1 MRC-RFMMC TOWARDS A NEW FLOOD FORECASTING SYSTEM FOR THE LOWER MEKONG RIVER BASIN 4 th...
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Transcript of 1 MRC-RFMMC TOWARDS A NEW FLOOD FORECASTING SYSTEM FOR THE LOWER MEKONG RIVER BASIN 4 th...
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MRC-RFMMCMRC-RFMMC
TOWARDS A NEW FLOOD FORECASTING SYSTEM TOWARDS A NEW FLOOD FORECASTING SYSTEM FOR THE LOWER MEKONG RIVER BASINFOR THE LOWER MEKONG RIVER BASIN
44thth International Symposium on Flood Defense International Symposium on Flood DefenseToronto, 7 May 2008Toronto, 7 May 2008
MRC-RFMMCMRC-RFMMC
TOWARDS A NEW FLOOD FORECASTING SYSTEM TOWARDS A NEW FLOOD FORECASTING SYSTEM FOR THE LOWER MEKONG RIVER BASINFOR THE LOWER MEKONG RIVER BASIN
44thth International Symposium on Flood Defense International Symposium on Flood DefenseToronto, 7 May 2008Toronto, 7 May 2008
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Introduction
Data
People
Model
IntroductionIntroduction Mekong River Commission
– Formed in 1995
– Cambodia, Lao PDR, Thailand and Viet Nam
– Dialogue partners: China and Myanmar
Objectives– Joint management shared water resources
– Development of economic potential of the river
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Introduction
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IntroductionIntroduction Devastating floods in 2000, 2001, 2002
Between 1 and 8 million people affected
Flood Management and Mitigation Programme agreed upon
Funding about US $ 20 million
Operational since 2005
Objectives– Improve flood forecasts and flood data exchange
– Develop technical standards and training
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Introduction
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IntroductionIntroduction
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“The Flood Management and Mitigation Programme (FMMP) aims to prevent, minimise or mitigate people’s suffering and economic losses due to floods, while preserving the environmental benefits of floods”
“The Regional Flood Management and Mitigation Centre in Phnom Penh is to provide timely and reliable flood forecasts for the Mekong mainstream.”
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Introduction
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IntroductionIntroduction RFMMC flood forecasting at present
– Short term 1-5 day forecasts
– 23 locations along Mekong River
– SSARR model
– Published at website
– Distributed by email
– Mandate is Flood ForecastSystem
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Introduction
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IntroductionIntroduction The objective is to produce a flood forecast.
For that we need– data
– people
– models
– system including procedures
And this may be the order of importance!
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Data RequirementsData Requirements Water level data
– Near real time water level main stream
– Near real time water level main tributaries
Rainfall Data– WMO GTS rainfall data
– Existing near real time rainfall data at agencies
– Extension of network of near real time rainfall stations
Satellite Rainfall Estimates– Satellite Rainfall Estimates
– Weather Model Forecasts
Introduction
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Synoptic Synoptic StationsStations
Introduction
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Satellite Satellite Rainfall Rainfall EstimateEstimate
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Rain Gauge NetworkRain Gauge Network Network Coverage
– Average coverage good in Thailand and Viet Nam
– Spatial distribution may need improvement
– Both are insufficient in Cambodia and Lao PDR
Operation and Maintenance– Thailand and Viet Nam need little support
– Cambodia and Laos face problems
– Historical stations need attention
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Analysis CambodiaAnalysis Cambodia Department of Hydrology and River Works,
Ministry of Water Resources and Meteorology– Presently 5 rainfall stations reported
– After upgrade 9
Department of Meteorology (MOWRAM)– Presently 21 rainfall stations near real time
– After upgrade 35
– First phase (upgrade of 8 stations) completed
– Second phase (6 new stations) almost complete
M-HYCOS (telemetry)– 7 stations proposed for upgrade
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Analysis Lao PDRAnalysis Lao PDR Department of Meteorology and Hydrology,
Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry– Presently 33 rainfall stations near real time
– After upgrade 40-44
– After extension network up to 50
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Analysis explained using map
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Analysis explained using map
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Thailand, Viet NamThailand, Viet Nam In Thailand the coverage of near real time rainfall
stations within the LMB is very good
– No upgrade or new stations needed (?)
– No new stations needed
– The main issue is timely data transmission
In Viet Nam some new stations may be needed on the borders of the LMB
– No upgrade of stations needed (?)
– The main issue is timely data transmission
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Introduction
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Data AgreementsData Agreements Much effort went into improving data delivery
– MoU Cambodia and Lao PDR
– Contracts with hydro-met agencies
– Negotiations with other two countries progressing well
Expected:– Marked improvement in data availability by 2009
Data availability and quality will need constant attention
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Introduction
Data
People
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PeoplePeople The people ensure the quality of the flood
forecast– Training in using modeling tools
– On the job training building the models
– Training communication tools
– Training FEWS – modeling environment
Refresher training and building of experience by working with the models and FEWS will never stop
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Introduction
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Model
ModelsModels The models are a tool to support the flood
forecaster
In consultation with member states: implement URBS as a trial model (December 2006)
URBS will eventually be one of a suite of different models at the RFMMC
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URBSURBS What is URBS
– Conceptual hydrological flood routing
– Parameter-poor
– Robust operational
– Input primarily rainfall data
Advantages– Lack of data from one station or one data supplier
permitted
– Minimum set of rainfall data from WMO-GTS and Satellite Rainfall Estimate is always available
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URBSURBS URBS has the following characteristics
– Semi-distributed non-linear network model
– Combines rainfall-runoff and runoff-routing
– Models spatial & temporal variability of rainfall
– Proven record in large river basins
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ImplementationImplementation First mission March 2007:
– Training of staff
– Work planning
– Project management
Follow up: building of URBS models– Flood Centre staff continuously involved
– First trial version ready by August 2007
– Now ready for parallel testing 2008 season
A lot has been done in a very short time, on a relatively low budget – proof of concept
The new model is still untested in forecast mode
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CatchmentSIMCatchmentSIM GIS topographic parameterisation & hydrologic
analysis software
Automatically delineates watersheds & sub- catchments
Includes a flexible macro language to fully couple the output with any hydrologic model
Uses publicly available digital elevation data from the NASA Shuttle Radar Topography Mission
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• Medium sized tributary
• Located in the central part of Lao PDR
• Joins the main river 55km downstream of Thakhek
• Catchment area of 9,300km2
• Mountainous in the east and flood plain in the west
Se Bang FaiSe Bang FaiIntroduction
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• Flow at any location• Height at any location with a H-Q relationship
Se Bang FaiSe Bang FaiIntroduction
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Se Bang FaiSe Bang FaiIntroduction
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Model complexModel complex 50 models developed
Stage 1 upstream of Kratie– 40 models
Stage 2 downstream of Kratie– 10 models
Special module for Tonle Sap / Great Lake system
Ultimately linked to hydrodynamic models
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Introduction
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FEWSFEWS
Delft FEWS selected– Open system, any model can be added
– No tie-in with one type of model supplier
– Very flexible – configuration to requirements user
– User-friendly interface
– No comparable alternatives
– Used worldwide by major national and international organizations
– Software free – license conditions apply
– Both stand-alone and on-line distributed
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Introduction
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ImplementationImplementation First FEWS missions in March 2008
– Building adapter FEWS-URBS
– Implementation data inputs
– RFMMC staff involved (continuity)
– June 2008: first implementation expected
– 2008 flood season: testing, parallel operation
The Mekong FEWS is a work in progress, only the first phase will be ready for the 2008 flood season
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SystemSystem
screenshot MEKONG FEWS
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Introduction
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ProceduresProcedures
First mission August 2007– Documenting present situation
– Draft report September 2007
– And a manual of the present FFS
Second mission March 2008– Preparation to create two documents:
1. Policy document (in consultation)
2. Operational document (internal)
– Implementation for the 2008 flood season
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ConclusionsConclusions Data
– Upgrade existing historical rain gauge stations– Extend existing rain gauge station network– Use mobile phone – SMS– Use manual rain gauges– Low tech, low budget, low O&M– Complementary to AHNIP and M-HYCOS– Secure direct access to AHNIP and M-HYCOS– Secure GTS connection for RFMMC
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ConclusionsConclusions Models
– URBS model selected as trial flood forecasting model
– Basic and advanced training of staff completed
– Program to develop & calibrate 50 models completed (March 2009)
– Overall Mekong model set up and working
– First model of Cambodian floodplain and Great Lake system operational
– Use during 2008 flood season with satellite rainfall and forecasts as inputs
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FutureFuture Data
– Conclude all MoU’s and Agreements
– Conclude support contracts with involved Agencies
– Start working with the Agencies
People– RFMMC staff involved in model maintenance and
further implementation of FEWS
– Regular refresher and advanced training
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FutureFuture Models
– Ongoing improvement of the URBS Mekong models
– Study into desirability hydrodynamic modeling
– Implementation of other models
System– Ongoing improvement of FEWS
– Implementation of other data sources
– Phase II: on-line distributed system (now stand-alone system)
– Use, testing and improvement of Operational Procedures
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Thank you very much for your Thank you very much for your attention !attention !
Acknowledgments:
Terry Malone – SunWater, Australia
Marco Hartman, HKV Consultants, Netherlands
Astrid Janssen, DELTARES, Netherlands
And of course: the RFMMC Team