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![Page 1: 1 Models & policy making Experiences from the CCC Mike Thompson Head of Carbon Budgets 8 th December 2014 @theCCCuk @Mike_Thommo.](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062717/56649e215503460f94b0df21/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
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Models & policy makingExperiences from the CCC
Mike ThompsonHead of Carbon Budgets
www.theccc.org.uk
8th December 2014
@theCCCuk@Mike_Thommo
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1. The Committee on Climate Change
2. Use of models in the CCC
3. Some case studiesa) Climate science and the climate objectiveb) 2050 modellingc) The Renewable Energy Review
4. Reflections
Contents
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Climate Change Act changed the terms of the debate in the UK
Climate change Carbon budgets
• Long-term• Global• Uncertain
• Near-term• Local• Definite
Whether to cut emissions?
How to cut emissions?
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The Climate Change Act and the CCC
The Climate Change Act
A statutory 2050 target for emissions reduction (at least -80% v 1990)
Legally-binding 5-year ‘carbon budgets’
Requirement to develop policies and proposals to meet budgets
Establishes the CCC as independent advisor
The Committee on Climate Change
How fast? Level of 2050 target and carbon budgets
How? Sectoral contributions, technologies and policy options
Monitoring. Are we on track to meet budgets? Lord Deben, Chairman
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Lord Deben
Professor Jim Skea
Professor Sir Brian Hoskins
Professor Dame Julia King
Professor Samuel Fankhauser
Lord Robert May
Lord John Krebs
Paul Johnson
Plus ~25 full-time secretariat, mostly analysts
Contract out specialist research
CCC appointed to recommend targets and monitor progress – an expert group, not an interest group
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Driving Change and the Climate Change Act
Requirement that Government brings forward policies
Committee on Climate Change to monitor progress and suggest
changes
Carbon budgets
2050 Emissions Target
A toolkit
A monitoringframework
A pathway
A goal1
2
3
4
The Climate Change Act 2008Analysis
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1. The Committee on Climate Change
2. Use of models in the CCC
3. Some case studiesa) Climate science and the climate objectiveb) 2050 modellingc) The Renewable Energy Review
4. Reflections
Contents
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The question CCC faces:What is the right level for the carbon budgets as stepping stones to the 2050 target?
20002003
20062009
20122015
20182021
20242027
20302033
20362039
20422045
20482051
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700Legislated budgets
2050 target (inc. IAS)
UK Kyoto GHG emissions
MtC
O2e
/yr
Carbon budgets: The cost-effective path to the 2050
target
UK 2050 target:80% below 1990 levels
(75% below 2010)
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Strong evidence-based underpinning…
Climate science
International/EU
2050 Target Carbon budgetsPo
wer
Build
ings
Indu
stry
Tran
spor
t
Agric
ultu
re
Was
te &
F-
gase
s
Secu
rity
of
supp
ly
Fuel
pov
erty
Com
petiti
vene
ss
Fisc
al im
pact
s
Econ
omic
im
pact
s
Sectors: scenarios, costs, required policy
Air q
ualit
y &
he
alth
Budget impacts
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…that is transparent to all interested stakeholders…
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…has led to widespread business support
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What does CCC use energy system models for?
Use energy system models in a ‘what if’ framework, primarily for insights
plus...
Quantitative evidence also required to support insights
however...
Important for insights to drive selection of evidence to support recommendations rather than vice-versa
i.e. evidence-based policy not policy-based evidence
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The use of energy system models is not easy, and is open to misinterpretation / abuse
It is crucial to understand a particular model’s strengths and weaknesses
– reliability of insights depends on knowing whether the choices facing the model robustly reflect those in reality
Judgements around uncertainty and decision making always need human input, rather than simply relying directly on a model’s results
– there are various types of uncertainty – some can be incorporated into a modelling framework, some cannot
– decisions in reality, whether by companies or individuals, are rarely made according purely to least-cost optimisation principles
Using a model to provide evidence requires good judgement and integrity. How a model is set up can have a large effect on the results it produces.
– it is acceptable to set up a run to represent quantitatively an off-model insight
– it is unacceptable to set up a run so that it just tells you what you told it (and then use that as evidence!)
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A single graph can provide multiple insights, if you understand the system it represents (example from UCL global modelling in 2012)
Coal-to-gas switch is cheaper in a low gas price world
Switching from unabated gas to low-carbon more expensive in a
low gas price world
Low gas price makes gas CCS more cost-effective and lowers the cost of
electrifying heat/transport
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1. The Committee on Climate Change
2. Use of models in the CCC
3. Some case studiesa) Climate science and the climate objectiveb) 2050 modellingc) The Renewable Energy Review
4. Reflections
Contents
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Modelling climate from global emissions
Global emissions
Climate modelling with Met Office• MAGICC• ~700 runs per
emissions trajectory
Global temperatures
Climate parameter pdfs• Climate sensitivity• Ocean mixing rate• Carbon cycle feedback
strength
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Projections of climate change risks
Source: IPCC WG2 AR4
• No obvious, definitive maximum ΔT to avoid
• Now: some impacts already apparent (climate extremes, glacier loss, human mortality)
• Beyond ~2°C: key damages become globally prevalent (species loss, crop productivity, ice melt)
• Beyond ~4°C: likely to exceed adaptive capacity of many systems; few analogues in recent geological history
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CCC decision rule
Decision rule• Median projected
temperature increase by 2100 must be close to 2°C above pre-industrial levels
• Keep probability of a 4°C increase very low (e.g. 1%)
Risk of impacts• 2°C above pre-industrial by 2100
will exacerbate current impacts and trigger regional problems
• Beyond 4°C many systems will not be able to adapt
Committed change• Emissions trends and uncertainty
in climate projections make it very difficult to rule out a 2°C increase with 100% confidence
Science guides the discussion, but decision is ultimately a (difficult) value judgment
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Considerations in the 2050 target
Climate Objective• Keep median (i.e. 50%) estimate of
ΔT by 2100 close to 2°C over pre-industrial
• Keep risk of 4°C to very low levels (e.g. 1%)
UK 2050 legislated target• UK ~10tCO2e per capita in 1990• => at least 80% reduction below
1990 levels• All Kyoto GHG sources, inc.
international aviation & shipping
Projections of climate change risks
Possible future global emissions pathways
Global paths to meet the climate objective• Peak by ~2020, halve (~20GtCO2e) by 2050
Share of effort among nations• Various methods, but hard to envisage a
deal where UK has above average emissions per person
• ~2tCO2e per capita in 2050
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1. The Committee on Climate Change
2. Use of models in the CCC
3. Some case studiesa) Climate science and the climate objectiveb) 2050 modellingc) The Renewable Energy Review
4. Reflections
Contents
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2010 emissions
International aviation & shipping
UK non-CO2 GHGs
Other CO2
Industry (heat & industrial processes)
Residential & commercial heating
Domestic transport
Electricity generation
2050 objective
160 MtCO2e
628 MtCO2e
75% cut (= 80% vs.
1990)
The UK 2050 challenge – some initial insights are possible before any modelling begins
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Modelling of global carbon market suggests should not rely on imported carbon credits in the long-term
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Modelling of bioenergy resource suggests it can only be a small part of the solution to reducing emissions
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Energy system models help develop potential pathways to 2050
Least-cost optimisation model that runs over the period to 2050 (in 5-year time steps), which falls somewhere between ‘top-down’ and ‘bottom-up’ modelling
– technology-rich, but not as detailed /sophisticated as sector-specific models
– allows imposition of overall CO2 emissions constraints, either as a trajectory or cumulative budget
– consistent and flexible ‘what-if’ framework, emphasis on sensitivity and uncertainty analysis
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Electricity
Buildings
Transport
Industry
Non-CO2
Aviation & shipping
Further expansion and decarbonise mid-merit/peak
Low-carbon electrified heatCommercial Residential Hard-to-treat
Roll out low-carbon vehicles to fleet
More on-farm measures, F-gases, reduce waste and diet impact?
Efficiency
Decarbonise baseload
EV penetration up;Early H2 adoptionEfficiency
CCS, electrification and other fuel switching? Product substitution?Efficiency
Efficiency on farms, divert waste from landfill
Operational measures, new plane/ship efficiency, whilst demand grows (though possibly constrained)
Potential pathways to 2050 – all require extensive deployment of measures and development of options
2010s 2020s 2030s 2040s
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Summary on meeting the 2050 target
• Various ways in which target could be met based on currently identified measures at cost of 1-2% of 2050 GDP
• Uncertainties also exist over preferred technologies – need to provide support for emerging technologies throughout RDD&D chain to develop portfolio of options, and avoid lock-in to long-lived high-carbon assets
• All scenarios involve widespread energy efficiency improvement; decarbonisation of power generation; extensive electrification of heat and transport; prioritised bioenergy use; some progress in industry, aviation and agriculture
• Appropriate strategy now: aim for full deployment, refocus effort as uncertainties over costs and barriers are resolved
• 2050 target is stretching and requires action across the economy
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1. The Committee on Climate Change
2. Use of models in the CCC
3. Some case studiesa) Climate science and the climate objectiveb) 2050 modellingc) The Renewable Energy Review
4. Reflections
Contents
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Offshore wind, 406
Solar PV, 140
Tidal stream, 116
Onshore wind, 83
Tidal range, 39
Wave, 40 Geothermal, 35 Hydro, 8
There is abundant UK renewable resource
Estimated practical resource for UK renewables = ~850 TWh per year> Electricity demand = c. 350 TWh today, 500-600 TWh in 2050
• Fuel shortage unlikely before 2050
• Availability of sites?Nuclear
• Fuel supplies abundant• CO2 storage capacity?CCS
IntermittencyCan be managed at a cost likely to be
low relative to the cost of generation
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-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80 Fixed demand net intermittent generation Flexible Demand Exports & pumped storage
How does the system cope with high renewables? Snapshot from Feb (2006) with 50% renewables
Source: Poyry Zephyr model
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
800
1-Fe
b
03-F
eb
05-F
eb
07-F
eb
09-F
eb
11-F
eb
13-F
eb
15-F
eb
17-F
eb
19-F
eb
Offshore wind Onshore wind Solar Wave + tidal stream Fixed demand
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80 Nuclear Non-intermittent res CCSCoalIGCC CCSGas CCGTPeaker Imports VehiclesToGrid (GW)Pumped Storage Demandshedding
Fix
ed
dem
and
and
in
term
itte
nt
gen
erat
ion
(GW
)
Co
ntr
oll
able
de
man
d (G
W)
Co
ntr
oll
able
su
pply
(G
W)
Shape of fixed demand quite regular
Low wind
Flexible demand moves to high wind periods
Increased exports
Wind close to capacity (59GW)
Increased imports
Flexible demand shifts to overnight, no exports
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7.0 8.511.0 10.5
15.5
5.0 5.5 7.05.0
8.5
13.5
25.023.0
31.5
10.0
14.5 15.0 14.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Onshore wind
Offshore wind
Solar PV Tidal stream
Wave Nuclear Gas CCS Coal CCS Unabated gas
Leve
lised
co
st (p
/kW
h)
2030 Estimated cost of low-carbon technologies (2030)
Source: CCC calculations, based on Mott MacDonald (2011) for the Renewable Energy Review . Costs of low-carbon generation technologies.Note: 2010 prices, using a 10% discount rate. Project starting construction in 2030. Unabated gas and CCS include a carbon price (high-low range). Excludes additional system costs associated with intermittency.
Which low-carbon capacity?Future costs of low-carbon are highly uncertain
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18% 31% 45% 58% 72% 86%Proportion of renewables in electricity supply
(excluding Bio CCS)
Uncertainty over costs means that it is not appropriate to be too prescriptive over mix of low-carbon generation
Mean: 52%Median: 55%
CCC ESME run for 2050
ESME run for CCC Renewable Energy Review, May 2011, using ranges for costs of power technologies from Mott MacDonald, and for fossil fuel prices based on DECC scenarios.
All technologies assumed to be available.31
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Given various risks and uncertainties a portfolio approach is appropriate for power sector decarbonisation
EconomicsCurrent Future
Resource Limitations / Risks
Likely to play major role
Nuclear Sites, waste storage, public attitudes
Onshore wind
Probably limited
Acceptability (planning) constraints
Offshore wind
?
Could play major role, UK deployment important to developing option
CCS Best at low LF ?
Access to storageSubject to demo success
Tidal stream and wave
? Subject to demo success
May play role, UK deployment less important to drive down costs
Solar PV Globally driven
?
Tidal barrage
Limited scope for costs to fall
Useful option if others constrained/expensive
= favourable outlook = uncertain, potentially favourable
A portfolio approach: Firm minimum commitments on less mature technologies are required, alongside competitive investment in mature technologies.
Appears lowest cost
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1. The Committee on Climate Change
2. Use of models in the CCC
3. Some case studiesa) Climate science and the climate objectiveb) 2050 modellingc) The Renewable Energy Review
4. Reflections
Contents
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• Simple is good (but not always sufficient)
• Insights begin before models are used
• It helps to have a story
• Judgements are inevitable, and should be explicit
• Effective advice needs to cover all aspects
• Models are invaluable, but dangerous
Some reflections from our experiences
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Some important principles in using models to inform policy
Targeted
Transparent
Trustworthy
• Questions should fit into a broader ‘story’• Understand the question before using the model• Ask the right question to the right model
• Understand why the model gives a certain answer• Know the underlying relations and inputs• Be clear on uncertainties and limitations
• Based on reliable data• A lot of effort in QA• Check against intuitive understanding
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Questions?
Mike ThompsonHead of Carbon Budgets
www.theccc.org.uk
@theCCCuk@Mike_Thommo