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International Demands on Crime Statistics

Geneva, November 3, 2004

Wolfgang RhombergUNODC, Research and Analysis

Section

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Not everything that can be counted, counts. And not everything that counts can be counted.”

Albert Einstein

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ECOSOC res. 1984/48 25 May 1984

• Crime related database• Surveys on Crime Trends and Operations of

Criminal Justice Systems• Collect data on the incidence of reported crime• Collect data on the operations of criminal justice

systems• Improve analysis and dissemination of

information• Informed decision making in administration,

nationally and internationally

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Systems thinking approach

• Conceptual models

• Every model needs a purpose

• Modelling implies– Omission– Distortion– Generalization

• Who are we doing it for?

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Different conceptual models lead to different results

• ICVS (victims)

• WCTS (police)

o - (media)

o - (insurance companies)

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88thth UNWCTS UNWCTS

• 4 Parts: Police, Prosecution, Courts, Prisons

• 19 Tables: 4 + 3 + 4 + 8

• 164 Variables/Year: 48 + 30 + 36 + 50 • Web: http://www.unodc.org/unodc/crime_cicp_surveys.html

• Available for download in 6 UN languages

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88thth UNWCTS UNWCTS Table 2 of the questionnaire

(Crimes recorded in criminal (police) statistics, by type of crime including attempts to commit crimes, 2001 – 2002)lists the following 18 types of offences:

2.1 Total recorded crimes, regardless of type;Intentional homicide:2.2 Committed; 2.3 Attempted; and 2.4 Committed with a firearm; 2.5 Non-intentional homicide;Assault: 2.6 Major assault; 2.7 Total assault;2.8 Rape; 2.9 Robbery;Theft: 2.10 Major theft; 2.11 Total theft; 2.12 Automobile theft;2.13 Burglary; 2.14 Fraud; 2.15 Embezzlement;2.16 Drug-related crime; 2.17 Bribery and/or corruption;2.18 Kidnapping

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Policy impact

• Criminals ?

• Cost of crime ?

• Proceeds of crime ?

• Attrition rates ?

• CJS efficiency ?

• Crime infection rates ?

• Security and quality of life ?

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Meta statisticsOn reporting:• Who? (and who not)

• What?• When? (input vs. output)

• How?• For whom?• For what purpose?• Feedback?

On statistics, how:• accurate?• complete?• timely? • reliable?• consistent?• comparable?

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Who reports?

• Federal – State

• Different Police Organizations

• Reporting chains, consolidation

• Statistical institutes - Ministries

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What is being reported?

Example given: “significant drug seizure”

• What is significant?

• Which drug?

• Purity?

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Statistic• Is it relevant?• Is the answer available?• Is there a clear unit of measurement?• Semantics?

Less is more

Small is beautiful

Reductio ad absurdum

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When and How

• Input statistics vs output statistics

• This years convictions vs last years arrests

• Media of reporting (double count)

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Dynamic crime models

Disagreement escalates to ViolenceDisagreement escalates to Violence Anti Corruption InitiativeAnti Corruption Initiative

DefensiveMinimize Likelihood of Significant Impact

OffensiveEliminate the Causes

decrease increase

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UN Crime Trends Survey

Crimes Suspects Prisoners

Counts/year Counts/year Counts/year Counts on given day

Personsconvicted

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Delays

Seemingly stabilized system becomes unstable after a long time

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Crime Conventions

• United Nations Convention against Corruption• United Nations Convention against Transnational

Organized Crime• Protocol to Prevent, Suppress and Punish

Trafficking in Persons• Protocol against the Smuggling of Migrants by

Land, Air and Sea• Protocol against the Illicit Manufacturing of and

Trafficking in Firearms, Their Parts and Components and Ammunition

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Wish listPlease consider:1. Objectives, conceptual models2. Meta statistics3. Keep to essentials4. Reporting chains5. Alternative solutions6. Individual statistics7. Interpretation of data8. Crime conventions

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Thank you !