1 OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION Cindi Kerschbaumer, OMEGA District Bret Allphin, Buckeye Hills...
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Transcript of 1 OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION Cindi Kerschbaumer, OMEGA District Bret Allphin, Buckeye Hills...
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OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION
• Cindi Kerschbaumer, OMEGA District
• Bret Allphin, Buckeye Hills District
• Mike Lloyd, OSU Extension Noble County
• Cindy Bond, OSU Extension Guernsey County
• Nancy Bowen Ellzey, OSU Extension
OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION
Building Sustainable Communities in Ohio’s Shale Region:
Leveraging Manufacturing Clusters and Local Assets with Strategic Planning
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OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION
Program Objectives
• Situation Overview
• EDA Project Overview
• Project Partners
• Scope of Work
• Timeline
• IMPLAN Economic Impact Analysis
OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION
Situation Overview
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OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION
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OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION
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OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION
Midstream infrastructure
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OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION
Midstream
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OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION
Diversification is Essential
• Focus on diversifying economy.
• Make investments that make community more attractive to locate
new businesses.
• Encourage small businesses, entrepreneurs, and innovation.
• Build Human Capital - High levels of human capital have been
strongly associated with high regional economic growth rates
(Simon, 1998).
OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION
EDA Project Overview
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OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION
Scope of Work
1. Advanced Industry Cluster Analysis
2. Industry Capacity Assessment
3. Asset Mapping
4. Sustainable Strategic Planning to Elevate and Expand CEDS
5. Develop Implementation Strategies
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OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION
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OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION
EDA Proposal Project Partners
• U.S. Department of Commerce - Economic Development Administration
• Ohio State University Extension Core Project Team
• OSU Extension Shale Working Group
• Regional Economic Development Organizations:
• Eastgate Regional Council of Governments
• Northeast Ohio Four County Regional Planning and Development Organization
• Ohio Mid-Eastern Governments Association
• Buckeye Hills-Hocking Valley Regional Development District
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OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION
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OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION
1) Advanced Industry Cluster Analysis
• The primary objective of the cluster analysis is to better understand
to what degree the regional economy changes as a result of shale
development, specifically level and type of employment, in addition
to sectorial changes within the economy. We will measure changes
using employer enterprise data that is accessed through the Center
for Human Resource Research (CHRR) Workforce Data Quality
Initiative (WDQI) restricted access database and public data sets
including the census and IMPLAN.
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OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION
2) Industry Capacity Assessment
• The overall goal of the industry capacity assessment is to acquire
specific data from businesses in the twenty-five county region
illustrating the strengths, assets, and supply chain supporting
manufacturing advancements related to the shale industry and to
determine how reliant the businesses are on continued shale
production in eastern Ohio.
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OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION
3) Asset Mapping
Regional assets that may be included in the mapping initiative include:
• Economic Data from the Advanced Cluster Analysis
• Results from Industry Capacity Assessment
• Population Demographics
• Education / R&D Institutions
• Financial Capital
• Physical Shale Infrastructure
• Shale Energy Development Activity
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OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION
4) Sustainable Strategic Planning to Elevate and Expand CEDS
1. Shale Development 101: Preparing your community for shale
development
2. Creating a Community Inventory
3. Economic Impacts of Shale Development
4. Social Impacts of Shale Development
5. Environmental Impacts of Shale Development
6. Bringing it all together – Sustainable Community Goals
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OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION
5) Develop Implementation Strategies
• A key strength in this proposal is the seamless
integration of economic research, analysis, and
sustainable strategic planning into the regional
economic development districts CEDS.
OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION
Economic Impact Analysis
Initial Findings
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OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION
Advanced Industry Cluster Analysis
Analyzing CHRR Data Finding industry concentrations
(location quotient analysis)Finding industry strengths
(shift share analysis)
Preparing CHRR DataStep 1: Organizing Step 2: Aggregating
Accessing Data SourcesIMPLAN CHRR
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OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION
What Will we Measure with IMPLAN?
IMPLAN is an input/output economic model that can measure economic change (economic and demographic) based on industry (shale) contribution over time
We will measure economic indicators such as value added, total output and cluster concentration
We will also measure demographic indicators including population and household income
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OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION
IMPLAN and Average Household Income
Average household income in IMPLAN measures for:• Government retirement benefits• Transfer payments including social security• Employer paid benefits (cash or non-cash)• Investment income including royalties• Rental income• Non-cash payments such as subsidized or public housing
Vs. census household income which measures for:• Income received directly by individuals and reported on long form.
OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION
OMEGA District
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OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION
OMEGA District Employment Trends (2008-2012)
Source: IMPLAN
2008 2010 2012
Employment 261220 265233 272212
255,000
257,000
259,000
261,000
263,000
265,000
267,000
269,000
271,000
273,000
OMEGA District Employment Trends
Employment
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OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION
OMEGA District Population Trends (2008-2012)
Source: IMPLAN
2008 2010 2012
Population 582238 580178 586831
577,000
579,000
581,000
583,000
585,000
587,000
OMEGA District Population Trends
Population
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OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION
OMEGA District Household Income Trends (2008-2012)
Source: IMPLAN
2008 2010 2012
Household Income 70195 73014 73646
$68,500
$69,500
$70,500
$71,500
$72,500
$73,500
OMEGA District Avg. Household Income Trends
Household Income
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OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION
OMEGA Top Ten Sectors by Employment and Employment Change (2008-2012)
Sector2008
Employment2012
Employment%
Change
Food and drinking places 16,919 17,983 5.9%
State & local government (education) 16,067 14,057 -14.3%
State & local government (non-education) 12,077 13,594 11.2%
Private hospitals 9,356 9,863 5.1%
Nursing and residential care facilities 8,524 8,892 5.5%
Wholesale trade 8,381 8,370 -.1%
Retail and general merchandise 7,074 6,781 -4.3%
Civic, social, professionals and similar orgs 6,240 6,134 -1.7%
Offices of physicians, dentists and other health 6,118 6,732 9.1%
Construction of new nonresidential structures 5,665 6,127 2.3%
Source: IMPLAN
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OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION
OMEGA 2012 Industry Clusters
Industry EmploymentConcentration
(LQ)
Primary Metal Mfg 2,178 7.73
Glass & Ceramics 906 3.25
Mining 742 2.48
Forest & Wood Products 4,422 2.46
Fabricated Metal Product Mfg 4,369 2.38
Chemicals & Chemical Based Products 6,301 2.27
Machinery Mfg 2,419 2.25
Electrical Equipment, Appliance & Component Mfg 510 1.74
Advanced Materials 10,715 1.71
Manufacturing Supercluster 10,528 1.45
Source: Statsamerica.org
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OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION
Summary• OMEGA District is on an upward trajectory in terms of population,
employment and household income growth.
• The population growth rate, 6,650 people between 2010-2012, is especially significant.
• OMEGA is comprises almost 85% of producing wells, with over half of those in Carroll County alone.
• With a heavy concentration of producing wells in the OMEGA District, it is leading the way to demonstrate indicators as a result of shale development.
Source: IMPLAN
OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION
Buckeye Hills/Hocking Hills District
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OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION
BH/HH District Employment Trends (2008-2012)
Source: IMPLAN
2008 2010 2012
Employment 95230 102982 100240
91,000
93,000
95,000
97,000
99,000
101,000
103,000
BH/HH District Employment Trends
Employment
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OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION
BH/HH District Population Trends (2008-2012)
Source: IMPLAN
2008
2010
2012
250,500251,500252,500253,500254,500255,500256,500257,500258,500259,500
2008 2010 2012
Population 254824 253046 258699
BH/HH District Population Trends
Population
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OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION
BH/HH District Household Income Trends (2008-2012)
Source: IMPLAN
2008
2010
2012
$65,500 $66,500 $67,500 $68,500 $69,500 $70,500
2008 2010 2012
Household Income 67454 70678 67617
Household Income
Household Income
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OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION
BH/HH Top Ten Sectors by Employment and Employment Change (2008-2012)
Sector2008
Employment2012 Employment %
Change
State & local government (education) 14,262 12,251 -16.4%
Food and drinking places 6,188 6,873 10%
State & local government (non-education) 4,615 7,188 35.8%
Nursing and residential care facilities 3,046 3,429 11.2%
Civic, social, professionals and similar orgs 2,888 2,693 -7.2%
Offices of physicians, dentists and other health 2,132 2,520 15.4%
Construction of new nonresidential structures 1,924 2,100 8.4%
Private household operations 2,062 Dropped from top ten N/A
Private hospitals 2,016 Dropped from top ten N/A
Transport by truck Not on list in 08 1,850 N/A
Source: IMPLAN
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OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION
BH/HH 2012 Industry Clusters
Industry EmploymentConcentration
(LQ)
Primary Metal Mfg 260 5.95
Glass & Ceramics 506 4.91
Chemicals & Chemical Based Products 2,869 2.91
Mining 199 2.07
Education & Knowledge Creation 4,825 1.86
Transportation Equipment Mfg 78 1.46
Fabricated metal Product Mfg 807 1.31
Forest & Wood Products 742 1.16
Biomedical/Biotechnical 8,445 1.12
Machinery Mfg 400 1.01
Source: Statsamerica.org
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OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION
Summary• Changes are just beginning to emerge in the BH/HH District, but
not all in the positive direction.
• Household income dropped along with employment between 2010-2012, an indicator that may be temporary requiring further investigation.
• A new sector to the top ten, transport by truck, and significantly increased population figures – up almost 6,000 between 2010-2012 help to tell the story of change.
• Number of producing wells currently at 41 vs. 324 in OMEGA, but with 153 permits issued (76 in Noble and 64 in Monroe counties), the region’s shale industry is taking flight.
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OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION
What’s Next?
Continue to analyze data to measure economic changes that occur using IMPLAN and CHRR data sets, in addition to new data being released
Round out list of indicators to include socio-economic changes Housing, environmental, education, public services, crime, etc.
Combine IMPLAN results with socio-economic changes and survey research to “tell the story”
Review results annually and at five year intervals
OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION
Thank You!