1

Outline of the balanced migration concept

April 2009

2

The UK’s population is 61 million today.

The Government forecasts it will hit 70 million in 2028.

70 per cent of this growth will be due to immigration.

3

This growth assumes net migration of 190,000 a year.

565860626466687072747678808284

2006 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051

High migration (250kp.a.)

Pricipal projection (190kp.a.)

Balanced Migration(estimates)

Natural change - nomigration

Source: Natural Change, High migration and Principal Projection from GAD (2006-based). Balanced migration projection derived from GAD principal and low migration projections

4

Migration is the single largest reason for additional household formation nationally…

Migration

More adults

More pensioners

More single households

38%19%

17%

25%

Source : Estimated from GAD 2006-based population projections and DCLG New Projections of households for England and the Regions to 2026.

5

Immigrants on work permits, not asylum seekers, are now the main source

Immigrants by categorySources: Work Permits: Migration Advisory Committee, skilled, shortages, sensible : Table 2.3 Work Permits plus First Permissions plus an estimate of 50% for dependants. Asylum: Hansard 12 November 2008, Column 1214WA Spouses: Control of Immigration: Statistical Summary 1997 - 2007; Table 2.6 (EEA Spouses excluded)

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

90 93 96 99 '02 '05 '08

Work Permits

Asylum

Spouses

6

Such large-scale immigration is a new phenomenon

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

25064

68

72

76

80

84

88

92

96

00

04

Net migration into England 1964-2006 ‘000’sSource: ONS – Parliamentary written answer WA91 -17.01.2005 and ONS International Migration Statistics November 2007

7

… is a matter of public concern…

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

74 78 80 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07

Source: MORI Political Monitor: What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today (spontaneous)? What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today (spontaneous)? Percentage saying Race relations/immigrants/immigration. (Figures mainly at April except for 74,77, 78 and 82 and Mar 05)

8

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

GDP growth Net migration

…and the recession will have only a temporary effect…

9

Balanced migration - in a nutshell

• Balanced migration would seek to bring the numbers of immigrants into line with the number of emigrants.

• The main change would be to control the number of non-EU citizens who are given the right to settle permanently in the UK.

10

What would NOT change

• Free movement of people in the European Union

• The acceptance of genuine asylum seekers

• The admission of foreign students

• Genuine marriages  

• The current Points Based system

11

Spouses and fiancé(e)s 50,000

(Currently 62,000)

Other dependants 10,000

Settlement quota for those who came

with a work permit (that is non-EU citizens) 20,000

Net migration from EU 15

(the recent average is 30,000) 30,000

Net migration from new EU members 30,000

----------

140,000

Net British emigration (latest year 2007) 96,000

----------

Total net migration (last year 237,000) 45,000

An outline of the numbers

12

Impact of Balanced Migration

• Economy– No change to current arrangements for EU. Nor for non-EU workers

who wish to work, not settle here– Employers will continue to be able to hire non-EU foreigners to work

for them for up to 4 years, so long as the employee holds a work permit

• Housing– New household formation would be reduced by 40 per cent

• Population– Stabilise the population of the UK at about 65 million by mid century,

otherwise it would approach 80 million in mid-century, according to the Government’s central forecast

13

Benefits

• Balances the need for a competitive economy and the costs of a rapidly growing population

• Provides, as the House of Commons Economics Committee recommended, a "reasoned target range for net immigration" to which immigration policies could be adjusted

• Reduces pressure on the environment, schools, transport and the NHS

• Encourages British industry and commerce to train British workers

• Improves the prospects for integrating newcomers to our society

• Reduces the drain of talented people from third world countries who need their skills more than we do.