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![Page 1: 1 From “Walled Gardens” into the “Telecom Chaos” Key trends in Contemporary Communication Systems Jens Zander Director, Wireless@KTH Royal Institute of.](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062516/56649db15503460f94aa08ce/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
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From “Walled Gardens” into the “Telecom Chaos”
Key trends in Contemporary Communication Systems
Jens ZanderDirector, Wireless@KTH
Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm
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Outline – Technology track
• Key trends and challenges (JZ)• Key area: Infrastructure (Jan Markendahl)
– Mobile Broadband and the ”Revenue Gap” (”teaser” today)
• Key area: Services & user behavior (Zary Segall)– What would Google do ?
• Meeting 2: Networks & Services (Gerald Maguire)• Meeting 3: Personal logistics & Terminals (Mark
Smith)• Meeting 4: Infrastructure deployment (Jan
Markendahl)
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Part I:Key challenges & trends
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Trend 1:
Much more for (even) less
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The Long term Vision: Wireless - A “Disappearing”
TechnologyPenetration
Time
Exclusive
”Everyone” has it
Vanishing (”Hidden”) technology
”Things that communicate”Personal & homenetworks
Mobile access anytime – anywhere
1 device/person 10 devices/person 100-1000 devices/person
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Trend 1: (Much) More for lessFirst fixed IP access – then mobile
access
Vision 2000• Mobile Web-browsing – the
multimedia service platform• Interactive information services• Streaming audio/video• Rich exponentially growing content
• Adapted to small terminals
+ Location & context aware services+ Same price as mobile telephony TODAYs reality:• Same price as home-ADSL • Mobile telephony prices
dropping• Take-off was delayed – but
happening now
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Traffic volumes rapidly increasing
• Flat rate tariffs create data traffic boom
• Typical users:– EDGE 50 MB/month– HSPA 800 MB/month
• Revenues are not following. Example:Data traffic + 300%Revenues +11%
Traffic
Revenue
TimeVoice dominated Data dominated
Revenue gap
Volume
(”major operator data”)
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Why is it so expensive ?
• High bandwidth• Wide Area• High speed mobility &
lossless handover• Real time/low delay
1 Mbit/s at GSM service quality 50-100 times more expensive
)(QfABN
Cserviceuser
user
system
The 4 cost drivers
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The street light analogy
Why are parts of Sweden dark at night ?– Technical limitations ?– User demand ?– Economical limitations ?
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Trend 2:
Bits are just bits and can be produced anywhere –
now also in the mobile domain!
Services provided by anyone- except the network operator ?
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Open IP access- ”Intelligence Outside”
”Dumb”IP-
connectivity
”Dumb”IP-
connectivity
”Intelligent Network” IMS
”Intelligent Network” IMS
Service 1
Service 2Service 3 Service n
Content provider
UserTerminal
Service 1
Service 2
Service 3
Service n
Content provider
User Terminal
• High QoS• Simple Terminals• Low flexibility• High cost• Required for new demanding applications
• End-end principle• Best effort• High flexibility• Low cost• Mature application platforms
The Walled Garden The Outback
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Computing in the cloud
Arbitrary distribution and physical location of resources:
– Computation– Storage– Sensors – ….
”Infinite” bandwidth
Services not tied to neither networks nor access
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The changing value chainAffecting industry players
Telcooperatorvendors
consumers
’90s and before
today and the future
Telcooperatorvendors
evolved users
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Mobile services .. ”over the top”
• Sufficient mobile bandwidth:
• Services ”over the top” (IP)
• No need for networked services
• New Actors:– Apple (Appstore)– Google (Android Market)
• New Service paradigm– Try & Buy
• Death of SMS, Voice ..?(Google Talk ?)
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Some consequences: Mobile TV
• Mobile TV –– Operator provided service– Streaming– Real-time– Existing TV-content
is dead !
• Personal Multi Media– Individual personalized content– Non-real time – on demand– Time-shifting
is ”out there” and lives - but without access operator intervention!
Mobile
TVISDN WAP
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Questions for discussions
• Where is TS going in mobile ?
– High quality bit-pipe provider?
– Content aggregator – (e.g. Mobile entertainment) ?
– Generic IP based Services
– Business solutions ….
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Part II:Challenges and potential Showstoppers ahead ….
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The Challenges & potential ”Showstoppers”
• Spectrum• ”Shannon”• Energy• Cost• Complexity – Reliability• Legal issues• Health Hazards ?• New business models ?
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Do we need more spectrum forwireless access services ?
• Basically no: Higher data rate – short range communication
• But: More spectrum – cheaper systems – less energy
Low power
Low InfrastructureCost
SpectrumEfficiency
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Opportunistic (Overlay) Access (”Cognitive Radio”)
Dynamic Access Modes for White Space Access ?
Underlay Access (”UWB”)
Temporarly unused spectrum, ”holes”
Primary users
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Business implications ?
• From ”exclusive ownership” – to commodity
• Lower price of spectrum due to– Increased supply of spectrum– Increased interference from
secondary users
• Easier access to spectrum - more competition
• More difficult to guarantee service ?• New spectrum business models ?
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Energy
• Global scale: – Energy consumption of
IT-technology not neglectable (2% of CO2-emission)
– 3G technology example• Base station RF output (at antenna): 60 W• Power input: 6 kW (Efficiency 1%)• Reason Spectrum efficient – not power efficient
• Application scale:– More processing, more power- battery life
does not keep up– Low cost low maintenance (disposable)
devices _ extremely low power consumption
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Storage
• Mobile Storage rapidly increasing– 100KB 1TB .. and more
• Cost down– HD < 10c / GB– Flash < 1$/GB
• Always connected and everything stored centrally OR Everything in the devices ?
• New storage based internet paradigm ?
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0.1-1.0 billion of usersComplex networks Complex expensive devices
• Complex to use• Does not scale
10-100 billion of users and devicesEven more complex networks Complex but in-expensive devices
• Simple to use and deploy • Extremely reliable• Affordable for everyone
Yesterday Tomorrow
The Vision
Complexity & Reliability
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Some conclusions
• Key Opportunities:– Moore’s law keeps going: more memory, more
processing in less space– Plug-and-play / Zero configuration systems
• Key challenges:– Energy – both global and battery life– Spectrum – plenty availblable but difficult to access– Complexity – Reliability
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www.wireless.kth.se