1

Mapping China onto the International Landscape of

Aging Studies

James P. Smith

2

What Will (Mostly) Determine the Future of the World?

• The Aging of the Population

– Mortality rates falling

– Birth rates falling

– Work rates falling

– (hopefully)–The sky is not falling

3

25

48

6977

84

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Early Humans 1900 1950 2000 2050 (?)

USA

Life Expectancy at Birth

4

Source: Ronald Lee.

Life Expectancy at Birth, Fitted (1900–1996)and Forecasted (1997–2096)

95

90

85

80

75

70

65

60

55

50

45

Lifeexpectancy

at birth

97.5 percentile

50 percentile

2.5 percentile

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Year

5

World

606,425

1,907,249

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

2000 2050

Population Ages 60+, Total (Millions)

USA

46

104

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2000 2050

0

5

10

15

20

2000 2050

China

6

10

1620

10

23

9

2125

35

30

42

28

0

10

20

30

40

50

World US Europe China Japan Thailand

2000 2050

Percent of Population Age 60+

7

12.9

2.1

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2000

2050

China’s Support RatioPeople 25–64/People 65+

8

12.9

2.1

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2000

2050

China’s Support RatioPeople 25–64/People 65+

1.11.0

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

2000

2050

People 25–64/People (1-24 + 65+)

9

What Will (Mostly) Determine Our Future?

• The Aging of the Population

- SO WHAT’S THE PROBLEM

Provide income and health security during retirement at affordable budgets

10

What Will (Mostly) Determine Our Future?

• The Aging of the Population

- SO WHAT’S THE PROBLEM

Provide income and health security during retirement at affordable budgets

11

Government Benefits by Program and Age

Amountin 2000dollars

0 20 40 60 80

Age

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

0

Medicare

SocialSecurity

Medicaid

Other benefits such as public assistance

Education

Source: Ron Lee

12

Taxes Paid by Age

Amountin 2000dollars

0 20 40 60 80

Age

15,000

10,000

5,000

0

Payroll

SalesProperty

Income

Other taxes including federal corporate tax charges/fees

Source: Ron Lee

13

Projected Fiscal Balance by Level of Government, 2000 to 2100

Source: Ron Lee

Federal

Ratio of taxes to benefits

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

1.1

1.0

0.9

0.8

0.7

14

The International Landscape in Comparable Data Collection

• The USA Health and Retirement Survey - HRS

15

Overview of HRS

• Nationally representative longitudinal survey of ~20,000 people age 51+ designed to produce public use data

• Funded mostly by NIA

• Began in 1992 with the birth cohorts of 1931-41

• Two year periodicity

• Links to administrative records—health and pension

• Has developed into a steady state design which– Represents U.S. population over the age of 50– Adds new six-year cohort each six years

16

Core Content Areas in HRS• HealthPhysical/psychological self-report, conditions, disabilities;

Cognitive testing

Behaviors (smoking, drinking, exercise)

• Health ServicesUtilization, expenditure, insurance, out-of-pocket spending

• Labor ForceEmployment status/history, earnings, disability, retirement, type of work

• Economic StatusIncome, wealth, and consumption

Linkage to pensions, Social Security earnings/benefit histories

• Family StructureExtended family, proximity, transfers to/from of money, time, housing.

17

HRS Longitudinal Sample Design

92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

YEAR

War Babies

Early Boomers

Mid Boomers

AHEAD

CODA

HRS

18

0 2 17 41 77 102152

199255

310373

449 485

1 38

1223

37

53

66

72

81

8693

0 0 0

27

37

44

54

5959

10 1423

37

54

83

101

129

185

228

281

318

326

24

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Year

Cit

atio

n C

ou

nt

Journal Article Book/Book Chapter Dissertation Working Paper Forthcoming

Scientific Productivity of HRS:HRS Publications, 1993-2005:

Cumulative Count by Type

Cumulative Count: June 15, 2005 Journal Publications 510 Books and Book Chapters 83 Dissertations 59 Working Papers 326 Total 978

19

The International Landscape in Comparable Data Collection

• HRS

• ELSA (English Longitudinal Study of Ageing)

– Two waves completed (2002, 2004)

20

1998 1999 2001 2002/3 2003 2004/52000

HSE(CVD)

5,053

Nurse visit

HSE(CVD)

5,053

Nurse visit

HSE(ethnic)

2,227

HSE(ethnic)

2,227HSE

(respiratory)

4,549

Nurse visit

HSE(respiratory)

4,549

Nurse visit

ELSA W1

12,100Individuals

aged 50 or over

ELSA W1

12,100Individuals

aged 50 or over

ELSA W2

c.10,800

+ Nurse Visit

ELSA W2

c.10,800

+ Nurse Visit

ELSA Design Basics

21

ELSA/HSE SES Information

HSE ELSA02 ELSA 04

Employment details + + +

Work disability . . +

Social class; SEC, SOC etc. + + +

Education + + +

Housing tenure + + +

Banded household income + . .

Fully detailed income measure . + +

Fully detailed wealth measure . + +

Pensions (including data linkage) . + +

Expectations . + +

Consumption items . . +

Key: + Available; . Not available

22

ELSA/HSE Health InformationHSE98 HSE99 HSE01 ELSA02 ELSA 04

Self reported general health + + + + +

Longstanding illness + + + + +

CVD conditions + - - + +

Respiratory conditions - - + + +

Other specific conditions - - - + +

Blood sample + . + . +

Blood sample analysis + . . . +

Height and weight + + + . +

Blood pressure + . + . +

Walking speed . . . + +

Other physical functioning tests . . . . +

Key: + Available for all (consenting) respondents; - Asked only if respondent reports a long standing illness; . Not asked/collected in the general purpose sample

23

The International Landscape in Comparable Data Collection

• HRS, ELSA

• SHARE (Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe)

– 14 countries in Europe

– completed first wave 2004, approved for EU funding of second wave in 2006

24

Introduction to SHARE

SHARE: 22,777 individuals aged 50+ in 11 countries

– Austria, Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland

– Ireland, Poland and Czech Republic added in second wave

• Some 150 researchers

• Sponsored by EU

• Additional funding U.S. NIA and national funds

• Optimal cross-national comparability

25

ELSA

26

What data will be collected? (1)What data will be collected? (1)

1. Health Variables: Self-reported health, physical functioning (ADLs, IADLs, walking speed, grip strength), mental health and cognition, health behaviors and health utilization, insurance coverage. In the longer run: bio-medical data.

2. Economic Variables: Current work and job characteristics, employment history, pension rights, sources of current income, wealth and consumption.

27

What data will be collected? (2)What data will be collected? (2)

3. Family and Social Network: Family structure, assistance within families, intergenerational transfers of money and time, social networks, time use after retirement.

Psychological data: Expectations, preferences, risk aversion, time horizon

Demographic data: Basics (age, gender, marital status...), housing, education

Data Links: Where available: administrative earnings, social security, employer provided information.

28

The International Landscape in Comparable Data Collection

• HRS, ELSA, SHARE

• - South Korea, Thailand and Japan all underway

29

The International Landscape in Comparable Data Collection

• HRS, ELSA and SHARE

• South Korea, China, and Japan all underway

• Saving the Best for Last

• China