1 Measuring Vocational Program Outcomes: What We Know and What’s Next Patrick Perry Vice...
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Transcript of 1 Measuring Vocational Program Outcomes: What We Know and What’s Next Patrick Perry Vice...
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Measuring Vocational Program Outcomes: What We
Know and What’s NextPatrick Perry
Vice Chancellor, Technology, Research, & Information
Systems
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Who is this guy? Why should we listen to you?
Brad Pitt-like looks Vin Diesel physique
I collect data and measure stuff for a living.
I have all the data. Information Management & Institutional
Research: IM…therefore IR.
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My Credo
I realize that I will not succeed in answering all of your questions. Indeed, I will not answer any of them completely. The answers I provide will only serve to raise a whole new set of questions that lead to more problems, some of which you weren’t aware of in the first place. When my work is complete, you will be as confused as ever, but hopefully, you will be confused on a higher level and about more important things.
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Today’s Learning Outcomes
Learn about recent impacts of fee increases/budget cuts on Voc. enrollments
Learn about vocational course completion rates
Know the trends of awards/certificates conferred in the system
Learn about wages by degree type Learn about wages by TOP code Learn about the ARCC/1417 Wage Study
(Pre-Post)
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Fee History of the CCC’sTime Frame Per Unit Fees Precipitating Event(s)
Prior to Fall 1984 $0
Fall 1984 - Spring 1991 $5, capped at $50 per sem. Recession in 1982-83
Fall 1991 – Fall 1993 $6, capped at $60 per sem.
Recession/State Budget Crisis of 1991-93
Spring 1993 $10, cap eliminated,
differential fee of $50/unit for holders of BA/BS
Fall 1993 to Fall 1995 $13, Differential fee of $50/unit
Spring 1996 to Fall 1998 $13, Differential fee eliminated
Period of economic boomSpring 1999 to Fall 1999 $12
Spring 2000 to Spring 2003 $11
Fall 2003 – Spring 2003 $18 Recession/State Budget Crisis of 2001-04Fall 2004 – present $26
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Budget History of the CCC’sFiscal Year System Funding (Billions)
1992-93 $2.74
1993-94 2.729
1994-95 2.757
1995-96 2.948
1996-97 3.199
1997-98 3.530
1998-99 3.889
1999-00 4.087
2000-01 4.672
2001-02 4.956
2002-03 4.907
2003-04 4.969
2004-05 5.416
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Fee/Budget Impacts and Voc Programs: Sections OfferedTerm Total Occ Ed Occ Ed % Transfer
Transfer %
Basic Skills
Basic Skills %
Fall 1999 157,015 54,033 -1.70% 105,182 -0.40% 14,078 6.70%
Spring 2000 160,728 56,834 5.20% 107,948 2.60% 13,717 -2.60%
Fall 2000 160,697 55,422 -2.50% 108,743 0.70% 14,379 4.80%
Spring 2001 165,906 58,988 6.40% 112,242 3.20% 14,090 -2.00%
Fall 2001 166,735 58,385 -1.00% 113,558 1.20% 14,536 3.20%
Spring 2002 172,811 62,678 7.40% 117,260 3.30% 14,259 -1.90%
Fall 2002 170,373 59,528 -5.00% 115,873 -1.20% 15,616 9.50%
Spring 2003 164,597 57,973 -2.60% 112,731 -2.70% 14,561 -6.80%
Fall 2003 160,573 55,768 -3.80% 109,975 -2.40% 14,632 0.50%
Spring 2004 165,261 58,209 4.40% 113,162 2.90% 14,831 1.40%
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Top 10 Curricular Areas Lost (FTES)
Subject Area 02-03 FTES 04-05 FTES FTES Loss
Physical Education 83,747.90 65,980.20 17,767.70
Information Technology, General 34,482.10 25,045.70 9,436.40
General Studies 123,413.20 114,348.90 9,064.30
Computer Software Development 8,848.20 5,287.50 3,560.70
Office Technology/Office Computer Applications 17,893.80 14,632.30 3,261.50
Art 32,512.60 29,656.10 2,856.50
Music 29,393.10 26,709.30 2,683.80
Administration of Justice 23,342.00 20,919.20 2,422.80
Mathematics, General 105,219.00 103,253.30 1,965.70
Electronics and Electric Technology 5,843.50 4,011.80 1,831.70
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Top 10 Curricular Areas Gained (FTES)
Subject Area 02-03 FTES 04-05 FTES FTES Gain
Real Estate 5,065.80 7,140.40 2,074.60
Manufacturing and Industrial Technology 7,667.80 9,606.20 1,938.40
Anatomy and Physiology 6,634.00 8,044.30 1,410.30
Fire Technology 9,888.00 10,906.20 1,018.20
Chemistry, General 23,147.90 23,992.00 844.1
Nutrition, Foods, and Culinary Arts 7,882.00 8,630.20 748.2
Microbiology 1,223.60 1,887.20 663.6
Sociology 15,641.00 16,161.80 520.8
Radiologic Technology 2,460.30 2,945.40 485.1
Speech Communication 21,824.30 22,179.40 355.1
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Voc Ed Course Completion Rates
Course Type 1995-96 2004-05 % change
Transferable Courses 68.3% 69.5% 1.8%
Basic Skills Courses 60.3% 60.7% 0.7%
Vocational Courses 77.2% 84.3% 9.2%
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Annual Volume of Awards/Certificates
Degree Type 1997-98 2004-05 % change
AA/AS Degrees 60,552 77,093 27.3%
Certificates 23,627 21,107 -10.7%
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Effects of Degree Attainment on Wages
Recent study done in support of ARCC/Ab1417 Accountability Project Catharine Liddicoat, CCC Research
Unit
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Effects of Degree Attainment on Wages
Methodology: Take all award recipients in 2000-
2001 who were Not enrolled in 01-02 and 02-03; and Not transferred to a 4-yr college; and Had a record on EDD’s wage file
Cut post-attainment wages by award type and TOP code of award (2+ years after)
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Study Domain
2000-2001 “Completers Cohort” had 14,516 students 12,105 earned one award; 2,411
earned 2 or more 78.7% had wage data for all 3 years
out Looking at only single award earners
who had 3 years of wage data: Study N=9,490
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Study: Median and Mean Wages
Subsequent Years Median Mean Std. Dev.
Wages 01-02 $31,515 $35,244 $24,302
Wages 02-03 $35,279 $39,491 $26,396
Wages 03-04 $37,174 $41,444 $28,206
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Study: Wages by Award Type
Award Type Wages 01-02 Wages 02-03 Wages 03-04
Assoc. of Arts $25,741 $29,215 $30,679
Assoc. Of Science $38,498 $46,002 $48,942
Certificate, <6 units $46,460 $48,110 $48,603
Certificate, 6-18 units $24,504 $26,267 $27,384
Certificate 18-30 units $30,447 $33,297 $35,252
Certificate, 30-60 units $30,419 $33,369 $34,520
Certificate, 60+ units $36,696 $40,687 $44,049
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TOP 5 Highest Earning:
5. Admin. Of Justice ($54,158) 4. Plumbing & Pipefitting ($56,628) 3. Corrections ($62,414) 2. Physicians Assistant ($64,658) 1. Surveying ($70,626)
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Bottom 5:
5. Fashion Design ($16,206) 4. Animal Science ($14,086) 3. Home Health Aide ($14,081) 2. Cosmetology ($11,616) 1. Spanish ($9,307)
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Wage Study: Wages Pre-Post
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
ccc median income $19,197 21,004 22,995 25,696 27,468 29,109 32,456 42,891 47,331 48,718
median household income $34,100 35,300 37,100 39,000 40,600 43,800 46,900 47,177 47,500 49,320
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Wage Study: Wages Pre-Post
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
S1S2
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
$50,000
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Income Increase from Attaining CCC Degree or Certificate (DRAFT Feb2006)
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Years
Inco
me
CA Median Hhold Income 35,100 34,100 35,300 37,100 39,000 40,600 43,800 46,900 47,177 47,500 49,320
CA Per Capita Income 22,635 23,203 24,161 25,312 26,490 28,374 29,828 32,464 32,877 32,807 33,389
CCC Median Income (no zeroes) 17,408 19,197 21,004 22,995 25,696 27,468 29,109 32,456 42,891 47,331 48,718
CCC Median Income (zeroes included) 2,131 3,560 5,323 7,459 9,116 10,541 10,665 15,158 25,758 27,667 28,670
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
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ARCC/AB1417
Is the next Accountability report of the CCC System
Features College-level metrics and System-level metrics
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ARCC/AB1417
Ideally, we desired to produce program completion rates for all voc. Programs, but…
MIS does not collect data on student program of study
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ARCC/AB1417
Metrics Associated with Vocational outcomes: Student Progress & Achievement Rate-
College Metric FTF cohort tracked over 6 years Tracks students who attempt transfer or degree-
applicable level math + English courses as “behavioral intent to complete”
Outcomes: Transfer, Transfer-prepared, transfer-directed, AA/AS, Certificate, or “earned 30 units” threshhold
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ARCC/AB1417
Annual Successful Course Completion Rate (Vocational Courses)—College Metric Same as in PFE Report
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ARCC/AB1417
Annual Volume of Degrees/Certificates Conferred (System Metric) Cut by TOP code
Increase in Total Personal Income as a result of degree/certificate attainment (System metric)
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ARCC/AB1417
Draft report sent to college ~October 60-day review of draft report, data
resubmission allowed Peer Groupings created for metrics Final draft of report to field ~January 30 day “response to report and local analysis”;
college comments made a part of the report Report due March Colleges have 1 year to have local board
review report and acknowledge having interacted with it
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Your Turn…
We are always open to hearing good research ideas…feel free to contact us so we may assist.
Thanks for inviting me to your conference!