1 Issues in Forestry Carbon Crediting IEA Bioenergy Task 38 Workshop Canberra, Australia March...
Transcript of 1 Issues in Forestry Carbon Crediting IEA Bioenergy Task 38 Workshop Canberra, Australia March...
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Issues in Forestry Carbon Crediting
IEA Bioenergy Task 38 WorkshopCanberra, AustraliaMarch 28-30, 2001
Doug BradleyDomtar Inc.
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Issues in Forestry Carbon Trading
• New Zealand workshop• What is in/not in Kyoto• Who is buying what credits• Trading Issues • Amortization• Example projects• Harvested Wood products• What need to move forward
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To Tai Toko Workshop- Feb 16-18
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To Tai Toko Workshop
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A sunny day in indigenous forest
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Dinner at “Lodge Ford-Robertson”
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Accommodation in “Garage Villa”
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Delegates watch river rise
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Raging To Tai Toko River
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A minor “slip”
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Escape to Freedom
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Kyoto- In vs Not yet in
IN KYOTO NOT YET IN KYOTO
_________Fossil Fuel Reduction_ ____Carbon Sequestration_____________Energy Efficiency Fuel Switching Afforest., Reforest Other Forestry, Agricultural
(Biomass for fossil fuel) Deforestation ActivitiesReduce fossil fuel Reduces fossil fuel Sequesters carbon Sequesters carbon
(defn. - Article 3.3) (negotiated- Article 3.4)Examples:-Fuel efficient motors -Wood waste cogen -Planting on poor agric. land Forestry: -Waste heat capture -Black liquor -Reducing deforestation -Pest and disease control-Prod’n enhancemt integrated gasific. -Fire control-Improved Maint. and combined cycle cogen -Commercial thinning
-Juvenile Spacing-Tree Improvment- Reduc. impact loggingAgricultural:-Reduced tillage-Manure management-Shelterbelts
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Who is buying what?
• Ontario Power Gen• BC Hydro
• Seattle City Light• TransAlta
• Gemco
• All sinks- if thru PERT• No sequestration, no
business as usual• Sequestration- Kyoto only• Sequestration- Kyoto- no
conservation or forest mgt (1.Can 2.Aus, 3.NZ 4.US…)
• Sinks including agriculture
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Trading Issues
Lack of clear guidelines is holding up action
• In Kyoto vs not• “Business as Usual”• Discounting• Harvested wood products • First commitment period
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Implications of Commitment Period
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1990
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Plantation 1Plantation 2Plantation 3
Kyoto Period
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0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Time (years)
Cum
ula
tive c
arb
on s
tock
changes
(ton
s C
/ha)
Carbon in trees
Cumulative credits
Hypothetical Managed Forest StandPossible Accounting Method
Use of Amortization
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Carbon Impacts of Sequestration Activities
Initial Long TermForestry:
Afforestation sequestr. sequestrPest spray sequestr. sequestr.Tree Improvement sequestr. sequestr. Juvenile spacing emission sequestr. Commercial thinning emission sequestr.Fertilization emission sequestr.
Other:Landfill Incineration emission sequestr.
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Pre-commercial Thinning(Juvenile Spacing)
Unthinned Thinned
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Yield Curve Natural vs Spaced
Sewell
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0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Bio
mas
s (t/
ha)
Spaced Msmt
Spaced - Curve
Control - Actual
Control - Curve
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Impact of forest management
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Natural Jack Pine Forest (Baseline)Forest and Products Carbon Pools
Gorcam model
Baseline
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2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2120 2140 2160 2180 2200
Year
Landfi ll
LLP
SLP
Other Veg.
Trees
Litter
Roots
Soil
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Juvenile Spaced Stand Forest and Products Carbon Pools
Gorcam Model
Project
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2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2120 2140 2160 2180 2200
Year
Landfill
LLP
SLP
Other Veg
Trees
Litter
Roots
Soil
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Net Emissions Control vs Spaced Gorcam Model
Stand-level Net Biomass
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
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Year
Net
Bio
mas
s(t
CO
2e/ h
a)
Landfill
LLP
SLP
Other Veg.
Trees
Litter
Roots
Soil
Total (w ith landfill)
Total (no landfill)
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Stand SequestrationAnnual CreditingGorcam Model
Stand Net Sequestration- Tonnes CO2/ha
-150-100-50
050
100150200250
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 2110 2120 2130
Net Biomass Net All Pools Amortized Sequestration
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Actual vs Amortized Sequestration Cumulative (tonnes CO2e/ha)
-20
-10
0
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2016
2018
AmortizedActualActual 2Amort 2
Kyoto Period
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New Concept- Phases of Acceptance
Concept- “Give credit for long term benefit even if short term emission”
• Utterly ridiculous!• Violently opposed! • Accepted and felt to be always self-
evident
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Jack Pine Bud Worm Spray Program
• Epidemics cycle 5-7 years• Result in tree mortality, growth loss• Assumptions
– 17% outright mortality- years 2-4– 10% less growth p.a. – years 2-6– 10% mortality due to top kill- year 7
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Bud Worm Spray Program Stand Level Biomass
Yield Curves
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0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Year
Bio
mas
s (t
/ha)
Treated
Infected
Gorcam Model
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Biomass with JPBW Attack
Baseline
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0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110
Year
Bio
mas
s (t
/ha)
Landfill
LLP
SLP
Other Veg.
Trees
Litter
Roots
Soil
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Biomass with JPBW Suppression
Project
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0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110
Year
Bio
mas
s (t
/ha)
Landfill
LLP
SLP
Other Veg
Trees
Litter
Roots
Soil
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Bud Worm Spray Program Gorcam ModelStand Level
Stand-level Net Biomass
-100
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-60
-40
-20
0
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Year
Net
Bio
mas
s(t
CO
2e/ h
a)
Landfill
LLP
SLP
Other Veg.
Trees
Litter
Roots
Soil
Total (with landfill)
Total (no landfill)
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Bud Worm Spray ProgramGorcam Model
Forest-level Net Biomass
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
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Year
Bio
mas
s(t
CO
2e)
Landfill
LLP
SLP
Other Veg
Trees
Litter
Roots
Soil
Total (without Landfill)
Total (with Landfill)
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Pest Control Carbon Balance
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ActualAmort
Kyoto Period
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Combined Spray-Spacing in Carbon “Pool”
-1000000
-500000
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
1993 1998 2003 2008
PestSpaceNew NetAmortized
Kyoto Period
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Domtar Wood Products Parameters
• Harvest (Domtar operations)– Biofuel 26%, short-lived 19%, long-lived 30%,
landfill <1%, on-site waste 25%
• Wood Products– Short-lived
• Avg lifetime 5 years• Biofuel 25%, compost 15%, landfill 10%, recycled
50%
– Long-lived• Avg lifetime 30 years• Biofuels 25%, landfill 10%, recycled 65%
• Landfill– Average lifetime- 42 years
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Wood Products Carbon5 yr decay
0
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2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
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Wood Products Carbon10 yr decay
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2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
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Wood Products- Ken Skog- USDA Forestry- decay estimates
0102030405060708090
100
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
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European Forest InstituteCarbon Balance Implications of ….Wood Products
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Life Cycle- NZ Plantation Forest
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EnergyAvoidedProductsForest
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Existing Forest Intensively Managed
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New Energy
Energy
Avoided
Products
Incr Mgt
Forest
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Carbon Credit Market
400
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EmissionsReductionsPresumed Target
Need reductions or creditsFirst Commitment Period
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Current Pricing
Low High Deal
Cantor Fitzgerald
$0.77 $3.09
Gemco $1.00 $1.50
SaskPower $0.83
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What do we want to happen?
• Increase use of biomass – biofuel, biochemicals….
• Increase amount of biomass– Eg. through intensive forest management
• Increase demand for wood
How can this happen?
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Incentives to promote forest carbon sequestration
• Forest management in Kyoto• Standard accounting system• Acceptance of forest measurement
methods (periodic sample plots)• Amortization methodologies• Include all carbon pools• Recognition of 1991-2007 activities