioural richness

• Intermodal routes

• Richer traffic flow model

• Traffic control systems• Parking and parking search

• Supply side agents• Parking• DRT• Shopping

Page 16: 1 Preferred citation style for this presentation Axhausen, K.W. (2006) Next steps ?, MATSIM-T Developer Workshop, Castasegna, October 2006.

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Evolution over multiple days (periods)

• Dynamic agenda generation• Seasonality

• Communication between agents

• Generating the initial mental map• Storing the mental map• Updating the mental map

Page 17: 1 Preferred citation style for this presentation Axhausen, K.W. (2006) Next steps ?, MATSIM-T Developer Workshop, Castasegna, October 2006.

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Priorities

• Share of effort for development and for interfaces ?

• What do we want to do when ?

• Who does what when ?

• How do we choose ?• How do we monitor progress ?