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Initial Market Price Bulletin for the month of September 2013 (Reported in October 2013)

HIGHLIGHTS: Wheat: Average wheat grain retail price in the main cities of the country was increasing from August 2012 through March

2013, then it was decreasing during April – June 2013 and slightly increased during July – September 2013.

The current average price of wheat in main cities of Afghanistan is significantly higher by 10.3% in comparison to the same time last year (September 2012), while remained stable compared to the last 5-year average price of the same months (0.7% increased).

Wheat flour: Average wheat flour retail price in main urban cities of Afghanistan was increasing during June 2012 – March 2013. It slightly decreased during April – June 2013 and slightly increased during July – August 2013. In the current month it show a negligible decrease by 0.9% compared to the previous month (August 2013). The current wheat flour average price is slightly higher by 3.8% compared the same month last year (September 2012), while remained relatively stable compared to the last 5-year average price of the same months (2.8% increased).

Rice is considered as the 2nd

main staple food in Afghanistan. The current average retail price of Rice (Low Quality) is significantly higher by 13% compared to the same month last year (September 2012) and by 25.2%, compared to the last 5-year average price of the same months. The current average price of high quality Rice is also remarkably higher by 21.1% compared to the same month last year (September 2012), and by 33.9% compared to the last 5-year average price of the same months.

Terms of Trade (ToT):

Casual Labor and Wheat (ToT): The Terms of Trade (ToT)

between casual Labor and wheat is a proxy indicator or the purchasing capacity of households relying on casual labor as main income, and purchase of wheat in the market. This ToT reveal how many Kilograms of wheat can be purchased with one day of casual unskilled labor wage, but do not say how many days a month a laborer can get to cover the family food needs.

Wage labor-Wheat ToT average for the reporting month was 14.9 Kgs of wheat. On average, this ToT significantly deteriorated (by 6.6%) from August to September 2013. The deterioration was due to decreased labor wage (by 4%) and increased Wheat price (by 1.8%).

In comparison to the same month one year ago (September 2012), this ToT significantly deteriorated by 16.1%, mainly due to increased wheat price (by 10.3%) and decreased labor wage (by 7%).

On the two years comparison (September 2011), this ToT significantly deteriorated by 10%.

Compared to the 5-year average of the same months (September 2008-2012), this ToT improved by 6%.

Casual Labor and Wheat Flour (ToT): The Terms of Trade (ToT) between casual Labor and Wheat Flour is a proxy indicator or the purchasing capacity of households relying on casual labor as main income, and purchase of Wheat Flour in the market. This ToT reveal how many Kilograms of Wheat Flour can be purchased with one day of casual unskilled labor wage, but do not say how many days a month a laborer can get to cover the family food needs.

Wage labor-Wheat Flour ToT average for the reporting month was 11.1 Kgs of wheat flour. The average of this ToT slightly deteriorated by 3.3% from August to September 2013. The reason for deterioration was decreased labor wage (by 4%).

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Compared to the same month one year ago (September 2012), this ToT significantly deteriorated by 12.4%, mainly related to decreased labor wage (by 7%) and increased wheat flour price (by 3.8%).

On the two years comparison (September 2011), this ToT significantly deteriorated by 14.6%.

Compared to the 5-year average of the same months (September 2008-2012), this ToT improved by 5%.

Sheep and Wheat (ToT): The Terms of Trade between a one year old female sheep and Wheat is a proxy for the purchasing capacity of those households that are mainly reliant on income from livestock (pastoralists). It says how many kilograms of Wheat can be obtained when selling a one year old female sheep.

Sheep-Wheat ToT for the reporting month was 277 Kgs of wheat against one year live female sheep. The average of this ToT slightly deteriorated by 3.5% from August to September 2013. Main reason for deterioration was a slightly decreased Sheep price (by 2%) and increased Wheat price (by 1.8%).

Compared to the same month one year ago (September 2012), this ToT slightly deteriorated by 6.4%.

On the two years comparison (September 2011), this ToT significantly improved by 11.7%.

Compared to 5-year average of the same months (September 2008-2012), this ToT significantly improved by 14%.

Sheep and Wheat Flour (ToT): The Terms of Trade between a one year old female sheep and Wheat Flour is a proxy for the purchasing capacity of those households that are mainly reliant on income from livestock (pastoralists). It says how many kilograms of Wheat Flour can be obtained when selling a one year old female sheep.

Sheep-Wheat Flour ToT for the reporting month was 209 Kgs of wheat flour against one-year live female sheep. The average of this ToT slightly deteriorated by 2.2%. This deterioration is the result of slightly decreased sheep price (by 2%).

Compared to the same month one year ago (September 2012), this ToT slightly deteriorated by 3.3%.

On the two years comparison (September 2011), this ToT slightly improved by 3%.

Compared to 5-year average of the same months (September 2008-2012), this ToT significantly improved by 12.3%. Retail Price of Wheat Grain in Main Urban Cities:

The monthly average price of wheat in main urban markets of Afghanistan was 21.5 Afs/Kg in September 2013. Compared to

the past month (August 2013), the average price slightly increased by 1.8%. The highest increase occurred in Hirat (7.3%) and Kandahar (5.9%). Main reason for the increase was a seasonal increase usually happened during post- harvesting time. The variation in other main cities was within a normal limit (-2.2% - 1.4%).

Compared to the same month one year ago (September 2012), the average price significantly increased by 10.3%. The highest increase occurred in Kandahar (27.8%), followed by Nili (12.1%), Jalalabad (11.1%) and Faizabad (10%). The variation in other main cities was normal (0% - 9.8%).

On the two year comparison (September 2011), the average price was slightly higher by 5.5%.

Compared to the last 5-year average price of the same months (September 2008-2012), the price was stable (increased by 0.7%).

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Retail Price of Wheat Flour in Main Urban Cities:

The monthly average price of wheat flour in

main urban markets was 28.3 Afs/Kg in the reporting month (September 2013). The average price was slightly decreased by 0.9% compare to the previous month (August 2013). The variation in all main cities was normal (-3.7% - 0.5%), except Jalalabad witnessed a 6.6% increase.

Compared to the same month one year ago (September 2012), the current average price slightly increased by 3.8%. The highest increase was noticed in Kandahar (19.5%), Maimana (14%) and Jalalabad (10.9%). Main reason for the increase was increased imported Wheat flour price in regional markets and depreciation of Afghan currency against US dollar. While, a significant decrease occurred only in Nili (10.9%), and main reason for the decrease was decreased demand by consumers for high price Wheat flour. The variation in other main cities was normal (-3.5% - 6.8%).

Compared to the same month two years ago (September 2011), the average price of Wheat Flour slightly increased by 8.1%. Compared to 5-year average price of the same months (September 2008-2012), the average price slightly increased by 2.8%. Retail Price of Rice (High Quality) in Main Urban Cities:

The monthly average price of Rice (High Quality) was 88.1 Afs/Kg in the reporting month (September 2013) which is 1.2% lower

than the previous month (August 2013). Main reason for the decrease was maintained supply of Rice from Pakistan. The variation in other main cities was normal (-3% - 2%).

Compared to the same month one year ago (September 2012), the average price significantly increased by 21.1%. Main reason for the increase was increased Rice price in neighbouring countries and depreciation of Afghan currency against US dollar.

Compared to the same month two years ago (September 2011), the average price significantly increased by 52.3%.

Compared to 5-year average price of the some months (September 2008-2012), the average price significantly increased by 33.9%.

Retail Price of Rice (Low Quality) in Main Urban Cities:

The monthly average price of Rice (Low Quality)

was 46.2 Afs/Kg in the reporting month (September 2013) which was slightly decreased by 0.9% compared to the previous month (August 2013). The highest decrease occurred only in Maimana (6%). Main reason for the decrease was maintained supply of Rice from Pakistan. The variation in other main cities was normal (-3% – 3%).

Compared to the same month one year ago (September 2012), the average price significantly increased by 13%. Main reason for the increase was increased Rice price in neighboring markets and depreciation of Afghan currency against US dollars.

Compared to the same month two years ago (September 2011), the average price significantly increased by 40%. Compared to 5-year average price of same months (September 2008-2012), the average price significantly increased by 25.2%.

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Retail Price of Cooking Oil in Main Urban Cities:

The monthly average price of Cooking Oil was 82.3 Afs/Kg in the reporting month (September 2013) which was slightly

increased by 1% compare to the previous month (August 2013). Main reason for the increase was depreciation of Afghan currency against US dollar. The variation in other main cities was normal (-1% - 4%).

Compared to the same month one year ago (September 2012), the average price slightly varied within a normal limit (5% decreased). The highest decrease occurred in Hirat and Mazar (12%), and Kandahar (11%). Main reason for the decrease was maintained supply of Cooking Oil from Pakistan. The variation in other main cities was normal (-9% to 4%).

Compared to the same month two years ago (September 2011), the average price slightly decreased by 7%. Compared to 5-year average of the same months (September 2008 – 2012), the average price increased by 7%.

Market Watch:

Source: WFP/VAM market data from Afghanistan main cities (Kabul, Kandahar, Mazar, Jalalabad, Faizabad, Hirat, Maimana and Nili) Vulnerability Analysis and Mapping (VAM) – World Food Programme (WFP), Afghanistan