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Indonesia Economic Outlook 2016: Optimis namun tetap Waspada
Office of Chief EconomistPT. Bank Mandiri, Tbk
Jakarta, 3 Maret 2016
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Division
© PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk.
Topik Bahasan
• Kemana arah ekonomi global?
• Ekonomi Indonesia akan terus tumbuh?
• Perkembangan APBN: Menunggu akselerasi belanja pemerintah
2
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Kemana arah ekonomi global?
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© PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk.
Office of Chief Economist
* Difference from October 2015 WEO projections
ASEAN-5 includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam
Sumber: International Monetary Fund, January 2016
Jan 2016 WEO
Area 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015P 2016 % Δ* 2017 % Δ*
World 5.1 3.9 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.1 3.4 -0.2 3.6 -0.2
US 2.4 1.8 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.6 -0.2 2.6 -0.2
Euro Area 2.0 1.5 -0.7 -0.4 0.9 1.5 1.7 0.1 1.7 0.0
Japan 4.5 -0.6 1.5 1.6 0.0 0.6 1.0 0.0 0.3 -0.1
UK 1.8 1.0 0.3 1.7 2.9 2.2 2.2 0.0 2.2 0.0
China 10.4 9.3 7.7 7.7 7.3 6.9 6.3 0.0 6.0 0.0
India 10.1 6.3 4.7 6.9 7.3 7.3 7.5 0.0 7.5 0.0
Russia 4.3 4.3 3.4 1.3 0.6 -3.7 -1.0 -0.4 1.0 0.0
ASEAN-5 7.0 4.5 6.2 5.1 4.6 4.7 4.8 -0.1 5.1 -0.2
Volatilitas masih cukup tinggi: IMF kembali menurunkan proyeksi pertumbuhan ekonomi global ke 3.4% dari 3.6% pada 2016
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Note: P = Prediction, * = Preliminary Sumber: IMF
(10) – 1.0
1.0 – 3.0
3.0 – 5.0
5.0 – 7.0
7.0 – 10
(% YoY)
Russia2016: -1.02017: 1.0
US2016: 2.62017: 2.6
ASEAN-52016: 4.82017: 5.1
India2016: 7.52017: 7.5
Japan2016: 1.02017: 0.3
Euro Zone2016: 1.72017: 1.7
WORLD2016: 3.42017: 3.6
7
Negara-negara produsen komoditas seperti Rusia dan Brazil kemungkinan masih akan mengalami kontraksi pada tahun 2016 dan 2017
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31.87 34.13
63.29
48.3%
-11.4%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Jan-
14
Feb-
14
Mar
-14
Apr-
14
May
-14
Jun-
14
Jul-1
4
Aug-
14
Sep-
14
Oct
-14
Nov
-14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-
15
May
-15
Jun-
15
Jul-1
5
Aug-
15
Sep-
15
Oct
-15
Nov
-15
Dec-
15
Jan-
16
Trade Balance (USD bn) LHS Export Growth (RHS)
Kinerja ekspor China cenderung memburuk, hal ini turut berpengaruh kepada aktivitas ekonomi global
Sumber: CEIC
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7Source: CEIC, Bank Mandiri
Dampak China sangat besar terhadap Indonesia
GDP Sensitivity of ASEAN Countries to Major economies (%)
CountryElastici
ty
1.72 1.45 2.15
1.10 0.81 0.90
0.88 0.77 0.85
0.60 0.49 0.27
0.05 0.06 0.11
note: every 1% decrease in China’s GDP, Indonesia’s GDP will decrease 0.11%;every 1% decrease in US’s GDP, Indonesia’s GDP will decrease 0.05%
1 Japan (11.9%)
Singapore (14.0%)
USA(5.8%)
Japan (21.1%)
2 USA (10.7%)
China (13.2%)
China (5.7%)
USA (15.1%)
3 China (9.7%)
Japan (9.6%)
Hong Kong (2.8%)
China (11.4%)
4 Singapore (8.4%)
USA (9.5%)
Malaysia (2.5%)
Hong Kong (10.3%)
5 India (7.8%)
Thailand (5.8%)
Australia (2.3%)
Singapore (6.1%)
Export to GDP 22% 73% 78% 55%
China is the main export destination for ASEAN countries (% of GDP)
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Harga komoditas global menurun sejak tahun 2014, beberapa komoditas sedikit membaik pada tahun 2016
2014: -32%2015: -44%2016: -11%
2014: -18%2015: -29%2016: 0.2%
2014: -20%2015: -13%2016: +15%
2014: -38%2015: -26%2016: +1.8%
2014: -29%2015: -39%2016: -21%
WTI Crude Oil USD 31.1/bbl
Brent Crude Oil USD 30.8/bbl
CoalUSD 46.2/MT
CPOUSD 600/MT
RubberUSD 1.2/Kg
Sumber: Bloomberg (per 15 Februari 2016, %YTD)
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© PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk.
Office of Chief Economist
Monthly Macroeconomic Booklet - March 2016
Pertumbuhan ekspor terus melemah sepanjang 2015 yang lalu
Source: Bloomberg
(IDR bn)
56
0.05
10.5 10.4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20Ja
n-10
Apr-
10Ju
l-10
Oct
-10
Jan-
11Ap
r-11
Jul-1
1O
ct-1
1Ja
n-12
Apr-
12Ju
l-12
Oct
-12
Jan-
13Ap
r-13
Jul-1
3O
ct-1
3Ja
n-14
Apr-
14Ju
l-14
Oct
-14
Jan-
15Ap
r-15
Jul-1
5O
ct-1
5Ja
n-16
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Trade Balance - RHS
Export - LHS
Import - LHS
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© PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk.10
Ekspor mainan Indonesia melemah signifikan pada 2015 sebesar 15,6%
Ekspor –impor mainan Indonesia (2007-2014)
(USD mn) 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 (%YoY)
Export 251.5 368.2 360.0 451.2 545.1 512.1 432.1 (15.6)
Import 110.2 167.2 200.0 250.9 232.3 159.1 156.0 (2.0)
Trade Balance 141.4 201.0 160.1 200.3 312.8 353.0 276.1 (21.8)
Sumber: BPS
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© PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk.11
Surplus perdagangan mainan Indonesia turun ke USD276.1 mn pada 2015
Trade Balance
Sumber: BPS
(USD mn)
432.
1
512.
1
545.
1
451.
2
360.
0
368.
2
156.
0
159.
1
232.
3
250.
9
200.
0
167.
2
276.1
353.0312.8
200.3
160.1201.0
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400Export Import TB
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© PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk.12
Tujuan ekspor mainan utama Indonesia adalah AS (35,8%) dan China merupakan negara pengekspor mainan terbesar ke Indonesia (60.6%) pada 2014
Negara utama tujuan ekspor mainan Indonesia
Negara utama asal impor mainan Indonesia
Sumber: Intracen
No. Negara Value % YoY % thd Total
1. US 183.4 (3.7) 35.8
2. UK 48.3 11.4 9.4
3. Japan 31.2 6.9 6.1
4. Singapore 27.7 (18.0) 5.4
5. Germany 23.1 (1.7) 4.5
(USD mn) (USD mn)
No. Negara Value % YoY % thd Total
1. China 96.5 (39.2) 60.6
2. Japan 9.1 (8.9) 5.7
3. Malaysia 9.0 43.0 5.7
4. Taipei, Chinese 4.9 (18.7) 3.1
5. HK 4.7 (42.5) 3.0
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© PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk.13
Tricycles, scooters, pedal cars and similar wheeled toys adalah jenis mainan utama predagangan luar negeri Indonesia pada 2014
Jenis mainan utama ekspor mainan Indonesia
Jenis mainan utama impor mainan Indonesia
Sumber: Intracen
No. Jenis Value % YoY % thd Total
1.Tricycles, scooters, pedal cars
391.8 (8.7) 76.5
2. Golf balls 25.2 15.6 4.9
3. Fishing rods 20.0 16.2 3.9
4.Equip for sports and outdoor games
18.3 (4.3) 3.6
5. Inflatable balls 17.5 (12.9) 3.4
(USD mn) (USD mn)
No. Jenis Value % YoY % thd Total
1.Tricycles, scooters, pedal cars
67.4 (42.1) 42.4
2.Gymnasium or athletics articles and equipment
27.7 (15.4) 17.4
3. Games, coin or disc-operated 8.8 (3.6) 5.5
4.Roundabouts, swings, shooting galleries
5.7 (35.9) 3.6
5.Equip for sports and outdoor games
5.5 (10.9) 3.5
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Rupiah bergerak cukup stabil karena ekspektasi perbaikan ekonomi domestik dan masuknya aliran modal asing
Sumber: Bloomberg
Currencies against USD(% ytd)
depreciateappreciate
Updated 15 Februari 2016
depreciateappreciate
IDR against others (% ytd)
0.3%
-3.3%
-0.1%
-1.0%
0.7%
1.4%
1.3%
2.8%
1.8%
2.5%
2.6%
2.9%
-5.3%
-3.6%
-2.9%
-1.2%
-0.9%
0.1%
0.8%
1.0%
1.3%
2.9%
3.0%
5.3%
Japan
Malaysia
Indonesia
Thailand
Singapore
China
Turki
Brazil
Philippines
Korea
India
Rusia
Feb 16 YTD
Jan 16 YTD
-6.8%
-2.0%
1.2%
-0.2%
0.1%
-1.3%
-1.4%
-5.6%
-0.7%
-1.0%
-2.3%
1.1%
4.2%
-4.9%
-3.0%
-2.9%
-2.6%
-2.4%
-2.1%
-2.0%
-1.9%
-1.4%
-1.0%
-0.9%
0.0%
3.2%
RussiaIndiaUSD
Hong KongThailand
PhilippinesMalaysiaAustralia
ChinaSingapore
BrazilEuro
Japan
Feb 16 YTDJan 16 YTD
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Berdasarkan REER Rupiah masih undervalued
Source: BIS, last updated Desember 2015
130.3
110
103
89.8
82.6
71.767.8
80.1
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Jan
-10
May
-10
Sep
-10
Jan
-11
May
-11
Sep
-11
Jan
-12
May
-12
Sep
-12
Jan
-13
May
-13
Sep
-13
Jan
-14
May
-14
Sep
-14
Jan
-15
May
-15
Sep
-15
REER, 2010 = 100
China Indonesia Korea
Russia ASEAN-5 ex Indonesia Fragile-5 ex Indonesia
Brazil Turkey
Appreciate
Depreciate
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Ekonomi Indonesia akan terus tumbuh?
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Ekonomi Indonesia 4Q15 didukung oleh kenaikan investasi dan pengeluaran pemerintah
Investasi dan pengeluaran pemerintah tumbuh lebih tinggi dibandingkan kuarta sebelumnya
PDB Indonesia tumbuh 5.04% pada 4Q15 lebih tinggi dari 3Q15 yang sebesar 4,73% (YoY)
Sumber: BPS
6.48
6.27
6.01
5.94 6.
11 6.21
5.94
5.87
5.61
5.59
5.5 5.
615.
145.
034.
92 5.01
4.71
4.67 4.73
5.04
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
4Q15
2.8 3.0
2.9
2.8
2.8
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7 2.9
1.3 1.4 1.11.5 1.61.7
-1.83
4.795.02 4.734.674.72
5.586.036.17
(3)(2)(1)-1234567
2011
2012
2013
2014
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
4Q15
Household Government Gross Fixed Capital Formation Net ExportNon-profit institutions GDP Growth(ppt)
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Sumber: BPS
Expenditure (YoY, %) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 2016F
Household expenditure 5.1 5.5 5.4 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
Non-profit institutions serving household expenditure 5.5 6.7 8.2 12.4 -6.3 -8.3 -7.9 6.4 8.3
Government Expenditure 5.5 4.5 6.9 2.0 5.4 2.2 2.3 6.6 7.3 5.0
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 8.9 9.1 5.3 4.1 5.1 4.4 3.6 4.6 6.9 4.8
Exports 14.8 1.6 4.7 1.0 -2.0 -0.5 -0.1 -0.7 -6.4 3.5
Less imports 15.0 8.0 1.9 2.2 -5.8 -2.2 -6.9 -6.1 -8.1 3.8
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 6.17 6.03 5.58 5.02 4.79 4.71 4.67 4.73 5.04 5.0
PDB Indonesia 2015 tumbuh 4,79% lebih baik dari perkiraan sebesar 4,74% (YoY)
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© PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk.
Office of Chief Economist
Dari sisi wilayah, Kawasan Timur Indonesia mencatat pertumbuhan yang tinggi dimana Provinsi NTB dan Sulawesi Tengah tumbuh dua digit
Sumber: BPS
Pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia per provinsi, 2015 (% yoy)
PDB 2015: 4.79% YoY
Sumut5.1
Riau-0.1
Kepri5.2
Sumbar5.3
Jambi4.7
Bengkulu5.2
Sumsel4.6
Babel4.1
Lampung5.1
DKI6.7Jabar
5.0
Jateng5.4
DIY4.9
Jatim5.5
Bali6.1 NTB
17.8 NTT5.0
Kalbar4.4
Kalteng7.0
Kaltim-1.4
Kalsel3.8
Sulut6.2Gorontalo
6.2
Sulteng15.9
Sulbar7.5
Sulsel6.8
Sultra7.0
Malut6.2
Maluku5.4
Pabar4.4
Papua8.0
Aceh-0.7
> 7%5.5% - 7%4% - 5.49%<4%
Banten5.3
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Beberapa indikator menunjukkan arah yang positif
20
Confidence among consumers and producers have picked up recently
Source: CEIC
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Jan
-10
May
-10
Sep
-10
Jan
-11
May
-11
Sep
-11
Jan
-12
May
-12
Sep
-12
Jan
-13
May
-13
Sep
-13
Jan
-14
May
-14
Sep
-14
Jan
-15
May
-15
Sep
-15
Consumer Confidence Index
Consumer confidence indexPresent SituationExpectationsOptimism level
95
100
105
110
Mar
-10
Jun
-10
Sep
-10
Dec
-10
Mar
-11
Jun
-11
Sep
-11
Dec
-11
Mar
-12
Jun
-12
Sep
-12
Dec
-12
Mar
-13
Jun
-13
Sep
-13
Dec
-13
Mar
-14
Jun
-14
Sep
-14
Dec
-14
Mar
-15
Jun
-15
Sep
-15
Business Tendency Index
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Perkembangan APBN: Menunggu akselerasi belanja pemerintah
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A. PENDAPATAN NEGARA 1.761,6 50,5 2,9 1.822,5 51,7 2,8
I. PENDAPATAN DALAM NEGERI 1.758,3 50,5 2,9 1.820,5 51,7 2,81. Penerimaan Perpajakan 1.489,3 47,4 3,2 1.546,7 46,4 3,0
2. Penerimaan Negara Bukan Pajak 269,1 3,1 1,1 273,8 5,3 1,9
II. PENERIMAAN HIBAH 3,3 0,0 0,0 2,0 0,0 1,8
B.BELANJA NEGARA 1.984,1 55,6 2,8 2.095,7 65,9 3,1I. BELANJA PEMERINTAH PUSAT 1.319,5 26,2 2,0 1.325,6 29,6 2,2
1. Belanja K/L 795,5 10,0 1,3 784,1 9,2 1,2
2. Belanja non K/L 524,1 16,3 3,1 541,4 20,4 3,8
II. TRANSFER KE DAERAH DAN DANA DESA 664,6 29,3 4,4 770,2 36,3 4,71. Transfer ke Daerah 643,8 29,3 4,6 723,2 36,3 5,02. Dana Desa 20,8 0,0 0,0 47,0 0,0 0,0
C.KESEIMBANGAN PRIMER (66,8) 4,9 (7,4) (88,2) (1,0) 1,1D.SURPLUS/ (DEFISIT) ANGGARAN (A - B) (222,5) (5,1) 2,3 (273,2) (14,2) 5,2
% Surplus/ (Defisit) Terhadap PDB (1,90) (0,04) (2,15) (0,11)
E. PEMBIAYAAN ANGGARAN (I + II) 222,5 13,3 6,0 273,2 55,6 20,3
I. PEMBIAYAAN DALAM NEGERI 242,5 14,5 6,0 272,8 56,7 20,8II. PEMBIAYAAN LUAR NEGERI (neto) (20,0) (1,2) 5,9 0,4 (1,2) (297,0)KELEBIHAN/(KEKURANGAN) PEMBIAYAAN ANGGARAN 0,0 8,3 0,0 41,3
2015 2016
APBN Realisasi s.d 15 Jan
% thd APBN
Realisasi s.d 15 Jan
% thd APBNPAPBNP
Uraian(trililun rupiah)
22
Postur Realisasi APBN 2016
Source: Materi Presentasi Kepala BKF Kementrian Keuangan
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23
EDUCATION 28.3%
INFRASTRUCTURE 103.5%
ENERGY SUBSIDY 60.7%
HEALTH75.4%
Comparison between average allocation in 2015 - 2016 and 2011 - 2014
…realokasi perbaikan profil belanja pemerintah, didukung oleh modernisasi cara belanja secara online
Realokasi Belanja untuk Mendorong Pembangunan yang Lebih Produktif
Source: Materi Presentasi Kepala BKF Kementrian Keuangan
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24
Postur Realisasi APBN 2016
1. Transfer ke Daerah 643,8 29,3 4,6 723,2 36,3 5,0a. Dana Perimbangan 521,8 29,3 5,6 700,4 36,3 5,2
1) Dana Transfer Umum 462,9 29,3 6,3 491,5 36,3 7,4a) Dana Bagi Hasil 110,1 0,0 0,0 106,1 4,3 4,0b) Dana Alokasi Umum 352,9 29,3 8,3 385,4 32,1 8,3
2) Dana Transfer Khusus 58,8 0,0 0,0 208,9 0,0 0,0b. Dana Insentif Daerah 1,7 0,0 0,0 5,0 0,0 0,0c. Dana Otonomi Khusus dan Dana Keistimewaan D.I.Y. 17,7 0,0 0,0 17,8 0,0 0,0d. Dana Transfer Lainnya 102,7 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0
2. Dana Desa 20,8 0,0 0,0 47,0 0,0 0,0
664,6 29,3 4,4 770,2 36,3 4,7
APBN Realisasi s.d 15 Jan
% thd APBN
2015 2016
Realisasi s.d 15 Jan
% thd APBNP
TOTAL
APBNPTransfer ke Daerah dan Dana Desa
(triliun rupiah)
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Bagaimana dengan arah suku bunga?
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26Source: CEIC
Indonesia’s real interest rate will likely remain competitive at 2%
Year end inflation is expected to pick up on manageable pace while average inflation is expected to go down
Kami perkirakan BI akan menurunkan suku bunga ke 6,5% di 2016Inflasi mungkin di kisaran 4% - 4,5%
0
4
8
12
16
20
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Inflation (%)
eop (%)
average (%)
1.12.4
-4
0
4
8
12
16
20
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
BI rate and Inflation Real interest rate (%) Average inflation (%)Average BI rate
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27Source: CEIC, Mandiri Sekuritas estimate
Jika global oil price masih di kisaran USD30 per barel maka ada ruang bagi pemerintah untuk menurunkan lagi harga BBM
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28Source: CEIC, Bloomberg
Indonesia’s nominal and real interest rate will remain the top three among peers
The interest rate differential (BI rate – Fed Fund rate) is expected to remain in line at 600bps
Interest rate differential akan tetap menarik (asumsi BI rate 7.0% dan FFR menjadi 1% - 1.25%)
-2-10123456789
Jan-
10Ju
n-10
Nov-
10Ap
r-11
Sep-
11Fe
b-12
Jul-1
2De
c-12
May
-13
Oct
-13
Mar
-14
Aug-
14Ja
n-15
Jun-
15No
v-15
Apr-
16Se
p-16
BI rate vs Fed Fund Rateinverted FFRBI rateSpread BI rate - FFR
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29Source: Bloomberg
Beberapa EM di downgrade menjadi faktor positif buat Indonesia
Oct-94 BB Feb-06 BB- May-02 BB- Mar-98 B-May-00 BB+ Jun-06 BB May-03 BB+ Aug-02 BJun-00 BBB- May-07 BB+ Nov-04 BBB- Nov-03 B+
May-03 BBB May-08 BBB- Aug-05 BBB Jan-05 BB-Aug-05 BBB+ Apr-11 BBB Jul-06 BBB+ Feb-08 BBJan-13 BBB Oct-15 BBB- Feb-09 BBB Jan-10 BB+Dec-15 BBB- Dec-15 BB+ Jan-15 BBB- Dec-11 BBB-
Fitch ratingSouth Africa Brazil Russia Indonesia
Indonesia’s CDS is lower compared to peer countries… …whereas Indonesia’s credit rating remains solid amid rating downgrade on Brazil, Russia, and South Africa
last year
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Apa saja resiko di depan?
30
The Fed increases its rate > 1.25%
China’s economic growth experiences hard landing
(growth < 6%)
A big shortfall on government revenue
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Macroeconomic forecasts
31
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F
Real GDP (%, yoy) 6.0 5.6 5.0 4.7 * 5.0 5.4
Rp/US$ (avg) 9,380 10,452 11,878 13,458 14,150 13,950
Rp/US$ (eop) 9,670 12,189 12,440 13,795 14,300 13,700
BI rate (%, eop) 5.80 7.50 7.80 7.50 7.00 6.75CPI inflation (%, yoy, eop) 3.7 8.1 8.4 3.4 5.0 5.0
CAD (% of GDP) -2.8 -3.2 -3 -2.0 * -2.4 -2.8
Source: CEIC, Mandiri Group estimate
* The figures will be announced Feb16
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32
Terimakasih