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Intuitive Lawmaking: The Example of Child Support

Ira Mark Ellman

Sanford Braver

Robert J. MacCoun

Conference on Empirical Legal StudiesNew York UniversityNovember 2007

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How Do People Think About Rules?

Child Support awards as case study

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Some of Our Questions What do people favor?

Decision principles Child-support amounts Do their favored amounts follow logically from the

principles they explicitly endorse? Is there consensus? Do characteristics like gender matter? Are Lay intuitions on support amounts

consistent with existing law?

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Method: Survey Instruments Who We Ask

Members of jury pool in Tucson Good community sample 70% response rate to long forms Today’s data from first 2 sessions About 400 respondents

Continuing study Nine weeks of further variations Gender among them

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What We Ask Likerts: 1 (strong disagree) to 7 (strong agree) Support Amounts in Scenarios that assume

One child (9 year old boy) Mom is CP, Dad is support obligor Son “lives mostly with Mom, but Dad sees him

often” Dad earns $6000, $4000, or $2000 a month in

“take-home pay”. Mom: $5,000, $3,000, or $1,000

Every subject asked about all nine income combinations

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Likert Items 1 through 3

Item % Who Clearly Agree

% Who Clearly

Disagree

Men or Women Agree More?

CHILD WELL-BEING

The most important reason to require child support payments is to ensure the well-being of children.

92.6

(1)

1.4 No Diff

GROSS DISPARITY

The father should be required to pay only the child support amount needed to make the child completely comfortable, even if the father has a high income and lives much better than the child.‡

21.6 37.9 Men

(.70)

If the father has a lot more money than the mother has, he should pay enough child support to make sure the child doesn't live too much worse than he lives.

57.2

(5)

7.2 Women

(.65)

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Item % Who Clearly Agree

% Who Clearly

Disagree

Men or Women Agree More?

EARNER’S PRIORITY PRINCIPLE

The father should be required to pay child support even if he is in poverty.‡

30.7 32.1 Women(.84)

The father should not have to pay so much child support that his children live better than he lives.

39.6 18.1 No Diff

While child support is very important, the father should be able to keep enough of his earnings to be able to feed himself and pay for a decent place to live.

76.8

(2)

3.5 No Diff

Likert Items 4 through 6

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Likert Items 7 through 9

Item % Who Clearly Agree

% Who Clearly

Disagree

Men or Women Agree More?

DUAL-OBLIGATION

Even if the mother has enough money to provide the child with everything that might be important to the child's well-being, the father should still have to pay some child support.

69.2

(3)

7.1 Women

(.77)

The mother should receive child support payments from the father even if she can meet the child's basic physical and educational needs without them.

58.7

(4)

7.7 Women

(.74)

When the mother has enough money to support the child fully, the father should not have to pay child support at all.‡

8.1 72.4 Men

(.90)

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Item % Who Clearly Agree

% Who Clearly

Disagree

Men or Women Agree More?

NO COMPELLED SUPPORT

Parents should support their children, but the law should never force one parent to pay child support to the other.

6.6 78.3 Men(.57)

DECENT MINIMUM ONLY

We should only require enough child support to make sure a child's basic physical and educational needs are met. There should be no additional child support required beyond that.

15.0 49.7 Men

(.62)

Child support should not be limited to the amount needed to make sure a child's basic physical and educational needs are met. If the father can afford it, he should be required to pay more.‡

50.5 11.9 Women

(.83)

Likert Items 10 through 12

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Item % Who Clearly Agree

% Who Clearly

Disagree

Men or Women Agree More?

POOI

Even if the mother's income goes up a lot, the fathers required child support payments should stay the same.

27.2 34.1 Women

(.96)

The more income the mother earns, the less the father should have to pay in child support.‡

5.3 27.6 Men(1.16)

ENSURE NO FINANCIAL LOSS FROM DIVORCE

The father should be required to pay enough child support to protect the child from suffering any financial loss from divorce.

56.3 8.4 Women(.88)

The father should be required to pay enough child support to protect the mother and child from suffering any financial loss from divorce.

41.3 14.8 Women(.96)

Likert Items 13 through 16

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Item % Who Clearly Agree

% Who Clearly

Disagree

Men or Women Agree More?

ENSURE MARITAL LIVING STANDARD

The father should be required to pay enough child support to make sure that the child lives as well as he or she did during the marriage.

45.4 12.5 Women(.93)

ENSURE EQUAL LIVING STANDARD

The father should be required to pay enough to make sure that the child lives as well as he does.

46.7 11.6 Women(.90)

The father should be required to pay enough to make sure that the child and mother live as well as he does.

31.1 22.6 Women(.72)

The purpose of child support is not to make sure the child lives as well as the father.‡

36.1 27.4 Men(.46)

Likert Items 17-20

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Table Three: Rotated Component Matrix Factor

Item 1 2 3 4

The father should be required to pay enough to make sure that the child and mother live as well as he does. EQ

.804

The father should be required to pay enough child support to protect the mother and child from suffering any financial loss from divorce. NL

.786

The father should be required to pay enough child support to make sure that the child lives as well as he or she did during the marriage. NL

.758

The father should be required to pay enough to make sure that the child lives as well as he does. EQ

.739 -.168

If the father has a lot more money than the mother has, he should pay enough child support to make sure the child doesn't live too much worse than he lives. GD

.706

-.198

The father should be required to pay enough child support to protect the child from suffering any financial loss from divorce. NL

.678

.243

.196

Child support should not be limited to the amount needed to make sure a child's basic physical and educational needs are met. If the father can afford it, he should be required to pay more. -DM

.544

.237

-.389

The mother should receive child support payments from the father even if she can meet the child's basic physical and educational needs without them. DO

.162

.685

-.176

.173

Even if the mother has enough money to provide the child with everything that might be important to the child's well-being, the father should still have to pay some child support. DO

.210

.675

.216

The father should be required to pay child support even if he is in poverty. -EPP

.666 -.162

The more income the mother earns, the less the father should have to pay in child support. -POOI

-.665 .314

Even if the mother's income goes up a lot, the father's required child support payments should stay the same. POOI

.257 .659 .229 -.304

When the mother has enough money to support the child fully, the father should not have to pay child support at all. -DO

-.604 .401

•EFA explains 52%

•1 = GD+

•Mean rating = 4.99

•2 = Dual Obligation

•Mean rating = 4.82

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We should only require enough child support to make sure a child's basic physical and educational needs are met. There should be no additional child support required beyond that. DM

-.196

-.205

.656

Parents should support their children, but the law should never force one parent to pay child support to the other. NS

-.237

.629 -.172

The father should be required to pay only the child support amount needed to make the child completely comfortable, even if the father has a high income and lives much better than the child. -GD

-.262

.616

.221

The purpose of child support is not to make sure the child lives as well as the father. -EQ -.204 .302

While child support is very important, the father should be able to keep enough of his earnings to be able to feed himself and pay for a decent place to live. EPP

.697

The most important reason to require child support payments is to ensure the well-being of children. WB -.244 .517

The father should not have to pay so much child support that his children live better than he lives. EPP .510

Factors 3 & 4

• 3: Capping Father’s Responsibility– Most disagree: mean rating 2.81

• 4: Earner’s Priority– Highest average agreement of all: 5.69

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Gender Effects in Factors 1 & 2

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Gender Effects in Factor 3

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Gender Effects in Factor 4

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Child Support Amounts Each respondent is asked to make 9

judgments (3 x 3 income matrix) We construct a regression model predicting

subject i’s preferred support amount in case j: Constant + coefficient * Mom’s income +

coefficient * Dad’s income + coefficient *Mom’s income * Dad’s income + error term

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• Average regression lines show– Respondents believe mom’s income matters– Lower CP income yields steeper slope

Low income mom

High Income mom

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“Coherent Arbitrariness” Considerable dispersion in the Y-intercept

95% confidence interval is 249 to 366 Little dispersion in the slopes

CP income = -82 per 1000 95% confidence interval is -89 to -75

NCP income = 185 per 1000 95% confidence interval of 177 to 193

Ariely called this pattern “coherent arbitrariness” Initial choice is arbitrary Relative values are coherent.

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Connecting Principles with Cases Can we predict preferred support amounts

from Likert ratings of support principles? Factor 1 (GD +) as example Compare the average child support

regression line of two groups Agree more with Gross Disparity + (High

Rating) Agree Less with Gross Disparity + (Low

Rating) Method: Hierarchical Linear Modeling (HLM)

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Details of the Groups

Agree with Gross Disparity Plus Mean item rating: 6.32 1 SD above group mean

Disagree with Gross Disparity Plus: Mean item rating: 3.59 1 SD below group mean

Group Mean = 4.99, SD = 1.33

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583

814

1800

211397

551

288

365

705

1044

349

673

997

483

941

1399

617

1209

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2000 4000 6000

Child

Sup

port

Awar

ds

Father’s Income

Mother’s Income: ▲= 5000 ■ = 3000 ● = 1000Gross Disparity +: Low High

Gross Disparity+ as Predictor of Child Support Amounts

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What Prior Slide Tells Us Within each Factor 1 group, basic pattern repeats

CS amounts go down as CP income rises, and go up as NCP income rises

If you rate GD+ high, then You prefer more CS at any point You increase support amounts more rapidly

with increasing NCP income. These differences in CS amounts follow

logically from the GD+ ratings

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Some of Our Answers: Within individuals

Beliefs, as measured by attitudes toward 20 principles, reflect a consistent pattern

Preferred support amounts in particular cases reflect these beliefs about principles

Between individuals Men and women really are different

and it’s legal nurture as well as nature Individual support schedules differ in their starting

point but not much in their slope People care more about child well-being than

does existing law