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ААppearance of a Base Reactor of the XXI ppearance of a Base Reactor of the XXI Century Following from Long-Term Century Following from Long-Term Tendencies Global RegionalizationTendencies Global Regionalization

O.Dobrocheev, P.AlekseevO.Dobrocheev, P.Alekseev

ААppearance of a Base Reactor of the XXI ppearance of a Base Reactor of the XXI Century Following from Long-Term Century Following from Long-Term Tendencies Global RegionalizationTendencies Global Regionalization

O.Dobrocheev, P.AlekseevO.Dobrocheev, P.Alekseev

NRCNRC««KurchatovKurchatov InstituteInstitute»»NRCNRC««KurchatovKurchatov InstituteInstitute»»

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The world got closer now to the limits of population and industrialization growth.

Forecasted by Forrester in 1970 years

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0

0,2

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1

1,2

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Forrester

Forr -2

Turb

Turb -2

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The mechanisms of the world economy stabilization - reduces the main source of population growth in rural areas deals with growth energy production and population per square in the city (S.P. Kapitza, 2012)

q ~ 1/L,

S=L²

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The regionalization - another mechanisms of the

world economy stabilization - 16 autonomous

geo-economic zones of "World Bank report 2009“

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What we have to do after these?

Thinking

But how thinking?We need new conceptionsOne of them is social turbulence hypothesis(it allow to describe of fluctuation and self-

organization processes of different types of systems)

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Hydrodynamic Similarity of Kolmogorov (Колмогоров 1962 )

Fluctuations spectrum of the energy of social and hydrodynamic flow is similar

Next steps of the hypothesis development 1978 – Synergy (Prigogine, Haken)

1989 – Theory of complexity (Per Bak, Kan Chen

1994 – Social turbulence (Baturin, Dobrocheev)

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The first principles of social turbulence 1. The behavior of very large systems (VLS) of particles (which are

usually part of a larger whole) can not be defined by active forces (causes ), but by the sustainability of the entire system of the same elements as a whole

2. The behavior VLS can not be defined in the exact coordinates, but only in heir fluctuations

3. The behavior VLS can be defined only from one point to another bifurcation (long cycle existence )

4. Thus knowledge of the laws of turbulent allows us to define not only one single direction of the system development, but a vector field of the most likely (stable) movements (Dr W. Lelek).

5. In this logic, the decision-maker is important! Without him\she, the solution (thinking) process is not complete

There are radically different from the mechanic and thermodynamic

The social turbulence laws 1. There are critical levels of size of the stable

system, described by an exponential law of Kuzmin – Zhirmunsky (1991)L ~ R exp (-r),

R is size of the whole system (channel radius, for example), r - degree

2. The Kolmogorov law for long wave period Т³~L²

3. Energy fluctuations spectrum of turbulenceE ~ (1- l/L)² (l/L)²/³l/L - the relative size of the fluctuations

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Energy fluctuations spectrum of turbulence(Доброчеев 1995)

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1

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0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1

Kolmogorov law

my hypothesis

E ~ (1- l/L)² (l/L)²/³

l/L

The relative size of the fluctuations l / L

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Frequency spectrum of the social turbulence length scale – L (size of the state), comparison theory and dates

0,1

1

10

1 10 100

Статистика

Теория

частота повторяемости

Россия

Китай, США, ...

f

friguency

Length

The first social turbulence consequence for the global economy wave

Long wave global economy and scientific concepts is defined from Kolmogorov law

ТGW/TUS~(LGW/LUS)²/³ ~(12/3)²/³

Kondratiev wave TUS ~ 60 years

Global long wave ТGW ~ 140 years

Long wave of new scientific concepts is about 140 years

1680-1710 - the dynamics of Newton,

1860 - thermodynamics of Boltzmann,

1980 – Synergy, 1990-2000 - theory of complexity, social turbulence.

Super long wave of base of world outlook is about 560=140x4

560 years B.C. - the Buddha,

0 year - the Christ,

560 year - Mohammed,

1680 - Newton

The long wave of the new base technologies is about 70=140/2

1. Steam engines transport - 1825 - 1896 2. Oil and gas industry - 1900 – 19703. Spacecraft - 1942 – 2012, 4. Well-known stages of the nuclear project 1943 - the first reactor, 1986 (43 years after

the beginning) - Chernobyl, 2011 (68 years after the start) - Fukushima

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The next (2) social turbulence consequence for the global economy

The asymptotic solution (2001 y.) of the structure of a sustainable global world economy l/L->1Size of the great power L = RЗемли/2=3200 km

(examples: U.S., China, Brazil, Canada)

Unit of the great powers N = (DЗемли/L)² = 16 This solution corresponds exactly to the new geo-

economic structure of the world of the N=16 units proposed in the Report of the World Bank in 2009

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Scheme of asymptotic solution of the structure of a sustainable global world

economy (Dobrocheev 2001)

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M. Parmelee, 1949 г.

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Dynamics of the political complexity of the world (N units of great powers)

1

10

1900 1950 2000 2050

Великие державы

Прогноз 2001

my forecast, 2001

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The next (3) social turbulence consequence

- decrease energy consumption per person

The regionalization of the global economy and energy L = RЗемли/2

should lead to a more than 2-times decrease in the density of social energyE ~ (L)²/³

and thus necessary physical energy

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Comparison of turbulent estimates E~(1- l/L)²( l/L)²/³

and Makarov Academician actual data give us

similar result E2050/ E2010 ~ 1/2,5World energy consumption per person

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

1900 1950 2000 2050

Мир

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The next (4) consequence Corridor for the natural and man-made evolution (system diameter from cycle production)

Embryonic

Spacecraft

Nuclear Reactor

Cycle, days

diameter

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The consequence of the turbulent law

of natural and man-made evolution

The size of the reactor zone (R)

R ~ E³/²

and a period of industrial production of a new reactor (T)

T ~ E

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Next (5) social turbulence consequence The turbulent nature of intellectual activity

The frequency spectrum of vibrations of the creative activity of Jack

London (points). Comparison with the Kolmogorov law (lines)

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10

100

0.01 0.1 1

Лондон Турб

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Similar solar activity and Tutchev (Тютчев) creative activity

Сопоставление динамики творчества Тютчева с динамикой солнечной активности

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20 25 30 35 40

Стихотворения

S

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New thinking principles are derived from the turbulent nature of intellectual activity ( (We need it for the project of power

systems stability) 1. A critical amount of background information is

described by an exponential law of critical levels of Kuzmin - Zhirmunsky

2. The highest speed of solutions takes place in a zone of high intellectual turbulence (highly sensitive to small external moderators of different nature)

3. The most stable (long term) solution of local problem should be found at the borders of the problem field (example, world economy for nuclear energy)

Conclusion

1. 2012 is the bifurcation point of nuclear energy. 2013 - virtual start a new nuclear project

2. The size of the XXI century reactor will be more than 4 - times decrease of the base reactor of the XX century.

3. It regulation will be based on new (turbulent) thinking principles

This work is a part of the interdisciplinary research conducted by the Kurchatov Institute

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Thank you for your attention

Oleg Dobrocheev

www. peremeny.ru