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1
New Entrants to Scottish Agriculture
The State of Play
Douglas Bell
Senior Agricultural Policy Consultant
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Content
• Background• Scottish Government’s “New Entrants to
Farming” programme
2
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Output Increasing
3
24%
10%
10%7%
3%1%
16%
8%
2%9%
4%6%
Beef
Dairy
Sheep & Wool
Poultry & Eggs
Pigs
Other Livestock
Cereals
Potatoes
Other Crops
Horticulture
Other Agric.
Non-Agric.
£2.74 billion(ex subs)
Source: Scottish Government
Scottish Agricultural Output 2011
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Incomes Rising
4
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
1993/94 1996/97 1999/00 2002/03 2005/06 2008/09
(£)
Net Farm Income
Farm Business Income
Source: Scottish Government
Trends in Farm Incomes (Current Prices)
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Employment Levels Stabilised
5
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000 19
8219
8419
8619
8819
9019
9219
9419
9619
9820
0020
0220
0420
0620
0820
10
Full-time
Part-time
Casual and Seasonal
Total
Source: Scottish Government
Scottish Farming – Total Workforce
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Young People in Agriculture
• Student numbers increasing
• 80 clubs throughout Scotland
6
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7
Is there a new entrant problem?
Scottish agriculture – a vibrant diverse industry!
X X
1 652 3 4 7 8 9 10
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Occupiers, Spouses & Regular Employees
8
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
3500019
8219
8419
8619
8819
9019
9219
9419
9619
9820
0020
0220
0420
0620
0820
10
Occupiers
Spouses
Hired (Full-time)
Family/Business Partners (Full-time)
Hired (Part-time)
Family/Business Partners (Part-time)
Source: Scottish Government
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Age of Occupiers & Spouses (2011)
9Source: Scottish Government
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Causes
The big “C” issues
10
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The Big “C” Issues
• Cash
• CAP
11
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FBI Per Unpaid FTE 2010/11
12
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
Specialist Sheep (LFA)
Specialist Beef (LFA)
Cattle & Sheep (LFA)
Cereals General Cropping
Dairy Lowland Cattle & Sheep
Mixed All Farm Types
£
Source: Scottish Government
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FBI Per Unpaid FTE 2010/11
13
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
Specialist Sheep (LFA)
Specialist Beef (LFA)
Cattle & Sheep (LFA)
Cereals General Cropping
Dairy Lowland Cattle & Sheep
Mixed All Farm Types
£
FBI/FTE Direct Support/FTE
Source: Scottish Government
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The Big “C” Issues
• Cash
• CAP
• Competition
14
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The Big “C” Issues
• Cash
• CAP
• Competition
• Capital & Collateral
15
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Indicative Levels of Tenants Capital
• Lowland cattle & sheep - £2,000/ha
• Cereals - £1,500/ha
• Dairy - £3,000/ha
• Hill sheep - £125/ewe
16
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The Big “C” Issues
• Cash
• CAP
• Competition
• Capital & Collateral
• Conspiracy
17
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The Big “C” Issues
• Cash
• CAP
• Competition
• Capital & Collateral
• Confidence
18
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New Entrants to Farming Programme
20
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New Entrants to Farming Programme
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New Entrants to Farming Programme
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SG New Entrants to Farming Programme
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www.sac.ac.uk/newentrants
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25This presentation was funded by the Scottish Government as part of its Public Good Veterinary and Advisory Services