1

Keeping Government on track: Aviation and the Committee on Climate Change

Ben Combes6 May 2009

Committee on Climate Change (CCC) Overview

2

Climate Change Act

• Creates an independent Committee on Climate Change• Sets a legally binding target for emissions in 2050• Creates a greenhouse gas budgeting system, capping emissions over 5-year

periods starting 2008• Became law on 26th November 2008

Climate Change Act

• Creates an independent Committee on Climate Change• Sets a legally binding target for emissions in 2050• Creates a greenhouse gas budgeting system, capping emissions over 5-year

periods starting 2008• Became law on 26th November 2008

Climate Change Act has support from all three major parties:The Climate Change Bill passed in the House of Commons by 463 votes to 4.

Climate Change Act has support from all three major parties:The Climate Change Bill passed in the House of Commons by 463 votes to 4.

• Competitiveness

• Security of supply

• Fuel poverty

• Fiscal revenues

• Scotland, Wales and N. Ireland

• Ancillary environmental effects

Forthcoming reports on

Identify implications of proposed budgets for

CCC Duties

3

• 2050 target:• 60%, 80%, or other

• First 3 budgets:̶� Where in 2018-22 (26%+)̶� Trajectory from today

• How much buy-in of credits allowed

• Should international aviation & shipping be included

• CO2 budgets or all GHGs

Recommend in 1st Report (2008)

• Annual progress against budgets

• 4th Budget period etc

• Special requests e.g. Aviation

The Scale of the Challenge

4

Source: UK National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (2008).

A path to 2050

5

Source: NAEI (2008).

IA&S: ‘remain’ 5% below the avg 2004-06 emissions to 2050

Non-CO2: fall by 70% relative to 1990 levels

UK Domestic CO2 would have to be cut by 89% relative to 1990 to achieve overall 80% GHG reduction

IA&S: ‘remain’ 5% below the avg 2004-06 emissions to 2050

Non-CO2: fall by 70% relative to 1990 levels

UK Domestic CO2 would have to be cut by 89% relative to 1990 to achieve overall 80% GHG reduction

1st Report – Aviation Recommendations

6

• If unchecked, global aviation could reach 2.4 GtCO2 in 2050 (15-20% of all CO2 permitted).

• International aviation (IA) needs to be covered by an international agreement.

GlobalGlobal

EUEU

UKUK

• In the absence of a global deal the planned inclusion of aviation (domestic and international) in the EU ETS makes sense and there are few disadvantages to European unilateral action.

• Ideally, IA included in UK budgets for completeness, but complexities relating to EU ETS admin and bunker fuels. Therefore, explicit inclusion not recommended.

• As aviation is in EU 20% and 30% targets, UK budgets implicitly take into account international aviation emissions.

• Propose that the CCC reports annually on UK trends in international aviation emissions, their climate impact, developments in, and the success of, abatement efforts and appropriate policy levers.

7

• Global unconstrained demand growth 4-5% pa to 2050.

EfficiencyEfficiency

• QinetiQ’s analysis showed that aircraft in 2025 could be 40-50% more fuel efficient compared to a 2006 aircraft.

• This improvement includes evolutionary airframe and engine technologies as well as better operations.

• Consistent with a 1.5% pa fleet efficiency improvement.

Global Demand growthGlobal Demand growth

Biofuels/modal shiftBiofuels/modal shift

Non-CO2 climate effectsNon-CO2 climate effects

• Our analysis noted the potential for biofuels in reducing life-cycle emissions, but did not quantify the potential.

• The scope of our analysis did not include the potential for modal shift from air to rail.

• The report noted the importance of non-CO2 effects and that these should be accounted for in some way.

• However, a scientific understanding of these processes is still developing and there is currently no agreement on the appropriate policy metric.

1st Report – Aviation Results

In light of the Government’s decision to set a UK target to reduce aviation carbon emissions in 2050 below the level of 2005, the Government has invited the Committee:

Reporting to the Secretaries of State for Transport and for Energy and Climate Change by December 2009.

to assess UK trends in international aviation emissions (using a range of appropriate methodologies); to advise the Government on the basis for measurement for the UK target for aviation emissions in

2050; to assess the scope for reductions, including from improvements in technology and the effect of

appropriate policy levers; and the implications of further aviation expansion beyond 2020.

In addition, to advise the Government on an appropriate structure and/or international target regime to support a global deal.

to assess UK trends in international aviation emissions (using a range of appropriate methodologies); to advise the Government on the basis for measurement for the UK target for aviation emissions in

2050; to assess the scope for reductions, including from improvements in technology and the effect of

appropriate policy levers; and the implications of further aviation expansion beyond 2020.

In addition, to advise the Government on an appropriate structure and/or international target regime to support a global deal.

Aviation Report – Terms of Reference

8

UK Aviation Emissions – DfT forecast

9

Source: DfT (2009).

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

MtC

O2/

yr

Year

central

UK Aviation Emissions - Sustainable Aviation Roadmap

10

Source: Sustainable Aviation (2008).

Aviation Report – work programme

The work programme will comprise four parts:

1. Developing scenarios for UK aviation demand and emissions. 1. Developing scenarios for UK aviation demand and emissions.

2. Analysing potential for improvements in carbon efficiency while continuing to use fossil fuel based aviation kerosene.

2. Analysing potential for improvements in carbon efficiency while continuing to use fossil fuel based aviation kerosene.

3. Assessing scope for the use of biofuels and hydrogen in aviation.3. Assessing scope for the use of biofuels and hydrogen in aviation.

4. Considering high-level aspects of a global framework for aviation.4. Considering high-level aspects of a global framework for aviation.

11

12

Aviation Report – main consultancy projects

2. Modal shift from air to rail2. Modal shift from air to rail

1. Aviation demand and emissions1. Aviation demand and emissions

3. Aviation biofuels3. Aviation biofuels

MVA Consultancy(Project started 30th March)

MVA Consultancy(Project started 30th March)

Steer Davies Gleave(Project started 21st April)

Steer Davies Gleave(Project started 21st April)

E4tech (Project started 1st May)

E4tech (Project started 1st May)

Technology Considerations

13

Technology ReadinessTechnology Readiness In-service provisionIn-service provision Fleet RolloverFleet Rollover

11 22 33

TimeTime

% reduction in CO2 per

pkm

Deploy technology

into new aircraft across

seat classes

How quickly technology is

deployed, older aircraft retired

Contact Details

14

Thank you ben.combes@theccc.gsi.gov.uk

Please see new section of the CCC website:http://www.theccc.org.uk/reports/aviation-report

Please see new section of the CCC website:http://www.theccc.org.uk/reports/aviation-report