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Transcript of 1 NCEP Production Suite Review: Land-Hydrology at NCEP Michael Ek and the EMC Land-Hydrology Team...
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NCEP Production Suite Review:Land-Hydrology at NCEP
Michael Ek and the EMC Land-Hydrology TeamEnvironmental Modeling Center (EMC)
National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) NOAA/NWS
NCEP Production Suite Review, 6-8 December 2011NOAA Science Center, Camp Springs, Maryland
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Land model role: Energy Budget• Noah land model closes the surface energy budget, & provides surface boundary conditions to NCEP models.
seasonal storage
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• Noah land model closes the surface water budget, & provides surface boundary conditions to NCEP models.
Land model role: Hydrological Cycle
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• Noah model has realistic land physics & is coupled with NCEP short-range NAM, medium-range GFS, and seasonal CFS, and run “uncoupled”, i.e. NLDAS, and GLDAS (in Climate Forecast System).
NCEP-NCAR unified Noahland-
surface model
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Uncoupled“NLDAS”(drought)
Air Quality
WRF NMM/ARWWorkstation WRF
WRF: ARW, NMMETA, RSM
Satellites99.9%
Regional NAMWRF NMM
(including NARR)
Hurricane GFDLHWRF
GlobalForecastSystem
Dispersion
ARL/HYSPLIT
Forecast
Severe Weather
Rapid Updatefor Aviation (ARW-based)
ClimateCFS
1.7B Obs/Day
Short-RangeEnsemble Forecast
Noah Land Model Connections in NOAA’s NWS Model Production Suite
MOM32-Way Coupled Oceans
HYCOM
WaveWatch III
NAM/CMAQ
Regional DataAssimilation
Global DataAssimilation
North American Ensemble Forecast System
GFS, Canadian Global Model
NOAH Land Surface Model
NCEP-NCAR unified
Land model validation• Low-level observations (e.g. 2-m temperature &
humidity, 10-m winds); 10+ year data set.
• Additionally: upper air scores, precipitation threat & bias scores, specific flux site validation.www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/research/nearsfc/nearsfc.verf.html
July monthly diurnal 10-m wind (m/s)
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0 24 48 72hr
obs: solid, NAM: short-dash, GFS: long-dash
eastwest 2010
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0 24 48 72hr
2011
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5
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4
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4
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00Z Forecast Cycle
2011: NMMB & New Land Data Set
Land-use type(1-km, MODIS)
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• New land-use (vegetation type) data set based on MODIS used by Noah land model in NAM.
• Better surface representation yields better surface fluxes and temperature forecasts in NAM.
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2011: CFSv2 and Land• Noah replaced OSU land model in CFS (from GFS).
• Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS): Daily update of land states via uncoupled Noah driven by CFS assimilation cycle atmospheric forcing and blended observations+model precipitation.
• Reasonable soil moisture climatology, and energy & water budgets closure.
• Reanalysis as initial conditions for reforecasts.
May Soil Moisture Climatology from 30-year NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), spun up from Noah land model coupled with CFS.
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2012: Extend GFS upgrade to NAM• Surface layer (surface roughness) modifications in
GFS (Xubin Zeng et al, Univ. Arizona) in 2010.
Operational:Cold bias in skin
temperature (left), warm bias
in air temperature (e.g. 48-hr 850mb
fcst, right).
New roughness:Improved skin temperature
(left), air temperature
(right).
00z08Jul2008-00z10Nov2008GFS-GOES, 3-day mean: 1-3July2007
2012: North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS)
NLDAS four-model ensemble monthly soil moisture anomaly
July 30-year climo. July 1988 (drought) July 1993 (flood)
•Noah, SAC, VIC, Mosaic land models run uncoupled, driven by CPC observed precipitation and atmos. forcing from NCEP North American Regional Climate Data Assimilation System; output: 1/8-deg. land & soil states, surface fluxes, runoff & streamflow.
• Land model runs provide a 30-year climatology.•Anomalies used for drought monitoring; supports
National Integrated Drought Information System.www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/nldas
July 2011
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2012: New land data sets
Green Vegetation Frac. (AVHRR)
Leaf Area Index (MODIS)
June 2007LAI
GVF
• Near realtime greenness frac.• LAI (Leaf Area
Index) = veg. density
• Better surface representation should yield better surface fluxes and T, RH, wind forecasts.• Update NAM, GFS, and other NCEP systems.
• MODIS snow-free albedo
• MODIS max snow albedo
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Future Land Model/Related Upgrades• Important for high-res (~downscaling): Lake model
& climatologies in NAM then GFS; Fire/burned area (account for surface changes); cycle land in future.
• Assimilation of surface quantities, e.g. soil moisture, surface temperature, snowpack, vegetation fraction.
• Surface layer turbulent mixing in stable conditions: affects surface fluxes and night-time temperatures.
• Under NEMS, unify Noah model in NCEP systems.
• River routing/streamflow (discharge to oceans).
• New Noah land model (coop. with NCAR/others): 3-layer snowpack, explicit canopy, dynamic vegetation, CO2-based transpiration, ground-water, air quality, ecosystems & biogeochemical cycles.
13Physics “Wheel of Pain”
Questions?