1

Existing Homes Alliance Scotland - Green Deal Seminar

Making the Green Deal work for Scotland

Dan Barlow

WWF Scotland

2

Existing Homes Alliance Scotland - Green Deal Seminar

Key Points

•Imperative

•Upgrade challenge

•Finance

•Realising the Green Deal potential

•Supporting measures

3

Existing Homes Alliance Scotland - Green Deal Seminar

Scotland’s Climate Emissions

j

4

Existing Homes Alliance Scotland - Green Deal Seminar

Scotland’s Climate/Energy Targets

•Climate Change (Scotland) Act:

- 42% 2020

- 80% 2050

- RPP 36% homes 2020

•Energy Efficiency Action Plan:

- 12% cut by 2020

5

Existing Homes Alliance Scotland - Green Deal Seminar

Scale of challenge

6

Existing Homes Alliance Scotland - Green Deal Seminar

Scotland’s stock (EPC)

2009 A B C D E F G

Private Sector

0% 17% 45% 28% 8% 2%

Social Sector

1% 36% 50% 11% 2% 0%

7

Existing Homes Alliance Scotland - Green Deal Seminar

Cumulative installations – cavity wall

8

Existing Homes Alliance Scotland - Green Deal Seminar

Cumulative installations – solid wall

9

Existing Homes Alliance Scotland - Green Deal Seminar

Scale of measures required (indicative) - Scotland

Measure Potential 42%(%)

Cavity Wall Insulation 0.6m 100Loft Insulation/top up 1.5m 100Solid wall insulation 0.5m 44 (internal or external)Boiler upgrade 1.5m 100Solar water heating 1.8m 62Air source heat pump 0.3m 15

10

Existing Homes Alliance Scotland - Green Deal Seminar

Investment: mind the gap…

Cost: 2020 paConserve & Save (42%) £16bn £1.6bnRPP (36%)BAU/current policies £6.2bn £9.1bn? £800m+ post-CERT estimated £2.9bn (to 2022)WWF (EST) all E, F & G to D (70% of RPP) £2.45 bn £275m

Funding mechanisms:ECO £120mGovernment (e.g EAP/UHIS) £65mGreen Deal…loans…RHI??? ???

11

Existing Homes Alliance Scotland - Green Deal Seminar

Cost/benefit

Avg £270 – 40% F&G to E

Avg £3,000 – 75% E, F%G to D

Payback – less than 5 years

12

Existing Homes Alliance Scotland - Green Deal Seminar

Realising the Green Deal potential (I)

-Finance- Interest rates vs take up

- Level of ECO funding/harder to treat

- Government financial incentives to support take up

-Loft & cavity take up - Green Deal ambition rates low

- ECO exclusion – transition phase?

13

Existing Homes Alliance Scotland - Green Deal Seminar

Realising the Green Deal potential (II)

-Integration/effective models- Area based approach

- Integrating ECO/FIT/GD e.g. Birmingham/Newcastle

- Tenements/mixed stock

-Making it work for local installers/rural- Certification

- Golden Rule

14

Existing Homes Alliance Scotland - Green Deal Seminar

Wider context

- National Retrofit Programme

- Additional incentives to support take up (e.g council tax rebates)

- Minimum standards of energy performance

- Government funding (e.g EAP/UHIS)

15

Existing Homes Alliance Scotland - Green Deal Seminar

Conclusion

Lets get this right…- Climate- Health/fuel poverty - Jobs/economy

Vision of green, warm, fuel-poverty proof housing by 2020