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Population Growth and Housing in CaliforniaPopulation Growth and Housing in California

Hans JohnsonHans JohnsonPublic Policy Institute of CaliforniaPublic Policy Institute of California

johnson@ppic.orgjohnson@ppic.org

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OutlineOutline

Demographic determinants of housing Demographic determinants of housing demanddemand

Population changes for key groupsPopulation changes for key groups

Regional patternsRegional patterns

Public opinionPublic opinion

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Average Annual Population Change and Average Annual Population Change and New Housing Units by DecadeNew Housing Units by Decade

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s

0.0

0.7

1.3

2.0

2.7

3.3

4.0

Population change (thousands)New housing units (thousands)Ratio of population change to new housing units

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Average Annual Population Change and Average Annual Population Change and New Housing Units by DecadeNew Housing Units by Decade

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s

0.0

0.7

1.3

2.0

2.7

3.3

4.0

Population change (thousands)New housing units (thousands)Ratio of population change to new housing units

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Average Annual Population Change and Average Annual Population Change and New Housing Units by DecadeNew Housing Units by Decade

2.01.7

2.9

3.9

3.3

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s

0.0

0.7

1.3

2.0

2.7

3.3

4.0

Population changeNew housing unitsRatio of population change to new housing units

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Why the mismatch between population Why the mismatch between population growth and housing?growth and housing?

Insufficient supply of new housingInsufficient supply of new housing

Not all population growth is equal with Not all population growth is equal with respect to generating housing demand:respect to generating housing demand:

– Children do not form their own Children do not form their own householdshouseholds

– Young adults have low household Young adults have low household formation ratesformation rates

– Immigrants and Latinos tend to have Immigrants and Latinos tend to have higher family and household sizeshigher family and household sizes

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Householder rates vary by ageHouseholder rates vary by ageProbability of Being a Householder by Age, California 2001

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

50.0%

18-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 65-74 75+

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Householder rates vary Householder rates vary by nativity and ethnicityby nativity and ethnicity

30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55%

Total

U.S. bornForeign born

White U.S. bornWhite foreign born

Latino U.S. bornLatino foreign born

API U.S. bornAPI foreign born

African American

Age standardized householder rates among adults in 2000

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OutlineOutline

Demographic determinants of housing Demographic determinants of housing demanddemand

Population changes for key groupsPopulation changes for key groups

Regional patternsRegional patterns

Public opinionPublic opinion

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Absolute population growth Absolute population growth will be strong this decadewill be strong this decade

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

1980-1990 1990-2000 2000-2010 2010-2020

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%Absolute change (left axis, in thousands)Percentage change (right axis)

Historic and Projected Decennial Change in California’s PopulationHistoric and Projected Decennial Change in California’s Population

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Increase in adult population was much Increase in adult population was much lower in the 1990s than in the 1980s, but…lower in the 1990s than in the 1980s, but…

1,362

4,731

1,494

2,621

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

Children Adults

1980 to 1990

1990 to 2000

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……projections show strong growth in adult projections show strong growth in adult populations in the next two decadespopulations in the next two decades

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

Children Adults

1980 to 1990

1990 to 2000

2000 to 2010

2010 to 2020

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Growth in U.S.-born population alsoGrowth in U.S.-born population alsoslowed substantially, but…slowed substantially, but…

Population Growth in California: Change in Foreign Born and U.S. Born Populations (in thousands)

2,868

3,224

2,405

1,706

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

Foreign born U.S. born

1980 to 19901990 to 2000

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……second generation will reach prime second generation will reach prime household formation ageshousehold formation ages

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,0000-

4

5-9

10-

14

15-1

9

20-2

4

25-2

9

30-3

4

35-3

9

40-4

4

45-4

9

50-5

4

55-5

9

60-6

4

65-6

9

70-7

4

75-7

9

80+

Age

First

Second

Third+

Population by immigrant generation, 2000Population by immigrant generation, 2000

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OutlineOutline

Demographic determinants of housing Demographic determinants of housing demanddemand

Population changes for key groupsPopulation changes for key groups

Regional patternsRegional patterns

Public opinionPublic opinion

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Highest populationHighest populationgrowth rates in inland regionsgrowth rates in inland regions

1

35% or more20% to 35%Less than 20%

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Median Rents in Counties with Median Rents in Counties with High Rent BurdensHigh Rent Burdens

0 200 400 600 800 1000

California

Santa Cruz Santa Barbara

San Luis Obispo Los Angeles

Yolo Riverside

San Bernardino San Joaquin

Tuolumne Stanislaus

Lake Butte

Shasta Madera

Humboldt Fresno

Del Norte Kern

Imperial Yuba

Trinity Siskiyou

Source: PPIC tabulations of 2000 census; includes counties with at least 37 percent of renters paying at least 35 percent of income on rent

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California’s Most Crowded PlacesCalifornia’s Most Crowded PlacesPersons per household

Lost Hills CDP 5.60 Pajaro CDP 5.28 Las Lomas CDP 5.26 Chualar CDP 5.18 South San Jose Hills CDP 5.07 Mecca CDP 5.04 East Compton CDP 5.01 Cutler CDP 4.94 Richgrove CDP 4.85 Greenfield city 4.75 Coachella city 4.72 Lynwood city 4.70 London CDP 4.69 Castroville CDP 4.69 Kettleman City CDP 4.68 West Puente Valley CDP 4.67 San Joaquin city 4.66

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OutlineOutline

Demographic determinants of housing Demographic determinants of housing demanddemand

Population changes for key groupsPopulation changes for key groups

Regional patternsRegional patterns

Public opinionPublic opinion

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Percent who say issue is Percent who say issue is a “big problem” nowa “big problem” now

6763

44 4239

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Affordablehousing

Traffic Schools Jobs Air pollution

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Confidence in state government’sConfidence in state government’sability to plan for future growth is lowability to plan for future growth is low

a great deal12%

only some46%

very little31%

none at all9%

don't know2%

How much confidence do you have in the state government’sAbility to plan for the state’s future and growth?

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Percent who say the following problems Percent who say the following problems will get worse by 2025will get worse by 2025

8178

69

47 46

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Traffic Housing Air pollution Jobs Schools

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New Housing Units Authorized, 1963-2004New Housing Units Authorized, 1963-2004

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Units (thousands)Population change (thousands)

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Ratio of Population Change to Ratio of Population Change to New Housing Units Authorized, 1963-2004New Housing Units Authorized, 1963-2004

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003

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Population Change and Population Change and New Housing Units Authorized, 1963-2004New Housing Units Authorized, 1963-2004

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Units (thousands)Population change (thousands)