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Transcript of 1 Evolving Asia: Growth, Challenges and Opportunities – Asia’s Search for Leadership Synergy Tan...
1
Evolving Asia: Growth, Challenges and
Opportunities – Asia’s Search for Leadership
Synergy
Tan Sri Dr. Munir Majid
Visiting Senior Fellow LSE IDEAS
and
Chairman of Malaysia Airlines
29 to 31st July 2011,
Phnom Penh, Kingdom of Cambodia
7th Asia Economic Forum
2
Asia is evolving … GDP growth outpacing the world
World GDP growth GDP growth of developing Asia
3
Share of GDP rising from 27% in 2010 to 51% in 2050
Global output (market exchange rates US$Trillions)Asian share of global outputGlobal growthAsia GrowthAsian share of global growthGlobal GDP per capita (PPP)Asian GDP per capita (PPP)
62
27.4%
10,7006,600
90
33.5%4.0%5.8%
55.7%14,30010,600
132
38.9%3.9%5.2%
59.3%19,40016,500
195
44.5%3.8%4.8%
62.8%26,60025,400
292
50.6%3.6%4.4%
66.0%36,60038,600
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Source: Centennial Group Projections 2011
4
Evolving Asia … The emerging middle class is a key driver
Source: Centennial Group Projections 2011
The middle class is the source of savings and entrepreneurship that drives new products and processes. Growth comes mainly from new products and most growth happens when new products are targeted at the middle class. Consumption by the global middle class accounts for one third of total global demand.
5
The engines of the Asian Century are the Asia-7 economies
PRC
India
Indonesia
Japan
Republic of Korea
Thailand
Malaysia
Total Asia-7
5.7
1.4
0.7
5.4
1.0
0.3
0.2
14.8
62.9
40.4
11.4
8.2
3.7
3.2
2.6
132.
4
2010 GDP (MER
trillion)
2050 GDP (MER
trillion)
MER- Market exchange rate
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, Oct 2010; Centennial Group Projections 2011
Between 2010 and 2050, they
will account for 87% of total GDP
growth in Asia and almost 55% of
global GDP growth. They will
thus be the engines of not only
Asia’s economy but also the
global economy.
6
There are mega challenges to overcome ..
• Inequities within countries (eg between the coastal and western regions of PRC)
• The risk of falling into the Middle Income Trap
• Intense competition for natural resources (energy, water, fertile land)
• Rising disparities across countries could destabilise the region
• Global warming, climate changes and natural disasters could threaten agricultural
production, coastal populations and urban areas
• Almost all countries face the challenge of governance and institutional capacities
Source: Asia 2050, Asian Development Bank 2011
7
THE END