Post-Genomics and the Future of Human Societies: a Foresight ApproachExcerpts from DNA Analysis for Human Health in the Post-Genomic Era - An APEC-wide Technology Foresight StudyDr. Nares DamrongchaiPolicy ResearcherAPEC Center for Technology ForesightNational Science and Technology Development Agency, Thailand24 January 2004 Bangkok, Thailand

Background April 2003, Human Genome Project officially declared complete.But... Reaping the rewards and reducing the dangers of technological advances demands careful consideration of 2 dimensions. First, how various socio-economic environments lead to differences in the pace and direction of technological innovation and diffusion, and second, what the implications are of the uses and spread of new technologies for economy and societyOECD 1998 21st Century Technologies

Integration of Post-Genomics into the SocietyAdapted from David W. Beier, Life Sciences Innovation Value Chain, 2003.Post-Genomics ResearchHealth- careSystem Developmentof Productsand ServicesTranslationIntellectual property protectionCapital marketsTransparencyInternational standardsLegal and regulatory infrastructure ensures benefit to individuals and societyPUBLIC POLICYPRIVATE SECTORDevelopment of new technologiesBasic research at public and private academic institutionsEducation and trainingClinical trialManufacturing and marketing or distribution of products and servicesInsurersPharmaciesHospitalsMedical professionalsHuman populations and societies

APEC-wide Foresight Study on DNA Analysis for Human Health in the Post-Genomic EraProposing Economy: Thailand Co-sponsors: Canada; Japan; Philippines; Chinese Taipei and USAPeriod: mid 2002 to 2003

Project Roadmap

2002NOV2003APRMAYAUG2004JANOverviewPaperForesightSupportAndOrgani-zationPost-ForesightPosition PapersIssues PapersAPEC-wide Meetingin BangkokPreliminary findingsAPEC MinisterialMeeting, mid OCTCore Group Meeting3-4 APR, BKKWeb-based National SurveysISTWG MeetingFinal Report,DEC 2003

Technological Developments and New Research Approaches in Post-Genomics EraSNPs AnalysisMicroarray Bioinformatics Proteomics Pharmacogenomics Rational Drug Design Gene Therapy Population Genomics and Linkage Studies Genetic Profiling

CRITICAL FACTORS that influence the development and impact of genomics for human health in APEC region The success and failure of scientific and technology promises. This also includes the speed and cost involved in the development and application of the technology.

CRITICAL FACTORS that influence the development and impact of genomics for human health in APEC region Social influence. Each society may have similar or different attitudes based on social, ethnic, religion backgrounds as well as the interpretation of human right and human dignity issues. This depends on the structure and mechanism to educate the public, the open discussion and the mobilization of public attitudes.

CRITICAL FACTORS that influence the development and impact of genomics for human health in APEC region The effects or perception of impacts of genomics to societies and the environment. This is a combination of the benefit, risk, adverse effect, past-experience of the societies, cost and accessibility.

CRITICAL FACTORS that influence the development and impact of genomics for human health in APEC region Regulation of genomic research and their applications. These regulations can be based on safety, economic, or ethical reasons. For example, embryonic stem cells are regulated on the research end, and cloning on the application end.

CRITICAL FACTORS that influence the development and impact of genomics for human health in APEC region The demand of the genomics-related health products. This is related to the success and the varieties of products (risk screening, diagnostics, intervention or therapeutic tools as the results of genomic research).

CRITICAL FACTORS that influence the development and impact of genomics for human health in APEC region The genomics related business involvement. This include public policy to promote investment in genomics and the different business environment in each economy.

CRITICAL FACTORS that influence the development and impact of genomics for human health in APEC region Intellectual property management. In terms of protection of innovation and development as well as the accessibility and distribution of knowledge.

Uncertainties

Scenariosprosperitycrisis254625472548254925502551trendsstrategystrategystrategystrategystrategystrategy

Scenario buildingPresenting the draft

We discovered the secret of life"